YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Now they've got CDG back 3 x per week.

Right now Summer 2017 is:

LGW 7pw
MAN 3pw
AMS 3pw (1 via YYC)
CDG 3pw
GLA 1pw

YVR-FCO, YYC-MAN and YYC-CDG are gone though.

I've never seen TS flip flop this much... perhaps a new system of doing things.

YYC

[nname]

Originally Posted by casper

Same problem exists if you book online. If you book a flight on Air Canada that includes a Lufthansa or United connection, you can't pick the seats on the Air Canada site. You need to get the locator and go to the other airlines website.

All said, I don't know how the flight is doing. I also hope they are filling it up.

Checking the current seat map, the first 3 flights have on average about 65% LF in Y, 70% in PY, 70% in J... I don't think its really that bad for the first week of service? I remember I checked the first few flights for BNE and its worse than this.

YYZ-DEL over the same period have about 75% LF in Y, 80% PY, and 75% in J

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Checking the current seat map, the first 3 flights have on average about 65% LF in Y, 70% LF in PY, 70% LF in J... I don't think its really that bad for the first week of service? I remember I checked the first few flights for BNE and its worse than this.

So hard to tell from seat maps... Been on many flights where the seat map was virtually empty the day or two before only to board a full flight. Some airlines (SQ is a good example) that actually blocks so many seats ahead of time so when the seat map eventually "opens" all of a sudden tons of seats... Only to be full again by flight time.

For anyone who wants to see how YVR-Australia flights are doing... Australia releases these stats monthly... Lots of fun for stats geeks and avgeeks...

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

So hard to tell from seat maps... Been on many flights where the seat map was virtually empty the day or two before only to board a full flight. Some airlines (SQ is a good example) that actually blocks so many seats ahead of time so when the seat map eventually "opens" all of a sudden tons of seats... Only to be full again by flight time.

For anyone who wants to see how YVR-Australia flights are doing... Australia releases these stats monthly... Lots of fun for stats geeks and avgeeks...

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

I think for AC, if you choose the most expensive fare option, you can access all the blocked seats (first 5 rows).. especially so close to the departure date..

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I think for AC, if you choose the most expensive fare option, you can access all the blocked seats (first 5 rows).. especially so close to the departure date..

That's also assuming every single passenger reserves an advance seat. Sometimes I do sometimes I don't depending on class of service etc...

[mezzanine]

More press about YVR-DEL. If J bookings are brisk, that's a good sign.

“It’s imperative [that business class seats sell],” said Kevin Howlett, Air Canada’s senior vice-president of regional markets and government relations. “That’s the section of the aircraft that generates the most revenue.”

...

Vancouver chef Vikram Vij designed most of the menu and will provide much of the food served on the plane. Vancouver chef David Hawksworth will also have some of his creations on offer for business-class passengers.

...

Still, a week before the inaugural flight, economy and premium economy tickets remained available, despite plenty of outreach between Air Canada and the local South Asian community.

...

Howlett would not speculate on how likely it will be that the Vancouver route will become daily but he noted that when the airline launched flights between Toronto and Delhi last November, the flights started at four times per week.

Those flights, which are year-round, are now daily, and the airline has announced that it will launch thrice-weekly flights between Toronto and Mumbai in July 2017.

When asked if Vancouver could get non-stop flights to Mumbai, Howlett laughed and said, “let’s make sure Delhi works first.”

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/10/air-canada-tests-vancouvers-new-passage-india/

[Vagabond]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

More press about YVR-DEL. If J bookings are brisk, that's a good sign.




https://www.biv.com/article/2016/10/air-canada-tests-vancouvers-new-passage-india/

The one factor that no one seems to be talking about is that demand in J for YVR-DEL is likely to be driven primarily by wealthy Indo-Canadians and not corporate travellers. BC's business with India is either focused on mineral exports (which are largely brokered through third parties or, at least, outside India) or on small-scale, exploratory, deals and partnerships involving SMEs. Neither will stimulate business travel to the extent that would support a regular, year-round flight, and certainly not to Delhi. I would even argue that AC's upcoming YYZ-BOM flight is probably better suited to many YVR-based business travellers headed to India than YVR-DEL. Despite claims to the contrary in the BIV article, AC72 does not offer competitive connections to almost any other Indian city, so it's really only a useful option for people travelling to Delhi or the Punjab. While BOM and BLR are dramatically smaller markets for traffic ex-YVR, I would argue that in J the spread is probably much more even. This is the main potential flaw in the plan, and it could be a biggie.

