Salt Lake City: Official Development News Thread - Part 4

[Comrade]

Originally Posted by Marvland

You're right about this discussion not being about facts. Short timeline horizon? Check. Cherry picked data? Check. Nebulous definition of data (ie, East Side)? Check. So, playing your game and entering "homicides" I see three for the last six months all of them on the East side and by east side I mean east of State. I note it includes the nifty "baseball bat" homophobic rage murder from a week ago at 5th and 5th. It does not include the murder of John Williams of Gastronomy because it is not yet adjudicated (another problem with this data set).

Aaaaaaand Go! Your turn.

You're funny.

1) I went back to 2014 to show almost all homicides that have taken place in the city happened on the city's west side. That's a fact. There is no debating that. It's happened. It's done. It's real. The most high-profiled crimes people see on the news, what will shape their perception of an area, happened west of I-15. Deal with it.

2) I didn't cherry pick data. I showed actual crimes committed. That's the definition of NOT cherry picking data. You've yet to show anything beyond maps that don't really show anything.

3) Dude, literally the region I've used in most my posts goes by your definition. You literally said a few posts ago that the west side should be anything considered west of I-15. I've done that. That is YOUR definition and now you're backtracking because I proved you wrong.

Just admit you're wrong. Further, the discussion here is also PERCEPTION and there is a much worse perception about SLC's west side than the east side. This, too, is fact.

West-side residents were far more likely to say they felt only somewhat safe walking in their neighborhoods during the day, while the vast majority of east-bench residents said they were very safe. Broadly, city residents felt less safe downtown and walking around their neighborhoods at night.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/2814889-155/feel-safe-in-salt-lake-city

That was the original point of my post - perception is driven by the higher-profiled crimes that seem to happen disproportionately on the city's west side, despite fewer people living there.

So, just concede your overall point is not correct. The facts are pretty clear: Despite fewer people living on the city's west side, the overall number of homicides the last few years (which is the exact opposite of short timeline horizon lol) far outpace the much larger east side - while other more high-profiled crime dominate the area more than the east side, and, according to polls, more west-side residents feel less safe than those who live on the city's east side.

[stayinginformed]

Here are some actual crime stats for the whole city and for each council district from the police department. I think it is most useful to look at the 3 and 5 year averages in certain crimes to compare city council districts which are about equal in resident population.

[DCRes]

Awesome pictures, T-Mac! Thanks for sharing

[Future Mayor]

Originally Posted by Comrade

I proved it with actual police statistics of crime committed. Three of the five homicides so far this year have taken place on the city's west side, despite, as I already mentioned, it having a much smaller overall population than anything east of I-15.

Of the seven murders in Salt Lake City last year, six happened on the city's west side.

Of the seven homicides in 2014, five were committed on the city's west side - with the other two happening downtown. Zero were located on the city's east side.

So, in the last two and a half years, 14 of the city's 19 homicides have taken place on the city's west side. That's not an insignificant number. Especially when you consider the west side is not even half the city's population.

This discussion just isn't about the facts - it's also about perception. Like I said, the perception is rooted in the fact more high-profiled crime comes from the city's west side. A car being broken into in Sugar House is not going to be reported on the news. Someone getting beaten with a baseball bat in Rose Park, however, will. Overall, in terms of the crime we look at as the most troubling, much of it continues to come from the smaller west side, despite, like I said, the area having a much smaller overall population compared to SLC's east side.

