AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[hookem]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Which ones are you thinking of, and where were they located? Which(any?) were VMU?

I'm curious about this too. I can think of many cases of the opposite, where older 80s complexes with existing problems were "converted" to more upscale-like places (mostly just slapping on a new paint job and fancy name, then upping the rent), but I can't think of any recent (like in the past decade or two) "upscale" new places that went south. I'm sure some will eventually go that way, but I'm at a loss about which ones austlar1 could be referring to.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by atxsnail

I guess this will be better than the current state of abandonment for this shopping center, but we should all be lamenting the loss of a great opportunity for something special. apparently the previously associated developer had big plans for the location (complete teardown and VMU redevelopment) but UT, who owns the property, refused to grant a long-term lease on the land. as a result we'll end up with a facelift which is nice, but it's really a shame considering the prime location next to Crestview Station.

On the plus side of that coin, sounds like this doesn't preclude that happening in the future (on the long scale). It's not like they're leveling it and then building a new 1 story.

UT just takes a long time. How long have we been waiting on the former MCC, more dense use of Pickle, Brackenridge tract, etc.

[austlar1]

I am not referring specifically to "upscale" complexes, and maybe my time frame of 15 to 20 years is a bit short. I am pointing out that many large conventional mass market apartment projects in Austin built within the last 25 to 40 years have come upon hard times. There are entire neighborhoods in Austin (E. Oltorf area and, until recently, the Riverside Drive area; the area just north of 183 and west of Lamar extending up to Burnet along Rundberg and Rutland; the area east of 35 and north of 183 on or near Cameron Road; Wm. Cannon area east of 35 and a few large complexes off Wm. Cannon to the west of 35; and other random locations all over the city and also in some suburbs) where large complexes have become blighted with crime, drug dealing, overcrowding, and poverty. As far as I know, none of the large so-called VMU projects have experienced similar outcomes, but these projects are mostly still shiny and new. I am just speculating that some of these new projects will probably face similar problems over time. The boom in Austin won't last forever. If and when the rental market loosens up a bit and these new projects begin to require major expenditures for upkeep, some of them will change hands. At some point these big developments will need to attract tenants in a more competitive environment. The big projects located in less attractive areas are likely to hit the skids. Not all of them, but probably quite a few of them will become law enforcement nightmares unless there are major efforts to secure the perimeters and weed out criminal elements. I think the smaller mixed use projects will be easier to maintain and face overall a brighter future. Location will, as always, likely be the major determining factor in how well any of these projects fare over time.

[austlar1]

I'm kind of old and probably won't be around to collect, but I would wager that large projects along Burnet Road to the south of Anderson will do better over time than anything built north of Anderson. I think new projects on South Lamar probably have a brighter future than the ones on North Lamar, especially north Lamar beyond Keonig. Both North Lamar and N. Burnet are simply too wide and unattractive to be fixed by the presence of a few shiny new VMU projects. The streetscape is a disaster.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I won't be around to collect, but I would wager that large projects along Burnet Road to the south of Anderson will do better over time than anything built north of Anderson. I think new projects on South Lamar probably have a brighter future than the ones on North Lamar, especially north Lamar beyond Keonig. Both North Lamar and N. Burnet are simply too wide and unattractive to be fixed by the presence of a few shiny new VMU projects. The streetscape is a disaster.

All that you have to do is add a planted median and wider sidewalks and you solve the visual problem.

[atxsnail]

Originally Posted by Novacek

On the plus side of that coin, sounds like this doesn't preclude that happening in the future (on the long scale). It's not like they're leveling it and then building a new 1 story.

UT just takes a long time. How long have we been waiting on the former MCC, more dense use of Pickle, Brackenridge tract, etc.

Very true, this doesn't preclude any eventual redevelopment or sale of the property. But given that this tract wasn't a game-changing item like PRC or Brackenridge, I had high hopes that they would simply be willing to sell to someone with a nice vision of something to help anchor all of the coming changes to the Airport Blvd area. I don't know how long a supermarket lease usually runs, but I don't think we'll get to see a material difference in use/form for decades. The area can still use a grocery store, it would just have been preferable to get something a little more vertical and with less surface parking.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I am not referring specifically to "upscale" complexes, and maybe my time frame of 15 to 20 years is a bit short. I am pointing out that many large conventional mass market apartment projects in Austin built within the last 25 to 40 years have come upon hard times. There are entire neighborhoods in Austin (E. Oltorf area and, until recently, the Riverside Drive area; the area just north of 183 and west of Lamar extending up to Burnet along Rundberg and Rutland; the area east of 35 and north of 183 on or near Cameron Road; Wm. Cannon area east of 35 and a few large complexes off Wm. Cannon to the west of 35; and other random locations all over the city and also in some suburbs) where large complexes have become blighted with crime, drug dealing, overcrowding, and poverty.

