Speech pattern and typographical variations across Canada

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ue

I'm not sure if there's a better thread for this so...

I'm a bit curious about the Anglophone population of Quebec City. The story usually focuses on the larger Anglo population in Montreal and the subsequent mass exodus starting in the '70s. All I've read about it in QC is that it was smaller, albeit significant (a lot of Old Quebec's buildings were built by the English) but that over time, the Anglos in Quebec City were assimilated into the Francophone population.

I'm curious of why things played out differently in Quebec City. In Montreal, rather than assimilating, Anglos left, or defiantly stood their ground, perhaps learning French over time, but still speaking in English at home. Was it simply that QC's Anglos were smaller in number, perhaps more isolated from English Canada? Are there any "Anglo" strongholds in the city, like Montreal's Mile-End?

I've spent the last week on vacation in the Quebec City area and can tell you what I observed and learned after asking some people. Acajack is accurate with what he wrote.

There are a number of anglophones in a few towns Northwest of the city. The towns of Saint-Gabriel de Valcartier and Shannon have many bilingual signs which is unusual for the region. The signs weren't just federal and municipal ones but also on many private businesses. Those towns have CFB Valcartier which likely helps with the bilingualism being encouraged and tolerated. Someone told me that about 15% of the residents speak mainly English at home in the area and that the towns offer bilingual services even though they don't really have to under Quebec law. I noticed many Irish family names on street signs and mailboxes.

[ue]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The anglo community did not really assimilate to a significant degree in Quebec City. Though some did, it is true - but some did and do in Montreal too even. The anglo community in Quebec City mostly declined due to outmigration, either to Montreal or other parts of Canada and the U.S. And this outmigration began and reached it peak long before the Quiet Revolution and the rise of separatism.

There are no true anglo enclaves in Quebec City as there are in Montreal, but historically there were quite a few in the posh inner city district of Sillery (formerly a separate city - and kind of a Westmount or Rosedale type of place). Sillery is almost entirely francophone today.

The largest concentration of anglos in the Quebec City area today is the mountain-exurban town of Shannon, about 45 minutes NW of the city I think. It's historically anglo but today they'd be about 15% of the population. It's also near the military base of Valcartier so this likely helps sustain the anglo population a bit too.

People from Quebec City will correct me if I am wrong here.

Originally Posted by Loco101

I've spent the last week on vacation in the Quebec City area and can tell you what I observed and learned after asking some people. Acajack is accurate with what he wrote.

There are a number of anglophones in a few towns Northwest of the city. The towns of Saint-Gabriel de Valcartier and Shannon have many bilingual signs which is unusual for the region. The signs weren't just federal and municipal ones but also on many private businesses. Those towns have CFB Valcartier which likely helps with the bilingualism being encouraged and tolerated. Someone told me that about 15% of the residents speak mainly English at home in the area and that the towns offer bilingual services even though they don't really have to under Quebec law. I noticed many Irish family names on street signs and mailboxes.

Thanks for the responses, guys. I really wasn't thinking of Valcartier in terms of Anglo exclaves within Quebec City, but that makes sense with the CFB. Still, there are legacy Anglo institutions like the Morrin Centre, though not much of an Anglo population. Most Quebec City residents aren't even bilingual when I checked the latest stats (something like 1/3).

Why did the outmigration of Anglos from Quebec City predate the Quiet Revolution and the more known Montreal version? What caused the early exodus?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ue

Thanks for the responses, guys. I really wasn't thinking of Valcartier in terms of Anglo exclaves within Quebec City, but that makes sense with the CFB. Still, there are legacy Anglo institutions like the Morrin Centre, though not much of an Anglo population. Most Quebec City residents aren't even bilingual when I checked the latest stats (something like 1/3).

Why did the outmigration of Anglos from Quebec City predate the Quiet Revolution and the more known Montreal version? What caused the early exodus?

Perceived better opportunities elsewhere?

The generalized trend of people moving westwards in North America?

The same phenomenon also happened in Quebec's Eastern Townships - again, way before the 1960s.

Those who wanted to stay in Quebec generally moved to Montreal where services and institutions for the anglo community were concentrated (and increasingly so).

But many simply left the province altogether.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

in some areas the assimilation rate is positive, which means anglos are becoming francophones.