How are you defining West Side, West of State or West of I-15? Because according to the SLCPD statistics there were 8 homicides in 2015. Nobody that I know of considers anything east of I-15 in either Rose Park or Glendale. 2015 homicides
2 in Rose Park/District 1
1 in Glendale/District 2
1 in Ave/Downtown/District 3
1 in Central City/District 4
2 in Liberty Wells/Liberty Park/District 5
0 in East bench/District 6
1 in Sugarhouse/District 7.
3 of 8 homicides were on the west side, leaving 5 on the east side, or if you leave out downtown and Pioneer Park areas because they have a "West Side Feel" then 3 are on the west side and 4 are on the east side.

http://slcpd.com/crimestatistics/

Salt Lake City classifies the following as Part 1 offenses:
Homicide
— Assault
Robbery
Aggravated Assault
Burglary
Larceny/Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson

According to the University of Utah, and the 2010 census data the population in each district are the following. http://ucdp.utah.edu/county/salt-lake-county/salt-lake-city/slc-2000-2010/
D-1 27,505
D-1 25,573
D-3 27173
D-4 25235
D-5 25,540
D-6 26,289
D-7 26,366


2015 Part 1 offenses and homicides by District. District 1 & 2 are "West side" west of I-15.
D-1 1,701 2
D-2 2,901 1
D-3 1,729 1
D-4 5,666 1
D-5 4199 2
D-6 890 0
D-7 2,469 1


The Comp Stats say it even better. Thanks Stayinginformed.

[Future Mayor]

On a note at all surprising note. There now a Commercial Development sign on the Void property. Not a for lease with a rendering. Just a straight up hey this property if available for commercial development sign.

[Marvland]

Originally Posted by Comrade

Just admit you're wrong. Further, the discussion here is also PERCEPTION and there is a much worse perception about SLC's west side than the east side. This, too, is fact.


[url]http://www.sltrib.com/home/2814889-15
So, just concede your overall point is not correct. The facts are pretty clear: Despite fewer people living on the city's west side, the overall number of homicides the last few years (which is the exact opposite of short timeline horizon lol) far outpace the much larger east side - while other more high-profiled crime dominate the area more than the east side, and, according to polls, more west-side residents feel less safe than those who live on the city's east side.

You stated "Three of the five homicides so far this year have taken place on the city's west side, despite, as I already mentioned, it having a much smaller overall population than anything east of I-15." I used your data source and found three murders (four with John Williams) in the last six months on the East Side and none on the West side. Either the data wonky or there is a "BRUTAL MURDER WAVE" on the East side. And yes your're right about the perception problem.

[arkhitektor]

It's good to see that we've moved on from arguing about how far a hotel in Denver is from its airport to arguing about SLC crime statistics.

[SL,UT]

I think the city of Las Vegas should sell SLC the shuttered Fontainebleau Resort building. I would love to see that building straddle the Salt Palace. Granted, it is massive, but I would be so Dank!!!

[linguisize]

Originally Posted by arkhitektor

It's good to see that we've moved on from arguing about how far a hotel in Denver is from its airport to arguing about SLC crime statistics.

Lol, I feel we are having a bit of a dry spell at the moment with development news. Could we shift the focus to arguing about the best modifications to the TSA guidelines? That's still being drafted and best comments could certainly be heard...

[Future Mayor]

Originally Posted by linguisize

Lol, I feel we are having a bit of a dry spell at the moment with development news. Could we shift the focus to arguing about the best modifications to the TSA guidelines? That's still being drafted and best comments could certainly be heard...

Agreed. I need to review them again before commenting more, but I'm going to try to get that in this week.

[delts145]

Originally Posted by arkhitektor

It's good to see that we've moved on from arguing about how far a hotel in Denver is from its airport to arguing about SLC crime statistics.

[Stenar]

Originally Posted by SL,UT

I think the city of Las Vegas should sell SLC the shuttered Fontainebleau Resort building. I would love to see that building straddle the Salt Palace. Granted, it is massive, but I would be so Dank!!!

There's a reason that place is shuttered. It's ugly as hell.

[ajiuO]

I'm shocked at what the city of salt lake is allowing to occur on 500S.. it's getting almost as bad as 200s. There is this operation that's been going on at the side of the road.. there is a bunch of transients and tons of bikes that they are always painting and swapping parts around between... probably to hide the fact that they are stolen. I know that there's a huge problem with bike theft in the city.... perhaps they should go look there. I wish they would just tear out all of the grass islands on 400 west and ilminate all of the grass areas on the sidewalk... the sidewalks and grass areas are public property but that doesn't mean that bums can use them as a chop shop for bicycles... ridiculous. Who the f*** do these people think they are... and why is the city just letting them do that there?