Back to my original point, I've noticed (anecdotally) that many wealthy Indo-Canadians are quite partial to the One World carriers to/from India (BA/CX/JAL) so it will be interesting to see if they can be lured into the arms of AC and Star Alliance with the non-stop.

Just my two cents!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Vagabond

Back to my original point, I've noticed (anecdotally) that many wealthy Indo-Canadians are quite partial to the One World carriers to/from India (BA/CX/JAL) so it will be interesting to see if they can be lured into the arms of AC and Star Alliance with the non-stop.

Just my two cents!

Completely agree with this statement. BA, primarily, but also CX have had years and years to establish great relationships. My anecdotal evidence spans back years ago but BA without a doubt had some very strong relationships with various groups that were built up over time. Including significant F class travel. This will be a hard nut to crack. I'm sure BA, CX and JL among others have been preparing for this inevitable day forever and a day. I reckon it's game on!

However.... and also agree with your first paragraph analysis... with the additional points...

The "problem" with YVR-India is that over 75% of the traffic is heading to DEL or the Punjab. And we all know it's very heavy VFR. Whereas in Toronto's case, not only is the total market over 3x that of YVR, its traffic flows are much more diverse. Even though YYZ-DEL still makes up approx 40% of total YYZ-India traffic, approx 60% is going elsewhere. Basically, YYZ-BOM is a much much bigger market than YVR-BOM. Mumbai may be the financial centre of India, but this doesn't change the fact the YVR-BOM market is tiny. Less than 15% of the total YVR-India numbers. Even with the higher premium potential like you mentioned... highly unlikely this will happen for a very long time. That's just the uniqueness of the Vancouver-India market. So perhaps the wealthier travelers heading to BOM or BLR, who still require a connection anyway, will continue to opt for the One World options they have been doing for years.

AC is targeting the three largest Canadian Indian markets YYZ-DEL, YVR-DEL and YYZ-BOM (in order of size although 2 and 3 are very close) no other Canadian market even comes close to these numbers so it does make sense if they were going to fly three routes, these are the three.
Again, YVR's proximity to SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, YYC and YEG will help make this route a success if it actually does succeed. I hope it does!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Vagabond

Back to my original point, I've noticed (anecdotally) that many wealthy Indo-Canadians are quite partial to the One World carriers to/from India (BA/CX/JAL) so it will be interesting to see if they can be lured into the arms of AC and Star Alliance with the non-stop.

Just my two cents!

My 4 cents, then!! I think you made a very good point about the Bombay market. That's the financial hub of India, and may one day warrant a flight from YVR if this one sells.
As for wealthy Indians preferring BA/CX/JAL .... if the premium classes on this new route offer a good product, then they might just switch happily. ... Why? ...
.... Up until now, they have been obliged to change planes, however wealthy they are. If AC can muster up a snazzy offering, a nonstop from YVR might be an overnight hit!!
Wouldn't it be smashing if this flight went 'big time unexpectedly. If AC can snazz up its 'pedestrian,' colorless feeling, that might just happen.

[jmt18325]

I would think they'd go daily to YYZ first though, from financial capital to financial capital.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Vagabond

The one factor that no one seems to be talking about is that demand in J for YVR-DEL is likely to be driven primarily by wealthy Indo-Canadians and not corporate travellers. BC's business with India is either focused on mineral exports (which are largely brokered through third parties or, at least, outside India) or on small-scale, exploratory, deals and partnerships involving SMEs. Neither will stimulate business travel to the extent that would support a regular, year-round flight, and certainly not to Delhi. I would even argue that AC's upcoming YYZ-BOM flight is probably better suited to many YVR-based business travellers headed to India than YVR-DEL. Despite claims to the contrary in the BIV article, AC72 does not offer competitive connections to almost any other Indian city, so it's really only a useful option for people travelling to Delhi or the Punjab. While BOM and BLR are dramatically smaller markets for traffic ex-YVR, I would argue that in J the spread is probably much more even. This is the main potential flaw in the plan, and it could be a biggie.

