Warning: Novel ahead! Approach with caution.
AC has been treating YVR so well! 789 service to Narita, Seoul and Shanghai!
I remember, back in the 2007-2013 time period (before Project XM really got into gear), YYZ got all the new birds at the expense of YVR, which seemed cursed with ancient aircraft. This was around the time I started hearing about AC/YYZ trying to stop the ME3 from starting service from YVR to MENASA.
YYZ got all the A340-500s, 777-200LRs and 777-300ERs with seatback TVs. YVR was mostly stuck with a motley crew of 767s, A330s and A340s that were between 15 and 25 years old and had ancient overhead projectors:
- Original AC 767-300ERs (delivered 1993-1995)
- A340-300s (one delivered in 1993, the rest from 1995-1999)
- Ex-Canadian Airlines 767-300ERs (From 1988! just after CP Air's merger with PWA)
AC854/855 to LHR also switched between 763s and 333s, as did AC29/30 to PEK and AC33/34 to SYD.
As Project XM spread to the older A330s and 767s, and non-XM 333/763 were retired, I started feeling happier, but was still disappointed that AC wouldn't bring more 777s to YVR. AC7/8 to HKG was the only 77W flight, and we also got a 77L on the YYZ-SYD route since AC33/34 stopped over here.
TATL flights were also pretty painful to see.
Lufthansa sent A340-300s to YVR instead of A380s or 787-8i's (that LH 74H that
hopped to Vancouver from Paine Field in 2012 doesn't count since it was a non-revenue flight. If I recall, it was LH's first 74H delivered, having finished testing at PAE and making a short visit to YVR before continuing on to Germany). The 346 were nice but starting in 2014 they were replaced with LH's ancient 744s. There was always a chance you'd be on a non-retrofitted aircraft (the route got the 2-class 744s initially) and have overhead TVs in economy instead of seatback TVs.
KLM had freakin' MD-11s coming to YVR! Not to mention it was a quasi-seasonal flight: only daily from May to October, and 4x weekly the rest of the year (with the other three flights per week diverted to YYC). Kind of a shame that such an important Skyteam hub got relatively skeleton service. Even now KL682/681 is still a 5x weekly 333 outside of the summer months, where it's a daily 772.
Thankfully, BA was a rare high point in YVR's longhaul doldrums, with twice-daily 744s in the summer and daily 744s the rest of the year, a great competitor to AC's A330s and 767s. It was a shame that AC/YYZ threw a tantrum at the federal government and chased away Virgin Atlantic's service to YVR.
I shouldn't forget, JAL used to have twice daily 744s (JL11/12 and JL17/18) to Narita...then the triple whammy of the global financial meltdown, bankruptcy and 3/11 reduced that to a solitary daily 767-300ER. Even now, Vancouver-Japan traffic is still served by 787-8s, with nary a 787-9 or 777 in sight (with the exception of ANA which upgauged its Vancouver-Haneda service to a 789). Would it kill JAL to send a 77W over, or ANA to send a 388 or one of their upcoming 777X's over? At least AC3/4 is being upgauged to a 789 in the winter, hopefully it'll be a 77W in summer 2017.
Fast forward to 2016 and it's been incredible how things have improved. AC started (or will be starting) service to Brisbane, Silicon Valley, San Diego(!), Mexico City (!), and New Delhi (!!!). Okay, YVR-DEL is a seasonal route for Diwali, YVR-SAN is a seasonal AC Rouge A319, and YVR-SJC is an AC Rouge CRJ, but I'll take what I can get.
More praise for AC...they're now 789s on routes that only a few years ago were being served by 333s and 763s. Unfortunately, YVR-EWR doesn't get a 789, only a 788. Still pretty good considering it used to be an A319 flying to one of the fastest growing airports in the U.S. (It's much closer to Manhattan than JFK! Which probably ties into EWR's booming pax numbers.)
What's more, there are now 3 flights daily to LHR on new planes (AC 77W, AC 789 (seasonal), BA 388), and we finally get daily year-round nonstop flights to Paris and Latin American destinations. From no mainline flights to Latin America at all to twice-daily YVR-MEX!
With that being said, YVR still has work to do on the MENASA side, and apart from AC72/73 coming this October, I am not hopeful. AC already has service from Toronto to three key MENASA destinations (all using 789s): a daily YYZ-DEL (AC70/71), a 3x weekly YYZ-DXB (AC56/57) alongside Emirates' 3x weekly 388 (EK242/241), as well as a daily* YYZ-IST (AC810/811) alongisde Turkish Airlines' 6x weekly 77W (TK18/17).
