DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[enjo13]

I'd like some of the pretty buildings they're getting in Seattle Was there last week and that place is going bonkers.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by mhays

Denver and Seattle have always been neck and neck on pretty much every list.

I suspect Seattle will stay slightly ahead in the 2016 estimates, with roughly similar growth. The greenfield point is true, but Seattle's economy seems a little more supercharged right now vs. the slight oil-related cracks in Denver that might be turning great to only very good.

Both of us seem pretty impervious to a real fall right now, because so many economic sectors are doing well for us, such as the overflow we're both getting from San Francisco and the rise in tourism we're both seeing.

On that note, DBJ is reporting that Colorado's 5 year run of adding jobs ended in April and unemployment rate ticked up to 3.1 percent. Perhaps an early sign of a cooling? (Though 3.1 percent is still awesome).

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by enjo13

I'd like some of the pretty buildings they're getting in Seattle Was there last week and that place is going bonkers.

Agreed. Architecture wise there's no contest - Seattle is so far ahead of Denver it makes your head spin. And further North.. Vancouver, a city smaller than Denver, it's just wow. It's like we aren't even on the same planet, sadly. I could probably find 50 buildings built in the last 10 years in Vancouver that I like better than anything ever built in Denver.

[mhays]

We're surrounded by Vancouver and Portland which are each phenomenal in their own ways, with plenty to be jealous of. Especially Vancouver, and not just architecture. For decades, every time I've gone there there's been a dozen, or a few dozen, residential highrises underway. I guess that's how you end up with the hundreds they have now.

While I like a lot of Seattle architecture (and I don't comment much on it because I work for a contractor), there's a "grass is greener" tendency. Look at the LA construction threads, or Minneapolis, or Portland, or San Diego. Even in Vancouver a lot of people complain.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Agreed. Architecture wise there's no contest - Seattle is so far ahead of Denver it makes your head spin. And further North.. Vancouver, a city smaller than Denver, it's just wow. It's like we aren't even on the same planet, sadly. I could probably find 50 buildings built in the last 10 years in Vancouver that I like better than anything ever built in Denver.

Higher prices for residential tends to do that, along with a strong corporate presence. Denver has been seriously lagging behind in the development of our local corporate presence- though here's hoping that some of those startups that are now expanding to the 500-plus employee level continue to expand and have visions of grand HQ's downtown.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Higher prices for residential tends to do that, along with a strong corporate presence. Denver has been seriously lagging behind in the development of our local corporate presence- though here's hoping that some of those startups that are now expanding to the 500-plus employee level continue to expand and have visions of grand HQ's downtown.

How do you explain Portland then? Although it's subjective, I much prefer Portland's infill architecture to Denver's and nowadays the two cities are about equal in terms of housing costs. Also, PDX's corporate presence is even worse than Denver's

[mhays]

In P/S/V, a reduced amount of parking is a big savings. Also all three limit parking above-grade so it's mostly below and the rest is mostly hidden. That reduces the "one building on top of another" syndrome.

Vancouver's buildings are often sculptural shapes that are very expensive, designed to draw another x% per square foot in a market where showiness helps. In Portland it's often about minimalistic adornment of simple structures.

Housing prices can be high when people really value being in a specific neighborhood or street. Portland has concentrated areas like that aided by topography.

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

On that note, DBJ is reporting that Colorado's 5 year run of adding jobs ended in April and unemployment rate ticked up to 3.1 percent. Perhaps an early sign of a cooling? (Though 3.1 percent is still awesome).

Way to small a data point. There's going to be a bit of churn in the job numbers for the next few months thanks to Sports Authority going belly up and some continued oil & gas stuff. If things are trending backwards in November I'd start to worry a little. It's not like we're going to get under 3% in unemployment.. we're likely at the floor at this point.

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

How do you explain Portland then? Although it's subjective, I much prefer Portland's infill architecture to Denver's and nowadays the two cities are about equal in terms of housing costs. Also, PDX's corporate presence is even worse than Denver's

Portland has a condo market, we don't. Just about every building I think you're referring to are condo's. The apartment buildings out that way are largely the same basic stuff we're seeing here. That's true of Seattle too FWIW, I should have taken a picture from my hotel room. Capitol Hill in Seattle is a sea of 5-story EIFS buildings just like ours.

I 100% believe that within one year of the state actually fixing the condo defect issue (which at this point may never happen) we'd see 4-5 Portland style buildings out of the ground.

There are actually lots of lessons we can learn from Portland. The importance of fixed rail in terms of stimulating desnse urban growth. What's happened along their streetcar line is remarkable. What they do with food trucks and pods should be straight up copied, and could be done with one simple change at the city council level (Austin is seeing this as well). I've been in touch with my council person for years on that subject, they have no intention of making it easier to operate food trucks here. Which sucks, it's great for neighborhood development.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by enjo13

Way to small a data point. There's going to be a bit of churn in the job numbers for the next few months thanks to Sports Authority going belly up and some continued oil & gas stuff. If things are trending backwards in November I'd start to worry a little. It's not like we're going to get under 3% in unemployment.. we're likely at the floor at this point.

Also, "adding jobs" and "the unemployment rate" are not in lockstep with each other. It's not uncommon for X number of jobs to be added while the unemployment rate also ticks up.

But the slight decrease in jobs per the DBJ article was for all of Colorado and was quite small, and there's the possibility that subsequent revisions could change those numbers, up or down. The DBJ also reported that Metro Denver's unemployment rate didn't change.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by enjo13

I 100% believe that within one year of the state actually fixing the condo defect issue (which at this point may never happen) we'd see 4-5 Portland style buildings out of the ground.

