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  #281  
Old Posted Apr 9, 2016, 6:09 PM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark View Post
My apologies as I think my post started it all.

Mods, please feel free to delete all my posts that led to this in order to clean up the thread a little.
I don't see anything wrong with questioning whether population growth is sustainable. Personally I think the limit is around 10 billion worldwide.
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  #282  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2016, 10:19 PM
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The data is noisy but this was another strong month for Halifax population and employment numbers. There seem to be more strong months than weak months: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04k-eng.htm

Unemployment rate down to 5.5%, population up by 5,200 year-over-year, employment up by 6,600.
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  #283  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2016, 10:53 PM
portapetey portapetey is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
The data is noisy but this was another strong month for Halifax population and employment numbers. There seem to be more strong months than weak months: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04k-eng.htm

Unemployment rate down to 5.5%, population up by 5,200 year-over-year, employment up by 6,600.
Keep in mind that those population numbers are based on estimated projections from the 2011 census. We won't know the actual 2016 population until 2016 Census results start to be rolled out in February 2017.
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  #284  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2016, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by portapetey View Post
Keep in mind that those population numbers are based on estimated projections from the 2011 census. We won't know the actual 2016 population until 2016 Census results start to be rolled out in February 2017.
Well, they're based on sampled surveys, whereas the census is an enumeration of all the information submitted in the forms. The change from sampling to sampling is how they produce these estimates.

The population estimates are actually considered closer to the true population than the census due to the undercount. The undercounts are often on the order of 3% or so. I am not sure how those are estimated, but that along with sampling error is what explains the difference between the census numbers and the estimates.
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  #285  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2016, 12:18 AM
portapetey portapetey is offline
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Well, they're based on sampled surveys, whereas the census is an enumeration of all the information submitted in the forms. The change from sampling to sampling is how they produce these estimates.

The population estimates are actually considered closer to the true population than the census due to the undercount. The undercounts are often on the order of 3% or so. I am not sure how those are estimated, but that along with sampling error is what explains the difference between the census numbers and the estimates.
The labour force numbers are indeed based on monthly survey samples. But see the note here: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2&SDDS=3701&lang=en

"Adjusting estimates for population changes - Adjustments are also made to LFS data every five years after new population estimates become available following the most recent census. At that time, all LFS data back to the previous census is re-weighted using the new population estimates (since the new population estimates will cover the inter-censal period between the two most recent censuses), and all corresponding historical LFS estimates are revised. Therefore, at the beginning of 2015, all estimates were adjusted to reflect 2011 Census population counts and LFS estimates have been revised back to January 2001. Also, Census metropolitan areas (CMAs), Economic regions (ERs) and Census agglomerations are based on 2011 Census boundaries rather than 2006 boundaries. These and other changes are described in the research paper The 2015 Revisions of the Labour Force Survey (LFS), Catalogue no. 71F0031XWE201501."

The population data (the denominator) is based on the estimates from the most recent census. The post census estimates are certainly considered closer to the true population in the actual year of the census, but anything projected out five years relies on more modelling than just the census net undercoverage (that 2-3% "missed persons" factor you're referring to) - including births, deaths, in- and out-migration - and can end up being pretty far off the mark. A description of the estimation process is found here: http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2&SDDS=3608&lang=en. and a description of how census net undercoverage is estimated can be found here: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/ref/estima-eng.cfm

All this to say, just be aware that the population numbers are projections based on estimates from the 2011 census, not the 2016 census, and may be prove to be either too high high or too low - it can vary quite a bit.

Last edited by portapetey; Jul 10, 2016 at 12:32 AM.
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  #286  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2016, 5:52 AM
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Originally Posted by portapetey View Post
All this to say, just be aware that the population numbers are projections based on estimates from the 2011 census, not the 2016 census, and may be prove to be either too high high or too low - it can vary quite a bit.
True.

To get a measure of the health of the Halifax economy, one can compare like-sized communities. For example:

London, Ontario is shown to have an estimated population (over age 15) of 425.7 thousand, labour force of 267.1 thousand, and employment of 248.0 thousand - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04h-eng.htm

The Halifax area is shown to have an estimated population (over age 15) of 353.1 thousand, labour force of 240.6 thousand, and employment of 227.4 thousand - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04a-eng.htm

If the employment numbers are fairly accurate, then London has a population (over age 15) 20.6% greater than Halifax, but the labour force is only 11% greater, and employment is only 9% greater than that of Halifax.

