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  #8761  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 3:45 AM
SandSailor SandSailor is offline
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7-11, family dollar, liquor? We can do better!
     
     
  #8762  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 3:59 AM
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Originally Posted by DUPio View Post
I also don't understand how Aurora has no centrality to it. It seems almost all Colorado towns have a main street of sorts while Aurora really has no "center".
Very fair question but the answer is not complicated.

Aurora grew primarily as a bedroom community driven mostly by the presence of Cherry Creek School District and the easy commute to the DTC or DIA. East of I-225, CCSD is generally south of Hampden Ave. Along with this corridor there was also adjacent growth mostly along and south of Iliff Ave.

I could get into the demographic and socioeconomic influences but I'll save it. It is worth noting that Aurora did a nice job of creating diversity within CCSD through zoning. Generally, Smoky Hill Road divides more dense areas to the north from the more genteel property to the south.

At least some of Aurora's potential lies in it's location. The biggest growth has come between I-225 and E-470 (and beyond). The access to major employer hubs is excellent if you think about it. With light rail, there will be great access for many to both downtown Denver and DIA in addition to the tech center. There is some notable existing commercial and more to come especially along I-70 and the Buckley Road/6th Ave. corridors. There could even be hope for the Aurora City Center - in time.

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Originally Posted by SandSailor View Post
7-11, family dollar, liquor? We can do better!
I get that, expected it, but it's more about just having positive activity and Peoria/Colfax is an ideal retail corner for this smaller scale stuff and you missed that the liquor store is going bye, bye for redevelopment.
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Last edited by TakeFive; Jul 18, 2016 at 4:21 AM.
     
     
  #8763  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 4:06 PM
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Originally Posted by lumos View Post
When walking back I saw that Confluence is losing the northern tower crane as the short building has topped out, leaving 14 more floors to go on the Southern building.
17 more to go it'll top out at 34!

I took some photos of it this weekend:

The Confluence:











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  #8764  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 5:13 PM
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It would be so awesome if we could get a skinnier 50-60 story version of this on the empty lot of 12th and Welton.
     
     
  #8765  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 5:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Robert.hampton View Post
http://www.businessden.com/2016/06/07/de...site-finally-finds-an-office-of-its-own/

Looks like the lot at 20th and Penn is under contract with the developer looking at for-sale condos. A lot of new units going in around Benedict Fountain......
I still am intrigued by this newer development group given partly to the fact that Trevor Hines is a son of Gerald D. Hines obviously one of the more prominent developers, especially of office buildings in the country. I see that they leased office space at 1601 Wewatta St. which is a Hines/Perlmuter development. I'm sure they didn't get a sweetheart deal.


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Originally Posted by transistor View Post
Aurora is still stuck in the mindset that if it continue gobbling up plains all the way to Kansas, it will at some indeterminable point become a great city.
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Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
Do you have a better idea? There's not a lot of empty land closer than that, at least not enough to build single-family units affordably. We have outlawed condos. Are we all supposed to live in shitty apartments and rent for the rest of our lives? Because unless you are giving up on the aspiration of homeownership, we have no choice but to sprawl. I personally think Aurora has a much brighter future than we let on. Eventually we will run out of new millennials to pack into overpriced apartments, demographics don't lie. And people will not want to rent forever. Denver will become impossible for them.
This is a very valid perspective. Additionally I've suggested (depending on one's job quality/pay) that Millennials can also easily pack up and move on to a more affordable city without better options in Denver.

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Originally Posted by transistor View Post
They could raise property taxes to account for the fact that single family homes do not generate enough tax revenue to be worth it. Use this money to provide decent services and to make the city an actual city instead of a suburb with zero things to do.
Couple of things and bunt does further explain taxing issues, but...

In the sprawling Phoenix metro area these issues don't seem to be a problem. Most metro cities do have healthy impact fees but property taxes are not high at all. I believe that sales tax funds a lot of their needs. It is said that retail follows rooftops and of course so do schools.

With respect to activities, families, especially young families with kids have plenty of activity in their lives. Their lives revolve mostly around their kids and the school district, not to mention seeing the latest Disney movie.

With respect to families living within Cherry Creek School District the vast majority would have no interest in moving to or living in Denver. CCSD is awesome not only for their quality of education but also for their ability to serve a diverse population including families who have children with disabilities. For most people school district quality is the number one criteria for where they choose to live. Aurora wouldn't be an ideal place for singles perhaps but then again single moms also care about schools.

