BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[csbvan]

"This one other Premier in....Saskatchewan.....does it too" is not a good argument.

Christy Clark has been paid over a quarter million dollars in just 5 years.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/brit...-years-from-bc-liberals/article29781433/

That money went:

Political contributions->Liberal Party of BC-> Christy Clark.

To personally benefit over a quarter of a million dollars from outside interests while being in power is inexcusable. This is not rocket science. If those cheques were written from donors to Clark that would be illegal. Instead the Liberal Party is used as a conduit for that money and that somehow makes it legal?

Give me an argument that justifies that, please.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Oh brother. Cry me a river. That is the most partisan BC NDP rhetoric that I have read in this thread yet. Same spiel all over the internet by well-known BC NDP partisans. They are called the "Holier Than Thou Crowd"... until they get caught at the proverbial cookie jar.

If you are really concerned about your "moral compass" ... then ya obviously ain't gonna vote BC NDP either. Your only bet is to vote for Andrew Weaver and the BC Greens and I suspect that Weaver will make some major inroads during/after the 2017 election leaders' debate.

Now let's look at some similar fact evidence. Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall is also paid an annual leader's stipend of $37,000 by the Saskatchewan Party who also attends fundraising events for the SK Party:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchew...sed-wall-top-up-salary-details-1.1072177

Ya know what? SK premier Brad Wall and the SK Party won another landslide majority gov't just a few short weeks ago:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/saskatchewan-votes

PS. I also voted Liberal in October, 2015.

For someone not involved with the BC Libs you seem to get awfully defensive when they're criticized.

Let's recap: wealthy individuals pay the BC Liberal Party to get access to Christy Clarke at events. She in turn gets paid a cut. Sounds to me like the BC Libs are the pimp, and she's the....well you get the idea.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Sounds to me like the BC Libs are the pimp, and she's the....well you get the idea.

Please, Christy's definitely the pimp. Just look at how often Stone and Fassbender get smacked until they behave right.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by whatnext

For someone not involved with the BC Libs you seem to get awfully defensive when they're criticized.

Let's recap: wealthy individuals pay the BC Liberal Party to get access to Christy Clarke at events. She in turn gets paid a cut. Sounds to me like the BC Libs are the pimp, and she's the....well you get the idea.

Defensive? Haha. Oh man. Ya know what? I have deliberately stayed under the political radar in terms of political fundraising my entire life. Know too many folk that just get inundated with that —.

The only political donation that I have ever made in my entire life was a few BC elections back... concerning/after a signed monthly commercial tenancy... 'cause I felt sorry for the guy when he asked. 'Twas a BC NDP candidate in a no-hope Metro Van riding. Just felt sorry for the likable guy and I gave him a couple of hundred bucks.

And that's it in terms of my lifetime poli donations. My excess funds all goes to charity. As it should be.

PS. How about BC NDP leader Horgan going to Toronto for a $5,000 per head breakfast fundraiser? Toronto? Huh? And then only a handful of people showing up? Organized by an Ontario lobbyist for Bruce Power? Ya know... a "nuclear power" lobbyist. Waaaaayyyy cool.

And ya know what? When Gary Mason (I personally know the guy) of the G & M asked Horgan about BC Libs/BC NDP fundraising about a week back... Mason, in a subsequent column, noted that Horgan misled/deceived him about same. Say what?

Just the hypocritical "Holier Than Thou Crowd" again. The current BC NDP modus operandi is to see if "anything sticks" to the BC Libs. Hell... they have no economic plan or anything else to hang their hats onto and they know that they are dead in the water otherwise. BTW, remember the well-publicized "ethnic-gate" scandal prior to the 2013 BC election?

Didn't matter 'cause the alternative was the BC NDP - a terrible political brand as confirmed over and over again. As Keith Baldrey has previously noted, most folk are immune to "scandals" in BC when it comes to the ballot box. Even NDP stalwarts across Canada view the BC NDP as the most left-wing of the provincial NDP wings these days. Basically they have all but abandoned the centrist middle ground.

