Rural Commuter Rail

[FFX-ME]

It's interresting that they seem to be reviving the really old privitised streetcar transit concept used in LA. I.e. Build transit lines to get people to move in the middle of nowhere and boost the values of properties the railway operator owns. It could very well work; there have been numerous very successful precedents, just not in recent years.

BTW, they are budgetting 900M$ for rail rehab and would let the cities pay for the stations. Seems reasonable to me.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by FFX-ME

It's interresting that they seem to be reviving the really old privitised streetcar transit concept used in LA. I.e. Build transit lines to get people to move in the middle of nowhere and boost the values of properties the railway operator owns. It could very well work; there have been numerous very successful precedents, just not in recent years.

That is what they tried to do in Riverside South, except they wanted the government to pay for the LRT and the bridge to connect it to Barrhaven. So far they only got the bridge.

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by FFX-ME

It's interresting that they seem to be reviving the really old privitised streetcar transit concept used in LA. I.e. Build transit lines to get people to move in the middle of nowhere and boost the values of properties the railway operator owns. It could very well work; there have been numerous very successful precedents, just not in recent years.

Successful? What happens is that after properties are boosted and sold, developers abandon funding transit and leave taxpayers holding the bag.

[FFX-ME]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Successful? What happens is that after properties are boosted and sold, developers abandon funding transit and leave taxpayers holding the bag.

True, I guess you could then say momentarily successful. The same thing as happened with the Los Angeles red car after the developers stopped caring about it once the land was developed could happen here. One extra feature that may make the system more successful when compared to the red car is that MOOSE plans to make municipalities pay a stopping fee. So in principle the system will be built without taxpayer funds but taxpayer funds will be used to maintain the system.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by eltodesukane

This project is similar to the one in Montreal.
"Ambitious light rail project for Montreal proposed by Caisse de dépôt
$5.5B project funded by province's pension fund would span West Island, South Shore"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/caisse-de-depot-train-de-louest-champlain-bridge-1.3548109

The $5.5B Montreal plan is much more similar to the Confederation Line; Light Metro. MOOSE is more along the lines of GO Transit or the existing AMT service in Montreal, rural/suburban commuter rail.

[Jeremy Coe, C.E.T.]

Recently I've been spending more time in Pembroke and there are PILES of people that commute to Ottawa that would take a GO Transit type of system. The worst part is, the rail lines were there until recently, then got all torn up. I'd love to hop on a train and be in kanata in 45 minutes, no muss, no fuss.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Jeremy Coe, C.E.T.

Recently I've been spending more time in Pembroke and there are PILES of people that commute to Ottawa that would take a GO Transit type of system. The worst part is, the rail lines were there until recently, then got all torn up. I'd love to hop on a train and be in kanata in 45 minutes, no muss, no fuss.

To get to Kanata from Pembroke in 45 minutes, the train would have to travel at more than 120 km/h, assuming no stops (and it would surely at least stop in Renfrew and Arnprior).

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Jeremy Coe, C.E.T.

Recently I've been spending more time in Pembroke and there are PILES of people that commute to Ottawa that would take a GO Transit type of system. The worst part is, the rail lines were there until recently, then got all torn up. I'd love to hop on a train and be in kanata in 45 minutes, no muss, no fuss.

Only 90 people in Pembroke commute to Ottawa, as of 2011. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/...E=&VNAMEF=&D1=0&D2=0&D3=0&D4=0&D5=0&D6=0. The vast majority work locally.

Each GO Train line serve communities of hundreds of thousands of people each... many, such as the Lakeshore line and Kitchener line, literally have millions of people in their catchment area.

Building a GO Train type network in the Ottawa region is nowhere near feasible.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Only 90 people in Pembroke commute to Ottawa, as of 2011. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/...E=&VNAMEF=&D1=0&D2=0&D3=0&D4=0&D5=0&D6=0. The vast majority work locally.

Each GO Train line serve communities of hundreds of thousands of people each... many, such as the Lakeshore line and Kitchener line, literally have millions of people in their catchment area.

Building a GO Train type network in the Ottawa region is nowhere near feasible.

Yes, Pembroke, Smith's Falls and Cornwall are all sufficiently distant from Ottawa to not be commuter suburbs. All of these places have a longstanding history of local industry and economy. There is a lot of traffic coming to and from Ottawa from these places but it is mostly not commuter traffic.

Even if rail was preserved to Pembroke, a lot of investment would be required to make the trains sufficiently fast to compete with cars. There is not a big enough market to justify that investment.