Some people might consider that a negative. I guess that depends on your point of view. Certainly some of the northern NB migration to Moncton are anglophone refugees fleeing the lack of opportunities for their community in the north. There are no Anglophone institutions of higher education north of the Miramichi and all the hospitals in the area belong to the francophone Vitalite Health Network.

It's almost as if the NB provincial government were involved in some massive form of social engineering.........

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Some people might consider that a negative. I guess that depends on your point of view.

"Positive" in the mathematical sense for the francophone demographic.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Certainly some of the northern NB migration to Moncton are anglophone refugees fleeing the lack of opportunities for their community in the north. There are no Anglophone institutions of higher education north of the Miramichi and all the hospitals in the area belong to the francophone Vitalite Health Network.

I've spent a lot of time in northern NB in my life, and as a kid in the 80s I had the distinct impression that anglo areas (Salmon Beach-Janeville-Stonehaven, Nash Creek-Jacquet River, etc.) had already emptied out considerably earlier than the nearby francophone areas.

To put it bluntly - with some exceptions, the anglo towns were already pretty dead, whereas the Acadian areas still had a lot of community and demographic vitality going into the 90s.

But now the Acadian francophone areas in the north are being hit really hard. With some exceptions, they are all dead or dying. It's as bad or worse as it was in the anglo towns when I was a kid.

Tracadie has eaten Caraquet's lunch in the peninsula and may one day be the "last man standing" as the regional centre for whoever is left in that region. Which is kinda sad because Caraquet is the more important Acadian town of the two from a historical and cultural perspective. Oh well...

[MonctonRad]

I don't disagree with what you are saying but while the first phase of the Anglophone exodus may have been from the rural areas and smaller villages, now the wave of Anglophone refugees is arising from the regional towns and cities (Dalhousie, Campbellton and Bathurst). I can't look up any stats right now (I'm at work), but I suspect the future of the northern NB Anglophone communities will look a lot like that of the Anglophone communities in l'Estrie from the last century.........

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I don't disagree with what you are saying but while the first phase of the Anglophone exodus may have been from the rural areas and smaller villages, now the wave of Anglophone refugees is arising from the regional towns and cities (Dalhousie, Campbellton and Bathurst). I can't look up any stats right now (I'm at work), but I suspect the future of the northern NB Anglophone communities will look a lot like that of the Anglophone communities in l'Estrie from the last century.........

I get what you're saying. The anglophone and francophone phases are basically staggered.

The anglophone villages emptied out while the francophone villages were still stable. Then the francophone villages started emptying out.

Those towns and cities are now losing their anglophone populations at a rapid rate, but the francophones are proportionately more likely to stay put - for now.

As a resident of an area (Ottawa-Gatineau) that gets a lot of Acadian migrants, I can tell you that there are very disproportionately from smaller towns and villages at the moment. You do meet people from the towns you mentioned, but the vast majority are from much smaller towns and villages.

[Acajack]

You also see this difference in mobility behaviour in other parts of the country as well.

For example, in Kapuskasing in NE Ontario, the town has gone from about 50-50 anglo-franco in the 70s and 80s to around 70% francophone today. Due to the higher likelihood of anglophones to move out, and francophones tending to stay in place more.

I checked on StatsCan and it seems as though Bathurst and Campbellton, both historically 50-50 towns as well, are moving in the direction of stronger francophone majority populations.

We shall see if the 2016 census confirms the trend, I guess.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

We don't have a word for that here, though that may be because the situation doesn't arise all that often. Definitely this winter though!

Makes me think it's a Southern Ontario "regionalism", reflecting winter conditions that, unfortunately, oblige you to have a word for the phenomenon.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yeah, the francophone population of NB seems headed for an extended period of decline. This is not something that I would have forecast a couple of decades ago, as it was always the strongest francophone community outside Quebec, with an assimilation rate of 10% whereas every other province was at least at 40% (some way more).

But now there are a number of factors hitting the community hard

- high francophone outmigration from the province in general, but especially from the mainly francophone north.

- a major shift of the francophone population in NB from the low assimilation areas of the north (in some areas the assimilation rate is positive, which means anglos are becoming francophones) to the south where assimilation rates are more similar to those observed in Ontario. For example, in spite of all the talk about Moncton as a happening place for francophones, their assimilation rate there is still about 20-25%. Way higher than in Caraquet, Tracadie or Edmundston.

