YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

a little PR piece from BIV, but it really shows how the 787 is changing how AC looks at YVR and how long thin routes are finding a niche in YVR. No surprise that J/higher-yielding pax is driving AC YVR growth, no surprise that AC is "considering launching other routes out of Vancouver to “Asia and the South Pacific”" due to the dreamliner but I was surprised to learn that YVRAA is angling for mumbai.



https://www.biv.com/article/2016/11/dreamliner-opening-skies-increased-yvr-traffic/

Yeah, this is one where I highly doubt both parties are looking at it seriously.

YVR may be looking at it but I doubt AC is. It's taken this bloody long for someone to even have an attempt at YVR-DEL and only seasonal three weekly. You will see AC daily year round before even an attempt would be made for YVR-BOM. And my first point is a long way off.

[Klazu]

It feels like Air Canada is throwing new Dreamliners on new routes left and right. How many more they will be expecting to be delivered?

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Klazu

It feels like Air Canada is throwing new Dreamliners on new routes left and right. How many more they will be expecting to be delivered?

CAPA had a nice summary of AC's plans, but unfortunately, they paywalled it. I think AC's inflection point for this round is ~2018, when AC will receive all of its 787 orders, and when they plan that rouge will reach its its cap of 50 planes negotiated with its unions.

it looks like AC is expecting 9 more 787 deliveries in 2017.

[Hot Rod]

OK folks. This just released,

Air China and Hainan applying for BOTH to fly non-stop Chongqing to Los Angeles; Chongqing's first non-stop route to North America. If approved, it would begin in 6-months.

http://www.traveldailymedia.com/243369/chinese-airlines-plans-us-flights-from-chongqing/

My thoughts/questions:

1) does this now increase the likelihood of YVR getting Chongqing? CKG will open their new, MEGA terminal (T3A) in the spring and likely will try to add a lot of International and Intercontinental flights.

2) what happened to Tianjin and Hainan's application for Chongqing-Vancouver?

3) does this now mean that more than one airline can fly city pair routes from China?

Interesting news nonetheless, but I'm surprised that YVR-CKG is not first and also surprised that LAX-YVR would be served by two airlines. ...

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Yeah, this is one where I highly doubt both parties are looking at it seriously.

YVR may be looking at it but I doubt AC is. It's taken this bloody long for someone to even have an attempt at YVR-DEL and only seasonal three weekly. You will see AC daily year round before even an attempt would be made for YVR-BOM. And my first point is a long way off.

What about Melbourne? I thought that was supposed to be on the shortlist, or am I wrong?

[jmt18325]

I would also expect to see daily YYZ-BOM before any YVR-BOM.

And yes, Melbourne was on the short list. All announced routes are from the shortlist, save for YVR-DEL.

[Johnny Aussie]

I refer back often to the AC Investor Day 2018 network opportunities map.

MEL, AKL, SIN, BKK, CTS, FRA, CDG are the remaining unserved YVR destinations from that map. All are plausible in my opinion.

Some more likely than others of course but not completely ridiculous.

YVR-DEL and YVR-DUB were both missing from that map so it doesn't tell the whole story.

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I refer back often to the AC Investor Day 2018 network opportunities map.

MEL, AKL, SIN, BKK, CTS, FRA, CDG are the remaining unserved YVR destinations from that map. All are plausible in my opinion.

Some more likely than others of course but not completely ridiculous.

YVR-DEL and YVR-DUB were both missing from that map so it doesn't tell the whole story.

Of the above destinations MEL, AKL, FRA and SIN are probably the most feasible for AC and would probably be serviced first before any of the other destinations. Rouge might be a candidate for CTS and CDG, as there is a lot of leisure traffic on those routes most likely. I would say BKK would be a Rouge flight, but the distance posses some problems for the 763 so I would say that route would be last.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by CareerShow

Of the above destinations MEL, AKL, FRA and SIN are probably the most feasible for AC and would probably be serviced first before any of the other destinations. Rouge might be a candidate for CTS and CDG, as there is a lot of leisure traffic on those routes most likely. I would say BKK would be a Rouge flight, but the distance posses some problems for the 763 so I would say that route would be last.

