Ottawa Byelections

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It's more a symbol of how the PCs seem to care more about training their star candidate than actually mounting a campaign for riding residents. I don't really blame them--it's the most logical thing for them to do. I blame the system that results in parties having no motivation when safe seats are contested.



The seat has been vacant since June 21, so about three months. Historically it typically takes about six months for vacant seats to be filled.

Now that all the parties have candidates I expect the call to be issued within a few weeks, so the by-election will probably take place in November; so more or less within the typical timeframe.

How is training a candidate facilitated by choosing a campaign hq across the street from the riding boundary? Probably more likely they got a good price.


They could have called the election at the same time as Scarborough rouge river. I'm sure they had political reasons, but it still hurts the residents of the riding, especially since the federal riding is also vacant.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How is training a candidate facilitated by choosing a campaign hq across the street from the riding boundary? Probably more likely they got a good price.

That's exactly it. They're choosing a guy from the other side of the city, and picked a convenient campaign office for them, outside the borders of the riding.

Andre Marin is a big get and he'd make a great star candidate in one of the suburban seats in the city. The PCs have a near-zero chance of actually winning O-V, so odds are they're using this election as a way to train Marin to get him seasoned up for a run at Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018. There's no way they're stupid enough to waste all this money and energy recruiting a star candidate in an ultra-safe Liberal riding if there's no clear plan for what they do with him after his inevitable loss.

Originally Posted by acottawa

They could have called the election at the same time as Scarborough rouge river. I'm sure they had political reasons, but it still hurts the residents of the riding, especially since the federal riding is also vacant.

It was too soon. When the call was made for Scarborough-Rouge River on August 3rd, Ottawa-Vanier had only been vacant for a month.. precedent in both federal and provincial politics is that by-election calls are not issued that quickly. It has been established this way due to the time it takes for parties to organize. Calling it then would have likely drawn accusations from opposition parties that the move prevented them from organizing.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Andre Marin is a big get

Oh, dear lord, no. No-diddley-oh.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Oh, dear lord, no. No-diddley-oh.

He might be a good catch when it comes to the public eye, but good luck in trying to control him, Mr. Brown.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Acajack

He might be a good catch when it comes to the public eye, but good luck in trying to control him, Mr. Brown.

He's having a hard time controlling the caucus and the party base right now, but ridings like Ottawa West-Nepean (a reddish swing riding) are critical to winning power, as long as the rural base remains in place.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It was too soon. When the call was made for Scarborough-Rouge River on August 3rd, Ottawa-Vanier had only been vacant for a month.. precedent in both federal and provincial politics is that by-election calls are not issued that quickly. It has been established this way due to the time it takes for parties to organize. Calling it then would have likely drawn accusations from opposition parties that the move prevented them from organizing.

She resigned in June, the Barrie by-election was held in September. Joe Cimino resigned Sudbury on November 20, 2014, the by-election was held on February 5.

The difference is of course political reasons, I'm just saying I will not accept that as an excuse, and I find that more offensive than a candidate saving a few bucks by locating an office across the street from a riding boundary.

Maybe if it was a constituency office it might be more of an issue (as maybe it would inconvenience constituents trying to get services from their MPP), but it is a campaign office, so the only people who go there are campaign volunteers or other supporters of the candidate.

Actually, it is a hard riding to locate a constituency office. The geographic centre of the riding is somewhere around the aviation parkway and cité private (which doesn't have a commercial centre). Elections Canada and the former politicians located their offices in Vanier, which is inconvenient for most people in the riding. The most convenient location for transit would probably be St Laurent Mall, but that is at the edge of the riding.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Oh, dear lord, no. No-diddley-oh.

By that, I meant what Acajack said, he'll be a popular catch with swing voters. In office, he'll probably be a disaster.

At the rate things are going, it appears Ontarians will elect a PC majority government in 2018 that will be totally unprepared for office, with minimal bench strength, lots of caucus dissent, and little policy strength. (They could get away with that last one IMO, as Wynne is leaving behind a lot of unfinished business that they could claim as their own, ie. the childcare expansion that doesn't really start until 2019, GO RER which doesn't really start until 2020, etc.) We'll be trading corruption for chaos... can't decide if that's a good thing or not.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

By that, I meant what Acajack said, he'll be a popular catch with swing voters. In office, he'll probably be a disaster.