But how many of those started out as high-end luxury housing?

Especially anything east like you mention. Seems like it started as cheap housing (not "very desirable") and stayed that way.


And housing doesn't extend to Burnet from Lamar. There's a huge industrial area there with no housing.

Originally Posted by austlar1

If and when the rental market loosens up a bit and these new projects begin to require major expenditures for upkeep, some of them will change hands. At some point these big developments will need to attract tenants in a more competitive environment.

Honestly, overall that would be _great_ for Austin, if we could actually build ourselves out of the hole we're in.
Everything (historical growth rates of the past 150 years, Austin's regulatory environment and NIMBY neighborhoods) points to the exact opposite. Continued limited supply with no end in sight.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I'm kind of old and probably won't be around to collect, but I would wager that large projects along Burnet Road to the south of Anderson will do better over time than anything built north of Anderson.

There's almost no difference in RoW or Urban form, and very little demographic difference, between Burnet north and south of Anderson lane.

183 is really where the cutoff is (as far as urban form and zoning).

Originally Posted by austlar1

Both North Lamar and N. Burnet are simply too wide and unattractive to be fixed by the presence of a few shiny new VMU projects. The streetscape is a disaster.

IMO, it's actually the exact opposite. North Burnet actually has the RoW to put in attractive streetscape. Have you seen/read the corridor planning studies?

https://www.austintexas.gov/department/corridor-studies

South Lamar has the advantage of location (closer to downtown) but it's so narrow (and basically no realistic chance of vehicle lanes being removed). Narrow sidewalks, missing bike lanes, no street trees or furniture, no bus pullouts or queue jumper lanes.
I know they're trying to do corridor improvements along South Lamar, but a lot of that rests on acquiring land or easements from the fronting properties (which is going to be hard).

[austlar1]

The determining factor right now has to do with the quality of the surrounding neighborhoods. Close in Burnet (which is narrower south of Koenig) and the South Lamar corridor are simply much more appealing neighborhoods, and they are likely to remain so. Much of the North Lamar corridor and the far North Burnet corridor are surrounded by dreary neighborhoods with some very unattractive features that won't immediately disappear with the introduction of a street median and some trees planted. It could all change up there, but short term I would not hold my breath. BTW there are lots of run down apartments along Rutland as far north as Metric. You are splitting hairs because I am sure you are aware of the large number of troubled complexes that dot that entire neighborhood. Ask nearby homeowners who will tell you that they have missed out on much of the boom in housing prices due to their proximity to these complexes and the nearby street crime. These apartments and the others mentioned by me in earlier posts were not built as slum properties. They were seen as reasonably priced and fairly desirable places to live. I find myself wondering how long cheaply constructed and poorly sound-proofed large stick-built projects filled mostly with studio and small one and two bedroom units are going to be perceived as upscale. Some will hold that distinction longer than others, but Austin would be much better served to see smaller versions of these building put up. They add to the diversity of the streetscape and are much more attractive to look at. These mega structures may have retail (if you can call nail salons, tanning salons, pilates studios, etc retail) at street level, but the blocks are long and tedious. Some are nicer than others, but mostly they don't seem to invite the pedestrian to go out and take a stroll.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by hookem

I'm curious about this too. I can think of many cases of the opposite, where older 80s complexes with existing problems were "converted" to more upscale-like places (mostly just slapping on a new paint job and fancy name, then upping the rent), but I can't think of any recent (like in the past decade or two) "upscale" new places that went south. I'm sure some will eventually go that way, but I'm at a loss about which ones austlar1 could be referring to.

