I just found out that AC56/57 (YYZ-DXB) has been upgauged from a 789 to a 77W through the end of February 2017.
With this increase in capacity, I'm really cheesed that AC and the Trudeau government are not willing to re-negotiate bilaterals with the UAE or Turkey and that Vancouver
still doesn't have a direct flight to a Gulf destination or Istanbul, which is a few hours' flight time to most of the world's population. This is even considering:
- The return of nonstop YVR-DEL
- The state fuel subsidies that the ME3 get
- The lack of O/D (or even business travel) traffic between Vancouver and the UAE--in aviation terms, Vancouver is the northern hemisphere's New Zealand; far away from everywhere else. At least SEA-DXB is justified because the flights ship cargo parts for a Boeing fleet based at Dubai International Airport.
- How the ME3 massacred QF's longhaul market share
- The political unrest in Turkey making a YVR-IST flight more of a can of worms
- The AC/AS codeshare for YVR-SEA-DXB routings
Moreover, why isn't connecting traffic considered in bilateral negotiations? A bit of protectionism isn't bad sometimes but this reminds me of the previous Conservative government keeping Verizon out of the country way back when. I think there is protectionism going on not only in favour of AC, but of its *A partners, since YVR is an *A hub, and (I don't have hard numbers for this but this is just my hunch) MENASA is a popular onward destination for LH493 and CA992 pax. A thrice weekly 789 or 343 to DXB (or DOH or even AUH) isn't going to trigger the bottom dropping out of the market.
In fact, if AC72/73 becomes a permanent route (and not just a seasonal one), it will actually soak up a lot of YVR-MENASA demand (even from CZ/LH/KL/CX or newcomers like AF) and the more recent additions like AF) since most on hypothetical YVR-Gulf/Turkey flights would be heading to the subcontinent. TK is a *A partner and has a local partner in Air Canada. A 3-4x weekly 333 to IST and
one 3x weekly route to a Gulf destination (either DXB, AUH or DOH) on a 789 (EY/QR) or a 343 (QR) would be a reasonable complement to a year-round YVR-DEL, to cover other destinations in MENASA and Sub-Saharan Africa like BOM, CAI, ADD, BAH, JNB, TLV, BEY, CPT, LOS, CMN, etc. An EK 77W would be dicey, they're really high-density.
Alas, I've heard that the ME3 want multiple A380s to YVR a day, or nothing, if they're even going to bring up the idea of bilaterals. I don't know if it's true, but I wouldn't doubt it.
I would like to know where I can find hard numbers (if they're available) on what the most popular MENASA onward destinations are on direct longhaul flights leaving YVR. It would be very interesting to see. If they're locked away behind academic journal paywalls, that's okay because I have access to university library databases.