Ya might as well fess up... until a federal Liberal-type party usurps the BC NDP in opposition.... the BC Libs will continue to win elections in perpetuity (without a credible right-wing party to split the vote - none currently extant) as history confirms. The BC NDP brand is just "unelectable" in most of BC's 87 ridings. Period. Just BC poli 101.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Defensive? Haha. Oh man. Ya know what? I have deliberately stayed under the political radar in terms of political fundraising my entire life. Know too many folk that just get inundated with that —.

The only political donation that I have ever made in my entire life was a few BC elections back... concerning/after a signed monthly commercial tenancy... 'cause I felt sorry for the guy when he asked. 'Twas a BC NDP candidate in a no-hope Metro Van riding. Just felt sorry for the likable guy and I gave him a couple of hundred bucks.

And that's it in terms of my lifetime poli donations. My excess funds all goes to charity. As it should be.

PS. How about BC NDP leader Horgan going to Toronto for a $5,000 per head breakfast fundraiser? Toronto? Huh? And then only a handful of people showing up? Organized by an Ontario lobbyist for Bruce Power? Ya know... a "nuclear power" lobbyist. Waaaaayyyy cool.

And ya know what? When Gary Mason (I personally know the guy) of the G & M asked Horgan about BC Libs/BC NDP fundraising about a week back... Mason, in a subsequent column, noted that Horgan misled/deceived him about same. Say what?

Just the hypocritical "Holier Than Thou Crowd" again. The current BC NDP modus operandi is to see if "anything sticks" to the BC Libs. Hell... they have no economic plan or anything else to hang their hats onto and they know that they are dead in the water otherwise. BTW, remember the well-publicized "ethnic-gate" scandal prior to the 2013 BC election?

Didn't matter 'cause the alternative was the BC NDP - a terrible political brand as confirmed over and over again. As Keith Baldrey has previously noted, most folk are immune to "scandals" in BC when it comes to the ballot box. Even NDP stalwarts across Canada view the BC NDP as the most left-wing of the provincial NDP wings these days. Basically they have all but abandoned the centrist middle ground.

Ya might as well fess up... until a federal Liberal-type party usurps the BC NDP in opposition.... the BC Libs will continue to win elections in perpetuity (without a credible right-wing party to split the vote - none currently extant) as history confirms. The BC NDP brand is just "unelectable" in most of BC's 87 ridings. Period. Just BC poli 101.

I don't agree with 99% of your posts, but this needs to be highlighted and repeated.

BC will forever be controlled by the LINOs unless a new progressive party near the centre or with a different name than NDP becomes present in the province.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Defensive? Haha. Oh man. Ya know what? I have deliberately stayed under the political radar in terms of political fundraising my entire life. Know too many folk that just get inundated with that —.

You are getting pretty worked up about what is obviously a gross misuse of funds and should be an insult to anybody that truly believes in democracy. It doesn't matter what party is engaging in this behaviour.

You keep pointing back to the BC NDP, as if that has anything to do with the facts at hand, and the money changing hands today.

I can only assume that you'd be fine with the BC NDP receiving a donation of $500k from the BCTF, consequently forming government, giving their new premier a $100k "winning bonus" and subsequently entering into negotiations with the BCTF over a new collective agreement. No problem there, right?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I don't agree with 99% of your posts, but this needs to be highlighted and repeated.

BC will forever be controlled by the LINOs unless a new progressive party near the centre or with a different name than NDP becomes present in the province.

The reformation of the BC Conservatives or some type of Social Credit/Reform party would split the right as well. If the NDP can make it in Alberta, there's a possibility anywhere.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Now let's look at some similar fact evidence. Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall is also paid an annual leader's stipend of $37,000 by the Saskatchewan Party who also attends fundraising events for the SK Party:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchew...sed-wall-top-up-salary-details-1.1072177

Great! But instead of racing to the bottom of the ethical barrel why can't Christy Clark instead mimic PEI premier Wade MacLaughlan who keeps the lower salary of a cabinet minister and donates all of the extra money he gets for being premier to the United Way.