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Originally Posted by trubador View Post
IMO, if Aurora wants to establish a renaissance, they need to embrace Colfax. They have a start with Anschutz, but instead of offering tax deals to hotels by the airport, they should be doing that for the colfax corridor. Start at 225 and move in both directions. Tear down the abandoned buildings, offer incentives to developers, and improve the street presence with trees and wide sidewalks.
Some of this is already starting to happen. With respect to tax breaks/incentives they have used them in this area. It's why there's that (relatively) nice, shiny new hotel and conference center on the south side of Colfax.
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  #8766  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2016, 8:13 PM
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Some observations regarding our taller (projects over 200') development trends:
  • Of the 22 or so projects over 200', 2 are complete, 13 are under construction, 2 are extremely close to starting construction (Coloradan and 21st/Welton), 4 are proposals working way through process, and 1 is basically a pipe dream (Bell Tower).
  • The 4 proposals that are likely to become reality are: Block 162 Office, Block 162 Hotel, Block 173 Hotel, and Residential tower at Colorado Center.
  • Only one residential project (Colorado Center) over 200' is proposed.
  • Based on previous inventory, that's not a lot in pipeline. Seems as if the development community is being conservative on future demand to warrant height. It will be interesting to see if anyone pulls the trigger on anything in 2016.

     
     
  #8767  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 12:32 AM
DenverPoke DenverPoke is offline
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Originally Posted by PLANSIT View Post
Some observations regarding our taller (projects over 200') development trends:
  • Of the 22 or so projects over 200', 2 are complete, 13 are under construction, 2 are extremely close to starting construction (Coloradan and 21st/Welton), 4 are proposals working way through process, and 1 is basically a pipe dream (Bell Tower).
  • The 4 proposals that are likely to become reality are: Block 162 Office, Block 162 Hotel, Block 173 Hotel, and Residential tower at Colorado Center.
  • Only one residential project (Colorado Center) over 200' is proposed.
  • Based on previous inventory, that's not a lot in pipeline. Seems as if the development community is being conservative on future demand to warrant height. It will be interesting to see if anyone pulls the trigger on anything in 2016.

I was thinking the same thing this morning, things definitely seem to be slowing down. Not sure what to make of it. I do like a lot of the smaller projects being announced, some great infill on vacant lots.
     
     
  #8768  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 1:42 AM
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
Couple of things and bunt does further explain taxing issues, but...

In the sprawling Phoenix metro area these issues don't seem to be a problem. Most metro cities do have healthy impact fees but property taxes are not high at all. I believe that sales tax funds a lot of their needs. It is said that retail follows rooftops and of course so do schools.

With respect to activities, families, especially young families with kids have plenty of activity in their lives. Their lives revolve mostly around their kids and the school district, not to mention seeing the latest Disney movie.
Arizona property taxes are on average 33% higher than in Colorado. Coupled with the somewhat similar income tax rates and extremely high sales tax rates, Arizona simply has more funding per capita to buy nice things.

But people still convince themselves they live in a low tax environment in that state. Go figure.
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  #8769  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 3:10 AM
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Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
Arizona property taxes are on average 33% higher than in Colorado. Coupled with the somewhat similar income tax rates and extremely high sales tax rates, Arizona simply has more funding per capita to buy nice things.

But people still convince themselves they live in a low tax environment in that state. Go figure.
Hmm, does your sales tax figure reflect a temporary "recession 1% sales tax" that existed for 3 years and is now expired? That said they do seem to be higher in many places than the Scottsdale or Phoenix taxes that I relate to but the differences aren't that much. Colorado average looks close to 7.75% while Arizona is closer to 8.25%. 2016 sales taxes for Arizona and Colorado.

Not sure where your 33% is coming from for property taxes? If you're looking at assessment rates remember that property down here has maybe a third less value than in Denver. Income tax rates which have been progressive are coming down every year towards zero is the plan.

Checking the Tax Foundation their 2015 rank for "Tax Freedom Day" has Arizona rated 15th and Colorado rated 36th. The 2016 State Business Tax Climate Index has rated Colorado 18th and Arizona is rated 24th, which should continue to drop over the next three years. Don't believe that I've promoted Arizona as a low tax state as I keep track of these things. I do know they're efforting to get there though.
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  #8770  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 6:15 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLANSIT View Post
Some observations regarding our taller (projects over 200') development trends:
  • Of the 22 or so projects over 200', 2 are complete, 13 are under construction, 2 are extremely close to starting construction (Coloradan and 21st/Welton), 4 are proposals working way through process, and 1 is basically a pipe dream (Bell Tower).
  • The 4 proposals that are likely to become reality are: Block 162 Office, Block 162 Hotel, Block 173 Hotel, and Residential tower at Colorado Center.
  • Only one residential project (Colorado Center) over 200' is proposed.
  • Based on previous inventory, that's not a lot in pipeline. Seems as if the development community is being conservative on future demand to warrant height. It will be interesting to see if anyone pulls the trigger on anything in 2016.

How much time is there typically between announcement and grounbreaking, outside of a special case like the performing arts complex? My impression is that it's not very long in Denver.

