Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie
If we have to bring this up again.... YYZ-Transborder is just a league of its own. Many routes can survive on O&D alone. But YYZ's AC hub is conducive to connections from many US markets to both Asia and Europe. YVR is limited to mainly Asian Destinations except for the most western cities to Europe. Hence why YVR - Europe on AC is limited to LHR (and DUB for summer seasonal) for now at least 
Those secondary markets that some are so keen to connect to are just too small. To make any further AC - Transborder routes work would depend primarily on O&D and Asian traffic. Without decent O&D they just won't work. We've seen and discussed the numbers over an over. Other than BOS, IAD and MIA area that's about all folks. Just too much competition to Asia from DL, AA and UA from the fortress hubs in the USA. O&D is going to be king for future Transborder expansion on AC. Hence why DFW is starting up. You pretty much said it yourself here if MCI-YYZ probably wouldn't work on O&D alone how would a YVR-MCI route work?
As for Europe, any future growth will have to be later afternoon departures. That will be fine for some destinations but not all. |
I understand that YYZ is the lynchpin for AC but I think you are underestimating the ability for YVR to replicate a similar hub as toronto.
YVR's niche against US fortress hubs is to provide a pleasant transfer experience compared to transferring in the USA. Comparison to transferring at LAX is a non-starter. SFO may come the closest to a smooth transfer on the west coast, but still IMO not as good as YVR. SEA has aspirations but will have to wait at least until their new expansion is built in a few years and face significant physical constraints by their airport footprint for further additions.
Asia-South America is supposed to be the key to a YVR hub, but I also see a niche in a North america/SE Asia-Australia-NZ-Asia. Why else would AC be upgrading to a 787-9 on its YVR-EWR flight? in the winter? with all the fifth freedom competition from PR and CX? IF YVR does add on SIN, BKK, MEL and even SGN, that will be a big pull from BOS, MIA and IAD for a 1 stop flight with a relatively pleasant transfer experience from the eastern US.
I also think you are overestimating YYZ's network/O+D power. YYZ/AC's strategy of drawing from smaller US airports has been exhausted IMO. It was a one time gimmie to get all the international flyers from largish metro areas with slow economies where US hubs pulled out. not
flights, but
whole hubs. I'm not sure why we need MCI, but I agree that YVR's niche is not getting another AC flight up here from smaller metros from the US midwest/midatlantic to complement YYZ's.
And I have to try to find the link but I read somewhere that most of the YYZ-CPH passengers are not from YYZ< but from other flights. No link, but i'll try to tumble across it..
----
of course there will be lots of news in 2017. I think SE asia will open up for YVR and MEL also looks realistic. YVR wouldn't have a western US rust belt to poach, and I agree with Johnny that AC's western US network to YVR is close to maximized but ABQ is surprisingly underserved for such a market. I also think YVR can reasonably get AC to fly to SLC (Business/ mormon missionary work to Aus/NZ/Asia). But I would be looking out for large eastern US centres, especially if we get more SE asia/Aus/China flights.
a few weeks ago I was thinking AUS (Austin) when I should have been thinking DFW!
Prev
Linear Mode