[ssiguy]

I think commuter rail would be far more useful in SWO such as KW to Stratford, Hamilton to Brantford/Paris, Windsor/Kingsville-Leamington, and many ways in London........LDN/StT, LDN/Strathroy, LDN/Ingersol-Woodtock, and LDN/St Mary's-Stratford.

Ottawa is fairly isolated while SWO is far more populated outside the big cities that is more ideal for commuter rail.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think commuter rail would be far more useful in SWO such as KW to Stratford, Hamilton to Brantford/Paris, Windsor/Kingsville-Leamington, and many ways in London........LDN/StT, LDN/Strathroy, LDN/Ingersol-Woodtock, and LDN/St Mary's-Stratford.

Ottawa is fairly isolated while SWO is far more populated outside the big cities that is more ideal for commuter rail.

Yes, by all means, lets have Ottawa taxpayers continue to subsidize southern Ontario's urban transit and intercity transport.

I'm not sold on MOOSE or a regional rail system, either, but can we at least have a project to test the feasibility of re-using another underused local rail line? I am not convinced that such a project is NOT feasible.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Yes, Pembroke, Smith's Falls and Cornwall are all sufficiently distant from Ottawa to not be commuter suburbs. All of these places have a longstanding history of local industry and economy. There is a lot of traffic coming to and from Ottawa from these places but it is mostly not commuter traffic.

Even if rail was preserved to Pembroke, a lot of investment would be required to make the trains sufficiently fast to compete with cars. There is not a big enough market to justify that investment.

I agree. While I would love to see commuter rail in Ottawa, unfortunately the economics don't justify it. True commuter rail only works in mega cities (like Toronto and to a lesser extent Montreal) where real estate in and near the core is so expensive that many people can't afford to live close enough to the core for conventional transit.

Vancouver is a bit of a special case. While smaller than a normal commuter rail city, foreign investment has made real estate expensive, and geography (and the Agricultural Land Reserve) limits where suburbs can be built.

In Ottawa, living outside of the city (not suburbs) is more of a lifestyle choice, than a financial one. That is changing though. I know from personal experience that houses in Stittsville have doubled in value over the past 15 years. If that trend continues, the growth in towns just outside Ottawa (Arnprior, Almonte, Carleton Place, Smiths Falls, Kemptville, etc.) will accelerate. Once that happens, at least short commuter rail lines will become more viable, especially since they will help solve transit issues in distant suburbs like Kanata and Barrhaven in a way that LRT won't.

[FFX-ME]

The thing I like about MOOSE though, that people seem to forget, is that it's not taxpayer-funded, so peoples' close-minded opinions regarding its feasibility are irrelevant. If it fails a company will go bankrupt, not the city. The cities of Ottawa and Gatineau can only win from this arrangement; if the company fails well at least we'll have rehabilitated some railways.

Plus, it is a tried and tested model (more or less). This is how most streetcar systems were built in the old days. They would take people to the middle of nowhere where people would build homes and property values would increase. The railway operator would then make money from real estate and not railway operation. The railway operation is simply a tool to boost property values. The novel aspect of MOOSE's model seems to be that they don't own the real estate but would have real estate companies, property owners, or municipalities pay for a stopping fee in return for the boost in property value.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by FFX-ME

The thing I like about MOOSE though, that people seem to forget, is that it's not taxpayer-funded, so peoples' close-minded opinions regarding its feasibility are irrelevant. If it fails a company will go bankrupt, not the city. The cities of Ottawa and Gatineau can only win from this arrangement; if the company fails well at least we'll have rehabilitated some railways.

Plus, it is a tried and tested model (more or less). This is how most streetcar systems were built in the old days. They would take people to the middle of nowhere where people would build homes and property values would increase. The railway operator would then make money from real estate and not railway operation. The railway operation is simply a tool to boost property values. The novel aspect of MOOSE's model seems to be that they don't own the real estate but would have real estate companies, property owners, or municipalities pay for a stopping fee in return for the boost in property value.

If it is successful it means they will convince tens of thousands of people working in Ottawa or Gatineau to move to distant exurbs and pay taxes somewhere else, so I don't see how it could be a win for Ottawa or Gatineau.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by FFX-ME

The thing I like about MOOSE though, that people seem to forget, is that it's not taxpayer-funded, so peoples' close-minded opinions regarding its feasibility are irrelevant. If it fails a company will go bankrupt, not the city. The cities of Ottawa and Gatineau can only win from this arrangement; if the company fails well at least we'll have rehabilitated some railways.

Plus, it is a tried and tested model (more or less). This is how most streetcar systems were built in the old days. They would take people to the middle of nowhere where people would build homes and property values would increase. The railway operator would then make money from real estate and not railway operation. The railway operation is simply a tool to boost property values. The novel aspect of MOOSE's model seems to be that they don't own the real estate but would have real estate companies, property owners, or municipalities pay for a stopping fee in return for the boost in property value.

