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  #81  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2016, 8:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Really? I know it's the safest of safe seats but she'd quit the premiership over a byelection?
Correction: virtually certain she'd face pressure to resign.

But I don't they'll lose Vanier anyway.
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  #82  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2016, 2:20 PM
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I am actually quite enthused to be able to cast my ballot in the byelection, whatever the result. It seems like a unique opportunity. We are also fortunate to have two (at least) very well-qualified candidates.
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  #83  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2016, 5:34 PM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
Marin is very much a moderate.

My sister (resident of the riding) went to the community debate and she told me she was blown away by how progressive many of Marin's statements were... he indicated he supports spending more money on cycling infrastructure, the opening of a safe injection site, and expanding welfare.
In other words, cabinet material. However, he is definitely best to stay in the city (or at least the suburbs) and contest a seat currently Liberal-held, as he would struggle in getting the nomination in a rural riding (as we saw in Niagara West-Glanbrook, and Marin is to the left of Dykstra who was defeated there). Orleans or Ottawa West-Nepean are probably the best seats for him to contest - Liberal leaning but winnable for the PC's under the right circumstances.

If somehow he won, does he compete for Ottawa-Vanier in the general election, knowing if the Liberals have a different leader and/or the PC's have to spread resources everywhere, he is probably toast in what should be a safe riding for the Liberals?
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  #84  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2016, 5:52 PM
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If somehow he won, does he compete for Ottawa-Vanier in the general election, knowing if the Liberals have a different leader and/or the PC's have to spread resources everywhere, he is probably toast in what should be a safe riding for the Liberals?
Not that I think a Marin victory is likely, but incumbents that get into office through by-elections tend to do well in the general. NDP still holds Parkdale-High Park, Hamilton East, Kitchener-Waterloo and Niagara Falls.
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  #85  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2016, 10:27 PM
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^ The NDP have a very good track record of keeping unexpected by-election pickups. In addition to that list there's also London West.

The PC & Liberal track records on this are weaker (Etobicoke Lakeshore is an example).

In the unlikely event that Marin wins tomorrow, it will probably be a quirk of the low turnout byelections have; something that is unlikely to be replicated in 2018.

It would be neat to see a poll-by-poll map of tomorrow's result, if someone compiled one. I wouldn't be surprised if Marin won most of the polls in Overbrook and Beacon Hill but the Liberals carry the riding with overwhelming strength in Vanier and Sandy Hill.
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  #86  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2016, 4:43 AM
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Brown has conceded that the PCs won't likely win the seat, but says coming within 10-15 points would be a victory.
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  #87  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2016, 8:27 AM
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^ Did he say that recently? That's a pretty big statement for him to make especially because the media has generally (incorrectly, IMO) treated the race as competitive.
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  #88  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2016, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
^ Did he say that recently? That's a pretty big statement for him to make especially because the media has generally (incorrectly, IMO) treated the race as competitive.
Ontario PCs hope to elect teen MPP, unseat Liberals in two byelections

By Allison Jones and Keith Leslie The Canadian Press
November 16, 2016 10:08 am | Updated: November 16, 2016 2:55 pm


TORONTO — Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives hope to make history Thursday in two byelections, with a teenage candidate in Niagara and a former ombudsman turning up the heat on the Liberals in an Ottawa stronghold.

The Tories are expected to hold Niagara West-Glanbrook even with an upstart 19-year-old candidate stirring up controversy by taking social conservative stances that run contrary to PC leader Patrick Brown‘s attempts at modernizing the party.

But the Tories are also taking a hard run at Ottawa-Vanier, which has elected only Liberals since 1971.

Brown suggested it’s unlikely the Tories will win, but if they come within 10 points of the Liberals it will be “historic.”

“If this is competitive it shows that the Liberals are in disarray across the province and they don’t have the confidence of the public,” he said.

Former ombudsman Andre Marin is running under the PC banner there and is trying to capitalize on anger over rising electricity rates and the declining popularity of Premier Kathleen Wynne.

When he mentions Wynne’s name while campaigning, people “bristle,” Marin said. “They have a physical reaction.”

The Liberal candidate, civil liberties lawyer Nathalie Des Rosiers, acknowledged that hydro prices are a hurdle for her in the campaign.

“It’s normal at mid-mandate that one issue becomes a catalyst for disappointment on a variety of points of view, so in a byelection that usually is the case – there’s one issue that becomes the symbol of discontent,” she said.

The Liberal government announced an eight-per-cent rebate on electricity bills will come into effect Jan. 1, but it remains to be seen whether it is enough to satisfy the 94 per cent of Ontarians that government-commissioned polling shows are eager for hydro price relief.

But Marin comes with baggage of his own. He was seen in his roles as ombudsman and director of the Special Investigations Unit as critical of police. The Police Association of Ontario expressed “profound disappointment” at Marin’s nomination and Brown sought to undo any damage when he spoke to their conference Tuesday.

