YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Charlotte would be a great route, not just because it is significant and fast-growing market, but because it is American's second largest hub. Plus, it's a pretty great city! I've been down there regularly for work over the last year and absolutely plan on returning for pleasure in the future. A direct flight would have been great.

A direct Atlanta flight is also a flight that would benefit Vancouver well. Similar reasons as Charlotte, but with ATL having an even larger economy and more significant hub status as the busiest airport in the world and Delta's megahub. Atlanta is also an awesome city and one that I'll also definitely one that I'll visit for pleasure after having travelled there for work.

How much demand (flights per day, pax#) do you imagine for Charlotte and Atlanta respectivesly, as examples. Would there be enough O&D traffic to justify flights;
and then, how many, what metal. As this all fits in with the YVR Asia-Americas gateway hub concept, central to YVR growth in many areas,
what % would be onward going Asian pax? If this pattern of being an intercontinental connector is to work for YVR, then most major cities will need servicing.
Here's Air Canada's chance to turn YVR into a real hub, at last. Will they do it? Can they do it?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

How much demand (flights per day, pax#) do you imagine for Charlotte and Atlanta respectivesly, as examples. Would there be enough O&D traffic to justify flights;
and then, how many, what metal. As this all fits in with the YVR Asia-Americas gateway hub concept, central to YVR growth in many areas,
what % would be onward going Asian pax? If this pattern of being an intercontinental connector is to work for YVR, then most major cities will need servicing.
Here's Air Canada's chance to turn YVR into a real hub, at last. Will they do it? Can they do it?

For CLT with about 20 pax per day each way local O&D I would expect at least three daily flights to start. Perhaps on 319s or maybe the new 738s. OK that's a bit much... let's say twice daily.

ATL being a bit of a larger O&D market (closer to 48 ppdew) I could see them expanding to about 4 daily next summer. Well maybe only 3. I am really surprised that DL only flies twice a week now non-stop in the summer only. Perhaps Delta knows something we don't

I wouldn't even worry about DL, AA or UA competing hubs in the USA to Asia, or heck even AC at YYZ, I'm sure AC would start re-routing pax from the Eastern seaboard through YVR, with the tremendous demand of O&D and Asian traffic, if we add the flights, they will be at least 25% full I would think!

Time to go check my washing machine again.

[Klazu]

I am getting some serious flashbacks from this discussion. Again. Didn't we disect this topic to the bone with Leftcoaster's calculations? Let me answer that: Yes we did!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

For CLT with about 20 pax per day each way local O&D I would expect at least three daily flights to start. Perhaps on 319s or maybe the new 738s. OK that's a bit much... let's say twice daily.

ATL being a bit of a larger O&D market (closer to 48 ppdew) I could see them expanding to about 4 daily next summer. Well maybe only 3. I am really surprised that DL only flies twice a week now non-stop in the summer only. Perhaps Delta knows something we don't

I wouldn't even worry about DL, AA or UA competing hubs in the USA to Asia, or heck even AC at YYZ, I'm sure AC would start re-routing pax from the Eastern seaboard through YVR, with the tremendous demand of O&D and Asian traffic, if we add the flights, they will be at least 25% full I would think!

Time to go check my washing machine again.

What you describe brings to my imagination an Air Canada route map, with spokes radiating massively out of YYZ, then Montreal, but now, YVR becomes a USA c/d a rather like YYZ !!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

For CLT with about 20 pax per day each way local O&D I would expect at least three daily flights to start. Perhaps on 319s or maybe the new 738s. OK that's a bit much... let's say twice daily.

ATL being a bit of a larger O&D market (closer to 48 ppdew) I could see them expanding to about 4 daily next summer. Well maybe only 3.
I am really surprised that DL only flies twice a week now non-stop in the summer only. Perhaps Delta knows something we don't

This has often puzzled me, too. If TWOV is operational now, then surely a spate of new routes will appear. Is TWOV going yet? If yes, I'd expect a big expansion to the USA. If not; to work.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

I am getting some serious flashbacks from this discussion. Again. Didn't we disect this topic to the bone with Leftcoaster's calculations? Let me answer that: Yes we did!