Cities with a lot of "proposed" projects are often the cities where projects are announced much earlier. In my city, the first 80mg downloadable design presentation is at least a year out and often multiple years. We hear about a lot of projects, but also a smaller percentage get built.

That said, a gap wouldn't be surprising given oil and the size of the boom so far.
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  #8772  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by RyanD View Post
The garage took me by surprise. This is going to look nice, and hopefully they brick the whole thing.
You can get a few glimpses in this video. Not entirely bricked, but not bad.

Video Link
     
     
  #8773  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 5:44 PM
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I'm not entirely surprised, the City of Denver now requires that parking garages to be given exterior architectural treatments to look like buildings, and usually require some sort of retail space, though maybe not this one?
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  #8774  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 5:45 PM
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Originally Posted by PLANSIT View Post
Some observations regarding our taller (projects over 200') development trends:
  • Of the 22 or so projects over 200', 2 are complete, 13 are under construction, 2 are extremely close to starting construction (Coloradan and 21st/Welton), 4 are proposals working way through process, and 1 is basically a pipe dream (Bell Tower).
  • The 4 proposals that are likely to become reality are: Block 162 Office, Block 162 Hotel, Block 173 Hotel, and Residential tower at Colorado Center.
  • Only one residential project (Colorado Center) over 200' is proposed.
  • Based on previous inventory, that's not a lot in pipeline. Seems as if the development community is being conservative on future demand to warrant height. It will be interesting to see if anyone pulls the trigger on anything in 2016.
I'm getting a feeling and it's not a warm fuzzy feeling that construction of new office space is about to come to a screeching halt in downtown. My guess is also that Block 162 is toast, at least for a couple of years.

The problem with oil & gas is that while it's only a modest negative it's also no longer the driver for space that it once was. There's currently over 2 million SF under construction (according to Ken) although 1601 Wewatta will soon flip 300,000 SF from UC to the completed column and so far they haven't leased a lot of space. Of course I wouldn't know how many leases may be under negotiation.

With 1401 Lawrence heading to the finish line with ~300,000 SF and 1144 15th Street in mid-flight with another 600,000 SF I don't see any room for additional larger projects. Smaller more niche office projects *may* be able to move forward.

I suspect the same holds true for at least larger hotel projects where there's currently over 1,100 rooms UC.

The good news is that there is just a ton of projects under construction currently.
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  #8775  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 6:31 PM
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Originally Posted by PLANSIT View Post
You can get a few glimpses in this video. Not entirely bricked, but not bad.
Nice, it still looks like some paneling and what not. Better than this:


http://houston-texas-us.blogspot.com/2016/01/main-street-skyhouse-clone-close-to.html


http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=213179
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  #8776  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 7:22 PM
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I was pretty surprised how much I liked the skyhouse as I drove by it. I passed it going down 18th, so I got the skinny side of the building, but my eyes moved right past the garage to straight to the new building. I wish we didn't have the sea of parking lots around 19th and Broadway, but the skyhouse is a nice addition.
     
     
  #8777  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 8:07 PM
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That I.M. Pei building in the background is getting painted silver. This is like the 4th building to get a new coat of paint or a recladding in the last year or so.
     
     
  #8778  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 8:16 PM
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Originally Posted by The Dirt View Post
That I.M. Pei building in the background is getting painted silver. This is like the 4th building to get a new coat of paint or a recladding in the last year or so.
I can understand(ish) painting the beige even though I'm not a fan of 1660 Lincoln and its new grey. However, the I.M Pei getting painted silver is ridiculous. I like the dark contrast from the glass canopies to how it sits with 1600 Broadway and Republic Plaza. Now it's just going to blend in even more. But who knows, maybe it'll look better.
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  #8779  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 8:24 PM
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Originally Posted by trubador View Post
I was pretty surprised how much I liked the skyhouse as I drove by it. I passed it going down 18th, so I got the skinny side of the building, but my eyes moved right past the garage to straight to the new building. I wish we didn't have the sea of parking lots around 19th and Broadway, but the skyhouse is a nice addition.
I think Art Deco is a natural style for American skyscrapers - it allows for a more pleasing form than the international/postmodern designs we have in Denver but without excessive ornamentation. Denver seems like it lacks the large 1925-1945 buildings you find in places like LA, though there are a lot of smaller multifamily examples in Cap Hill.
     
     
  #8780  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2016, 8:56 PM
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Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
Arizona property taxes are on average 33% higher than in Colorado.
I'd also be curious where you got this. And is it in real dollars, or as a rate. Because property values are certainly much lower.

Also hard to know what "average" means in Colorado. You can pay 78 mills in Park Hill, or cross the street and pay 134 mils in Stapleton. To say nothing of rates in some of the more far flung suburbs. "Average" doesn't mean much.
     
     
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