“I called (Marin) and I said, ‘You are going to support my positions on policing because I am an unequivocal supporter of the police – are you OK with that?” Brown said. “I had his unequivocal commitment that any previous criticisms would no longer carry water and that he would never speak against police again.”

A police officer in the audience recorded Brown’s speech and gave the audio to the Liberals, who in turn provided it to the media.

Brown said Wednesday he was addressing “one of the elephants in the room” but denied that what he told Marin amounted to muzzling him. When reached by phone, Marin said he was “not in a position” to answer questions about it.

“You’re saying that he said I was never allowed to criticize the police again? I’ll have to get back to you on that,” Marin said. He did not call back.

Brown has also been accused of muzzling his candidate in Niagara over his social conservative views.

Sam Oosterhoff – who would be the youngest person elected to the legislature – describes himself as “100 per cent pro life,” refused to say where he stood on same-sex marriage and campaigned against the Liberals’ sex-ed curriculum. After a flip-flop, Brown now supports the curriculum and said Wednesday he supports a woman’s right to choose and marriage equality.

Oosterhoff, who beat out PC party president Rick Dykstra and a party vice-president to win the nomination, believes he can vote against his party’s positions in the legislature.

“I’m very proud of the PC party having a long-standing tradition of allowing open votes on matters of deeply held conscience,” he said.

Brown described the party discipline differently.

“I have, here at Queen’s Park, encouraged more free votes,” he said. “Having said that, I’ve asked my caucus to support the direction I’m taking as a party.”

Oosterhoff said it’s not social issues, but rising electricity bills and anger over the installation of giant wind turbines in the riding that residents bring up with him.

“People are upset and are worried about the direction the Liberals are taking Ontario,” he said. “People want a voice of change and I’m excited to be that voice.”

The Liberal candidate in Niagara, Vicki Ringuette, was booed and jeered at a recent all candidates meeting when she talked about the rebate.

“It is not the kind of reaction I’m getting at the doors,” said Ringuette. “They want to talk about the issues that are important to this community, health care, schools, the fact that we’re getting increased day care spaces.”

The NDP candidate in Ottawa-Vanier is Claude Bisson, brother of the party’s house leader in the legislature, Gilles Bisson. The New Democrat running in Niagara is former Hamilton police officer Mike Thomas, who signed a five-year membership in the Ontario PC party in September.

© 2016 The Canadian Press

http://globalnews.ca/news/3070196/ontari...teen-unseat-liberals-in-two-byelections/
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  #89  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2016, 3:42 AM
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Liberals have won Ottawa-Vanier, as expected. There's still about 60 polls remaining to be counted but so far it looks like the Liberals will win by about 20 points.
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  #90  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2016, 12:44 PM
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Liberals win Ottawa-Vanier byelection, breathe huge sigh of relief

David Reevely, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: November 17, 2016 | Last Updated: November 17, 2016 11:01 PM EST


Ontario’s Liberals have some ground to stand on as they fight toward re-election in 2018: They can count on Ottawa-Vanier.

With 211 of 265 polls reporting at 11 o’clock Thursday night, their candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers was handily defeating Progressive Conservative challenger André Marin in the byelection triggered by last summer’s retirement of local saint Madeleine Meilleur. Des Rosiers had 49 per cent of the vote to Marin’s 29 per cent and New Democrat Claude Bisson’s 15 per cent. Eight other candidates shared the rest.

Premier Kathleen Wynne and her cabinet can go into their annual convention here on the weekend without having to ask themselves what the hell they’re going to do. That was the terror Marin and Tory leader Patrick Brown had hoped to induce by winning, or at least making a fight of it.

The chants of “Nathalie! Nathalie! Nathalie!” from the cabinet ministers and campaign workers in the Knights of Columbus hall on McArthur Avenue were a bit louder than those of “Madeleine! Madeleine! Madeleine!” but only a bit.

“I know I have huge big red shoes to fill,” Des Rosiers joked to Meilleur as she gave her victory speech. “It’s a great night for the Liberal party, it’s a great night for Ottawa-Vanier, and obviously it’s a fabulous night for me.

Des Rosiers had arrived with the premier. Did the win save Premier Kathleen Wynne’s job, amid terrible approval ratings for the Liberal government and for her personally?

“I’m thrilled to have Nathalie coming with us to Queen’s Park,” Wynne said, asked that question a bunch of different ways.

The win validates the Liberal message that Ontario has turned the corner after a bad recession and slow recovery, said Marie-France Lalonde, the MPP for neighbouring Ottawa-Orléans. The provincial government is building schools and expanding hospitals. “That is who we are,” Lalonde said.