Regarding BKK, I thought that Thai Airways was planning to make a near-future move to serve both YVR and SEA. Am I wrong on that?

[nname]

BR will operate the last 744 to YVR next fall on Oct 28. Starting from Oct 29, they will run YVR-TPE with their own version of 77W "HD"

According to airlineroute twitter, KMG-NKG-YVR will start Dec 20, replacing KMG-PVG-YVR... I guess now they can no longer swap planes mid-trip at PVG

AC's YYZ-DEL will be reduced to 6x weekly starting April. I wonder if they over-estimated the demand, or just making way for year-round YVR-DEL? [the loads on PE and C so far seems better on the YYZ route compared to the YVR route, though]

[Hot Rod]

nm

[Johnny Aussie]

Nanjing is a go on MU.

Three weekly YVR-NKG-KMG. Starting 20 December 2016.

YVR-PVG reduces to 11 flights per week as the 3 weekly KMG flights transfer to NKG.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airl...dules-nanjing-vancouver-dec-2016-launch/

YVR's list of Chinese direct flights:

Beijing
Chengdu
Guangzhou
Hangzhou
Kunming
Nanjing
Qingdao
Shanghai
Shenyang
Xiamen
Zhengzhou

[nname]

Any more coming to make it 12 or 13?

Air China Cargo reduced YEG flight to 2x weekly... not sure where that weekly will go.. with the 2x weekly remaining in bilateral, this could make another route feasible

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Any more coming to make it 12 or 13?

Air China Cargo reduced YEG flight to 2x weekly... not sure where that weekly will go.. with the 2x weekly remaining in bilateral, this could make another route feasible

CA has 15 pax per week and 4 cargo per week allocated.
They utilise these on:
YVR-PEK (up to 11 weekly)
YUL-PEK (4 weekly)
YEG-TSN (2 weekly cargo)

So that does leave 2 per week (can be utilised as pax or Cargo).

Perhaps they will boost YVR to 13 weekly.

[mezzanine]

Buried in the news today, new daily seasonal mainline service to FRA and seasonal 3x weekly rouge service to gatwick. FRA is a 787-8. Surprised that AC only made FRA service seasonal, but i suppose that may change depending on demand.

Air Canada today announced it is further boosting international flights at its Vancouver hub next summer with daily seasonal flights from YVR to Frankfurt, and three times weekly seasonal flights from YVR to London Gatwick. Flights begin June 1, 2017 and June 8, 2017 respectively, and tickets are now available for purchase.

"Air Canada continues to strategically increase its European flights at YVR with seasonal daily flights to Frankfurt next summer and three times weekly flights to London Gatwick," said Benjamin Smith, Air Canada President, Passenger Airlines. "The addition of our flights to Frankfurt, one of Europe's most important hubs, offers customers a wide array of convenient choices and the ease of one-stop connections with our Star Alliance partner Lufthansa when travelling to southern, central and eastern Europe as well as Africa, the Middle East and beyond.

http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1079

[mezzanine]

and CAPA's view wrt to trump. any proposed hardline against mexico or china can play up to YVR's strengths but a move against intl trade and less open skies does not bode well for flying in general.

Even before the Presidential (and Congressional) election, it was already apparent that the fulcrum of US aviation policy had shifted towards a more protective and less liberal stance. Even if, following a confused bureaucratic process, the DoT has finally approved the NAI application, the reality is that it took two years, with strenuous objections to the delay by the US' sovereign partners.

Any future Administration will need to respond to a clear popular shift that emphasises job protection rather than trade options that increase jobs. Where Ms Clinton was prepared – or obliged – to dissociate herself from the TPP, something she believed to be a valuable trade measure, it is clear that world has changed irreversibly.

"Like all politicians, he says everything but once he gets elected, he will change his mind."
The final word is with Qatar Airways CEO, Akbar al Baker, someone with a habit of bluntly getting to the heart of the matter, speaking on CNBC on 17-May-2016: "I don't think Trump means what he says (about banning Muslims). He does not realize that he has a lot of investment in Muslim countries and at the same time there is a very huge Muslim population in the United States"..."Like all politicians, he says everything but once he gets elected, he will change his mind."