Do you have any numbers or sourcing on assimilation rates?

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I don't disagree with what you are saying but while the first phase of the Anglophone exodus may have been from the rural areas and smaller villages, now the wave of Anglophone refugees is arising from the regional towns and cities (Dalhousie, Campbellton and Bathurst). I can't look up any stats right now (I'm at work), but I suspect the future of the northern NB Anglophone communities will look a lot like that of the Anglophone communities in l'Estrie from the last century.........

Originally Posted by Acajack

I checked on StatsCan and it seems as though Bathurst and Campbellton, both historically 50-50 towns as well, are moving in the direction of stronger francophone majority populations.

We shall see if the 2016 census confirms the trend, I guess.

2016 will almost certainly continue the trend and, if anything, speed it up. The age of Northern NB is going to contribute to an even quicker decline, IMO.

I haven't done any of the smaller regions yet but here's the bigger picture:

Knowledge of Official Languages (Northumberland County)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 33,665/3,315/14,535/25 (51,540)
2006: 31,740/3,630/12,785/25 (48,180)
2011: 31,970/3,090/12,425/40 (47,525)

(Bilingual decrease. Anglo-only gain. Nothumberland becoming more English as population dwindles)


Knowledge of Official Languages (Victoria County)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 11,080/1,720/8,920/0 (21,720)
2006: 9,650/1,545/8,880/0 (20,075)
2011: 9,645/1,365/8,660/0 (19,670)

(Anglo-only decrease. Bilingual gain)

Knowledge of Official Languages (Madawaska County)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 575/14,110/21,605/10 (36,300)
2006: 495/13,190/19,800/35 (33,520)
2011: 450/12,845/19,205/20 (32,520)

(Bilingualism rate in Madawaska falling. Franco-only rates benefits proportionally)


Knowledge of Official Languages (Restigouche County)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 9,465/9,785/18,960/0 (38,210)
2006: 7,305/8,920/16,815/10 (33,050)
2011: 7,565/8,105/15,980/10 (31,660)

(Not much movement proportionally in these numbers. Anglo-only down as Bilingualism up slightly)

Knowledge of Official Languages (Gloucester County)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 7,780/35,145/43,675/55 (86,655)
2006: 6,230/34,555/36,765/130 (77,680)
2011: 6,560/31,340/38,635/35 (76,570)

(All proportionally decreasing at same rate)

Knowledge of Official Languages (Bathurst CA)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 6,620/2,400/16,105/20 (25,145)
2006: 5,405/5,550/19,930/45 (30,930)
2011: 7,015/5,345/20,560/20 (32,940)

(Franco-only increase proportionally at expense of Anglo-only)

Knowledge of Official Languages (Campbellton CA [NB part only])
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 3,500/2,475/7,675/0 (13,650)
2006: 3,125/2,590/8,655/0 (14,370)
2011: 3,325/2,470/8,235/10 (14,040)

(Mostly static)

Knowledge of Official Languages (Edmundston CA)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 385/8,300/13,605/10 (22,300)
2006: 235/8,280/12,530/30 (21,075)
2011: 265/8,600/12,420/15 (21,300)

(Franco-only increase at expense of bilingual decrease)

I can look at some smaller areas and towns but you mostly get the picture. Areas where there were already majority Anglophone populations (Northumberland/Miramichi) are becoming more Anglophone as they decrease. Francophone-majority areas become more francophone but decrease overall at a quicker rate. Northern NB is one of the oldest areas of the country and the next 15-20 years are going to be very, very tough on population numbers in these areas. With many younger people already gone we're going to see a further emptying out of many areas altogether.

Similar to what Acajack mentioned earlier with assimilation rates the longevity of Francophones in NB lies in Northern NB, and the overall decline of that region puts that in jeopardy. Although francophone numbers are increasing in Moncton (Westmorland) the rate of assimilation is higher. In a report on literacy amongst Francophones in NB the authors concluded that in New Brunswick if one parent is Anglophone and one parent is Francophone the likelihood of the child having English as their primary languages is 68%. They had a fancy word for this which I can't recall right now but that would be similar to the assimilation rate Acajack is referencing.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

In a report on literacy amongst Francophones in NB the authors concluded that in New Brunswick if one parent is Anglophone and one parent is Francophone the likelihood of the child having English as their primary languages is 68%. They had a fancy word for this which I can't recall right now but that would be similar to the assimilation rate Acajack is referencing.