Assuming they can get the money to make a go of it and people buy the houses, you forgot the last step:

• After all of the houses have been sold, discoverer that the railway can't make money so it goes bankrupt, leaving all of the residents without a viable mode of transportation, so either the property values plummet or they put pressure on the government to bail out the railway.

A modified version of this happened recently in Riverside South. House prices rose with the promise of LRT. When the plan was scrapped, the lobbyists for the developers bought out the politicians applied political pressure to create an alternate plan so that the could continue to sell houses.

[FFX-ME]

Originally Posted by roger1818

• After all of the houses have been sold, discoverer that the railway can't make money so it goes bankrupt, leaving all of the residents without a viable mode of transportation, so either the property values plummet or they put pressure on the government to bail out the railway.

Yea... Well that is exactly what happened to the Los Angeles red car , lol. Maybe this wouldn't happen since they don't own the land and ask people to pay fees. If they don't pay, the railway would retreat and those properties would love value. Who knows.

Anyway, the city core is full. If you want people to live in the city limits parts of the greenbelt would need to be eliminated.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I agree. While I would love to see commuter rail in Ottawa, unfortunately the economics don't justify it. True commuter rail only works in mega cities (like Toronto and to a lesser extent Montreal) where real estate in and near the core is so expensive that many people can't afford to live close enough to the core for conventional transit.

Vancouver is a bit of a special case. While smaller than a normal commuter rail city, foreign investment has made real estate expensive, and geography (and the Agricultural Land Reserve) limits where suburbs can be built.

In Ottawa, living outside of the city (not suburbs) is more of a lifestyle choice, than a financial one. That is changing though. I know from personal experience that houses in Stittsville have doubled in value over the past 15 years. If that trend continues, the growth in towns just outside Ottawa (Arnprior, Almonte, Carleton Place, Smiths Falls, Kemptville, etc.) will accelerate. Once that happens, at least short commuter rail lines will become more viable, especially since they will help solve transit issues in distant suburbs like Kanata and Barrhaven in a way that LRT won't.

Also, Ottawa can and does spread out in all directions with no obvious geographic constraints, not focused in one or two directions. Basically, even if the urban City of Ottawa had zero population growth and all the growth was in the outlying areas (in reality, maybe one-quarter of the growth is out there), it would be spreading out along 8 to 10 primary axes.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by FFX-ME

Anyway, the city core is full. If you want people to live in the city limits parts of the greenbelt would need to be eliminated.

The city core may be full, but there is still plenty of land in the suburbs as well as plenty of redevelopment opportunities for higher density housing closer to the core. I don't see us running out of land withing city limits for decades if not a century, even keeping all of the green belt.

Many people don't realize how big Ottawa is in terms of land area. While the urban area is only about 500 km^2, the actual city is about 5.5 times that size. Now about 200 km^2 of that is green belt, so that leaves over 2000 km^2 of land that could be developed within the City of Ottawa. Much of that is farm land or swamp, and we may not want to develop it, but that is another issue.

[1overcosc]

A further problem with commute rail in Ottawa is that the communities with the highest number of downtown-bound commuters are not the ones with rail lines... and the communities that DO have railway lines are not a prime source of ridership demand.

Of the valley towns, Rockland and Russell-Embrun have the largest number of Ottawa-bound commuters; in both places, over 70% of the local workforce commutes to Ottawa, and many of them bound for the downtown core. They're the most viable communities to have Ottawa-bound transit.. and they already do, with municipally-operated commuter bus routes (by contrast to the other valley towns which just have one or two privately operated coach trips). However, neither one has a rail line that can be used for commuter rail, not without reactivating abandoned lines.

After those two, Carleton Place is probably third with about 10k people and around 45% of its workforce Ottawa-bound; however, most of that 45% is probably bound for places like Kanata rather than the downtown core, and suburban commutes are harder to serve by transit.

The only places where commuter rail can be launched without having to invest large sums in rehabilitating & reactivating railways, are communities along the VIA lines, like Limoges & Casselman to the east (both of which are too small to have high ridership) and Smiths Falls (which is too far away)... and even then, thanks to the high number of VIA trains, you'd have to add more tracks to remove potential conflicts.

[YOWflier]

In general, I'm against things that make it any easier for people to live far outside the urban area but continue to make their living here, especially if it means they exit the Ottawa tax base and become part of another municipality. It's bad enough that our largest suburb fits this description (well, except for the "far outside" part).