Quote:
Originally Posted by PhillySteaks
Yet we are below 1970s job levels right? In nearly 50 years we've lost jobs - that's like...incredible, even with the growth over the past few years.
Philly will be an education and medical center - finance will remain mediocre because of the high taxes and proximity of NYC's capability to take top talent, as well as a massively deeper investor pool to raise money from. It's an international city, plain and simple. DE is also a huge suck on finance from the city due to corporate tax laws. It's why JP Morgan alone has 10-15k back office jobs just over the border in Wilmington & Newark. Those jobs pay $60k entry up to a couple $100k for senior positions. Trends I've personally witnessed were entry level kids living in the city, hitting their 30s with a higher paycheck, then moving closer to their job and exiting the city for good because they just can't take the commute anymore.
This whole thing city vs. burbs is pointless. Who cares what people think in the deep parts of the state - the ones that are eating your lunch are the mega-wealthy educated people living just over the border so they don't get a 4% pay deduction. The city budget is a black hole unfortunately with many more regressive taxes just over the horizon. If you think that the majority of people who are wealthy and highly educated won't flee that then you're in denial - it's literally been happening for decades. You can see an EXTREME drop off in population in the 30-50 age range, which are PRIME earnings years. Personally speaking I don't blame them in the slightest, how could you? It's how the free market works. If people don't like something - they'll leave. It's so easy to get in and out of the city. I love philly - but if you look at the situation in a vacuum from a purely financial viewpoint it's a no brainer to flee for the immediate surrounding burbs. Very easy to grab a room for the night and $35 uber ride when you want a night out. Everyone values things differently.
If you are single and go out regularly, yea it's probably not beneficial to move to the burbs. If you are shacked up with a husband/wife and a couple kids and don't want to pay exhobitant private school tuition along with high taxes and find yourself only going out 1 night every few weeks then yea it's way more beneficial to be in the burbs and locate near a train station for easy access.
What absolutely worries me the most about Philly is the millennials. The largest generation in US history is approaching their 30s, which just so happens to be the age people statistically leave cities. On top of that the majority of the philly inflow of millennials over the past few years grew up in the philly burbs. These are kids who grew up with backyards, bike trails, hide and go seek, etc. - not traditional city folks, so they're already biased. If and when that generation moves into their 30s, and the bulk of that group should be 5-7 years from now, are they going to want the same things for their kids? Sure they'll buy their first home here, but their second? I don't know the answer to that, but it scares the begeesus out of me. Furthermore if they do move out, the type of job growth the city needs to sustain that loss is no where near optimal output. The city can effectively offset that migration if they grow jobs here and bring in immigrants and people from all over the country to fill those positions - right now that's not happening at the velocity that needs to occur to offset the potential risk of a 30yr old's potential exodus.
|
As a millennial with a family, I just want to provide my two cents. I grew up in the country (with the bike trails and large yard you mention) and my wife the suburbs (ick). Growing up I spent a lot of time around Ithaca, the finger lakes and the Adirondacks. Beautiful places. The thought of leaving the city makes us ill. Sure all that stuff is nice (except the lawn, the lawn I’d give up in a second), but we have some pretty amazing cultural institutions that I didn’t have access to growing up. Also, the park system is great, there are tons of restaurants (even if we don’t get out that much), shopping and events (the holidays are a lot of fun in the city, especially with a kid). We still have access to nature, just in an urban setting. That kind of makes it more interesting in my opinion. Also, if we really want to go to a more natural/expansive region, then we can drive there. The same process we’d probably need to go through if we lived in a suburban or rural setting.
While jobs are definitely important, a lot of families we know living in the city (also Millennials) already have decent-paying reliable jobs. As long as the Philadelphia region is able to continue its job growth at a reasonable rate and able to absorb the people moving into the city, then I don’t think that’s really an issue. If the city has lost jobs when compared to the distant past, then it has also lost population. The main thing seems to be that both continue to grow in moderation. Downtown jobs are definitely preferred (being able to walk to work is amazing), but even reverse commuting is acceptable provided that the office is accessible by train. Millennials for the most part don’t really value driving that much. I personally hate it.
I think the top things Millennials in the city are concerned about, when you throw children into the mix, is the state of education and also safety. We have discussed the suburbs in relation to the education issue (which is really are largest concern right now), but our desire to stay in a vibrant and diverse urban environment is winning the argument. Even if we opt to send our child to a private or parochial school in a couple years, paying the tuition doesn’t seem too big of a deal if we are able to afford it. Of course we hope the Philly public schools improve (I know some of the top-rated public schools in the country are in the city), but it’s fairly difficult getting into the really good ones and I don’t know that the rest will be improved enough by the time we would need them. We’re still watching that closely.
The city has made a lot of improvement regarding crime over the last decade and for the most part we feel very safe. However, there are a lot of drug dealers in our neighborhood (something we care much more about now that we have a child) and from time to time there are shootings (this is very uncommon, but it happened that there were 3 yesterday in our neighborhood, all drug related). I don’t know what can be done about this though; it’s hard to accept that crime is just a part of city living, since there are many cities in Europe, Asia, Australia, Canada and I’m sure elsewhere with much lower crime rates. For whatever reasons, cities in the US tend to have higher crime rates.
As far as our 2nd house, I’d definitely buy in Philly again or even build up. I can also say that most Millennials I know also don’t value huge houses that much and are more about efficiency/practicality and are fine with a home on the smaller side (we’ve got a two br/1 bath that is so far working fine). Things that would force us out of the city would be if all hell breaks loose/a reverse in Philadelphia’s upward trend. I think that Philadelphia will retain a lot of its Millennial population though.