Compared to a like-sized city like London, Ontario, the Halifax community is doing well, and these healthy comparative numbers have held up for the past several years (I don't have a table comparing the two, but I have noticed this going back several years).
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  #287  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2016, 3:34 PM
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The only trouble with comparing Halifax and London, as we often do due to their comparable sizes, is that London is a second to third-tier city within its region, whereas Halifax is a first-tier regional centre. So that affects a lot including the desirability of each for migration, whether or not large business locate there, etc.

But, yeah, Halifax's labour market is indisputably healthier. If you look at the labour-market stats just released, Halifax is better off than all but four or five of the 33 CMAs. We're doing extremely well

And a lot of people like to say unemployment is low due to outmigration depressing the number of job candidates, but to debunk that, 2015-16 has so far seen higher-than-normal levels of population and labour-force growth here. 1.5% population growth over June 2015, and more than 2% labour-force growth.

Labour-force growth is faster than almost anywhere east of Regina. (Some small places like Trois Rivieres and Oshawa are doing better on paper.)
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  #288  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2016, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
The only trouble with comparing Halifax and London, as we often do due to their comparable sizes, is that London is a second to third-tier city within its region, whereas Halifax is a first-tier regional centre. So that affects a lot including the desirability of each for migration, whether or not large business locate there, etc.
For whatever reason I find that Canadians, particularly here in Western Canada (and not just on SSP) tend to be obsessed with "size" and population numbers, whereas in other countries people often talk of cities and towns more qualitatively. In the US to take one nearby example there's still a bit of a negative connotation to small, remote towns, but people rarely assume a similar rigid population-based pecking order. There are big cities with limited or bad reputations and famous, well-liked small towns and cities. Cities like New Orleans, Austin, Charleston, Portland ME, and on and on all have a good reputation despite being much smaller than the largest US cities. In the US a smaller place can be considered a top-tier destination whereas in Canada people assume it must be a limited backwater that will never be as good as the larger cities. Americans don't start talking about New Orleans by saying "oh, it's so small, but for a small town...".

Farther afield I'd say the correlation between population and importance or interestingness is even weaker. There are enormous Asian cities that are pretty much just factory towns, and there are tiny European cities that are more famous and offer more unique attractions to a visitor than any city in Canada.

I'm really not a Halifax evangelist in the least in person but every so often people here will ask me where I'm from. Surprisingly frequently without any prompting they'll ask me what the population of the city is. Then they build a mental model that Halifax is 1/3 of an Edmonton or whatever, and that's that. A while ago I was reading a travel forum and somebody from the US asked if there were any traffic issues to know about when visiting Halifax; somebody from Canada, not from Halifax, answered that Americans shouldn't even worry about it since Halifax is so small compared to American cities that it can't possibly have traffic jams that an American would consider noteworthy. I thought that amusing and bad advice was representative of how a lot of Canadians think. Weird vestigial insecurity from being in a small and sparsely-populated former colony? I am not sure.

I do think there is a hard lower limit of what you can find in smaller cities (though you have to take into account visitors, students, etc.) but it is usually greatly exaggerated and, well, Halifax isn't actually that small anymore. It's just being compared to larger and larger cities. If the political will were there it could have much better transit, or a big stadium, really tall buildings, a much larger and more bustling downtown core, or most other things cities have. The size of the population is not what is preventing those things from happening.

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And a lot of people like to say unemployment is low due to outmigration depressing the number of job candidates, but to debunk that, 2015-16 has so far seen higher-than-normal levels of population and labour-force growth here. 1.5% population growth over June 2015, and more than 2% labour-force growth.

Labour-force growth is faster than almost anywhere east of Regina. (Some small places like Trois Rivieres and Oshawa are doing better on paper.)
I find that there tends to be special pleading about why Halifax is worse than it seems based on the same statistics generated using the same methodologies and applied to every city in the country. I have an easier time believing that the statistics are accurate than I do believing that Halifax is somehow a unique negative outlier that confounds standard attempts at statistical analysis.

