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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2016, 4:18 PM
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Ottawa–Vanier provincial byelection set for Nov. 17

Residents in Ottawa–Vanier will be heading to the polls Nov. 17 to determine which candidate will fill Madeleine Meilleur's place.

Nominations will open on Oct. 27 and close on Nov. 3, according to Elections Ontario.

Claude Bisson, a former RCMP executive whose brother Gilles is a northern Ontario NDP MPP, is running for the New Democrats.

Nathalie DesRosiers, a University of Ottawa law school dean, is running for the Liberals.

André Marin, the province's former ombudsman, is running for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Green party has not yet chosen a candidate.

Meilleur resigned in June to spend more time with her family, she said at the time.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa...v-17-1.3811797


yeehaw!!
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2016, 11:32 PM
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The election was called jointly with Niagara West-Glanbrook, the seat vacated by Tim Hudak a few months ago.

This will be a very boring by-election season.. both seats are very unlikely to change hands.

A quick modelling exercise:

The current provincial polling average (as compiled by 308), shows that since the 2014 election, the Liberals are down 8.1 points, the PC are up 9.6 points, and the NDP are down 1.6 points--resulting in about a 10 point lead for the PCs overall, enough to be flirting with a majority should the numbers hold until 2018.

In the 2014 election in Ottawa-Vanier, the result was:
-Liberal: 55.6%
-PC: 22.3%
-NDP: 13.3%

By applying the provincewide shift since then to Ottawa-Vanier, we get:
-Liberal: 47.5%
-PC: 31.9%
-NDP: 11.7%

So even with the PCs on the brink of majority territory in provincewide polls, it's still not enough to make Ottawa-Vanier even remotely competitive. Aren't safe seats fun?

With those numbers, simply coming with 10 points of the Liberals would be a major "win" of sorts for the PCs.
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2016, 2:13 AM
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By-elections are weird, turnouts are low (probably extra-low in late November) and people are more likely to protest vote since it can't affect the government. Libs will probably still win (people in vanier would vote for trump if there was an L next to his name) but it may be close.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2016, 8:55 PM
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Reevely: Tories decry gun violence in Vanier … that doesn't exist
David Reevely
Published on: October 24, 2016 | Last Updated: October 24, 2016 2:54 PM EDT


Vanier has suffered because the provincial government cut funding for the Ottawa police force’s guns and gangs unit, Ottawa-Vanier Progressive Conservative candidate André Marin charged Monday morning, at a campaign event that failed in every important way.

“What I’ve heard from proud communities, from families, from businesses, is that people are worried. They’re afraid,” Marin said after a “roundtable discussion on community safety” at the Knights of Columbus hall on McArthur Avenue. “They’re afraid of walking out the door and being hit by a stray bullet. They’re scared about their loved ones, their sons and daughters, accidentally getting caught in the middle of crossfire.”

Well, that’s not really what the roundtable participants said. Aside from Brown, Marin and an organizer, the roundtable had:
  • financial planner Paul Drouin, whose business focuses on millionaire clients, said he wanted to open an office on Montreal Road but couldn’t because it’s too dangerous;
  • Boys and Girls Club manager Dan Rees (they have a Vanier clubhouse down the street), who said youth engagement is the key to heading off criminality before it begins;
  • a fellow named Hassan Elmi, billed as a “community volunteer,” who in halting English said he worries when he sees young people “moving around” unsupervised at night and on weekends;
  • entrepreneur Barkhad Bahdon (his courier company and his janitorial company are on Morrison Drive in Ottawa West-Nepean), who also said opportunity is the key to keeping young people out of gangs and lamented that so many people think badly of Vanier as a place to do business; and
    small-business promoter Yahya Mohamud, who lives in Ottawa West-Nepean and also talked about ending the cycle of poverty that leads young people who grow up on welfare to stay on it as adults.

They sat around a couple of folding tables pushed together in a cavernous room with Brown and Marin at the head. Each participant spoke for a minute or two. Drouin’s message was closest to Marin’s: he complained about street prostitution and the criminality he and his wife witness on Sunday afternoons after church, the likes of which people who don’t live in Vanier wouldn’t believe. Vanier is treated like the “bastard child” of Ottawa, he said, and he’s tired of it.

But the recurring theme was that young people need opportunity. Education, mentoring, productive things to do, chances to learn and to prove themselves.

“You’ve got to give them that power,” Bahdon said. “When they graduate from university, or they graduate from high school, there’s no future for them. Their parents live on assistance … There has to be something that the youth have to look forward to.”

No doubt Brown and Marin are keen on youth employment. But they talked about gunfire.

“As of today, Ottawa has experienced 57 shootings. It’s the highest ever. When you have a number like that — not just in Vanier, but you can see a disproportionate amount of shootings in Vanier — we have to look at this, we have to have this conversation,” Brown said.