Intergenerational language transfer?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Intergenerational language transfer?

Exogamous Francophone couples.

The following is from the Statistics Canada report from September 2016 titled "The literacy skills of New Brunswick Francophones: Demographic and socioeconomic issues"

The more rapid aging of the francophone population is mainly due to two factors: decreasing fertility and incomplete transmission of French. Regarding the first factor, the fertility of francophone women was historically much higher than that of anglophone women. Between 1956 and 1961, for example, the fertility of francophone women was 5.9 children per woman, while that of anglophones was approximately 4.3 children per woman (Lepage et al., 2011). In the decades that followed, the fertility of francophones decreased considerably to the point that, since the 1980s, their fertility has been lower than that of anglophones (Lepage et al. 2011). The fertility of francophone women was 1.5 children per woman between 2006 and 2011, compared with 1.7 children per woman among anglophones.

Regarding the second factor, French is not always passed on to children as a mother tongue. While French is almost always passed on when both parents are francophones, the rate of transmission decreases considerably if the mother tongue of one of the parents is not French. In 2011, French was passed on as the mother tongue to 32% of children whose parents had French and English as their mother tongues respectively. Exogamous francophone couples are becoming increasingly common in New Brunswick. In 1971, just over 15% of children with at least one francophone parent were living in a family of an exogamous couple, compared with 33% in 2011. These two elements therefore exert a degree of influence on the transmission of French from parents to children and, at the same time, on the rate of aging of the francophone population.

The impacts of population aging on Canada’s economic and social development are many. The increase in retirements that will likely occur in the coming years will present a number of challenges, not only with regard to labour force renewal but also financial security for retired individuals—and at the same time for pension funds—and for management of the health care system. In light of recent demographic dynamics, New Brunswick’s francophone population will likely continue to age more quickly than the anglophone population and the population of Canada as a whole.

[Acajack]

That's interesting. I used to do a lot of reading on this subject for semi-professional reasons.

My general impression was that minority francophones in Canada had made considerable progress in passing on French to children in "exogamous" families, although obviously in majority anglophone regions of the country it's never going to be anywhere near 100%.

I believe that almost everywhere in Anglo-Canada kids in anglophone-francophone families are significantly more likely to have French as a mother tongue today than 20-30-40 years ago, but the share of "exogamous" families continues to grow, and so it's almost certainly a net loss for francophones anyway in light of this latter factor.

Certainly, that's what's going on in my family.

[JHikka]

One of the more interesting factors for me looking at New Brunswick's growth is how the linguistic environment in Moncton plays out. On the whole, a lot of people make assumptions that part of Moncton's growth is based on Francophones moving from Northern New Brunswick to the Moncton-area. There is some truth to this but there is much more to the city's (and region's) growth than just that - inter-provincial migration is a big cause, as is intra-provincial migration not just from Northern NB but from all over the province.

What we're witnessing in the Moncton-region is an increase in Francophones in some areas (Dieppe, primarily) but an increase in Anglophones throughout. As Moncton grows, raw numbers for each group increases, but the Anglophone group benefits primarily with the largest increases. The effect that this has leads to increasing Anglophone influence around the outskirts of the city where there otherwise would have only been Francophone influence before. Places like Kent County, Shediac, and Beaubassin are steadily becoming more Anglophone as Moncton increases in size and stature. Presumably the larger it grows the more Anglophone it becomes, especially if Francophone areas elsewhere in the province shrink.

If we use this idea and combine it with the exogamous theory posited by the StatsCan researchers we come to a stark realization for Francophones in New Brunswick: Rural French areas are shrinking (with some disappearing entirely), and the more that those people move to the big French city (Moncton) the more quickly their language will be replaced by English (exgamously). It's beginning to look more and more like a lose-lose situation for Francophones in the province.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

One of the more interesting factors for me looking at New Brunswick's growth is how the linguistic environment in Moncton plays out. On the whole, a lot of people make assumptions that part of Moncton's growth is based on Francophones moving from Northern New Brunswick to the Moncton-area. There is some truth to this but there is much more to the city's (and region's) growth than just that - inter-provincial migration is a big cause, as is intra-provincial migration not just from Northern NB but from all over the province.