But I guess BC's economic condition is in such — shape that even the premier needs two paying jobs to get by.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The reformation of the BC Conservatives or some type of Social Credit/Reform party would split the right as well. If the NDP can make it in Alberta, there's a possibility anywhere.

It wouldn't necessarily take even that. A BC Green party with a more dynamic leader (Weaver may be smart, but not exactly a barn burner). A few candidates with name recognition, along the lines of Peter Ladner, and the BC Libs would bleed of as many votes as the NDP IMHO.

Stingray2004 does some great political analysis, but he seems blind to the fact that vast swaths of the province don't like Christy, or the BC Libs. When you're not liked, it's easy for the public to turn away from you, no matter how competent you claim to be. Ask Stephen Harper.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Seeing the state of affairs in BC right now, Christy and her Liberals need to go and I will be voting NDP.

But theres 2 things I need to point out, Political reality and what I personally want. Most BC ridings are a lock for the Liberals out of the starting gate.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Seeing the state of affairs in BC right now, Christy and her Liberals need to go and I will be voting NDP.

But theres 2 things I need to point out, Political reality and what I personally want. Most BC ridings are a lock for the Liberals out of the starting gate.

Just like much of BC was a lockup for the Harper Conservatives right?

35% of BC voted Green + NDP federally, 30% voted Conservative, 35% voted Liberal Party of Canada. The left-leaning parties did better federally in BC than anywhere else in Canada West of Quebec, the Conservatives did their worst. I would say that no party in BC should ever be considered inevitable when the place is so clearly politically volatile. The Liberal Party of BC will need to hold on to a good chunk of Federal Liberal Party voters to remain in power, I don't think that their messaging is geared toward that at the moment.

As a side note, the 2013 Provincial Election results: BCLP- 44.1%, BCNDP- 39.7%. I don't think that the Libs can afford scandal here, especially when added to the inevitable incumbent government malaise that affects long serving governments.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Just like much of BC was a lockup for the Harper Conservatives right?

35% of BC voted Green + NDP federally, 30% voted Conservative, 35% voted Liberal Party of Canada. The left-leaning parties did better federally in BC than anywhere else in Canada West of Quebec, the Conservatives did their worst. I would say that no party in BC should ever be considered inevitable when the place is so clearly politically volatile. The Liberal Party of BC will need to hold on to a good chunk of Federal Liberal Party voters to remain in power, I don't think that their messaging is geared toward that at the moment.

As a side note, the 2013 Provincial Election results: BCLP- 44.1%, BCNDP- 39.7%. I don't think that the Libs can afford scandal here, especially when added to the inevitable incumbent government malaise that affects long serving governments.

I really hope you are right.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Just like much of BC was a lockup for the Harper Conservatives right?

35% of BC voted Green + NDP federally, 30% voted Conservative, 35% voted Liberal Party of Canada.

That's an improper sweeping generalization though.

Firstly you need to see how 2011 fed election voters in BC voted and their vote migration in 2015:

1. Con: 45.5% in 2011; 30.0% in 2015... 15.5% migration of 2011 Con voters to Liberal in 2015;

"blue" liberal/red tory vote switchers - centre-right voters;

2. NDP: 32.5% in 2011; 25.9% in 2015... 6.3% migration of 2011 NDP voters to Liberal in 2015 and 0.3% migration to Greens in 2015;

"red" liberal/centre-left vote switchers;

3. Liberal: 13.4% in 2011; 35.2% in 2011... gained 2011 "blue" liberal/red tory vote switchers by more than a 2 - 1 margin over 2011 "red" liberal/centre-left vote switchers;

4. Green: 7.7% in 2011; 8.2% in 2015 - largest margins on southern half of Van Isle;

Now look at some areas where the federal Liberals won seats/areas in BC in 2015:

"blue" liberal/red tory demographics:

1. North Shore (North Vancouver/West Vancouver)
2. Richmond;
3. South Delta;
4. White Rock proper (albeit not the riding);
5. Kelowna;
6. South/west side of Van City proper;

Provincial seats/areas super-imposed upon same are also BC Liberal strongholds; Highly doubtful that the NDP is an option for these voters - whether federally or provincially.

