Stadiums and Arenas of Canada part 2

[Dalreg]

Have I grouped Saskatchewan and Regina? Your words not mine.

Anyone can throw numbers out to justify anything. I'm just amazed at how easy you constantly chop and change.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Anyone can throw numbers out to justify anything. I'm just amazed at how easy you constantly chop and change.

I think his point is that there are different hypothetical types of markets for teams, not that all of these places are demographically equivalent. Some teams can be based mostly in a city while others can have or require wider regional support.

When it comes to the Maritimes there's very little in the way of pro sports and the region is geographically small. The NB border is about 1.5 hours from the Halifax airport site (maybe 1:45 from Dartmouth Crossing) and PEI is a little over 2 hours away. There isn't any reason to believe that a team based in one part of the Maritimes wouldn't attract support from people in other areas, even across provincial boundaries. That is less true in some other parts of Canada where the neighbouring areas already have teams or where the provincial border is many hours away.

I'm not sure what to think about Vancouver Island and the CFL. The island has a small population but most of it is clustered around Victoria-Nanaimo. There are a lot of people on the mainland who could attend games but that is a bit of a double-edged sword since that probably means there are already people on the island who are fans of Vancouver's team. It seems like the CFL itself mostly talks about expansion teams in Halifax and Quebec City. I think part of the reason for this is that Atlantic Canada has no team but BC already has one. Quebec City also for better or worse seems more focused on the NHL lately, not that the powers that be in Halifax are particularly focused on a CFL stadium either.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by someone123

Here is a bit of Halifax stadium news that probably didn't make it to the Canada section:

Interesting tidbit. The 20-25K figure is interesting, that would put it broadly in line with the other new/renovated eastern division stadiums. It would be cool to see something on the scale of Tim Hortons Field in Halifax.

As to the expansion thing, Halifax is the only place that strikes me as a pretty natural fit. Regina having a CFL team is a bit of a weird historical quirk in much the same way how Green Bay has a NFL team... it wouldn't happen today if those leagues were starting from scratch. That's why I don't think a city like Victoria would be a prospect. I think Halifax is the only place in Canada where you could realistically expect to build a stadium and set up an immediately thriving team with support from throughout the community. Quebec could be another but between the Rouge et Or's monopoly on football and the NHL chase going on there, I don't think the timing is right.

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Have I grouped Saskatchewan and Regina? Your words not mine.

Anyone can throw numbers out to justify anything. I'm just amazed at how easy you constantly chop and change.

I'm just comparing Victoria and Vancouver island to other market situations. Easy fella

In the end all I'm hinting to is if the riders can regularly pull 33K with a provincial population of 1.1M in a city of 200K Than, it's not unfeasible for the island with 750k to pull 24k in a city of 350k.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

I'm just comparing Victoria and Vancouver island to other market situations. Easy fella

In the end all I'm hinting to is if the riders can regularly pull 33K with a provincial population of 1.1M in a city of 200K Than, it's not unfeasible for the island with 750k to pull 24k in a city of 350k.

The Riders play in a market steeped in football where the team is probably one of the most prominent symbols of provincial identity. The fact that the Riders have been for the most part the only pro team of any kind in the province certainly doesn't hurt.

A team in Victoria wouldn't really have any of that going for it. I think it would be a struggle to get V. Islanders to buy in.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

- There has been a sense that because Halifax is a smaller city a CFL team there would have to appeal to the rest of the region to be successful. This might be true in terms of getting people to watch on TV and buy merchandise but it's probably not a good reason to pick a site that's farther out of the city. Most of the people buying tickets and attending will be coming from the city. And actually Halifax itself is fairly central to the population of NS and of the Maritimes as a whole. It doesn't make sense to increase local travel times by 200% so you can reduce travel times for smaller towns 2 hours away by 20%.

I think this is a pretty good point. As popular as they are across the province, the vast majority of fans at Riders games are still from Regina. I think it's 75-80% or maybe even more.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

Half of the population of the Maritimes is in NS though (and 2/3 of that is within about an hour of where the stadium in Halifax would be). So it's not really mathematically possible for Halifax to be central for NS and then nowhere near central for the Maritimes as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised if the population centroid for the Maritimes were in, say, the Minas Basin. If you constrained it to be somewhere with road access it would probably end up someplace like Truro along NS highway 102, a 40 minute drive from one of the proposed Halifax stadium sites. That is what I mean by "fairly central"; much more central than someplace like Yarmouth.