She took a veiled shot at the Progressive Conservatives, whose candidate Sam Oosterhoff won a smashing victory in the night’s other byelection in Niagara West-Glanbrook. Oosterhoff is a 19-year-old social conservative, adamantly pro-life.

“We are inclusive. We are the party of diversity. We’re not going to judge you on who you are, your beliefs,” Lalonde said.

For a long time, the legend was that if the Liberals, federal or provincial, were ever wiped out like the federal Progressive Conservatives were after Brian Mulroney, Ottawa-Vanier would be one of the seats they had left. They’ve won it in good times and bad, by tens of thousands of votes.

But this is 2016. Wynne’s government is broadly unpopular. Voters are angry about pocketbook issues like rising electricity prices. The Progressive Conservatives netted a confident battler for a candidate in André Marin, a guy who made his name as provincial ombudsman specifically fighting for individual Ontarians screwed by the system.

Byelections, it can’t be said enough, are weird. They notoriously bring out protest voters in big numbers while people satisfied with the status quo stay at home. Who runs the government isn’t at stake.

And Des Rosiers, as sterling as her résumé is (she’s been a law dean twice, head of the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, an advocate on multiple fronts), is not Madeleine Meilleur. They’re both lawyers, both francophone women, both polished. But Meilleur, though born in Quebec, is Vanier through and through in a way Des Rosiers is not.

If the Tories could have taken Vanier, they’d have dealt the Liberals a crippling blow. The Liberals had to stop them.

Both the leading parties pulled out every stop. Brown, who won the Progressive Conservative leadership by endless campaigning in every unlikely corner of the province, returned to Ottawa every weekend to knock on doors with Marin and fire up the Tory troops.

Wynne had the busiest month of visits to the capital she’s had as premier, doing relatively little direct campaigning but finding reasons to make government announcements in Ottawa that she’d typically make in Toronto (like promising to allow speed cameras in school zones) or to “highlight” the effect here of Liberal spending across the province (new daycare spaces at a school on McArthur! a new unit at the Queensway Carleton!).

“At the end of the day, we were up against a machine. A machine that is the strongest in the City of Ottawa,” Tory MPP Lisa MacLeod told the Citizen’s Brian Platt at Marin’s victory-party-that-wasn’t at the Hampton Inn on Coventry Road.

Marin’s main message throughout the campaign was that electricity was too expensive, killing businesses and hope. Lalonde said she heard very little about that as she knocked on doors. Hydro prices have soared particularly in rural Ontario, where many people pay a lot for long-distance transmission and heat their homes electrically, but much less so in dense downtown districts.

Ottawa-Vanier was a riding the Liberals had to win to keep from self-destructing, and they did.

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twitter.com/davidreevely

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news...out-in-ottawa-vanier-on-byelection-night
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  #91  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 12:40 PM
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Liberals square off in Ottawa-Vanier debate, hoping to succeed Mauril Bélanger

Megan Gillis, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: January 5, 2017 | Last Updated: January 5, 2017 9:48 PM EST


It was standing room only Thursday night at the Richelieu-Vanier Community Centre, as nine of 10 candidates vying for the federal Liberal nomination in Ottawa-Vanier — a seat left vacant by the death of MP Mauril Bélanger — faced off in a debate.

The Liberals clearly see it as a high-stakes contest; their nominee has taken the seat since the riding was formed in 1935.

But there was little drama, with candidates agreeing on priorities such as tackling crime and homelessness, boosting economic development, winning infrastructure investment and getting truck traffic off King Edward Avenue.

“We’ve identified similar issues — we all bring different strengths,” said candidate Francis LeBlanc, who ran Bélanger’s last winning campaign, his eighth.

“We cannot take this for granted,” said Mona Fortier, another candidate and longtime Liberal activist who vowed to work to keep the riding red.

The contenders supported setting up supervised injection sites to help drug users, but said they must be done in consultation with nearby residents.

A date has yet to be set for the nomination vote, which will be decided by ranked ballot. A byelection must be called by Feb. 19.

Bélanger, 61, died in August of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis after his 2015 election win. Bélanger won 57.6 per cent of that vote. Emilie Taman of the NDP, who has already been nominated by her party to run again, got 19.3 per cent. Conservative David Piccini with 19.1 per cent.

The candidates:
Khatera Akbari: She fled her war-torn country and went on to become a KPMG auditor then began working on Parliament Hill in Senate administration in 2009, focusing on “greater accountability and transparency” and says “Ottawa-Vanier’s diversity is its strength;”

Jean Claude Dubuisson: A Haitian-born author and lawyer focusing on criminal trials and appellate work, who has worked on local Liberal campaigns and says he knows how to work for the rights of his constituents after fighting for people’s rights in court;

Mona Fortier: The co-chair of the riding’s 2015 campaign, a board member at the Montfort Hospital and the region’s representative on the province’s francophone affairs advisory committee, Fortier advocates more affordable housing, green energy development, investments in small business and the public sector and helping new Canadians integrate.

