Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalKid
I work in real estate and have done tons of similar analysis, and let me say Costar is ABSOLUTE TRASH when it comes to multi-family. It is really only good for office. I mean just look at the numbers in their report: "It also includes CIM Group’s 888 South Hope, which is expected to open 526 units in South Park later this year." Inaccurate. "Carmel Partner’s 700-unit Eighth & Grand project, however, was only about 25 percent occupied five months after opening." The project hasn't even been open for 5 month.
I'm not arguing that Downtown won't become temporarily over supplied, that is definitely a possibility. I'm just arguing that this "report" is trash.
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Agreed,
Citywatch,
you did not quote the entire article, having left out at least half of what was written. Also, even though the gist of the article was to illustrate what happens when new construction is introduced to the market--absorption rates typically fall, and vacancy rates typically rise relative (usually) to the amount offered. This would be expected in a dynamic market where lots of construction is taking place, yet the author of the study does not say so. He only indicates that 2016 will be a challenging year for those developers who are leasing projects. Also, the author looses a vast amount of credibility when he says,
"The crane action includes mega-developments like Jamison and L&R’s 648-unit Circa project, which recently broke ground across from Staples Center, and is expected to deliver in 2017.
It also includes CIM Group’s 888 South Hope, which is expected to open 526 units in South Park later this year. While massive, they are only two among more than a dozen luxury developments in the works."
This incredibly inaccurate (for the record CIM has been "dicking" around with this project for many years and in my opinion has
not yet broken ground much less able to "deliver in 2017) comment tells me that he Bashir either does not live in downtown, does not even live in southern California, or is probably preaching his "real estate opinions" from maybe an office in New York. I mean, come on, I even know better than that and I live in Fucking Yucaipa (90 miles east of downtown). This is not a simple mistake or oversight anyone who has knowledge of downtown would know this, including all of those on this forum. It also tells me that the author of the main article (for Costar) did not do his homework. I say take it for what it is--poorly written and poorly researched "trash.'
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