See my postss in response to Novacek. I was not specifically talking about upscale properties. You guys introduced that term here. I was referring to apartment complexes that were built for middle class (whatever that term may have meant at the time, but I think it might not be too different from the target demographic of many of the new mega structures today) renters, These complexes were considered decent by any standard and even somewhat luxurious at the time they were built. I have also seen a lot of those conversions of 80s complexes that you mentioned. Almost all the complexes adjacent to South Lamar on Manchaca and many on S. First have been redone or converted to condo. Something similar has happened to projects in neighborhoods north of UT inside 183 and west of 35. Seems to me that one thing these rehabs have in common is that most of them are small to medium sized complexes, and they are located in desirable or up and coming neighborhoods. Some of the new mega stick builds are pushing the envelope in terms of location, and I have a bad feeling about the long term prospects for most of them.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Close in Burnet (which is narrower south of Koenig) and the South Lamar corridor are simply much more appealing neighborhoods, and they are likely to remain so.

Incrementally and slightly, as they're slightly closer to downtown.

Burnet is a whole single turn lane narrower. Are you really trying to claim that Allandale (north of Koenig, so with that very unappealing turn lane) is an undesirable neighborhood?

There's no change in width from north to south of Anderson (your previous statement). Are you changing the goalposts?

Originally Posted by austlar1

Much of the North Lamar corridor and the far North Burnet corridor are surrounded by dreary neighborhoods with some very unattractive features that won't immediately disappear with the introduction of a street median and some trees planted.

Which neighborhoods? Which features?

I can't even tell where you're talking about anymore, as far north Burnet (Pickle, Domain, etc.) isn't surrounded by _any_ neighborhoods.

Originally Posted by austlar1

It could all change up there, but short term I would not hold my breath. BTW there are lots of run down apartments along Rutland as far north as Metric.

You mean as far West as Metric?

Originally Posted by austlar1

You are splitting hairs because I am sure you are aware of the large number of troubled complexes that dot that entire neighborhood.

The Apartments on Rutland furthest west are almost a mile from Burnet road.

Originally Posted by austlar1

Ask nearby homeowners who will tell you that they have missed out on much of the boom in housing prices due to their proximity to these complexes and the nearby street crime.

Uh, no, they'll tell you about how their property values recently doubled. I ought to know, I sold my property in NACA a couple years ago (and part of me certainly wishes I had kept it).

Originally Posted by austlar1

These apartments and the others mentioned by me in earlier posts were not built as slum properties. They were seen as reasonably priced and fairly desirable places to live.

They weren't built as slums, no, and they're not slums now. But they certainly weren't built as top shelf, desirable properties.

Those aforementioned ones on Rutland. Industrial-adjacent property wouldn't have been considered highly desirable 30 years ago. Especially with it being so far out at the very edge of the city then.

Originally Posted by austlar1

I find myself wondering how long cheaply constructed and poorly sound-proofed large stick-built projects filled mostly with studio and small one and two bedroom units are going to be perceived as upscale.

And your evidence that they are either poorly constructed or poorly soundproofed is...?

Originally Posted by austlar1

These mega structures may have retail (if you can call nail salons, tanning salons, pilates studios, etc retail) at street level,

And restaurants. And bars.

Have you ever driven by any of these places we're talking about?

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

See my postss in response to Novacek. I was not specifically talking about upscale properties. You guys introduced that term here. I was referring to apartment complexes that were built for middle class (whatever that term may have meant at the time, but I think it might not be too different from the target demographic of many of the new mega structures today) renters, These complexes were considered decent by any standard and even somewhat luxurious at the time they were built.

So not "upscale", but
"luxurious" and "very desirable"

oookaay

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by austlar1

See my postss in response to Novacek. I was not specifically talking about upscale properties. You guys introduced that term here. I was referring to apartment complexes that were built for middle class (whatever that term may have meant at the time, but I think it might not be too different from the target demographic of many of the new mega structures today) renters, These complexes were considered decent by any standard and even somewhat luxurious at the time they were built. I have also seen a lot of those conversions of 80s complexes that you mentioned. Almost all the complexes adjacent to South Lamar on Manchaca and many on S. First have been redone or converted to condo. Something similar has happened to projects in neighborhoods north of UT inside 183 and west of 35. Seems to me that one thing these rehabs have in common is that most of them are small to medium sized complexes, and they are located in desirable or up and coming neighborhoods. Some of the new mega stick builds are pushing the envelope in terms of location, and I have a bad feeling about the long term prospects for most of them.