At the rate things are going, it appears Ontarians will elect a PC majority government in 2018 that will be totally unprepared for office, with minimal bench strength, lots of caucus dissent, and little policy strength. (They could get away with that last one IMO, as Wynne is leaving behind a lot of unfinished business that they could claim as their own, ie. the childcare expansion that doesn't really start until 2019, GO RER which doesn't really start until 2020, etc.) We'll be trading corruption for chaos... can't decide if that's a good thing or not.

A PC minority wouldn't have to do much: get hydro under control, pick a fight with Trudeau over carbon taxes, cut a few Liberal pet projects and take their chances with an election 18 months later. If they were smart they would set up a corruption inquiry and shut up about social issues (probably not smart though).

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A PC minority wouldn't have to do much: get hydro under control, pick a fight with Trudeau over carbon taxes, cut a few Liberal pet projects and take their chances with an election 18 months later. If they were smart they would set up a corruption inquiry and shut up about social issues (probably not smart though).

Riiight. Piece of cake!

[1overcosc]

Carbon pricing is popular with a majority of the population approving of a nationwide price on carbon according to recent polling data. A smart PC government would tweak the financials (ie. redirect cap and trade revenues to tax cuts or something along those lines) but not repeal it.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Carbon pricing is popular with a majority of the population approving of a nationwide price on carbon according to recent polling data. A smart PC government would tweak the financials (ie. redirect cap and trade revenues to tax cuts or something along those lines) but not repeal it.

Because people don't know what it means. Once they figure out it means a tax on home heating support will fall.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Riiight. Piece of cake!

Phase out the feed in tariff programs, cancel the nuclear mega projects, import more power from Quebec and align generation capacity with demand.

[Acajack]

On Radio-Canada this morning, there was a report about the diminishing presence of francophones in Ottawa-Vanier, in both percentage and even sheer numbers.

Apparently it was down to 31% in the last census, from 36% previously.

Anyone who knows the area would not be surprised.

Anyway, francophones can still influence the outcome of elections there with one-third of the population, especially if their turnout rates are high and if they vote as a block.

But maybe not as assuredly as before.

Kind of like in the Orleans riding (which has had several different names).

Francophones there are about a third of voters as well, and they seem to have influenced the outcome more often than not in elections.

But not always. Orleans elected a Mike Harris Conservative who did not speak French (Brian Coburn), and Mr. Harris was not exactly known for being a fan of francophones.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Phase out the feed in tariff programs, cancel the nuclear mega projects, import more power from Quebec and align generation capacity with demand.

The government has already done those two, as rates for new wind and solar contracts have fallen to levels comparable to other forms of generation (in fact, most new wind contracts are now being signed for rates less than the current price of electricity, meaning they're actually helping to decrease power bills, not raise them), and recently the government abandoned plans for additional capacity.

Cancelling nuclear refurbs would create huge deficiencies in power supply, and importing more power from Quebec is only possible if Quebec is willing/able to sell in large numbers at prices which can make a difference (which it isn't).

There's basically nothing further that can be done without taking radical steps like charging for electricity below cost (which would just shift costs from ratepayers to taxpayers), or reintroducing coal power (which is a complete non-starter for obvious reasons). Maybe a few tweaks here and there that can halt growth and maybe cut a few percentage points off the bills, but nothing that can achieve a noticeable reduction off current rates.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Because people don't know what it means. Once they figure out it means a tax on home heating support will fall.

Quebec has had the exact same program Ontario is about to implement for years now and it's still widely popular there. Popular support for action against climate change will only grow as its impacts become more severe.

Going back on cap and trade once it's implemented would also pretty much guarantee the government getting sued by companies who bought credits. Not to mention our international obligations.

In any case, the PCs have already said they support carbon pricing, so the point is moot.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Quebec has had the exact same program Ontario is about to implement for years now and it's still widely popular there. Popular support for action against climate change will only grow as its impacts become more severe.

