YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

Wow, a bit surprised by daily TPE as I understand it'a a pretty low-yield route. Wonder if they'll codeshare with BR?

AC really growing YVR!

I bet 2017 will be the last year we see BR's 747 flying as passenger variant.

If they codeshare with AC, they can finally replace them with 777 without an overall loss of capacity.

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by Jebby

Wow, I just looked it up and JAL has 161 or 186 seats on their 788s and 195 on their 789s. They actually have more seats on some of their 737-800s (165) than their least dense 788s!!

Compare that to AeroMexico which has 243 on their 788s and 263 on their 789s.

Or AC with 250 on 788 and 300 basically on the 789

[Cage]

Originally Posted by nname

I bet 2017 will be the last year we see BR's 747 flying as passenger variant.

If they codeshare with AC, they can finally replace them with 777 without an overall loss of capacity.

The BR 744s are slated for retirement by March 2017.

The 744 retirement creates a problem for BR on YVR-TPE. The 77W is meant to replace the 744, but the configuration of the 77W is too premium cabin heavy for the route. The BR 744 configuration is comparable to the AC 777HD and 789. My guess is that BR will put a 77W onto YVR-TPE but will be spilling a lot of traffic and yield over to AC. It would not surprise me if AC takes over the route unless yield performance improves for BR (either that or BR introduces a High Density configuration for their 77Ws.

For comparison, AC 77W have 400 seats while BR 77W has 330. Only 25 of the 70 seat difference is due to AC having 10 across while BR has 9 across. The majority of the difference is due to configuration of the premium cabins.

[Johnny Aussie]

YVR's press release about TPE and NGO

http://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releases/air-canada-introduces-nonstop-service-to-nagoya-and-taipei

So with this latest announcement Air Canada at YVR has either added or announced these 9 new international routes this year:

BNE, DUB, DEL, TPE, NGO, ORD, SAN, SJC and DFW.

Nice to see AC's "2018 Network Opportunities" map slowly becoming a reality.... refer to page 8.

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/ben_smith_las_vegas_aug312015.pdf

[go_leafs_go02]

Originally Posted by CareerShow

Yes however this requires sitting on a Rouge jet for 9ish hours.... Bad seats, bad service, and overall fairly unprofessional.

Avoid Rouge like the plague. They fly Abbotsford to Toronto on Rouge and that's 4.5 hours and unbearable. They shave 2 inches off every row to cram 2 more rows in the plane.

[CareerShow]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YVR's press release about TPE and NGO

http://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releases/air-canada-introduces-nonstop-service-to-nagoya-and-taipei

So with this latest announcement Air Canada at YVR has either added or announced these 9 new international routes this year:

BNE, DUB, DEL, TPE, NGO, ORD, SAN, SJC and DFW.

Nice to see AC's "2018 Network Opportunities" map slowly becoming a reality.... refer to page 8.

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/ben_smith_las_vegas_aug312015.pdf

You can basically add Cancun to that list no?
Also would Guangzhou or Auckland be the next two likely destinations for AC?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by CareerShow

You can basically add Cancun to that list no?

CUN has really been an on again off again destination for years actually as with most of the Mexico destinations.

[Cage]

I trust the announcements by AC this year have satisfied even the most hardened "No love from AC" town criers.


Finally we are over 10,000 posts so I welcome the opportunity for one final post before this thread is locked.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

The BR 744s are slated for retirement by March 2017.

The 744 retirement creates a problem for BR on YVR-TPE. The 77W is meant to replace the 744, but the configuration of the 77W is too premium cabin heavy for the route. The BR 744 configuration is comparable to the AC 777HD and 789. My guess is that BR will put a 77W onto YVR-TPE but will be spilling a lot of traffic and yield over to AC. It would not surprise me if AC takes over the route unless yield performance improves for BR (either that or BR introduces a High Density configuration for their 77Ws.

For comparison, AC 77W have 400 seats while BR 77W has 330. Only 25 of the 70 seat difference is due to AC having 10 across while BR has 9 across. The majority of the difference is due to configuration of the premium cabins.

The BR 77W has only 3 more J seats than the BR 744 and the same number of prem economy seats. Also, their 77Ws have the new J class so would be a service improvement. Of course where they would lose is the loss of 40 Y seats.
So although the 77W is much more premium heavy it actually adds just a negligible amount of premium seats.
But definitely a HD 77W would be more suitable for YVR.
If they co-operate properly, AC could easily absorb the loss of economy seats and grow the route overall.
I just cannot see BR pull out of YVR... they have been wanting to go daily on YVR for years but, like China, are capped in frequencies due to CI utilising the balance even if just for a few weeks during peak periods.
Speaking of CI, they too will eventually have to replace the 744 on the YVR-TPE route which is tipped to go A350 soon.