On more than one occasion unfortunately... Add San Antonio, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Cedar Rapids to the list... the possibilities are endless!! YVR had better get cracking on that new Transborder terminal. I reckon a 30 gate new terminal should suffice. Something like the Houston Hobby terminal layout would be nice.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

On more than one occasion unfortunately... Add San Antonio, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Cedar Rapids to the list... the possibilities are endless!! YVR had better get cracking on that new Transborder terminal. I reckon a 30 gate new terminal should suffice. Something like the Houston Hobby terminal layout would be nice.

Johnny, please ... where are YVR and YYZ at on TWOV? Is it operational yet? (sorry, I asked this in another thread) If it is yet to come on stream, in what time frame. Tambora at YVR
All the destinations mentioned inthe posts above.YVR may become the major western hub to the USA, the way YYZ is to many citiies in the US also, more geared for onward travel to Europe and beyond. YVR has the biggest bite on Asia so far,hope it dynamizes YVR traffic. WITH TWOV, one hopes. If you're serious about the cities listed, YVR is in as a super-USA-coverage hub.

[Klazu]

My sarcasm radar is through the roof.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Klazu

My sarcasm radar is through the roof.

Mine, too.

Look, as part of the ongoing discussion about route proving and growth, I voiced a preference for a couple of cities that are on my YVR wishlist. I know that O&D numbers don't currently warrant new service, I recall previous discussions, but especially in light of AC and DL's acquiring the C-Series, and the new service to Asia through YVR, there is some ground to dream. If this struck a nerve, I apologize.

Johnny, I really appreciate your contributions to this thread, and LeftCoaster's number crunching on the O&D question. I would enjoy looking through O&D numbers on my own; from where are they being drawn?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Anyone know what this is all about?


http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airl...nds-westjet-codeshare-from-mid-oct-2016/

Doesn't hugely effect Vancouver, only two routes were codeshared, but it doesn't bode well for Calgary's BA flight. Cutting that much feed with the economy the way it is there can't be a good sign.

Perhaps BA is miffed about WS expanding onto their home turf? Apparently YVR-UK fares dropped over 30% this year. And WS isn't a Oneworld member, so there's no obligation to work together.

[trofirhen]

...The concept of making YVR into a Asian - Americas c/d transfer hub, as said, often sarcastically but with great truth, needs a coverage of the major US markets with little or no overseas flights.
For anyone going to Asia from the USA, YVR offers the most choices except LAX and SFO, and often those routes are longer. What if Southwest Airlines got into the act?
SwAirlines seems perfectly set up to do the job. There are numerous large US metros with no direct flights to Asia, or much else: Kansas City, Charlotte (nothing to Asia), Memphis, Cleveland, OK City as mentioned...
Southwest might tap into Vancouver, and use its ready-made network for connecting large American centres that are underved, or underserved, esp for Asia.
So far, they've expressed no interest in Canada, but this time round, could they find manna at YVR for connections to all over the USA? Or not?

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

...The concept of making YVR into a Asian - Americas c/d transfer hub, as said, often sarcastically but with great truth, needs a coverage of the major US markets with little or no overseas flights.
For anyone going to Asia from the USA, YVR offers the most choices except LAX and SFO, and often those routes are longer. What if Southwest Airlines got into the act?
SwAirlines seems perfectly set up to do the job. There are numerous large US metros with no direct flights to Asia, or much else: Kansas City, Charlotte (nothing to Asia), Memphis, Cleveland, OK City as mentioned...
Southwest might tap into Vancouver, and use its ready-made network for connecting large American centres that are underved, or underserved, esp for Asia.
So far, they've expressed no interest in Canada, but this time round, could they find manna at YVR for connections to all over the USA? Or not?

You have to ask who will operate these routes:

Delta or AA - They have no interest in using Vancouver as a transfer hub. Delta is going to build traffic into their own hubs, namely Seattle. AA is the same way. United has their hubs to feed, they are more likely to partner with Air Canada but I would be surprised they decide to open up new routes to destinations other than their hubs.

Southwest - They have shown no interest in building interline agreement with foreign airlines in places such as LAX or SFO. If they are not going to feed third party airlines in hubs they already operate, I would not expect them to use Vancouver.

Air Canada - Has indicated they want to build up Vancouver. They have made baby steps in that direction. I don't think they are overly interested in providing regional feed for foreign carriers, if they do anything it will be to provide connecting traffic to their own international flights.