Going back on cap and trade once it's implemented would also pretty much guarantee the government getting sued by companies who bought credits. Not to mention our international obligations.

In any case, the PCs have already said they support carbon pricing, so the point is moot.

1. My understanding is there was no impact on gas prices with Quebec's cap and trade and consumers don't generally use natural gas to heat their houses so not really a fair comparison. Quebec's cost is also well below what Ontario is talking about by 2022. If you want to see people's reaction look at the near revolution about electricity prices.

2. I don't think this is a training exercise for Marin. That's not something you usually see. He probably won't win the by-election but is setting himself up to win the riding if PCs end up with a landslide in next general. (an outcome probably more likely than a Liberal re-election)

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Quebec has had the exact same program Ontario is about to implement for years now and it's still widely popular there. Popular support for action against climate change will only grow as its impacts become more severe.

Going back on cap and trade once it's implemented would also pretty much guarantee the government getting sued by companies who bought credits. Not to mention our international obligations.

In any case, the PCs have already said they support carbon pricing, so the point is moot.

Quebeckers don't tend to heat their homes with fossil fuels.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The government has already done those two, as rates for new wind and solar contracts have fallen to levels comparable to other forms of generation (in fact, most new wind contracts are now being signed for rates less than the current price of electricity, meaning they're actually helping to decrease power bills, not raise them), and recently the government abandoned plans for additional capacity.

Cancelling nuclear refurbs would create huge deficiencies in power supply, and importing more power from Quebec is only possible if Quebec is willing/able to sell in large numbers at prices which can make a difference (which it isn't).

There's basically nothing further that can be done without taking radical steps like charging for electricity below cost (which would just shift costs from ratepayers to taxpayers), or reintroducing coal power (which is a complete non-starter for obvious reasons). Maybe a few tweaks here and there that can halt growth and maybe cut a few percentage points off the bills, but nothing that can achieve a noticeable reduction off current rates.

The feed in tariff programs are still there, the values are slightly lower than they used to be but still way less than natural gas. Ontario is still producing way more electricity than it needs and has way more installed capacity than it needs. This would be fine if it could be exported profitably but Ontario often has to pay other utilities to take its surplus power. There have been some positive steps recently, but the "global charge" (esentially the price for stupid political decisions) is about 10 cents a kWh.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

1. My understanding is there was no impact on gas prices with Quebec's cap and trade and consumers don't generally use natural gas to heat their houses so not really a fair comparison. Quebec's cost is also well below what Ontario is talking about by 2022. If you want to see people's reaction look at the near revolution about electricity prices.

Quebec's and Ontario's cap and trade programs are tied into the same market so the price of carbon will be identical in both jurisdictions in the year 2022.

It's also tied in with California as well.. and possibly Mexico in the next few years. What's interesting is that California has a significant market oversupply of credits as carbon emissions have fallen much faster than originally anticipated, so the cost of acquiring them will be very low. Ontario and Quebec's cap and trade program may very well fail the federal government's carbon tax requirement by having too low of a price.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

2. I don't think this is a training exercise for Marin. That's not something you usually see. He probably won't win the by-election but is setting himself up to win the riding if PCs end up with a landslide in next general. (an outcome probably more likely than a Liberal re-election)

Ottawa-Vanier is a textbook example of a safe seat. The PCs could win a sizeable majority and this one would still be out of reach for them.

IMO, a narrow PC majority is the most likely result the way things look now, but 2 years is a lifetime in politics

[rocketphish]

The Liberals' gift to the Progressive Conservatives in Ottawa-Vanier

David Reevely, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: October 17, 2016 | Last Updated: October 17, 2016 3:55 PM EDT

The Ontario Liberals are a long way from blowing the upcoming byelection in Ottawa-Vanier, but this is what blowing it would look like as it begins.

The thing hasn’t even been called yet, but all three major parties have their nominees. Premier Kathleen Wynne spent half of last week here, went back to Toronto for Monday morning question period at Queen’s Park, and then returned to Ottawa Monday afternoon.