I believe it is a certainty that AC and YYZ will cry bloody murder to the federal government if the ME3/TK even dares try to reopen bilateral treaties for YVR-DXB/YVR-IST service, and even under Justin Trudeau, I also believe it is a certainty that the feds will be protectionist--the Liberals bailed out Bombardier, after all. (I have some other worries about how the Trudeau government could potentially be protectionist, but those are related to the auto and telecoms industries and so are off topic for this thread--you can PM me if you really want to hear my ramblings.)
I believe it was this kind of protectionism that motivated EK to start 2x daily SEA-DXB service (using a 77W because Sea-Tac can't handle the A380), to snatch up YVR-MENASA traffic that doesn't fly AC or China Southern (or just don't want to have to transit in Guangzhou).
My opinions on the ME3 seem to shift by the day, between ambivalence due to lax labour regulations in the UAE/Qatar) and the potential to cannibalize LH and ULH routes, and awe due to their profitability and quality of service.
However, that profitability stems from the fact that the ME3 has no short/medium haul routes (longhaul is the most profitable area for any airline) and lax labour regulations in the GCC countries, which cuts down on overhead. I think that's what U.S. airlines mean when they talk about how ME3 airlines are subsized.
I don't know if the ME3 get larger (direct) state subsidies than U.S. airlines or Air Canada do, but I doubt it. In GCC countries, you can employ people on the super-duper cheap, with all the absence of worker's rights that entails. Namely, Qatar Airways treats their cabin crew like slaves, something that has gotten the attention of the ILO in a city.
About cannibalization: There are rumours circulating on Airliners.net that EK's expansion to SEA cost them a few airlines; in YVR, an ME3 airline might cannibalize Star Alliance routes since YYZ and FRA are both major *A hubs to MENASA. AC and LH have worked hard to build up their service at YVR, and I have little doubt that one of the reasons LH493/492 upgauged from a 343 to a 744, and BA switched from 2x daily 744s to a 1x daily 388 was to compete against EK228/227 and EK230/229, AC70/71, AC56/57 and CZ330/329 for Vancouver-MENASA traffic, especially among business travellers (trying to tap into Vancouver's diverse population, I guess). It's not just AC, LH and BA who might lose out; Skyteam airlines might as well. I've seen some competitive KLM and AF YVR-DEL fares recently (for YVR-DXB, no one can beat BA's fares, not even AC).
All the same, an ME3 carrier would be awesome for travellers to the eastern Med/Levant. My parents are from Ethiopia, and my dad goes there every year. I think I've mentioned my experiences flying from YVR to Addis previously, SFUVancouver you may know. But flying out of YVR is surprisingly expensive; the lowest 1-stop fares to Addis I found were in the $1,700 to $1,800 range. (2-stop flights via Doha or Nairobi like YVR-LAX-DOH-ADD or YVR-AMS-NBO-ADD are about $1,400, but sometimes comfort is more important than price. This is one of those times.) ME3 service to YVR might make YVR-Addis (and this goes for other overlooked destinations in the Levant or Africa as well) much, much cheaper.
Another area where I think YVR needs improvement is direct flights to Southeast Asia. A nonstop YVR-SIN would be at the top of my list, but a YVR-BKK would be nice too, or even YVR-KUL or YVR-CGK, since Malaysia and Indonesia are emerging economic powers. Unfortunately, something tells me that demand from YVR to SE Asia is decreasing, since Phillippine Airlines recently cut its YVR-MNL service from 11 weekly (daily 77W, 4 weekly 343) to just the daily 77W, despite Vancouver's large Filipino community and the economic boom the Phillippines is enjoying. Why so few direct flights to SE Asia, not even a direct YVR-SIN? Are they not necessary due to YVR's broad network in areas well connected to the region (south China/Taiwan, Japan, Australia/NZ)? Is it because AC/YYZ would complain about bilaterals like with MENASA?
I have a request. Does anyone have access to internal statistics from airlines or airports about the final destination of their onward passengers, or the proportion of their pax who are VFR/leisure compared to the more lucrative hub/business travellers?
I am not privy to such information, so I have to rely on anecdotes
Like this one from the Vancouver subreddit or infer from checking on the ITA Matrix, Skyscanner.ca, etc. on which airline has the lowest fares out of YVR (to DEL, it's CZ or MU. To DXB, it's BA).
It would interesting if I saw data from the YVR airport authority, on how many people that take BA84 are flying on to DXB, TLV, JNB, etc. Or, Emirates keeping track of how many pax on EK228 or EK230 connected from YVR. Or, the proportion of YVR travellers flying to some non-direct longhaul final destination who are low-yielding O&D VFR/leisure/tourism traffic, compared to high-yielding business travellers in the premium cabins. Something like, "we've found that x% of YVR-DEL traffic is O&D", or "x% of passengers on LH493 were flying onward to DEL". Something like that.
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