"red" liberal/centre-left demographics:

1. Van City's West End;
2. Van City's Kitsilano;
3. Northern Surrey;

Provincial seats/areas super-imposed upon same are also BC NDP strongholds;

I have access to colour-coded federal riding by riding maps online with colour-coded polling stations for each riding. Excellent analytical tool.

So where did the Cons win in 2015? Mostly in resource areas in BC's interior such as the mining region of the Cariboo, Prince George, nat gas basin in NE BC... even the large met coal region in SE BC's Elk Valley - with the Cons winning up to 75% in a polling station. Surprising.

At the end of the proverbial day, election campaigns do matter as proven both provincially in 2013 and federally in 2015 confirms. That's where the average voter focuses upon politics - esp. during the last 2 weeks of a campaign. Outside of campaigns, typically only ~10% of folk follow politics.

And I will again re-iterate that voter "Top of Mind" issues in BC have historically always been the economy, jobs, taxation, fiscal management, health care, etc. according to CATI pollster Mustel.

And how did these issues impact voters during the 2013 BC campaign? Ipsos (opt-in online panel) conducted an exit day poll of May, 2013 BC voters and these were their findings:

The top issues influencing vote decisions were as follows:

Open and honest government (71% rated as ‘very important’)
The BC economy (65% rated as ‘very important’)
Health care (60% rated as ‘very important’)
Trust in a particular leader/party (58% rated as ‘very important’)
Government spending (56% rated as ‘very important’)
Leadership (56% rated as ‘very important’)

On this—as key motivators to get out the vote—the BC Liberals won big among voters who rated the economy and government spending as ‘very important’.

Economy voters chose the Liberals by a 24-point margin over the NDP (56% BC Lib vs. 32% NDP), which is an improvement from a May 6-8 survey that had the Liberals ahead by 7 points on this issue.

Government spending voters chose the Liberals by a 20-point margin over the NDP (53% BC Lib vs. 33% NDP), which is an improvement from a May 6-8 survey that had the Liberals ahead by only 2 points on this issue.

The BC Liberals also won with voters who rated leadership as ‘very important.’

Leadership voters chose the Liberals by a 9-point margin over the NDP (48% BC Lib vs. 39% NDP). This is a reversal from our pre-election survey when Christy Clark trailed Adrian Dix by 13 points as best premier. It also differs from our May 13 survey that had Adrian Dix ahead by a single point.
On health care, the BC Liberals managed to cut the gap to the NDP.

Health care voters chose the NDP by a 12-point margin over the BC Liberals (49% NDP vs. 37% BC Lib), which is an improvement from a May 6-8 survey that had the Liberals behind by 18 points on this issue.

And trust, pushed as an issue by the NDP throughout the campaign, barely registered as a differentiator between the two parties.

Trust voters chose the NDP by only a 5-point margin over the BC Liberals (45% BC Lib vs. 40% NDP).

On open and honest government, the NDP held on to a lead.

Open and honest government voters chose the NDP by a 10 point margin over the BC Liberals (47% NDP vs. 37% BC Lib), mostly unchanged from a May 6-8 survey where they had a 12 point lead.

With the issues, on balance, being won by the Liberals in the late stages of the campaign compared to what they were at the outset of the campaign, the desire for change dwindled as ‘very important’ to only 40% of voters.

Stalwarts in the NDP voter camp embraced the change message (76%) by a wide margin over other parties, but because it did not translate amongst other voters the issue of change as a motivator essentially evaporated. In this case, it’s obvious that Liberal voters were more motivated to stop change rather than NDP voters, who, in smaller numbers, wanted change.

