Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverInfill
Originally Posted by Marvland:
"...with a one year apartment delivery that equals the last five years in Denver with 12,000 units (read that number again) in the soft pipeline."
What is the "last five years in Denver" number you are citing, the geographic extent for that number (Denver city proper, MSA, or CSA) and the specific source(s)? Please provide links.
What is the "one year apartment delivery" number that is supposedly equal to the Denver number, the geographic extent for that number (SLC city proper, MSA, or CSA) and the specific source(s)? Please provide links.
What is your source for the 12,000 in soft pipeline number and again, the geographic extent for that?
Thanks!
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Well the Denver number I provided was really just a sloppy "click through a few things and post" move with no real logic there except I though it was an interesting thing. Looking deeper at 2016 numbers, Denvers numbers are way bigger than that. At a quick glance it looks like about 6500-7000 units delivered in the last year or so in the CSA. I think what Denver is doing in its core is pretty incredible and I know 2016 deliveries where record setting, although your vacancy rates are high at 6%. That's probably a temporary reflection of the huge year Denver is in the middle of and the massive rent rate bumps (10% WO!) you're seeing.
In this discussion I'm talking about the CSA or what most people would call the Wasatch Front. Salt Lake City CSA is unique in that the apartment market was severely under-built since the last boom 30 years ago, setting the baseline very low. Much of the pipeline info that we reference comes from guys like Jeff Neese of Western States Multifamily, who is Hud's main appraiser for the region, from city building departments and brokerage data mining. So, taking this all with appropriate grains of salt;
here is CBRE, who pegs our total pipeline including potential starts at nearly 22,000 units:
“Units under construction along the Wasatch Front total 9,530. Another 12,219 units have been identified as potential starts. This will greatly help the pent-up demand.”
Here is Equimark (RIP, I really liked Equimark's methodology) pegging it at about the same:
"Nearly 4,839 apartments are under construction in Salt Lake County alone and work will start on an additional 6,484 units in the next 18 months. Together, those new dwellings amount to about 10 percent of Salt Lake County's existing inventory of 120,389 multifamily rental units. Another 9,944 apartments are either planned or under construction across Davis, Utah and Weber counties, EquiMark said. Researchers documented 122 apartment projects being built or proposed across the four-county area, each with scores to hundreds of units apiece."
The "potential start" numbers need to be weighed against reality of course, but I know individual middle level apartment guys in Salt Lake City who have 750 to 1000 new units in their 18 month
personal pipelines. Our market vacancy is 4.5% on paper but most A buildings are 98.5-100% occupied. It is not uncommon for new build to be 90-95% leased by C of O. We all love to bitch a bit over here because we're not getting the towers going just yet and I'm one of the worst offenders. But once you dig into the numbers a bit it's a frenzy out there.
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