We have to tackle serious crime before we can move onto more minor matters, Marin agreed. “A fish rots from the head,” he said.

They were flanked by placards the party had made up, plotting each of the 57 incidents this year (some in which people have been hit, some not) on a map of Ottawa. None of them has been in Vanier.

I’ll say that again. Complaining about Liberal neglect leading to gun violence in Vanier this year, the politicians put up maps showing no gun violence in Vanier this year.

The two agreed that what’s needed is strings-attached funding, forcing the police to put the money into the anti-gang unit whether the force wants to or not.

The provincial Liberals did this year reduce a grant program that paid for guns-and-gangs cops across Ontario. In 2015, the Provincial Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy was worth $600,000 to the Ottawa Police Service. In 2016, the province cut that roughly in half. At the same time, however, the province took over paying for the police who guard the courthouse here. That upload was worth $617,000.

Even if the guns-and-gangs funding had been cut entirely, Ottawa would have been $17,000 ahead. As it turned out, the net increase was closer to $350,000. Not as much as it would have been if the Liberals had preserved the gangs funding and uploaded the courthouse-security costs, it’s true, but it’s still more money, and the force was free to decide how best to spend it.

Chief Charles Bordeleau chose to put funding into street-level community policing and the police board approved. The force is hiring 25 additional officers this year and another 25 next year.

So let’s sum up: The Tory leader and his star candidate in Ottawa-Vanier held a community meeting that included almost nobody from the community, ignored what little they heard from attendees, fed the stereotype that Vanier’s a hellhole, and implied the police chief and the board that oversees him are doing their jobs wrong.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...t-doesnt-exist

----------------

At no point in the three years I've lived in this neighbourhood have I been afraid of catching a bullet. My gripes with the neighbourhood are middle-aged crackheads, hookers, and johns... not teen gangsters.....
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2016, 10:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spoonsy View Post
Reevely: Tories decry gun violence in Vanier … that doesn't exist
David Reevely
Published on: October 24, 2016 | Last Updated: October 24, 2016 2:54 PM EDT


Vanier has suffered because the provincial government cut funding for the Ottawa police force’s guns and gangs unit, Ottawa-Vanier Progressive Conservative candidate André Marin charged Monday morning, at a campaign event that failed in every important way.

“What I’ve heard from proud communities, from families, from businesses, is that people are worried. They’re afraid,” Marin said after a “roundtable discussion on community safety” at the Knights of Columbus hall on McArthur Avenue. “They’re afraid of walking out the door and being hit by a stray bullet. They’re scared about their loved ones, their sons and daughters, accidentally getting caught in the middle of crossfire.”
Wow. Just wow.

Was he also wearing a "Make Vanier Great Again" ball cap?
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2016, 10:28 PM
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At least his proposed solution to the supposed "crime epidemic" resolves around root causes like youth problems and such and not the typical populist "tough on crime" nonsense.
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  #47  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 4:41 AM
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Wow. Just wow.

Was he also wearing a "Make Vanier Great Again" ball cap?
BRB, making MVGA ball caps (and thongs)
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  #48  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 1:06 PM
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The riding has had 13 shootings this year.

http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/community/o...tawa-shootings

I wish the media would stop ignoring the 85% of the riding that isn't vanier.
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  #49  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 1:14 PM
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The riding has had 13 shootings this year.

http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/community/o...tawa-shootings

I wish the media would stop ignoring the 85% of the riding that isn't vanier.
So there have been no shootings this year in the Vatican-esque square mile of territory that used to be the City of Vanier. This is quite surprising.

It's true that the media also take shortcuts and label anything in that vicinity "Vanier" even if it isn't. Incidents in Overbrook and Manor Park and even as far east as Cummings Ave. are often attributed to Vanier.

Case in point - Brittany Dr., near Montreal Rd. and St. Laurent. Not in Vanier.

http://www.iheartradio.ca/580-cfra/n...ting-1.2012424
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  #50  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 1:20 PM
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So there have been no shootings this year in the Vatican-esque square mile of territory that used to be the City of Vanier. This is quite surprising.

It's true that the media also take shortcuts and label anything in that vicinity "Vanier" even if it isn't. Incidents in Overbrook and Manor Park and even as far east as Cummings Ave. are often attributed to Vanier.

Case in point - Brittany Dr., near Montreal Rd. and St. Laurent. Not in Vanier.

http://www.iheartradio.ca/580-cfra/n...ting-1.2012424
One never knows, but when I see a sudden, unexplained drop in violence from one year to the next, my first thought is that somebody has been able to impose unchallenged control over their "turf".