Further, the current mood of the province is now much more positive than negative and this translated into votes for the BC Liberals: half of BC voters (51%) felt that BC overall is currently on the right track, as compared to 32% who felt that the province is on the wrong track.

Voters who thought the province is on the right track voted overwhelmingly for the BC Liberals (74% voted BC Lib). Wrong track voters went almost as strongly for the NDP (71% voted NDP), but there just weren’t enough wrong track voters for the NDP to win.

[csbvan]

All that I was highlighting in that response to the post above, was that BC politics is unpredictable, and that you can never assume that a party has an election locked up. Hence the drastic shifts here federally between 2011 and 2015.

With the last election having a 4% margin, there is little reason to assume that the election will be anything but competitive.

[csbvan]

The Globe's anti-corruption crusade continues:

B.C. Liberals should end unethical payments to Premier Clark
Christy Clark, the Liberal Premier of British Columbia, cannot think of a single reason why she shouldn’t have accepted $277,000 in payments from her party in the past five years. But we can think of one: It’s unethical.

Ms. Clark is an elected official who is paid $195,500 annually, plus living allowances and other perks, by the people of her province to lead the government. Voters expect her to work in good faith and represent their interests without favour.

But Ms. Clark has a second well-paying employer – the Liberal Party. The party she leads gave her $50,000 in 2015 and the same amount this year.


It is perfectly fine for the Premier to serve as head of government and to also campaign for her party and help it raise funds. But having dual responsibilities is different from having dual incomes.

It would be illegal, for instance, for Premier Clark to accept a second salary from a major oil and gas company or a real estate developer. But, in essence, she is doing just that.

B.C. law allows political parties to accept unlimited donations from corporations, unions and individuals. Last year, the Liberals raised $5.3-million from corporations in the oil and gas industry, in real-estate development and sales, in forestry, and so on. They also took in $3.4-million in large individual donations, some well into five figures. Very few of the party’s donors gave $250 or less, the kinds of amounts average people can manage.

Ms. Clark has attended party fundraisers at which donors are promised intimate access to her in exchange for $10,000 and more. It is a serious breach of ethics for parties to trade access to politicians for cash. The breach becomes even more egregious when some of the cash is transferred to the Premier.

Premier Clark is effectively being paid by parties seeking her favour. The disclosure documents showing the source of Liberal Party donations make this an indisputable fact. Filtering the money through the party does not create a reliable or credible distance between the donors and the Premier.

Virtually all the other provinces know this is unacceptable. They prohibit legislators from accepting money from political parties, or simply avoid the practice because it is so unsavoury. Ms. Clark and the B.C. Liberals should get with the times and do likewise.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/e...yments-to-premier-clark/article29791271/

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by csbvan

All that I was highlighting in that response to the post above, was that BC politics is unpredictable, and that you can never assume that a party has an election locked up. Hence the drastic shifts here federally between 2011 and 2015.

With the last election having a 4% margin, there is little reason to assume that the election will be anything but competitive.

Yeah. But federally ya have 3 1/2 parties - Con, Lib, NDP, and Green.

In BC, ya have 2 1/2 parties - BC Lib, BC NDP, and BC Green. And the BC NDP brand is too toxic to too many people - too many folk still have images of the 1990's BC NDP gov't in their heads. In BC it's always the "lesser of two evils" when voters go to the ballot box.

So let's see when the BC NDP actually won an election:

1. 1972 - WAC Bennett had been in power too long as premier for 20 years and was getting long in the tooth. After 10 years, a leader passes his/her best before due date;

And that's where the Socreds split their vote with both the then PCs and BC Liberals allowing the BC NDP to sneak up the middle in many seats;

2. 1991 - Socreds were self-immolating and the BC NDP under Harcourt had a large lead in public opinion polls. Was a slam dunk. Or was it? During the campaign, voters were not enamoured with the NDP brand either. So at the leader's debate an unknown BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson stole the show. So much so that a then tracking poll showed them surging and even slightly over-taking the BC NDP. "Twas unreal.