I suspect you're right. So frustrating. By the time it gets "fixed" I wouldn't be surprised if the current boom had cooled off, or reversed if there were a national recession (which of course there will be sooner or later).

Also reducing (abolishing?) parking minimums could help, like mhays suggested. Of course most developers would still include parking for now, but it could add flexibility for developers in certain neighborhoods now and increasingly so in the future.

[mhays]

Parking reductions would be of two major types:

1. The average highrise might do fewer spaces. They'd decide that their 300 units would be ok with 250 spaces instead of whatever is required now, and save a few million dollars. Or they'd do more units.

2. Smaller sites and smaller units would make FAR more sense than they do now. Picture a single lot where multi-level parking would be absurdly inefficient. Suddenly instead of four townhouses they can do 40 micros, at prices a new admin assistant can afford.

I realize I'm harping on this topic. But it's important.

[comoneymaker]

Try not to poop yourselves.

https://vimeo.com/147510443


https://vimeo.com/166437624


You can find a lot here.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?&q=aerial+denver&qft=+filterui:videoage-lt525600&FORM=R5VR7

[Robert.hampton]

It looks like Historic Denver/CHUN is pushing to oppose the non-historic designation of the Smileys laundromat at Downing/Colfax. Honestly that building isnt worth saving, and the renderings that included incorporation of the building just seemed awkward. I hope they go ahead with the tear down.

Sounds like a bunch of neighborhood groups are also petitioning city council to ban micro apartments (or at leas the no parking requirements attached to them). That should be interesting.

[bunt_q]

Neighborhoods in Denver are impressive. They somehow manage to be wrong nearly 100% of the time. They support the wrong things, oppose the wrong things, and generally stand for the proposition that people get dumber in large groups.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by rds70

Here is the status of the projects, plus others not on your list:

Residential Project Units

76 2560 Welton 130 - Building permit review (Now called The Lydian)
77 Alexan Arapahoe Square 353 - Building permit review
78 AMLI Riverfront Green 304 - Building permit review
79 Ascent Union Station 142 - Still in planning
80 Colfax Marketplace 74 - Still in planning (Now called Route 40 with 185 units)
81 Coloradan 342 - Building permit review
82 Industry Apartments 277 - Building permit review
83 Market Station 225 - Still in planning
84 Parkside Apartments 161 - Building permit review
85 Renaissance Downtown 101 - Building permit review

Proposed Total 2,109

Others:

Alexan 20th Street Station 354 - Building permit review
SOVA 211 - Building permit review
Legacy Speer 322 - Building permit review
909 Bannock Street (Bannock and Speer) 301 - Building permit review

Thank you, thank you.

With all that's under construction on top of the pipeline, my pea brain can't keep up. Got it bookmarked for quick reference now.

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Neighborhoods in Denver are impressive. They somehow manage to be wrong nearly 100% of the time. They support the wrong things, oppose the wrong things, and generally stand for the proposition that people get dumber in large groups.

That's why I think you're spot on with the whole TOD thing. The only way to avoid neighborhood backlash is to build where there are no people, which in an urban context are dilapidated industrial neighborhoods. The only way to build mass transit and not piss off the neighbors is to also build in industrial corridors.

I remember seeing a news story back in the early days of the W line construction where some guy was suing RTD for their use of eminent domain. Nowadays, the W line is mostly useless because RTD had to concede to the neighbors concerns and run their trains at 25 MPH through western Denver. These same neighbors are fighting and kind of TOD development at the stations due to traffic. Direct democracy doesn't work when your community are ignorant and can't see the big picture past their front porch.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Neighborhoods in Denver are impressive. They somehow manage to be wrong nearly 100% of the time. They support the wrong things, oppose the wrong things, and generally stand for the proposition that people get dumber in large groups.

Seems like only the anti-development property owners are motivated enough to get involved and show up at council meetings though. There's a debate raging on the NextDoor app (kind of a family friendly craigslist for one's neighborhood) about the parking exception moratorium, but I'm too lazy to type out my thoughts. Fortunately there are several people who are opposed to the NIMBY sentiment.

If there were an existing anti-NIMBY (YIMBY, if you will) organization of some kind for the city/my neighborhood, I'd be more inclined to get involved and maybe even show up at city council meetings. Is there any kind of precedent for that?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

That's pretty amazing - so for all the boom in construction - in Denver's case, perhaps the greatest in the City's history - the message is there hasn't been enough construction. These numbers suggest that talk of a Denver bubble (see Colorado Real Estate Journal http://www.crej.com/news/negative-trifecta-coming-denver-market/) is for now premature.

We are only now reaching the level of construction in Denver that the metro area had in 2007!!

http://www.denverrealestatewatch.com/2016/02/10/housing-starts-jump-31-percent/.

The evidence if anything suggests under-building, not over-building. That of course can and certainly will at some point change. But from here, given the lead time for projects, that seems some years down the road. Of course a severe recession could always change things but as of today the "bubble" theory is hard case to make.

Marcel C. Arsenault, the author of that piece is what I call a "perma-bear." There's alway gloom around the next bend.

With respect to apartments I've suggested downtown and nearby neighborhoods seem headed for a (badly needed) oversupply over the next 18 months. How problematic or long lasting that might be is another question.

Today's Image of the Day is also via CREJ.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

If there were an existing anti-NIMBY (YIMBY, if you will) organization of some kind for the city/my neighborhood, I'd be more inclined to get involved and maybe even show up at city council meetings. Is there any kind of precedent for that?

There is precedent in other cities. And something a few of us on here have talked about getting started in earnest for a long time now.