Describing Brittany/Montreal Rd as "Vanier" is indeed strange and telling of local views.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
The riding has had 13 shootings this year.

http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/community/o...tawa-shootings

I wish the media would stop ignoring the 85% of the riding that isn't vanier.
Vanier itself has not.

The politicians repeatedly referred to shootings IN VANIER.

This is at best a mistake, and at worst a lie, and whether on purpose or accidentally, continues to stigmatize a neighbourhood whose reality is FAARRRRR removed from the reputation that was cast in the 1980s.

And in the broader picture it isn't even the larger Ottawa-Vanier riding that contains the hotbed of shootings in Ottawa! Try Heron Road or out by Britannia.
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 11:01 PM
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One never knows, but when I see a sudden, unexplained drop in violence from one year to the next, my first thought is that somebody has been able to impose unchallenged control over their "turf".
The uptick in shootings and stabbings in the past few years is pretty much entirely gang warfare, so that would make sense.

Because it's gang warfare, it does necessitate a different response from a typical crime wave. It's not so much of a public safety concern because the ordinary public aren't really at risk; it's more of a youth marginalization concern. As such the responsibilities of responding to it fall on social workers, not police officers.
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 11:02 PM
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One never knows, but when I see a sudden, unexplained drop in violence from one year to the next, my first thought is that somebody has been able to impose unchallenged control over their "turf".

Describing Brittany/Montreal Rd as "Vanier" is indeed strange and telling of local views.
For years, any time there was any violent crime east of the Chateau Laurier and west of the Brownbelt, the local press called it "Vanier". Even areas which are clearly not Vanier, like the Market, Lowertown, even the judge who was murdered in a Hurdman apartment tower. "Vanier". It's like it can't be a crime unless it's "Vanier".

Similar problem exists with compiling crime stats by city ward. The Rideau-Vanier ward includes the Market, where a good chunk of drunken violent crime takes place. But the media and its audience gets as far as the word "Vanier" in "Rideau-Vanier", and tunes out.
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 11:04 PM
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So there have been no shootings this year in the Vatican-esque square mile of territory that used to be the City of Vanier. This is quite surprising.
* To a non-resident, perhaps.

Quote:
It's true that the media also take shortcuts and label anything in that vicinity "Vanier" even if it isn't. Incidents in Overbrook and Manor Park and even as far east as Cummings Ave. are often attributed to Vanier.

Case in point - Brittany Dr., near Montreal Rd. and St. Laurent. Not in Vanier.
I have seen criminal acts as far west as the shadow of the Chateau Laurier, and as far east as Jasmine Crescent, and as far south as Hurdman, described as having happened in "Vanier".

It's one thing to be a little hazy on where Vanier ends and Overbrook picks up, but that's just sloppy and cheap.
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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2016, 11:26 PM
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Vanier itself has not.

The politicians repeatedly referred to shootings IN VANIER.

This is at best a mistake, and at worst a lie, and whether on purpose or accidentally, continues to stigmatize a neighbourhood whose reality is FAARRRRR removed from the reputation that was cast in the 1980s.

And in the broader picture it isn't even the larger Ottawa-Vanier riding that contains the hotbed of shootings in Ottawa! Try Heron Road or out by Britannia.
Yes, we agree.
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  #56  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2016, 3:53 AM
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* To a non-resident, perhaps.

.

It's still a fairly rough and tumble area. My sister-in-law lived there until about two years ago.

When we moved her in one afternoon, the neighbours periodically threw garbage over the fence at us. They seemed to find that funny.

Some parts are better, some parts are worse. This was an area I'd describe as middling.
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  #57  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2016, 6:24 AM
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My sister lives around Marier & Peres-Blancs in the north end of Vanier and while there's plenty of weed smoking going on, the area is pretty safe and quiet.
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  #58  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2016, 2:48 PM
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I lived in Vanier for 7 years on Montfort St. It was pretty quiet. Never felt unsafe walking outside. Only called the cops twice. Now I've since been living a couple blocks from Jasmine Cr, and I still don't fear for my safety.
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  #59  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2016, 3:00 PM
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The area I was talking about was in the Deschamps-Émond-Hannah area. Not super nice but not as bad as Blake which is probably the worst part of Vanier.

The nicest parts of Vanier are Mark and Coupal, etc. just north of the corner of Montreal Rd. and River Rd. That area is actually tony.

The Granville-Bédard area sandwiched in between parkland and cemeteries is pretty nice too, and around Pauline-Charron it's almost like suburbia in the middle of the inner city.
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  #60  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2016, 9:41 PM
Uhuniau Uhuniau is offline
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My sister lives around Marier & Peres-Blancs in the north end of Vanier and while there's plenty of weed smoking going on, the area is pretty safe and quiet.
There is plenty of weed smoking going on EVERYWHERE these days!
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