Edit: ooooh crosses posts... Snuck this in after you Cage!

[nname]

All the new 77W BR gets from now on will be 10 across "HD" variant.

[trofirhen]

Can't wait for Melbourne, Singapore, and Bangkok to be added to the YVR roster, even if it takes until 2018 !!

[excel]

Great news about TPE and NGO!

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Nice to see AC's "2018 Network Opportunities" map slowly becoming a reality.... refer to page 8.

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/media/presentations/documents/ben_smith_las_vegas_aug312015.pdf

The 2018 map doesn't even include YVR-DEL. We will take that as a bonus!

[red-paladin]

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-to-nagoya-japan-taipei-taiwan-flights

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Cage

KIX and NGO are only 94 miles apart. Bigger question is how will YVR-NGO affect YVR-KIX.

My guess would be to have YVR-NGO at 4 weekly and KIX-NGO the other three weekly.

KIX is a MUCH more desirable destination than NGO for a few reasons. For one, it serves a much larger area (Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto, Nara).

KIX is also Japan's largest LCC hub, with Terminal 2 being 100% LCC. JetStar and Peach have plenty of cheap flights out of the airport to domestic and international locations.

Kyoto & Kobe are also much more popular O&D destinations.

NGO, I believe, is an attempt to capture all North American from that area of Japan. Also, it's a manufacturing hub so there may be potential for business travel (but it's Rouge). That being said, most Japanese business pax would probably prefer to transfer in NRT over YVR to whatever city they're going to, as they could have a better chance of staying on JAL or ANA for their journey... so Rouge service is likely a test to see if they can attract budget minded travellers and O&D traffic. I suppose there are likely connections YVR has in the US (especially lately) that NRT doesn't have, like some of the smaller US airports in California.

Either way, I think it's a great win for YVR and really speaks volumes about the success of the YVR-KIX route that they added YVR-NGO so quickly. My guess is that the Japanese are getting used to LCCs so Rouge isn't put in as bad a light as we like to give it.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

KIX is a MUCH more desirable destination than NGO for a few reasons. For one, it serves a much larger area (Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto, Nara).

KIX is also Japan's largest LCC hub, with Terminal 2 being 100% LCC. JetStar and Peach have plenty of cheap flights out of the airport to domestic and international locations.

Kyoto & Kobe are also much more popular O&D destinations.

NGO, I believe, is an attempt to capture all North American from that area of Japan. Also, it's a manufacturing hub so there may be potential for business travel (but it's Rouge). That being said, most Japanese business pax would probably prefer to transfer in NRT over YVR to whatever city they're going to, as they could have a better chance of staying on JAL or ANA for their journey... so Rouge service is likely a test to see if they can attract budget minded travellers and O&D traffic. I suppose there are likely connections YVR has in the US (especially lately) that NRT doesn't have, like some of the smaller US airports in California.

Either way, I think it's a great win for YVR and really speaks volumes about the success of the YVR-KIX route that they added YVR-NGO so quickly. My guess is that the Japanese are getting used to LCCs so Rouge isn't put in as bad a light as we like to give it.

These flights are more aimed at Japanese originating passengers. Nagoya metro is over 9 million plus the catchment area stretches eastward towards Tokyo as well. I'm not saying AC is not also looking at North American originating passengers but definitely more aimed at Japanese travellers. Plus NGO-YVR will be only the second North American route from NGO. And as an entire region as it is so densely populated and so close together its 30 million+ population makes this move quite logical. Tourism Vancouver and BC must be delighted with this addition.

But you are right, KIX has been performing very well. Certainly not ruling out making YVR-KIX daily, but perhaps after this move they will leave KIX at 6 weekly for now.

Perhaps we may even see CTS or FUK added one day as well. NGO-YVR is larger than FUK-YVR and much larger than CTS-YVR.

[SFUVancouver]

Great news about Nagoya and Taipei for Air Canada.

[vanlaw]

Although all of the recent new route announcements have almost come to be expected, looking back a couple of years it is astonishing how much of a game changer the 787 really is, and will only get better with the A350 starting to steadily roll out now.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

KIX is a MUCH more desirable destination than NGO for a few reasons. For one, it serves a much larger area (Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto, Nara).

