So StatsCan numbers came out today and showed further growth in Vancouver employment, in fact it showed downright stupid levels of growth.
Vancouver has added 79,900 jobs over the past 12 months. For those of you who don't track that, that's insane. That equates to a growth rate of 6.3% YoY... the kinda numbers China is now fudging to achieve.
So that got me thinking, most economists predict Vancouver will continue to lead Canada in growth for the next 5 years, even assuming a return in the price of WTI you guys are supposed to outgrow the Albertan cities. If in fact that is the case what could YVR look like in 5 years. So I took my old chart:
And had some fun with it:
Now let me note before we get started that this is an assumption of what could be, given a huge set of circumstances go very well. So Trofirhen don't you go asking me when LATAM is starting to Sao Paolo
Some interesting changes you may note:
Air New Zealand - Apparently they are miffed at LAX on their treatment related to their AKL-LAX-LHR so I figured, what if they shipped it up here instead (it's a shorter routing afterall) and JV'd with their star alliance partner Air Canada on it. AC drops their second frequency to LHR, freeing up the 789 for Frankfurt, and lets NZ run it.
Air Canada - Not too many changes here, a few upgauges, a couple obvious new routes (Taipei, Frankfurt and Melbourne), but no major growth to China. Perhaps this is a something I could add on but so far it seems the Chinese airlines have been much more aggressive than AC so I've given the new routes and capacity to them.
Air Canada Rouge - Air Canada has a lot of 767s coming to Rouge and I figured a few of them must be hitting YVR. These all seemed sensible routes to me both from a range and PAX standpoint. It's pretty euro heavy but the 763 doesn't hit too many cities in Asia, and frankly asia is usually premium strong from YVR so Rouge seems better deployed to Europe IMO.
Rest of Star Alliance - Star Alliance by far sees the bulk of the growth here. Air China goes full 3x daily on a 777, Swiss takes over from Edelweiss (don't really see it happening but wouldn't it be great?), Thai, Turkish, Singapore and Asiana all rumored growth coming to fruition. Avianca I almost took off but didn't I think we are going to see a turn around in the minerals sector over the next few years and that combined with Colombia's strong economic growth could make a 3x 788 viable. Copa to panama is a bit of a long shot but it's just a 737 and they ordered a ton of them so it's possible.
One World - Not much of a change here, JAL upgauged to a 789 and Qantas going daily (will be a 789 or A350 but there are no seat maps for those yet so I just left it on a 744). Can't think of any other changes YVR will see from One World.
Sky Team - All predictable changes here, Air France daily, a few more frequencies for MU, and the big change here being the addition of LATAM. Might be a dumb call given the painful growth in South America these days but LATAM has a bunch of new A350 and dreamliner metal and they need to send it somewhere. Ties in very well with MU, CA and CZs Asian connections.
No Alliance - A few big changes here, figure Transat will send another 333 our way at some point. picks off a few once a week destinations similar to what they just did at Rome. Hainan was the big change here with Shenzhen and Xian, but I think both those markets make sense and with the other big Chinese players already locked into their hubs the pickings are there for Hainan. Volaris to Guadalajara also makes sense, though it was a toss up between that or Monterey. Maybe both?
So that is how I see the world at YVR in an optimistic sense. One I took off at the last moment but wouldn't be surprised to see in 5 or so years (maybe a bit longer) would be Iran air. They want to grow their business and there is a large wealthy Persian diaspora here. Makes sense to me. Would probably kill Turkish's business though.
What do you guys think? Too much? Not enough? Miss anything obvious?
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.... the 2021 "fun" version ^^^^^^
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