Alaska - They have dropped some Vancouver flights and are going to be focused on their merger for the next few years.

WestJet - They are more likely to build out their own network based on O&D and connections to other WestJet flights. If they add a destination in New Mexico it will be because their tour division thinks they can sell tour packages into SantaFe (which by the way is a nice place to vacation) not because of operating feed traffic into Asia. More likely to see a place like Reno (and this a long shot) than some of the other destinations proposed.

The only hope for significant US flights is Air Canada. They are probably going to continue to make baby steps.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Johnny, I really appreciate your contributions to this thread, and LeftCoaster's number crunching on the O&D question. I would enjoy looking through O&D numbers on my own; from where are they being drawn?

Thanks. This discussion has just been brought up over and over.. repeat (spin cycle). Same questions asked, same answers/conclusions.

In any event.... here are all the figures you are asking for. I will repost the link..... This is some very strong data. Enjoy!!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/51-205-x/2016000/tablesectlist-listetableauxsect-eng.htm

I've downloaded, sorted it in order of market size and voila!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by casper

Air Canada - Has indicated they want to build up Vancouver. They have made baby steps in that direction. I don't think they are overly interested in providing regional feed for foreign carriers, if they do anything it will be to provide connecting traffic to their own international flights.

.........................................cut..................
The only hope for significant US flights is Air Canada. They are probably going to continue to make baby steps.

FRAKKIT !!! And hereI was, reading all this bullshit about KC, OKcity, Memphis, Charlotte, Albuquerque, Atlanta, Boston ..... ain't no tentative routes listed nowhere?
"Baby Steps" is the best we can expect, eh? Meh better than nothing but what a letdown.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Thanks. This discussion has just been brought up over and over.. repeat (spin cycle). Same questions asked, same answers/conclusions.

In any event.... here are all the figures you are asking for. I will repost the link..... This is some very strong data. Enjoy!!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/51-205-x/2016000/tablesectlist-listetableauxsect-eng.htm

I've downloaded, sorted it in order of market size and voila!

The most recent figures are for 2014, but just for fun, I took the total number of enplaned and deplaned pax for certain routes, divided the # by 365, and got the result.
That's every day of the week at 365, but consider 5X / week routes, and the numbers go up.

You're right. The results are interesting. Many, often most high-pax routes are direct, such as LAX or SFO. But some, like Boston, often include a change of plane.

If, using the figure from TOTAL enplaned & deplaned pax for certain destinations routes, it would work out as in these examples. [2014 numbers]:

ORD- YVR 311 pax per day
BOS- YVR 172 ppd
CLT- YVR 41 ppd
DFW- YVR 137 ppd
IAH- YVR 160 ppd
LAS- YVR 632 ppd
LAX- YVR 1730 ppd
MIA- YVR 108 ppd
ATL- YVR 98 ppd
SFO - YVR 939 ppd
Washington/Baltimre airports - YVR 180 ppd

Please recall that these are 2014 figures, and are probably higher now;
The point being simply that yes, Charlotte is a real long shot at the moment, Dallas and Houston have 2 nonstops a day, but hey! what about Boston or Washington. Check out those pax# !!
Seasonal or nothing to two destinations with higher pax# than Dallas or Houston. (sort of a reference point).
Las Vegas a lot of holiday flights, I know, but the numbers would seem to warrant 4 nonstops a day at least. Miami and Atlanta seem just under the critical mass limit in this report,
but of course are probably a little higher now.

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

...
Please recall that these are 2014 figures, and are probably higher now;
The point being simply that yes, Charlotte is a real long shot at the moment, Dallas and Houston have 2 nonstops a day, but hey! what about Boston or Washington. Check out those pax# !!
Seasonal or nothing to two destinations with higher pax# than Dallas or Houston. (sort of a reference point).
Las Vegas a lot of holiday flights, I know, but the numbers would seem to warrant 4 nonstops a day at least. Miami and Atlanta seem just under the critical mass limit in this report,
but of course are probably a little higher now.