As a matter of fact, internal BC NDP strategists thereafter confided to the Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer that had the election lasted just one more week the then BC Liberals would have won gov't;

3. 1996 - The BC Liberals won the overall popular vote share by 3% but the BC NDP had a 4 seat majority - with with Reform/PDA splitting centre-right/right vote. Since then numerous new ridings (mostly centre-right demographics) have been added in BC and I posit that had those same seats been extant back in 1996, the BC Liberals would have win the election.

Even heading into the 2017 election, 2 new seats have now been added in Richmond and South Surrey respectively - both centre-right demographics and BC Lib strongholds.

4. 2013 - for many months leading up to the April, 2013 campaign, the BC Lib's "Ethnogate" scandal dominated the news. The BC NDP was leading by up to 20% in opinion polls. If ever there was an election that the BC NDP should have won it was 2013. Even then the BC NDP dropped ~2.5% in their popular vote share from 2009.

Now I will also posit that without JT, I doubt the fed Libs would have won the 2015 election. Based upon polling ~2 weeks prior, the Cons were ahead. JT was a superb "retail" politician. And elections are very leadership focused/driven these days. Mulcair was not a good retail politician. Neither was Harper.

So, in that context, let's looks at BC: Clark is known to be a good "retail" politician. OTOH, Horgan has many traits/persona akin to Mulcair. If ya liked Mulcair ya will love Horgan. And Weaver of the Greens is the sleeper. An intelligent, affable, likable, folksy type of guy, I suspect that he will make an impact at the 2017 leader's debate with some vote migration thereafter.

Again, the BC NDP has never won a BC election without a viable right-wing party splitting the vote. The BC Cons are now mired in internal lawsuits, a huge debt load, and are leaderless. Basically they have gone fringe since 2013. Basically they are now dead.

And based upon the campaign platforms already leaked, slogans, as well as campaign narratives... it's not that hard looking forward how this will all play out.

I have already postulated the likely BC election outcome in 2017 and I very comfortably stand behind same.

[WarrenC12]

All it takes is one scandal to bring down a government. The Liberals have dodged many in the past (BC Rail, HST, Liquored up Gordo, leader resigning).

The foreigner/real estate story is becoming a province-wide issue. The optics of this "stipend" story is ridiculous. Triple deleting emails? There's plenty to be angry about. The NDP just needs to get their act together. Eby is doing a good job so far.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

All it takes is one scandal to bring down a government. The Liberals have dodged many in the past (BC Rail, HST, Liquored up Gordo, leader resigning).

The foreigner/real estate story is becoming a province-wide issue. The optics of this "stipend" story is ridiculous. Triple deleting emails? There's plenty to be angry about. The NDP just needs to get their act together. Eby is doing a good job so far.

Haha. "Liquored up Gordo". Good one. And a funny one. After the charges were made public and Gordo's public apology, BC Liberal support shot up by ~5% in a CATI poll by Mustel compared to its previous sounding. Bizarre.

Now look at your BC political history:

1. Back in the late 1950's, Socred Robert Sommers was the then BC Forest minister. Sommers was charged/convicted of bribery and conspiracy in connection with his office and imprisoned. In the subsequent 1960 BC election? His riding of Rossland-Trail re-elected another Socred in the 1960 general with an increase in popular vote share.

2. Subsequent to the 1979 BC election, the Socreds were embroiled in a major scandal known as the "Dirty Tricks" affair involving interference in redrawing of electoral boundaries ("Gracie's Finger"), fake letter's to the editor, and on and on it went. Received major media coverage. Heading into the May, 1983 election, the NDP was wayyyy ahead in the polls. So what happened? Then NDP leader Barrett fumbled a major economic/fiscal issue (6% + 5%) that resulted in a larger Socred gov't majority.