Last edited by someone123; Jul 10, 2016 at 10:30 PM.
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  #289  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2016, 11:03 PM
terrynorthend terrynorthend is offline
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A while ago I was reading a travel forum and somebody from the US asked if there were any traffic issues to know about when visiting Halifax; somebody from Canada, not from Halifax, answered that Americans shouldn't even worry about it since Halifax is so small compared to American cities that it can't possibly have traffic jams that an American would consider noteworthy.


Those are interesting points you make. I noticed that largely (relative to Halifax) populated "municipalities" in the Northeast US or Southern Ontario (have you ever been to Richmond Hill?) are nothing more than suburban tracts linking larger centres together in the megalopolis. Whereas Canadian cities like Saint John with tiny populations put forth a fairly interesting visitor experience.

As far as size and traffic misconceptions go, the worst (on par with those mornings that the MacDonald didn't open on time this year) traffic jam I've experienced was in Fredericton two years ago. Spent almost 2 hours trying to get from the north side, across the river to Regent Street just to get out and head south to Saint John. There was major construction on the Princess Margaret Bridge and they had been dealing with traffic like this all summer.
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  #290  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2016, 2:09 AM
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As far as size and traffic misconceptions go, the worst (on par with those mornings that the MacDonald didn't open on time this year) traffic jam I've experienced was in Fredericton two years ago. Spent almost 2 hours trying to get from the north side, across the river to Regent Street just to get out and head south to Saint John. There was major construction on the Princess Margaret Bridge and they had been dealing with traffic like this all summer.[/QUOTE]

The worse traffic jam i have ever experienced was about 5 or 6 years ago in Halifax where it took me 4 hours to go from the Cunard center near Pier 21 to the Rotary. Was stuck in one place so long that i got out of the truck i was driving went into a a store, bought a couple of magazines, a few snacks, a washroom break and the traffic only move about 5 feet while i was in the store.... Terrible day to say the least.
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  #291  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2016, 12:03 PM
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Good points someone123. Population is kind of an irrelevant thing when evaluating the quality of communities. For a local example, Wolfville and Enfield have the same population, but I think most people would choose Wolfville as the more interesting community. Not to say that there's anything wrong with Enfield, just that they have different roles within their region (and of course Wolfville has the university) that affect how they have developed, independent of population.
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  #292  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2016, 12:57 PM
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I no longer live in Halifax but rather in central Florida and for the last 2 years in a snowbird community where there were people from all over Canada and USA. Lots of questions about where one is from.
I generally indicated Halifax as being a small city of less than a half million and the nicest small city in North America. Over and over those who have known Halifax agreed and those who`ve heard of Halifax indicated that is what they had heard and looked forward to visiting.
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  #293  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2016, 6:08 PM
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As usual, a good-news story being reported with a bit of a negative spin, but: Nova Scotia's immigration has nearly tripled in the first half of this year, compared to the ten-year average. (i.e., We typically get around 2,500 a year. If this pace keeps up through the second half of the year, we're on track to have about 7,000.)

Syrian refugees account for some of that, but not all or even most.

I'll be really curious to see what this does for Halifax's population growth, where they settle, if it affects retention rates or employment stats, and of course whether it continues into 2017.
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  #294  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2016, 7:03 PM
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As usual, a good-news story being reported with a bit of a negative spin, but: Nova Scotia's immigration has nearly tripled in the first half of this year, compared to the ten-year average. (i.e., We typically get around 2,500 a year. If this pace keeps up through the second half of the year, we're on track to have about 7,000.)

Syrian refugees account for some of that, but not all or even most.

I'll be really curious to see what this does for Halifax's population growth, where they settle, if it affects retention rates or employment stats, and of course whether it continues into 2017.
also of note our net interprovencial out migration was only 333 people, or 0.00037% of the population. Kevin Lacey seems to think the Government needs to do something about this. By comparison, natural population change was greater at 528 more deaths then births.
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  #295  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2016, 8:01 PM
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also of note our net interprovencial out migration was only 333 people, or 0.00037% of the population. Kevin Lacey seems to think the Government needs to do something about this. By comparison, natural population change was greater at 528 more deaths then births.
There really isn't anywhere in Canada right now that is experiencing a huge amount of population growth once immigration is taken out of the picture, and I'm not sure why population growth gets so much attention as an economic indicator in the first place. If anything there is probably a negative correlation between having a rapidly increasing population and maintaining good living standards.

