YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Haha it's almost like they forgot to post it then saw my complaint

Lots to digest but a little disappointed at the bottom line growth number, given the amount of new service I was hoping it would have been a bit higher. I haven't crunched the numbers but that doesn't indicate the greatest uptake of the new seats offered. Hopefully June numbers show big growth otherwise I might be a bit worried about absorption of all the new service.

A lot of new capacity is coming online in June and July so I think the May result is quite good. I haven't crunched any numbers per se either but going back to one of my earlier posts in May, a lot of the new services / upgauges hadn't happened yet. And also, with all the new services YVR has garnered in the last couple of years, the base number for comparison is now higher. Adding 1,000 seats to a 10,000 base is a 10% increase but adding 1,000 seats to a 20,000 base is only 5%. So as YVR grows in capacity, the % increase may seem lower but that's because last year's figures would have been substantial already.

[LeftCoaster]

Yes the denominator has most certainly increased, but it looks like I was just overestimating the changes in May.

Outside of a few upguages May saw

• Westjet to LGW 6xPW
• Air Canada to San Jose two times daily
• ANA upguage from 787-8 to 787-9

I thought May was also Dublin, AC dreamliner to LHR and ORD, so I was way off in my expectations. With that said the amount of new service starting in June is just nuts:

• AC dreamliner upguage to EWR
• AC Rouge 3xPW to Dublin
• Air Canada to ORD daily
• AC dreamliner to Brisbane daily
• 1 additional AC Rouge to Osaka
• 1 additional AC dreamliner to LHR daily
• 1 AC to San Diego daily
• AT to Rome 1xPW
• WJ to San Diego 3xPW

When you consider that plus all the changes that occurred in 2016 that were not present in June 2015, like the daily China Southern 777 that started back in March, June has the ability to show a very high level of YoY growth.

[mezzanine]

new post from craig richmond on the YVR blog. It looks like they have finalized an expansion plan for YVR, but will be released later. (in the fall?)

We’ve also been working hard on plans for our future terminal expansion and I’m glad to say that we now have a winning idea. While I can’t share the details yet, I can tell you that we are very excited about our future airport. Having welcomed a record 20.3 million passengers in 2015 and anticipating about 21.3 in 2016 we are on track for 25 million by 2025—and we have a new airport design to support this. So stay tuned for more details.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/craigs-corner-our-101-busiest-days

[LeftCoaster]

Sounds to me like he's sandbagging the number a bit. If we maintain current growth trends of 2016 we are looking at 21.7 so to reduce to 21.3 would mean significantly slower growth than we've seen so far this year.

[LeftCoaster]

Ya just crunched the numbers...

If Craig Richmond is anticipating 21.3 million passengers in 2016 that implies 3.2% monthly growth rate going forward, given current growth through May. That seems unrealistically low and is less than half the growth rate we've seen through the start of the year before many of the new routes have come online.

I was expecting the year end numbers to be around 21.7 million.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Ya just crunched the numbers...

If Craig Richmond is anticipating 21.3 million passengers in 2016 that implies 3.2% monthly growth rate going forward, given current growth through May. That seems unrealistically low and is less than half the growth rate we've seen through the start of the year before many of the new routes have come online.

I was expecting the year end numbers to be around 21.7 million.

Spot on. Based on current trends I would expect the same.

Maybe they are anticipating slower growth later in the year?

Based on future flight scheds right now (comparing to last autumn and winter for example) there doesn't appear to be that much new stuff coming online like last year but still growth is expected.

However, right now of course everything is pointing skywards. I cannot see the momentum slowing in the near term.

June, July, August, September should be strong.

[Johnny Aussie]

AC has just added a daily YVR-SAN flight effective 15 December through the end of April.

The flight will be operated by an Express CRA but will depart at 0855 instead of the rouge evening flight.

The scheds currently show Rouge will pick up the route again effective 29 May 2017.

The current rouge flight ends 16 Oct so a couple of months of no service by AC to SAN until the new flight kicks in.

So far for the upcoming winter, AC will have flights to ORD (daily), SJC (2 daily) and SAN (daily) that didn't exist this past winter. PSP and PHX will have frequency cuts but operated by 763s so overall those markets combined will have slightly more seats than last winter. PSP kicks off earlier as well in mid November. EWR is maintaining the daily 788 which was just a 319 last winter.

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

AC has just added a daily YVR-SAN flight effective 15 December through the end of April.

The flight will be operated by an Express CRA but will depart at 0855 instead of the rouge evening flight.

The scheds currently show Rouge will pick up the route again effective 29 May 2017.