Abdourahman Kahin: An immigrant from Djibouti, he has worked as a community developer, public school teacher in the neighbourhood and immigration counsellor and says his campaign will focus on values of equality, justice and inclusion.

Eric Khaiat: A Franco-Ontarian civil servant who worked for Liberal members of Parliament since the 2015 election, he touts his experience in government and wants to build on the “magnificent” legacy of Bélanger.

Francis Leblanc: An economist who managed Bélanger’s last campaign, Leblanc said he would get to work right away advancing the government’s agenda in the riding, including alleviating poverty, helping the middle class, strengthening bilingualism, reconciling with First Nations and investing in infrastructure;

Ainsley Malhotra: From the family that ran Johnson’s Furniture in the ByWard Market, Malhotra worked as a public servant in finance and export development and says she would address poverty, housing and health needs in the area and “grow a smart, environmentally conscious economy;”

Persévérance Anta Ekwi Mayer (did not attend the debate): Mayer, a founder of the African League of Canada who vied for the riding’s provincial Liberal nomination last year, describes herself as a “devout militant” for minority and francophone causes;

Nicolas Moyer: A Franco-Ontarian who founded the Lowertown community newspaper The Echo, Moyer founded the Humanitarian Coalition, which raises money for disaster relief efforts, aims to get more infrastructure investment in the riding, get trucks off King Edward Avenue, boost access to long-term care and help new Canadians;

Véronique Soucy: A radio host and journalist and volunteer with groups including the Juno Awards committee, said she knows about the“concerns and challenges but also the full development potential of her community.”

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/l...debate-hoping-to-succeed-mauril-belanger
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  #92  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 3:13 PM
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I had a mailing yesterday from Ainsley Malhotra. Not that it is relevant to her qualifications for the position, but would I be correct in thinking that she's related by marriage to the Claridge Malhotras?

Who is considered the front-runner? It will be a nice "job for life" for whomever gets the nod.
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  #93  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I had a mailing yesterday from Ainsley Malhotra. Not that it is relevant to her qualifications for the position, but would I be correct in thinking that she's related by marriage to the Claridge Malhotras?

Who is considered the front-runner? It will be a nice "job for life" for whomever gets the nod.
I thought Mathieu Fleury was expected to go for this??
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  #94  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 4:49 PM
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Assuming the Liberals win this by-election.
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  #95  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 5:08 PM
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Assuming the Liberals win this by-election.
Always. Although in this particular case ....
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  #96  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2017, 5:55 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I had a mailing yesterday from Ainsley Malhotra. Not that it is relevant to her qualifications for the position, but would I be correct in thinking that she's related by marriage to the Claridge Malhotras?

Who is considered the front-runner? It will be a nice "job for life" for whomever gets the nod.
Yes, she is Neil Malhotra's wife.

http://ottawacitizen.com/life/style/our-...ld-at-opening-of-new-byward-market-hotel
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  #97  
Old Posted Jan 7, 2017, 6:38 AM
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Originally Posted by MichelKazan View Post
Assuming the Liberals win this by-election.
Not even close to being in doubt. Considering that the unpopular Ontario Liberals were able to carry the seat with 50% of the vote... the very popular federal Liberals can probably pull off a truly astronomical win. Something like 70% of the popular vote with the Tories & NDP way down in the teens.
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  #98  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2017, 5:24 PM
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Federal Ottawa-Vanier byelection happening April 3
Byelection needed after longtime MP Mauril Bélanger died last year

CBC News Posted: Feb 19, 2017 10:50 AM ET Last Updated: Feb 19, 2017 11:12 AM ET


Ottawa-Vanier will elect a replacement for Mauril Bélanger on April 3, according to the Prime Minister's Office.

Bélanger represented the urban riding for the Liberals from February 1995 until August 2016, when he died less than a year after announcing he had been diagnosed with ALS, or Lou Gehrig's disease.

Those running to replace him include:
  • Nirmala Dookeran for the Green Party, a high school teacher and community activist who ran for the party in the last federal election.
  • Mona Fortier for the Liberals, a businesswoman and Liberal organizer who co-chaired Bélanger's last campaign.
  • Adrian Papara for the Conservatives, who has an MBA from uOttawa and has been working as a director of operations for Alberta Conservative MP Tom Kmiec.
  • Emilie Taman for the NDP, a lawyer who ran for the party in the last federal election and has been critical of the City of Ottawa's plans for a new central library.
The riding has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1935 but residents have never elected a female MP.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-vanier-byelection-day-1.3990315
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  #99  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2017, 5:40 PM
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All the excitement of a North Korea election.
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  #100  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2017, 5:47 PM
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At least Fortier's nomination meeting was well attended.
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