Two or three years ago, the authorities that control slots at Regan National Airport in DC had a competition to award some new slots they were opening up. Air Canada applied for slots to operate a flight to Vancouver. The slots were awarded to a US airline to operate some additional domestic routes. That would suggest Air Canada sees the DC area as a viable market from Vancouver. However I don't think they have opened up a flight from Vancouver yet.

[casper]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

FRAKKIT !!! And hereI was, reading all this bullshit about KC, OKcity, Memphis, Charlotte, Albuquerque, Atlanta, Boston ..... ain't no tentative routes listed nowhere?
"Baby Steps" is the best we can expect, eh? Meh better than nothing but what a letdown.

This year, you have Air Canada adding small regional jet service to places like San Diego, San Jose. Plus up gaging to 787 into Newark. Next year hopefully it is another destination or two.

Adding some secondary cities in California would be intersecting to see. It can be done using smaller CRJ aircraft and timed to provide feed to existing Air Canada flights to Asia and Europe. Small incremental additions.

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

The most recent figures are for 2014, but just for fun, I took the total number of enplaned and deplaned pax for certain routes, divided the # by 365, and got the result.
That's every day of the week at 365, but consider 5X / week routes, and the numbers go up.

You're right. The results are interesting. Many, often most high-pax routes are direct, such as LAX or SFO. But some, like Boston, often include a change of plane.

If, using the figure from TOTAL enplaned & deplaned pax for certain destinations routes, it would work out as in these examples. [2014 numbers]:

ORD- YVR 311 pax per day
BOS- YVR 172 ppd
CLT- YVR 41 ppd
DFW- YVR 137 ppd
IAH- YVR 160 ppd
LAS- YVR 632 ppd
LAX- YVR 1730 ppd
MIA- YVR 108 ppd
ATL- YVR 98 ppd
SFO - YVR 939 ppd
Washington/Baltimre airports - YVR 180 ppd

Please recall that these are 2014 figures, and are probably higher now;
The point being simply that yes, Charlotte is a real long shot at the moment, Dallas and Houston have 2 nonstops a day, but hey! what about Boston or Washington. Check out those pax# !!
Seasonal or nothing to two destinations with higher pax# than Dallas or Houston. (sort of a reference point).
Las Vegas a lot of holiday flights, I know, but the numbers would seem to warrant 4 nonstops a day at least. Miami and Atlanta seem just under the critical mass limit in this report,
but of course are probably a little higher now.

What these figures can't show is the potential impact of a non-stop flight (along with any route-related marketing and promotion). Take the direct YVR-CDG flight as an example. People in Paris previously had 1-stop options via YUL, LHR and FRA, yet with the launch of the AF flight, there was a significant increase in the number of European passengers to YVR. Obviously the impact of a daily B737 flight from, say, ATL will be more limited, but it might still increase the overall size of the pie.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

What these figures can't show is the potential impact of a non-stop flight (along with any route-related marketing and promotion). Take the direct YVR-CDG flight as an example. People in Paris previously had 1-stop options via YUL, LHR and FRA, yet with the launch of the AF flight, there was a significant increase in the number of European passengers to YVR. Obviously the impact of a daily B737 flight from, say, ATL will be more limited, but it might still increase the overall size of the pie.

You have to consider why the airline operates the flight.

Air France is doing this route to try to get local Vancouver based passengers to Paris or connecting on other Air France flight out of Paris to their final destinations. If there are some local connections in Vancouver on say Alaska to Portland or WestJet to Victoria, Air France has to share a small amount of that fare with those airlines. If its connecting onto a flight to Japan then Air France is either lousing money if the aircraft is full of connecting passengers because it is giving up at least half the revenue on that flight to the other airline or seats are tight and the passenger is paying a premium. The reality is Air France will always have some empty seats and it probably better to make a few bucks with that connecting passenger than for the seat to go out empty.

The reason Delta would fly from Vancouver to ATL is to pickup local Vancouver customers and feed them into its hub at ATL. As well as feeds passengers at other Delta outstations to Vancouver. It is not going to open up new routes to provide regional feed to airlines based out of Asia. Cruise ship traffic make up of Americans coming into or out of Vancouver makes these types of routes likely for a few months each year.

[trofirhen]

From the feedback I'm reading, this great idea of Craig Richmond of YVR as a "major transfer hub" between Asia and the Americas is sort of a wet firecracker. Hope I'm wrong.