Speaking for N Lamar, the Crestview station is creating progress in the surrounding area. With the development of the apartments, restaurants, and houses in the attached neighborhood, I could see a lot of transition happen along that corridor from 183 south. Plus, there's still land for further development facing Lamar itself right there. With that increase in density (and rents north of $1500 and mortgages north of $2000), and the ACC development to the east, I think you'll see N Lamar around Airport make some big changes in the next few years.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

Speaking for N Lamar, the Crestview station is creating progress in the surrounding area. With the development of the apartments, restaurants, and houses in the attached neighborhood, I could see a lot of transition happen along that corridor from 183 south. Plus, there's still land for further development facing Lamar itself right there. With that increase in density (and rents north of $1500 and mortgages north of $2000), and the ACC development to the east, I think you'll see N Lamar around Airport make some big changes in the next few years.

I agree. North Lamar around Airport and towards Anderson has good prospects. Past Anderson and 183 I think it will take a miracle.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by Novacek

So not "upscale", but
"luxurious" and "very desirable"

oookaay

Must you always be so unpleasant? I have watched you operate here for some time, and you are usually spoiling for a fight. I am not interested.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

Speaking for N Lamar, the Crestview station is creating progress in the surrounding area. With the development of the apartments, restaurants, and houses in the attached neighborhood, I could see a lot of transition happen along that corridor from 183 south. Plus, there's still land for further development facing Lamar itself right there. With that increase in density (and rents north of $1500 and mortgages north of $2000), and the ACC development to the east, I think you'll see N Lamar around Airport make some big changes in the next few years.

I'm interested in how that area will develop also. I'm hoping that it continues to grow more dense around those two Metro stops.


Regarding Burnet, I don't think it'll grow much between Anderson and 183 in the near future, but there is so much potential up by the Domain area - and there's been some growth already next to the "shopping mall" that is the Domain. I'm hoping that future developments in that area, specifically along Burnet, take more urban approaches with their street interaction and don't only focus on the Domain itself...a true neighborhood can develop more and more - even (and hopefully) pushing over to the Kramer Metro stop.

Speaking of Kramer, it seems to me on Google Earth that they're pushing Kramer Lane through to connect all the way to Domain Dr. Is that the case or is the dirt that seems to be moving in the satellite photo just utility work?

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Must you always be so unpleasant? I have watched you operate here for some time, and you are usually spoiling for a fight. I am not interested.

You tried to mischaracterize me

Originally Posted by austlar1

You guys introduced that term here.

And I corrected that.

Luxury and upscale are synonyms.

You keep contradicting yourself, and I'm trying to figure out what you're claiming.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I agree. North Lamar around Airport and towards Anderson has good prospects.

And again you contradicted yourself.

Originally Posted by austlar1

I think new projects on South Lamar probably have a brighter future than the ones on North Lamar, especially north Lamar beyond Keonig. Both North Lamar and N. Burnet are simply too wide and unattractive to be fixed by the presence of a few shiny new VMU projects. The streetscape is a disaster.

You called N Lamar north Koenig (which is where Crestview is located) a disaster and too wide.

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

Speaking for N Lamar, the Crestview station is creating progress in the surrounding area. With the development of the apartments, restaurants, and houses in the attached neighborhood, I could see a lot of transition happen along that corridor from 183 south. Plus, there's still land for further development facing Lamar itself right there. With that increase in density (and rents north of $1500 and mortgages north of $2000), and the ACC development to the east, I think you'll see N Lamar around Airport make some big changes in the next few years.

N Lamar from the Triangle to 183 is ripe for mid-size apartment infill. You can already see select spots where some of the bigger developments are successes, even when they feed directly on to Lamar. I agree that a median with planters and turn lanes would improve quality of life and desirability, but I'm not sure you even need that at this point.

And if Austin's growth trajectory keeps on keeping on, the area around Rundberg and Lamar will definitely gentrify. If only because the distance from downtown is going to be marginally to people than going further out.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by Novacek

You called N Lamar north Koenig (which is where Crestview is located) a disaster and too wide.

He's not wrong about this one. It is ripe for development, but also it's a huge honker of a road and needs a serious diet asap. I mean, it's 7 LANES wide north of Airport. Seven! Why?!