The current rouge flight ends 16 Oct so a couple of months of no service by AC to SAN until the new flight kicks in.

So far for the upcoming winter, AC will have flights to ORD (daily), SJC (2 daily) and SAN (daily) that didn't exist this past winter. PSP and PHX will have frequency cuts but operated by 763s so overall those markets combined will have slightly more seats than last winter. PSP kicks off earlier as well in mid November. EWR is maintaining the daily 788 which was just a 319 last winter.

Seems a bit strange to have a 2-month gap in service in the winter and another 1-month gap in the spring. An aircraft availability issue? Or I suppose SAN is primarily leisure traffic and AC is seeing very low demand during those periods...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

Seems a bit strange to have a 2-month gap in service in the winter and another 1-month gap in the spring. An aircraft availability issue? Or I suppose SAN is primarily leisure traffic and AC is seeing very low demand during those periods...

I am guessing a/c availability. Considering this is a "new route" for AC Express the rouge aircraft being used for the route now is probably allocated in the autumn / early winter already.

As for next summer, I would expect that to change anyway. AC, like a lot carriers, just defaults to the previous year's schedule until the updates come through.

And yes, mid October to early December is very low demand to/from YVR in general.

[Johnny Aussie]

Well tomorrow is the first Xiamen flight from Xiamen... Departs XMN tomorrow to arrive in YVR at 1840 on Monday!

I think that's it for new services for awhile!

[SFUVancouver]

Just boarded my Air Canada flight to Brisbane. It's a 788 for this run. First impression: pretty nice, but nothing groundbreaking so far. Nice interior, essentially an updated 777. Thank goodness the legroom area under the seats is clear of obstruction!

[Hourglass]

^^ safe travels.

Interested to get your impressions on how full the flight was!

[connect2source]

... and some fireworks in the distance!!

[Johnny Aussie]

Westjet is beginning to shuffle some transborder capacity for the upcoming winter schedules.

YVR is gaining a third daily flight to LAX for the winter 2016/2017 schedule.

Adding a late evening departure outbound. Similar to the summer schedule.

Quite a few other transborder routes are being reduced but YVR has escaped any chops... For now at least!

[Klazu]

Vancouver International Airport as seen from Metrotown, Burnaby.

[SFUVancouver]

I'm in Brisbane. I'll resize the photos and add a couple more once I get on a computer.

Short thoughts & answers:

The flight was 100% full in economy. Every seat was occupied. Ours was a 788, so I can see why Air Canada is shuffling their 789s onto the route as fast as possible.

The "Dreamliner effect" is true: the flight was noticably more pleasant for the higher cabin humidity and lower altitude. It was also noticably quieter than a 77W or 772 in economy.

The LED mood lighting is nice and the centrally controlled window tinting makes for an almost blacked-out interior during sleeping times. Subtle but appreciated, and I can't describe how nice it was not to have people opening their window shade and blinding the cabin with daylight during a sleep cycle.

The placement on the seatrest of controls for flight attendent call, reading light (way, way too bright), volume is moronic and clearly chosen by someone/committee who have never taken a flight in economy. Totally ridiculous. The flight attendant calls were going non-stop for the first couple hours.

The seats were comfortable enough, if tight at the shoulders, but they're awfully thin and you can feel when the person behind you jams stuff in the seatback pocket.

Food was poorer than average.

Service was great, though.

[Hourglass]

^^
Thanks! I know loads are not necessarily an indication of profitability, but still good to hear the flight seems to be doing well. Hopefully YVR-MEL is on the cards in the not-too-distant future too...

[Johnny Aussie]

On top of the third daily LAX being added, PSP and HNL are showing additions as well.

LAS and SNA appear to be losing one frequency per week though.

Overall during the peak winter Westjet is scheduling 107 flights per week up from 99 last winter. A good solid 15 flights per day transborder.

Still early but these changes have just rolled in in the last week.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

I'm in Brisbane. ......

The flight was 100% full in economy. Every seat was occupied. Ours was a 788, so I can see why Air Canada is shuffling their 789s onto the route as fast as possible.

.....Food was poorer than average.

Glad this is a popular run. Great to think that 789s are coming to this route.
As for food, Air Canada (as far as I know) has never won any kudos in the cuisine department. Cabin service on Air Canada has always been very good when I've taken it.

[nname]

Sichuan Airlines had applied for 2x weekly Chengdu-Zhengzhou-Vancouver starting October. Some of the frequency will come from reducing service on the Chengdu-Shenyang-Vancouver route. Maybe they would go for 2x weekly each?