A lot of people will be hoping he is right. But regardless of what happens next, the earth has already moved, and not in a good direction for aviation.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/pr...likely-reversion-to-protectionism-312463

[nname]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

Buried in the news today, new daily seasonal mainline service to FRA and seasonal 3x weekly rouge service to gatwick. FRA is a 787-8. Surprised that AC only made FRA service seasonal, but i suppose that may change depending on demand.



http://aircanada.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1079

AC840 YVR1225 - 0705+1FRA 788 D
AC841 FRA1000 - 1055YVR 788 D

AC1934 YVR1645 - 1025+1LGW 763 246
AC1935 LGW1200 - 1410YVR 763 246

Seems like YVR-LGW will rotate with YYZ-LGW.. does that mean there are still 6x weekly Rouge flight unaccounted for?

I'm surprised there still slot to fit one more flight between 1000 and 1400...

[Cage]

Originally Posted by nname

AC840 YVR1225 - 0705+1FRA 788 D
AC841 FRA1000 - 1055YVR 788 D

AC1934 YVR1645 - 1025+1LGW 763 246
AC1935 LGW1200 - 1410YVR 763 246

Seems like YVR-LGW will rotate with YYZ-LGW.. does that mean there are still 6x weekly Rouge flight unaccounted for?

I'm surprised there still slot to fit one more flight between 1000 and 1400...

A Call to Gate system would help maximize gate capacity issues.

Aircraft would arrive, unload, push to a remote stand for servicing and maintenance checks, pull onto new gate that is determined based on current gate availability, load and take off.

Congrats on the FRA and LGW services. I am worried for the YYC-FRA service, hopefully that stays 789 and does not get downgraded. There a lot of YVR-FRA flyers using AC service through YYC in order to attain status and use upgrade points to get into the front cabins.

With the new LGW flight on rouge, will AC maintain the second YVR-LHR flight?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Seems like YVR-LGW will rotate with YYZ-LGW.. does that mean there are still 6x weekly Rouge flight unaccounted for?

I'm surprised there still slot to fit one more flight between 1000 and 1400...

Yes, this means YYZ-LGW has been reduced to only 4 weekly next summer. And, yes, there still appear to be unused frequencies... Perhaps not done yet?

Slots? They should be almost fully utilised now next summer during that time. Very very little wriggle room left.

Originally Posted by Cage

Congrats on the FRA and LGW services. I am worried for the YYC-FRA service, hopefully that stays 789 and does not get downgraded. There a lot of YVR-FRA flyers using AC service through YYC in order to attain status and use upgrade points to get into the front cabins.

With the new LGW flight on rouge, will AC maintain the second YVR-LHR flight?

The YVR-FRA launch has been on the cards for years. Another tick off the 2018 Network Opportunities map!

YYC-FRA should be safe from a downgauge. As for YYC with its new Int'l terminal, I'll bet the CAA was hoping AC would announce something new from there. They aren't giving YYC any love.

Right now the second YVR-LHR remains in the cards and is actually scheduled to be upgauged to a 789 from a 788 next summer. Of course this can change but AC is getting close to finalising summer 2017. Or perhaps the 789 is pulled and sent somewhere else?!

Plus we have TS increasing YVR-MAN to 3x weekly next summer (YYC-MAN cancelled).

We will see what Westjet does when they finalise 2017 as well... Will they increase YVR-LGW to daily?

UK August Stats for YVR-UK were just huge. All four routes showing gains and total traffic smashed through 100,000 pax just to London!! (LHR and LGW combined).

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/C..._Intl_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

All in all YVR-Europe will see another big summer next year for sure!

YVR's press release for the two new services...

http://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releases...-service-to-frankfurt-and-london-gatwick

[nname]

Originally Posted by Cage

A Call to Gate system would help maximize gate capacity issues.

Aircraft would arrive, unload, push to a remote stand for servicing and maintenance checks, pull onto new gate that is determined based on current gate availability, load and take off.

Right now all gate would have at least 2 or maybe even 3 flights within the time frame as each flight stay at gate for less than 2 hours. I don't think Call to Gate system would save much time over that with the extra cost of going to/from the remote stand....