She’s spread herself out — a harvest fair in Kanata, a hospital wing opening in Nepean. But just a couple of weeks ago, she was here to personally announce new daycare spaces at a French elementary school in Vanier. Monday afternoon, her schedule included a hit at the University of Ottawa, home base for her party’s Ottawa-Vanier candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers, and then a women-in-politics panel. It’s a campaign without the official call.

The fundamentals favour the Liberals. Ottawa-Vanier has historically been one of the safest red seats in the province — in the country, even. Liberals used to reliably get 70 per cent of the vote there, and that’s slipped to around 50 per cent over the last 20 years or so. That’s still a dominant position and Progressive Conservative candidate André Marin would set a modern-day record if he could get 30 per cent.

But byelections are weird. Turnout’s usually low, meaning protest voters have more power than usual. With the Liberals’ majority not in question, their supporters won’t be as motivated, and the Liberals are not popular provincially. The Tories just won a byelection in Scarborough-Rouge River, a seat that’s not nearly as solid a Liberal stronghold as Ottawa-Vanier but that the Liberals had still won 10 times in a row. If the Tories can take Ottawa-Vanier, they’ll have quite a story to tell about Liberal collapse.

(There’s also a New Democratic Party candidate, retired senior civilian RCMP member Claude Bisson. The NDP has basically no machinery in Eastern Ontario any more; the provincial party hasn’t won a seat here since the 1990s.)

As the former provincial ombudsman, Marin knows the issues about as well as any sitting MPP and probably has more stories of government screwups than anybody. He has name recognition that extends to a small army of supporters across Ontario who adore him for bluntly championing the little guy. They can’t vote in Ottawa-Vanier but they can certainly donate money; Marin’s campaign will be as well funded as any could be.

He’s picked electricity prices as his main issue. They’ve risen sharply, obviously, and angered a lot of people, obviously. Though if the Tories have a plan to bring then down again, they’re not being obvious about it.

Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown has been in Ottawa-Vanier to canvass repeatedly since the party picked Marin as its candidate less than a month ago, with other senior party figures like finance critic Vic Fedeli pulling door-knocking shifts, too. They did it in Scarborough and it worked there; they’ll keep doing it here for months if they have to.

Even so, local Tories know Marin is in an uphill fight. He doesn’t live in Ottawa-Vanier, which is a big deal. It’s hard to overstate the political importance of being part of Vanier’s francophone community when you’re running for office there. The model politician is Bernard Grandmaître — a Vanier businessman, alderman and mayor before running for provincial office. Then came Claudette Boyer — a University of Ottawa graduate, career teacher, Vanier school trustee. Then Madeleine Meilleur — who never misses a chance to talk about her nursing days at the francophone-icon Montfort Hospital before she became a lawyer, made good at Canada Post, and entered politics on city council in Vanier.

In this byelection, the candidate in the Grandmaître-Boyer-Meilleur mould would have been Lucille Collard, the lawyer and French public school trustee for Rideau-Vanier. Coun. Mathieu Fleury, who had Meilleur’s blessing to succeed her until he decided he didn’t want to half-move to Toronto, gave Collard’s nomination speech. One of Fleury’s prominent opponents in the last municipal election, Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, backed Collard as well. Des Rosiers lives in Sandy Hill and as a law dean at the University of Ottawa, with a long record in civil-liberties work, is a star candidate in her own right. She just didn’t come up in politics the same way.

But more than 100 of Collard’s would-be nomination voters were disqualified at Saturday’s nomination meeting because of a bureaucratic foulup — her campaign apparently sent in those voters’ new Liberal membership dues incorrectly. Even if Des Rosiers would have won the nomination anyway, that’s the sort of thing that costs a campaign in volunteers, in enthusiasm and energy. It’s one thing to lose, something else to lose on the persnickety enforcement of a technicality.

“Stay tuned,” is all that Premier Kathleen Wynne will say when she’s asked when the election will be. (At a public event Friday, Ottawa-Orléans MPP Marie-France Lalonde taught her the French idiom: “À suivre.”)

They could use the extra time.

Infighting over “safe” seats is a bad start for a party that really needs a win.

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