The population centroid would be around Truro? Really!! Only 51.5% of the Maritimes population is in NS. I think by any measure the population centroid would therefore be just to the east of the NB/NS border, maybe Amherst but since I'm a generous fellow, I'll give you Springhill. Springhill is about 180 km NW of Halifax by car (and about 100 km from Moncton).

Meanwhile, the actual geographic centre of the Maritimes (by my doing a rough cartographic estimate on Google Earth) is likely in the dense bush somewhere 40 km NW of Moncton. There are many places in the Maritimes that are far, far away from Halifax. Arguing that Halifax is central to the Maritimes is akin to arguing that Vancouver is central to BC.

Originally Posted by someone123

Beyond that if you look at things like disposable income instead of just population Halifax is going to stand out even more. Employment income in the Halifax CMA is pretty close to that of all of New Brunswick. That is just a statistic, not civic hubris. In the same way, there are Canadian cities which are more populated than all of the Maritimes and those ones have already had CFL teams for a long time.

A fallacious argument. Total income may be a lot higher in Halifax, but I would argue that when you factor in the higher cost of living in the regional metropole, that disposable income in much of NB would end up being similar to or greater than in Halifax. There certainly seem to be a lot of NBers with vacation properties and/or RVs that I know of; certainly more than I know in Halifax where housing costs are significantly higher..........

[craner]

Encouraging news out of Halifax to be sure, especially with the indications of a stadium AND CFL team part of the package.
Halifax is far and away the only real option to host the team in the Maritimes.

As for another team in BC - I think Kelowna is a better option than Victoria.

So expand to Halifax for now to get to 10 teams and then bring on QC and Kelowna down the road.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think this is a pretty good point. As popular as they are across the province, the vast majority of fans at Riders games are still from Regina. I think it's 75-80% or maybe even more.

Correct. There's relatively few Saskatchewanians from outside of Regina who go to games regularly and I am sure they could fill up the stadium with fans from Regina and the surrounding area alone.

But on the flipside, everyone in Saskatchewan has a piece of merchandise even if they don't go to any games. Most people are, at their worst, still supporters of the team. I am unsure of whether a Maritime team can duplicate the Riders' ability to convince fans to drive four hours to attend a game, but they have to duplicate their success at branding themselves as the team in the area. Even if people from NB don't make the trek to Halifax to see a game, if they're buying merchandise then the team would still be (I'd argue) in the top half of the league in terms of success.

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by craner

Encouraging news out of Halifax to be sure, especially with the indications of a stadium AND CFL team part of the package.
Halifax is far and away the only real option to host the team in the Maritimes.

As for another team in BC - I think Kelowna is a better option than Victoria.

So expand to Halifax for now to get to 10 teams and then bring on QC and Kelowna down the road.

Kelowna? A city of 100K? You're gonna ask for a quarter of your city to show up for a CFL game 9 times a year? how much cooperate sponsorship exists in a city with a metro of 170K? Sports economics is probably not your thing.

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by esquire

The Riders play in a market steeped in football where the team is probably one of the most prominent symbols of provincial identity. The fact that the Riders have been for the most part the only pro team of any kind in the province certainly doesn't hurt.

A team in Victoria wouldn't really have any of that going for it. I think it would be a struggle to get V. Islanders to buy in.

At the same time The "islanders" would be the only pro sports team available without a trip to the mainland. It also gives the island a sense of identity. Not arguing with you at all. I'm not saying it would or wouldn't work. But a football stadium which would need to be largely or full covered wouldn't come cheap. You cant build an THF or TD place in that climate. So that's a big hurdle. And cooperate support is another big question, Victoria is largely navy and tourism

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

Kelowna? A city of 100K? You're gonna ask for a quarter of your city to show up for a CFL game 9 times a year? how much cooperate sponsorship exists in a city with a metro of 170K? Sports economics is probably not your thing.

How many other big cities are there in the area? I know Penticton, Kamloops and Vernon are within driving distance, but that only adds around 120K to the potential marketbase.

[The S'toon Goon]

If I am not mistaken, Kelowna is the center of the Okanagan Region which is roughly 350,000 people. Roughly the same as Victoria metro. I'd say that either offer a pretty good base for a team. Success would be determined on how far the reach can go. If Victoria could convert the rest of Vancouver Island (roughly 750,000) to jump on their wagon they would have an edge forsure. Kelowna might be able to sway places like Kamloops, Merrit, Salmon Arm but I think at best that would be 500,000 people total. Both are unlikely anytime soon.