Wasn't somthing suppose to be happening with 5th and 6th south? 5th south is an embarrassment to this city.

[Future Mayor]

Originally Posted by ajiuO

I'm shocked at what the city of salt lake is allowing to occur on 500S.. it's getting almost as bad as 200s. There is this operation that's been going on at the side of the road.. there is a bunch of transients and tons of bikes that they are always painting and swapping parts around between... probably to hide the fact that they are stolen. I know that there's a huge problem with bike theft in the city.... perhaps they should go look there. I wish they would just tear out all of the grass islands on 400 west and ilminate all of the grass areas on the sidewalk... the sidewalks and grass areas are public property but that doesn't mean that bums can use them as a chop shop for bicycles... ridiculous. Who the f*** do these people think they are... and why is the city just letting them do that there?

Wasn't somthing suppose to be happening with 5th and 6th south? 5th south is an embarrassment to this city.

Yes it's a problem, but removing the grass isn't going to eliminate the problem, it is simply going to move somewhere else. The underlying problem is homelessness and homeless resources, of which the county is in the process of addressing better.

[asies1981]

Council approved on Tuesday zoning changes and street closures for three projects.

[ajiuO]

Originally Posted by Future Mayor

Yes it's a problem, but removing the grass isn't going to eliminate the problem, it is simply going to move somewhere else. The underlying problem is homelessness and homeless resources, of which the county is in the process of addressing better.

I'm perfectly fine with it moving else where.. 500 south is often a visors last impression of SLC. And Homeless resources has nothing to do with the city allowing bike Chop shop on 500... nothing about that is resonable... how long would it take passing officers to stop there and address the situation... regularly if need be...

Ps if we are so stressed on resources we should just not offer assistance to anyone who can't prove they are a Utah residence for a period of time.... then maybe other states will stop shipping them here and address their own problems.

[Comrade]

Originally Posted by Marvland

You stated "Three of the five homicides so far this year have taken place on the city's west side, despite, as I already mentioned, it having a much smaller overall population than anything east of I-15." I used your data source and found three murders (four with John Williams) in the last six months on the East Side and none on the West side. Either the data wonky or there is a "BRUTAL MURDER WAVE" on the East side. And yes your're right about the perception problem.

I'm going off the total numbers from the Salt Lake City website. You can view them here:

https://dotnet.slcgov.com/police/crimestatistics#/chartpresentation

You can break the homicides down by council district.

That website reports five homicides between Jan. 2016 and today. Of those five reported homicides, two occurred in District 1, which is on the city's west side, two occurred in District 2, which is on the city's west side, one occurred in District 3. Zero occurred in Districts 4-7.

Going back further, to 2011, 32 homicides occurred in Salt Lake City. Of those homicides, 15 of them occurred on the city's west side. That's 42% of homicides happening in only two council districts. Of course, on raw numbers alone, that's not too bad of a number - since it means almost 60% of SLC homicides occurred either on the east side or central city. The thing is, those areas also account for a majority of the population.

That's where you and Future Mayor are getting stuck on - the numbers can't be treated equal across the board because they're not equal. The two west-side council districts have a smaller population than everything east of I-15. So, those statistics shown above, the raw total, are irrelevant as higher populated areas are going to have a higher reported amount of crime. If a city of 50,000 has 50 homicides, that city is going to have a larger murder rate than, say, a city of 500,000 that has 100 homicides, despite the fact the latter city having more overall homicides.

Districts 1 and 2 nearly equaled the total of homicides over the last five years as Districts 3-7. When you factor in its smaller population, it only reinforces my point.