Back to my original point, I've noticed (anecdotally) that many wealthy Indo-Canadians are quite partial to the One World carriers to/from India (BA/CX/JAL) so it will be interesting to see if they can be lured into the arms of AC and Star Alliance with the non-stop.

Just my two cents!

IMO, there is a special connection with BA as I suspect many indo-canadians have extended family in the UK and allows for an easy extended lay-over.

Otherwise, if I were AC, I wouldn't worry so much about other oneworld as much as I would worry about the twice-daily emirates flights from SEA. That would be a big factor wrt success with YVR-[all of india].

I'm optimistic. AC should at least be able to maintain this seasonally, and I have a good feeling that this may go year-round - maybe not daily, but year-round.

[Johnny Aussie]

https://www.destinationcanada.com/sites/default/files/2016-10/Snapshot_Aug16_EN.pdf

YVR a huge contributor to this growth. Some phenomenal numbers! YVR is leading the country in % growth by a wide margin for International arrivals. This chart seems to correlate with new YVR services too... take that with a grain of salt!! And based on everything coming online this is unlikely to change.

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.sleepinginairports.net/2016/best-airports-north-america.htm

#7 worldwide though.... But still!! Not a bad placing amongst that group!

[nname]

Just saw a post of tentative schedule for KMG-NKG-YVR route that is planned to start on around Dec 15th:

MU215 KMG1855 - 2140NKG2350 - 1910YVR 33E 257
MU216 YVR0130 - 0500+1NKG0825+1 - 1120+1KMG 33E 247

Not sure how reliable this information is... but I got info for CAN-YYZ route from the same place and it seems to be correct... If that's indeed the schedule, then KMG-PVG-YVR would move to 136?

-------------
On the other hand, noticed YVR-DEL is now full in Y for the fight on the 20th... well at least its no longer selling Y ticket anymore...

[deasine]

Interesting piece in the Vancouver Sun around airport privatization getting increasingly more discussion. Only YUL has really supported such a move, but now beginning to hear other voices on this debate.

City of Vancouver joins chorus of opposition to YVR sale

DERRICK PENNER
More from Derrick Penner
Published on: October 18, 2016 | Last Updated: October 18, 2016 6:28 PM PDT
The Vancouver Airport Authority Board CEO Craig Richmond is opposed to selling the airport to private interests.
The Vancouver Airport Authority Board CEO Craig Richmond is opposed to selling the airport to private interests. RIC ERNST / PNG
SHARE
ADJUST
COMMENT
PRINT
The City of Vancouver has lined up as an ally to the Vancouver Airport Authority’s lobby against a feared federal sell off of Canada’s biggest airports to private interests, including the not-for-profit YVR.

That fear was sparked by a recommendation to move Canada’s biggest airports “to a share-capital structure,” to obtain “equity-based financing,” in a review of the federal Transportation Act led by former federal cabinet minister David Emerson.

A sell off would lead to less local control over the facility and potentially reduced services and higher fees as a buyer seeks to pay back its equity and earn a return, said YVR boss Craig Richmond.

“That money would have to come from somewhere,” Richmond said.

“It’s hard to know exactly, but having been out in that private airport world, (YVR) could easily go for four, five, even more billion dollars,” Richmond said. “To pay that back, that’s hundreds of millions of dollars that comes out of the airport to pay the new shareholders and debt holders.”

And Tuesday, Vancouver City Council voted to add its voice to YVR’s opposition with a letter to Transportation Minister Marc Garneau rejecting a potential move to private share structure on a motion from Coun. Geoff Meggs.

