Home prices jumped 40 per cent in Vancouver so where are all the cranes?
NATALIE OBIKO PEARSON
Bloomberg News
Published Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2016 1:53PM EST
Last updated Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2016 2:01PM EST
When something becomes more expensive, people will produce more of it. According to that pillar of Econ 101, new homes should be springing up all over Vancouver. Which they aren’t.
The property market on Canada’s west coast is one of the world’s hottest, or most unhinged, depending on your perspective. From local tech whizzkids to wealthy Chinese scouting for safe havens, and other investors just seeking returns on a quick flip, demand for Vancouver houses seems endless. Meanwhile, thanks to strict land-use rules and lobbying by existing homeowners, supply has stalled.
“When you have a 40 per cent increase in prices in a year, the skyline should be absolutely saturated with cranes,” said Thomas Davidoff, head of the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate. “That’s not what you see in Vancouver.”
What you see instead is the shortest list of homes for sale in almost a decade, even as the price of a typical single-family home surged to $1.5-million, about 20 times what the median household earns in a year.
Wrong Direction?
Vancouver isn’t the only place in the world, or even in Canada, where house prices have soared beyond the reach of residents: it’s happening in the global economy’s poster-towns, like London and San Francisco, and in less-feted Auckland, Stockholm and Toronto too. A common thread that links such cities is curbs on the availability of land for building. Yet as the Vancouver boom turned into a crisis of affordability, and authorities moved to tackle the problem, housing supply wasn’t the direction they were looking.
In August, the province of British Columbia imposed a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers, and in October the federal government tightened rules on mortgage eligibility. Those steps had some success in cooling the market – but not in a good way, according to Cameron Muir, chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association. That’s because measures aimed at capping demand also send a signal to developers and builders to slow down, he said.
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