More to my point, which continues to be lost here, is that most west-siders feel far less safe in their neighborhoods than those on the east side. That's just not outside perception. There is a reason for that. You can't dismiss it. It's, sadly, fact.

[delts145]

Originally Posted by ajiuO

I'm perfectly fine with it moving else where.. 500 south is often a visors last impression of SLC. And Homeless resources has nothing to do with the city allowing bike Chop shop on 500... nothing about that is resonable... how long would it take passing officers to stop there and address the situation... regularly if need be...

Ps if we are so stressed on resources we should just not offer assistance to anyone who can't prove they are a Utah residence for a period of time.... then maybe other states will stop shipping them here and address their own problems.

The homeless issue is not unique to Salt Lake City. It has become a national crisis, and is hugely apparent here in California, and other major metros. Tent cities have been springing up all over Metro L.A. Compared to most of Los Angeles, I find it often much harder to recognize a homeless person in Downtown Salt Lake. In Salt Lake most look like they clean up and change clothes periodically. They're much harder to immediately pick out, that is until they start panhandling, or engage in other recognizable activities . Here, most are literally covered in layers of grime and filth, many even appearing as if they're auditioning for 'The Walking Dead'. This issue of the homeless/truly destitute has become a national issue that should be addressed.

[Future Mayor]

Originally Posted by Comrade

I'm going off the total numbers from the Salt Lake City website. You can view them here:

https://dotnet.slcgov.com/police/crimestatistics#/chartpresentation

You can break the homicides down by council district.

That website reports five homicides between Jan. 2016 and today. Of those five reported homicides, two occurred in District 1, which is on the city's west side, two occurred in District 2, which is on the city's west side, one occurred in District 3. Zero occurred in Districts 4-7.

Going back further, to 2011, 32 homicides occurred in Salt Lake City. Of those homicides, 15 of them occurred on the city's west side. That's 42% of homicides happening in only two council districts. Of course, on raw numbers alone, that's not too bad of a number - since it means almost 60% of SLC homicides occurred either on the east side or central city. The thing is, those areas also account for a majority of the population.

That's where you and Future Mayor are getting stuck on - the numbers can't be treated equal across the board because they're not equal. The two west-side council districts have a smaller population than everything east of I-15. So, those statistics shown above, the raw total, are irrelevant as higher populated areas are going to have a higher reported amount of crime. If a city of 50,000 has 50 homicides, that city is going to have a larger murder rate than, say, a city of 500,000 that has 100 homicides, despite the fact the latter city having more overall homicides.

Districts 1 and 2 nearly equaled the total of homicides over the last five years as Districts 3-7. When you factor in its smaller population, it only reinforces my point.

More to my point, which continues to be lost here, is that most west-siders feel far less safe in their neighborhoods than those on the east side. That's just not outside perception. There is a reason for that. You can't dismiss it. It's, sadly, fact.

I get the point that you are making, I was pointing out that your initial claim of 2015 homicides was incorrect and felt that it needed to be corrected, and I understand that per populations the homicide rate is higher, but incorrect numbers will only make it appear worse than it is. You had stated that of the seven murders in 2015 six had occurred on the west side, when it was actually eight murders and three of them happened on the west side.

There is also a drastically changing opinion of Rose Park vs Glendale/Poplar Grove. The property values in Rose Park are increasing faster as young people and young families are moving back into the area.

East side vs west side is going to always look worse for the west side, but neighborhood vs neighborhood, or district vs district evens it out more. District 6 is an outlier, which is good, I'm glad to see there is an average of 0 murders there over the last 5 years. Based on the 5 year average District one has a lower homicide rate than 3, 4 and 5.

[DCRes]

Originally Posted by Future Mayor

On a note at all surprising note. There now a Commercial Development sign on the Void property. Not a for lease with a rendering. Just a straight up hey this property if available for commercial development sign.

I saw that this morning too. Although, Ken's company KPB is also on the sign. Ken, any information you can share on your current plans?

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