I'm reminded of an article I read a little while back about England in the 1500's. The population halved during the two preceding centuries. Wages for farmers (measured in terms of how long they had to work for food) hit a peak that wouldn't again be matched until the 1880's.

Another angle to this is that a certain number of immigrants don't stay, and they could inflate the net outmigration counts. Retention would be better I guess (and people could be attracted more from other provinces) but it seems like a minor issue if the province is retaining, say, 6,000 out of 7,000 immigrants (quarterly outmigration of 250).
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  #296  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2016, 11:30 PM
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There really isn't anywhere in Canada right now that is experiencing a huge amount of population growth once immigration is taken out of the picture, and I'm not sure why population growth gets so much attention as an economic indicator in the first place. If anything there is probably a negative correlation between having a rapidly increasing population and maintaining good living standards.

I'm reminded of an article I read a little while back about England in the 1500's. The population halved during the two preceding centuries. Wages for farmers (measured in terms of how long they had to work for food) hit a peak that wouldn't again be matched until the 1880's.

Another angle to this is that a certain number of immigrants don't stay, and they could inflate the net outmigration counts. Retention would be better I guess (and people could be attracted more from other provinces) but it seems like a minor issue if the province is retaining, say, 6,000 out of 7,000 immigrants (quarterly outmigration of 250).

Statistically Canadians are not having enough babies to replace the people that are dying. We need immigration to ensure there are enough working people to fund the programs government provides. That's part of the issue with high interprovincial out migration. The tax payers leave , so only the non tax paying consumers of services remain.

Massive immigration would cause its own problems but this seems steady. Also note that death numbers and interprovincial migration numbers are based on q1 or 4 months, whereas the immigration is 6 month counts. In short it amounts to a pretty stable population, with a slight increase.
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  #297  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2016, 12:59 AM
Colin May Colin May is offline
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
As usual, a good-news story being reported with a bit of a negative spin, but: Nova Scotia's immigration has nearly tripled in the first half of this year, compared to the ten-year average. (i.e., We typically get around 2,500 a year. If this pace keeps up through the second half of the year, we're on track to have about 7,000.)

Syrian refugees account for some of that, but not all or even most.

I'll be really curious to see what this does for Halifax's population growth, where they settle, if it affects retention rates or employment stats, and of course whether it continues into 2017.
In my experience a significant number of refugees quickly move away to large cities. ISANS has never published statistics showing the refugee arrivals & departures and does not do likewise with immigrants.
I would be interested in a study of the retention of the Lebanese who came here during the civil war, not sure how many were refugees.
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  #298  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2016, 1:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Ziobrop View Post
also of note our net interprovencial out migration was only 333 people, or 0.00037% of the population. Kevin Lacey seems to think the Government needs to do something about this. By comparison, natural population change was greater at 528 more deaths then births.
I thought Lacey said out-migration was well over 4000 people?
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  #299  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2016, 1:59 AM
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In my experience a significant number of refugees quickly move away to large cities. ISANS has never published statistics showing the refugee arrivals & departures and does not do likewise with immigrants.
I would be interested in a study of the retention of the Lebanese who came here during the civil war, not sure how many were refugees.
There are reliable retention stats up to 2006, which shows that by then, five-year retention (not of refugees specifically but of all immigrants) was at 73%. Not amazing, but vastly better than the 40-some percent of 15 years prior.

I don't think any solid post-2006 data exists, maybe due to the 2011 census problems. But I knows it's generally accepted by ISANS and others that retention has continued to slowly improve.

More recent data would be nice.
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  #300  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2016, 1:59 AM
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I thought Lacey said out-migration was well over 4000 people?
Yep ~4200. But in migration was ~3900. Difference is a loss of 333, or 0.00037% of the population. Basically 0. People will always move, but if the bet is 0 then we don't have a massive out migration as he suggests.
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