3. Subsequent to the 1986 election, Vander Zalm was embroiled with major controversies - he was a so-con championing the closing of abortion clinics. More importantly, he used his premier position to sell his Fantasy Gardens to a Taiwanese bizman, which also involved $10,000 in cash in a vanilla envelope. Terrible optics. Killed the Socreds.

4. Subsequent to the 1991 BC election, the BC NDP was embroiled int Nanamio Bingogate scandal involving funneling a huge amount of money designated for charity into BC NDP party coffers. Resulted in criminal charges/convictions. BC NDP barely re-elected in subsequent 1996 election.

As long-time BC poli media guy Keith Baldrey wrote after the 2013 election... BC voters have become relatively immune to "scandals" when casting their ballot.

As for this BC Liberal leader's stipend (ongoing for 23 years and always disclosed in personal financial filings) akin to the Saskatchewan Party leader's stipend? Some obviously see smoke here. I just haven't spotted any fire. And yep, I also ain't the conspiratorial type.

[WarrenC12]

Gordo's boozing would have been an entirely different story if he was weaving down West Broadway. Being in Hawaii has it's privileges.



Photo: Globe and Mail

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Haha. "Liquored up Gordo". Good one. And a funny one. After the charges were made public and Gordo's public apology, BC Liberal support shot up by ~5% in a CATI poll by Mustel compared to its previous sounding. Bizarre.

Now look at your BC political history:

1. Back in the late 1950's, Socred Robert Sommers was the then BC Forest minister. Sommers was charged/convicted of bribery and conspiracy in connection with his office and imprisoned. In the subsequent 1960 BC election? His riding of Rossland-Trail re-elected another Socred in the 1960 general with an increase in popular vote share.

2. Subsequent to the 1979 BC election, the Socreds were embroiled in a major scandal known as the "Dirty Tricks" affair involving interference in redrawing of electoral boundaries ("Gracie's Finger"), fake letter's to the editor, and on and on it went. Received major media coverage. Heading into the May, 1983 election, the NDP was wayyyy ahead in the polls. So what happened? Then NDP leader Barrett fumbled a major economic/fiscal issue (6% + 5%) that resulted in a larger Socred gov't majority.

3. Subsequent to the 1986 election, Vander Zalm was embroiled with major controversies - he was a so-con championing the closing of abortion clinics. More importantly, he used his premier position to sell his Fantasy Gardens to a Taiwanese bizman, which also involved $10,000 in cash in a vanilla envelope. Terrible optics. Killed the Socreds.

4. Subsequent to the 1991 BC election, the BC NDP was embroiled int Nanamio Bingogate scandal involving funneling a huge amount of money designated for charity into BC NDP party coffers. Resulted in criminal charges/convictions. BC NDP barely re-elected in subsequent 1996 election.

As long-time BC poli media guy Keith Baldrey wrote after the 2013 election... BC voters have become relatively immune to "scandals" when casting their ballot.

As for this BC Liberal leader's stipend (ongoing for 23 years and always disclosed in personal financial filings) akin to the Saskatchewan Party leader's stipend? Some obviously see smoke here. I just haven't spotted any fire. And yep, I also ain't the conspiratorial type.

To be fair, you seem to have lots of information about the past, which is great, but I seem to remember you being the one who kept posting ad nauseam in the Canada section's election thread about how wrong the polls were in BC and that the Conservatives would win the province handily. Not only did that not happen, but there was no greater implosion in Conservative Party of Canada support than in BC. That's not a missed prediction, that is a fundamental misunderstanding of what was happening. The loss was not surprising either if you were keeping track of the popular opinion on the ground.

I am not saying that you don't know what you are talking about. I just think that you like to overstate the legitimacy of your predictions, when the track record may not be so good. I doubt that this is an error in the facts that you use, but more an error in your ability to read populist sentiment, or perhaps an overstatement about historical precedent in a province that little resembles what it once was, demographically and economically, in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Or perhaps it is due to an attitudinal pre-disposition to inflate the support of right leaning parties through cherry-picked or spun data.

Let me guess, in the last civic election your prediction was that LaPointe was going to win?