What we're witnessing in the Moncton-region is an increase in Francophones in some areas (Dieppe, primarily) but an increase in Anglophones throughout. As Moncton grows, raw numbers for each group increases, but the Anglophone group benefits primarily with the largest increases. The effect that this has leads to increasing Anglophone influence around the outskirts of the city where there otherwise would have only been Francophone influence before. Places like Kent County, Shediac, and Beaubassin are steadily becoming more Anglophone as Moncton increases in size and stature. Presumably the larger it grows the more Anglophone it becomes, especially if Francophone areas elsewhere in the province shrink.

If we use this idea and combine it with the exogamous theory posited by the StatsCan researchers we come to a stark realization for Francophones in New Brunswick: Rural French areas are shrinking (with some disappearing entirely), and the more that those people move to the big French city (Moncton) the more quickly their language will be replaced by English (exgamously). It's beginning to look more and more like a lose-lose situation for Francophones in the province.

Yup.

I've always found Dieppe to be an interesting comparison to east end Ottawa suburbs like Orleans. Unlike Orleans, Dieppe has retained its majority francophone character in spite of its growth. Dieppe is also a separate municipality, something that Orleans never was. (Before becoming part of the mega-Ottawa, Orleans was split between two majority anglophone municipalities: Gloucester and Cumberland.)

You can see how Dieppe wants to retain its francophone character with stuff like the bilingual sign law, which represents a symbolic line in the sand I guess.

And the anglophone share of Dieppe's population continues to rise, albeit very slowly.

Further down the road, semi-famous Acadian places like Shediac are IMO significantly less francophone than one might expect. Which of course doesn't mean that French is out of sight out of mind there.

[Acajack]

How times change. In the 1950s, when the francophone birth rate was sky-high and New Brunswick seemed to be moving quickly towards a population that was 40% francophone, quite a few people were saying Canada might eventually have two provinces with francophone majorities.

Now NB is soon going to go from pretty solidly one third francophone in most of my lifetime, to under 30%, if it isn't already there...

And that is in a province where the anglo population is declining or stagnant, and with very low immigration.

[Acajack]

Interesting fact: at the turn of the 20th century the francophone populations of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were about the same. Around 50,000 in each province.

Today, NB has four to five times more francophones than in 1900, but in NS it's about the same (maybe a bit more or a bit less).

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Now NB is soon going to go from pretty solidly one third francophone in most of my lifetime, to under 30%, if it isn't already there...

And that is in a province where the anglo population is declining or stagnant, and with very low immigration.

Knowledge of Official Language (New Brunswick)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 417,970/73,410/237,770/480 (729,630)
2006: 405,045/73,750/240,085/765 (719,645)
2011: 426,675/66,375/245,980/960 (739,990)

Language Spoken Most Often at Home (New Brunswick)
ENG/FR
1996: 498,845/219,385
2001: 493,630/215,055
2006: 494,215/211,665
2011: 512,115/209,885

ENG/FR
1996: 68.37%/30.07%
2001: 68.59%/29.88%
2006: 68.64%/29.41%
2011: 69.20%/28.40%

Immigration increases are only going to further push the French proportion down faster and faster. If the 2006-2011 trend is anything to go by we may see French as a proportion of language spoken at home decrease by 1%-2% every five years.

New Brunswick population trends, essentially:
Anglophone Rural: Decline
Anglophone Urban: Increase
Francophone Rural: Decline
Francophone Urban: Steady

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Knowledge of Official Language (New Brunswick)
ENG ONLY/FR ONLY/BILINGUAL/NEITHER (TOTAL)
1996: 417,970/73,410/237,770/480 (729,630)
2006: 405,045/73,750/240,085/765 (719,645)
2011: 426,675/66,375/245,980/960 (739,990)

Language Spoken Most Often at Home (New Brunswick)
ENG/FR
1996: 498,845/219,385
2001: 493,630/215,055
2006: 494,215/211,665
2011: 512,115/209,885

ENG/FR
1996: 68.37%/30.07%
2001: 68.59%/29.88%
2006: 68.64%/29.41%
2011: 69.20%/28.40%

Immigration increases are only going to further push the French proportion down faster and faster. If the 2006-2011 trend is anything to go by we may see French as a proportion of language spoken at home decrease by 1%-2% every five years.

Pretty shocking as NB was always the brightest spot in the Canadian francophonie (outside Quebec).