KIX is also Japan's largest LCC hub, with Terminal 2 being 100% LCC. JetStar and Peach have plenty of cheap flights out of the airport to domestic and international locations.

Kyoto & Kobe are also much more popular O&D destinations.

NGO, I believe, is an attempt to capture all North American from that area of Japan. Also, it's a manufacturing hub so there may be potential for business travel (but it's Rouge). That being said, most Japanese business pax would probably prefer to transfer in NRT over YVR to whatever city they're going to, as they could have a better chance of staying on JAL or ANA for their journey... so Rouge service is likely a test to see if they can attract budget minded travellers and O&D traffic. I suppose there are likely connections YVR has in the US (especially lately) that NRT doesn't have, like some of the smaller US airports in California.

Either way, I think it's a great win for YVR and really speaks volumes about the success of the YVR-KIX route that they added YVR-NGO so quickly. My guess is that the Japanese are getting used to LCCs so Rouge isn't put in as bad a light as we like to give it.

Adding KIX and NGO back into the sked basically takes AC back to where they were before the 2008 financial crisis.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

KIX is a MUCH more desirable destination than NGO for a few reasons. For one, it serves a much larger area (Osaka, Kobe, Kyoto, Nara).

KIX is also Japan's largest LCC hub, with Terminal 2 being 100% LCC. JetStar and Peach have plenty of cheap flights out of the airport to domestic and international locations.

Kyoto & Kobe are also much more popular O&D destinations.

NGO, I believe, is an attempt to capture all North American from that area of Japan. Also, it's a manufacturing hub so there may be potential for business travel (but it's Rouge). That being said, most Japanese business pax would probably prefer to transfer in NRT over YVR to whatever city they're going to, as they could have a better chance of staying on JAL or ANA for their journey... so Rouge service is likely a test to see if they can attract budget minded travellers and O&D traffic. I suppose there are likely connections YVR has in the US (especially lately) that NRT doesn't have, like some of the smaller US airports in California.

Either way, I think it's a great win for YVR and really speaks volumes about the success of the YVR-KIX route that they added YVR-NGO so quickly. My guess is that the Japanese are getting used to LCCs so Rouge isn't put in as bad a light as we like to give it.

LOL about japan and LCCs, but I think you are right. Rouge is better than your average Asian LCC at that.

Still, it seems a shame that YVR-KIX is still rouge'd. One would think it would attract more higher yield traffic, year-round.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by vanlaw

Although all of the recent new route announcements have almost come to be expected, looking back a couple of years it is astonishing how much of a game changer the 787 really is, and will only get better with the A350 starting to steadily roll out now.

Agreed. We've entered the age of next gen aircraft and the rise of "long-thin" route operating economics. I expect that as the order backlog for the B787 and A350 is worked through and the aircraft enter service, we're going to continue seeing new long-thin routes opening up the world over. Per Wikipedia, in other words take this with a grain of salt, Boeing has delivered 455 aircraft of its 1,161 order book for all models of the 787. Airbus is just getting rolling and has delivered 36 aircraft of its 810 order book for all models of the A350. Combined, there are still 1,480 next gen B787 and A350 currently on order and awaiting delivery, not to mention orders for 306 777X aircraft and 186 A330neo aircraft, to round out the re-engined/improved aerodynamics wide-bodies.

Equally so, I expect that we will see significant new continental and transatlantic route proving when airlines get their hands on the re-engined/improved aerodynamics narrow-body B737Max and A320neo families and wholly-new next-gen CSeries. Add to that the step-wise improvement of the re-engined/improved aerodynamics Embraer E-2 series regional jets and the introduction of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet and I expect that we will see new route proving at the feeder route/regional carrier segment of the market.

It's an exciting time! We're also witnessing the twilight years of wide-body stalwarts: the 747, and to the lesser degree the 767. Already the DC-10 and, I believe the MD-11, have ceased passenger operations. The 757 is on its way out, even with no direct one-for-one replacement in sight. Late model A321s and, to a lesser degree B739s, are the interim replacement for aging 757s and I expect that the A321neo and the B739Max-9 (and possibly -10, if that happens) will step in and take over the remaining high-volume trans-continental 757 sectors and select transatlantic sectors where possible. Low-cycle B767s and A330s and maybe some early production B788 and A358s will take over the balance of high load factor/premium rich long-haul transatlantic 757 sectors, though both would likely be "too much airplane" for replacing 757 sectors