Meggs said that while the airport authority is a private, not-for-profit entity, it has local representation and is responsive to local needs, which he doubts would be the case if it were “in the hands of bondholders in Geneva.”

“As well, (YVR) is very efficient economically so we don’t want to take any chances with that,” Meggs said. His motion to write the letter passed unanimously.

The review of the federal Transportation Act that resulted in the recommendation was commissioned under the tenure of former prime minister Stephen Harper.

However, the report has gained currency under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government as a means to help finance the billions of dollars needed for the government’s hoped-for federal infrastructure bank.

Garneau called for a review of Emerson’s recommendations, including moving the larger airports to a private-share structure, and that effort is ongoing, said Transport Canada spokeswoman Natasha Gauthier.

Most recently, Gauthier said in an emailed statement that Garneau has held “a roundtable” discussion to hear public opinions on airport ownership and the department will continue to engage with the provinces, stakeholders, citizens and First Nations.

“Next steps will be based on the best interests of Canadian middle-class travellers,” Gauthier wrote.

However, Richmond fears that converting those facilities from the not-for-profit corporations that they are now to private, for-profit operations would come with a cost.

He argued that YVR has already been privatized. The federal government’s national airports policy of the 1990s made Canada’s 26 largest airports not-for-profit corporations on long-term leases with the government, and as such Richmond argued that YVR has already gained a lot of efficiencies that come with privatization.

At the same time, he said YVR has poured its earnings, some $3.1 billion, back into capital improvements at YVR.

“Let’s be clear about who’s paid for that,” Richmond said. “It’s the people of B.C.,” through YVR’s airport improvement fee and other levies.

If the facility were expropriated and sold off to private investors, he argued “you’ll end up paying for it again.”

[email protected]

twitter.com/derrickpenner

Vancouver Sun http://vancouversun.com/business/local-b...r-joins-chorus-of-opposition-to-yvr-sale

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

https://www.destinationcanada.com/sites/default/files/2016-10/Snapshot_Aug16_EN.pdf

YVR a huge contributor to this growth. Some phenomenal numbers! YVR leading the country by a wide margin for International arrivals. This chart seems to correlate with new YVR services too... take that with a grain of salt!! And based on everything coming online this is unlikely to change.

Do you mean by a wide margin in percentage terms?

[west1266]

Maybe someone knows the answer to my question...if the government sold off the airports would that open up the entire airline market in Canada. I can't see how they could prevent any airline from flying in and out of these newly privatized airports.

Maybe someone knows the pros and cons of such a move and can share them with us.

Would such a move stall the expansion of the Vancouver terminal?

[jmt18325]

Selling the airports would have nothing to do with agreements between countries relating to skies regulation.

[MalcolmTucker]

If the City of Vancouver wants to control the airport, they could always buy it.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by west1266

Maybe someone knows the answer to my question...if the government sold off the airports would that open up the entire airline market in Canada. I can't see how they could prevent any airline from flying in and out of these newly privatized airports.

Wouldn't open the airline market.

Originally Posted by west1266

Maybe someone knows the pros and cons of such a move and can share them with us.

This is a very tough question to answer. Theoretically (and I stress in theory), government-run assets are expensive and have high costs and privatisation should bring in lower costs. However, airports are generally monopolies or have monopolistic power and thus are not necessarily always incentivised to pass these lower costs to the consumer.

I do not believe privatisation in Vancouver specifically will bring in significantly lower overhead costs. Airports in North America are essentially landlords, with airlines, handling agents, and service authorities acting as tenants. Security is not run by the airport, customs is not, heck in Vancouver's case, much of its on-the-ground workforce are volunteers: there aren't many opportunities to continue shaving costs down.

Originally Posted by west1266

Would such a move stall the expansion of the Vancouver terminal?

Potentially. Theoretically shareholders would want to maximise infrastructure use to lower capital investments. There is also a probability that the specifications that would be built under future private owner would be lower spec-ed compared to the current quality of amenities and design of Vancouver Airport given these might not be considered important to the operation or the owner.