It is encouraging to hear some news regarding Halifax though. We are long over due for an Atlantic team! A balanced 10 team league would be fantastic.

Solidify ten teams, then worry about Quebec and another BC team.

[Oilkountry]

How about portland and st loius?

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

How about portland and st loius?

No American teams. Can Canada not have one league that's actually Canadian?

Besides, we're talking stadiums and arenas in Canada; the addition of American teams would not directly add to the number of stadiums in Canada. Indirectly... maybe... if it were successful, but then again, if it's successful, it could knock smaller Canadian centres out of contention.

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by Nathan

No American teams. Can Canada not have one league that's actually Canadian?

Besides, we're talking stadiums and arenas in Canada; the addition of American teams would not directly add to the number of stadiums in Canada. Indirectly... maybe... if it were successful, but then again, if it's successful, it could knock smaller Canadian centres out of contention.

Fair enough. Trust me I've always taken pride in the fact that Canada has a domestic league that doesn't have to ride the coat tails of any american markets. But It would be really cool to have a 12-14 team league one day and I don't see that happening in my life time without US markets.

[cjones2451]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

Fair enough. Trust me I've always taken pride in the fact that Canada has a domestic league that doesn't have to ride the coat tails of any american markets. But It would be really cool to have a 12-14 team league one day and I don't see that happening in my life time without US markets.

The other big issue is US Anti Trust laws so they would not have to adhere to Canadian content rule. Not a level playing field with Canadian teams

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Some of you might be a tad young to recall the CFL's expansion to the US - needless to say, it was a dark time for the league. Things were grim before expansion and got worse after.

The CFL will always be a bit of an odd duck. Nine teams is probably the extent to which the league can grow. There are no other untapped markets north of the border. Halifax is intriguing simply because of their relative success with collegiate football over the decades but that won't necessarily translate to the CFL - it is football on a much smaller scale and all those long-standing rivalries can't be replicated etc. It's a market but I'm not sure it's a strong market.

While 10 teams would be nice, Halifax would likely struggle as a CFL market - this league can't afford to prop anyone up. As for Kelowna, Victoria, Saskatoon, K-W or any other out of left field options, don't forget that the CFL is a 'major league.' Those cities are not serious contenders for professional football - sorry. And don't point to Regina as an example of a smaller market ergo Victoria could pull it off. There's been professional ball in Regina for many, many decades and interest (i.e. revenue) has grown with the league.

[SaskScraper]

I'd love to see at least an even ten teams in the CFL.

Halifax is the most logical choice unless Quebec City were to come around with interest in the CFL. Victoria or Kelowna doesn't have as much football history, definitely not steeped in it like Saskatchewan with more Canadian Junior Football Championships than all the other Canadian Provinces combined.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Junior_Football_League

Can't rule Saskatoon out either though, that city seems to be a burgeoning market for pro sports with the Saskatchewan Rush Lacrosse team finishing with more spectators in each of it's final games last season than the Toronto Argos football team did last year on average.

That leaves Halifax.. One thing mentioned earlier is watering down the league and possibly have more teams to prop up. The Eastern Division as it is a bit of a weak link in the league. As it stands tonight, The Ticats and RedBlacks are at the top of the East Division with only 7 wins each, If the Riders, with their dismal season, were in the East they would still be in contention for Playoffs with their 5 wins. Adding another Eastern team may make for an even weaker Eastern Division.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

Can't rule Saskatoon out either though, that city seems to be a burgeoning market for pro sports with the Saskatchewan Rush Lacrosse team finishing with more spectators in each of it's final games last season than the Toronto Argos football team did last year on average.

People talk about Saskatoon as a potential market but I just don't see the demand. We're notoriously bad for supporting our own teams and I'd say the Rush are the exception for a variety of reasons. Given the choice between the Riders and our own team, I think many people would prefer the Riders.

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

While 10 teams would be nice, Halifax would likely struggle as a CFL market - this league can't afford to prop anyone up. As for Kelowna, Victoria, Saskatoon, K-W or any other out of left field options, don't forget that the CFL is a 'major league.' Those cities are not serious contenders for professional football - sorry. And don't point to Regina as an example of a smaller market ergo Victoria could pull it off. There's been professional ball in Regina for many, many decades and interest (i.e. revenue) has grown with the league.

Why would Halifax struggle? You mentioned the lack of professional football but I don't see that as a problem. If there is a tradition of football at any level it is going to help the team, not weaken it. As long as the team is competitive relatively quickly a'la the REDBLACKS I don't think they would struggle at all.