Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

The Chinese investors have discovered Hamilton. Just as Toronto's creative class flees Toronto for cheaper apartments and homes in the Hammer.

Once we have HSR, maybe the creatives can come to Kitchener instead! The only issue I can see with foreign money here is/would be people paying too much for Waterloo condos to house their kids attending UofW.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The market in K-W has perked up this year after a fairly quiet 2015. The median for SFH is about $355,000.

If anyone is interested, I've always loved this 1880s beauty that's just come on the market - completely restored/renovated (won a heritage award), five bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 3200 sq ft on 50X119ft lot in Downtown Kitchener. Asking $699,000! If I weren't moving to Ottawa, I'd be seriously considering it, although it's much more house than I need.

You're moving to Ottawa???

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

You're moving to Ottawa???

Back to Ottawa. I have a home there.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Once we have HSR, maybe the creatives can come to Kitchener instead! The only issue I can see with foreign money here is/would be people paying too much for Waterloo condos to house their kids attending UofW.

At this rate, people will have to go to northern Ontario to flee the foreign money soon...

[urbandreamer]

You can still buy cheap homes in Niagara Region. Or any small town between Stratford and Windsor.

[ssiguy]

Another example of our truly impartial media in Vancouver.

The weekend Sun has a story whether Millenials are fleeing the city. Of course the article asserts it's just hyperbole. Who id they site and interview for their information? A representative from the BC real Estate Association...............you couldn't make this stuff up.

That's like going to a dealership and asking if it's a good time to buy a car and expecting an honest answer.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

An acre residential lot in Downtown Kitchener would be a rarity. It is a bit to close to the big (also beautiful) craftsman beside it, but the stretch that this house is on is miles from "cookie cutter suburbia". The area is full of century homes, many now renovated. There were also many of the mansions of local old money, although most of them have long since been torn down (!) to make way for the Civic District, among other things. Actually, when I think of the homes across the street (long gone and the land still empty), they would probably have been on lots of an acres or more.

I guess what surprises me most is the asking price of $699,000. Unless there is a big problem with the structure, that seems very, very low for that house, at least to me. You could easily pay more for a large house with far less character out in what are indeed the "cookie cutter suburbs" of K-W.

Perhaps it was a poor choice of words on my part. What im trying to say is that having homes right up next to you and a small lot size makes a property uninspired for me. I prefer the two extremes of either a cheap condo in a downtown area or large acreage with character home, from both a personal taste and investment point of view.

[SpongeG]

my friend and his partner bought a house in Calgary in 2014 at over 700,000, they listed it a few months ago in the 500,000's and have had 1 viewing and it's now reduced to mid 400,000's - yikes, the realtor told them to expect it to sit 12 or months before selling

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Another example of our truly impartial media in Vancouver.

The weekend Sun has a story whether Millenials are fleeing the city. Of course the article asserts it's just hyperbole. Who id they site and interview for their information? A representative from the BC real Estate Association...............you couldn't make this stuff up.

That's like going to a dealership and asking if it's a good time to buy a car and expecting an honest answer.

Article is right, many people here talk about moving, few ever do. Hell i've met more people moving here than away in the past year.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

my friend and his partner bought a house in Calgary in 2014 at over 700,000, they listed it a few months ago in the 500,000's and have had 1 viewing and it's now reduced to mid 400,000's - yikes, the realtor told them to expect it to sit 12 or months before selling

Thats heartbreaking. Is that typical of the market right now?

[Pinion]

.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

my friend and his partner bought a house in Calgary in 2014 at over 700,000, they listed it a few months ago in the 500,000's and have had 1 viewing and it's now reduced to mid 400,000's - yikes, the realtor told them to expect it to sit 12 or months before selling

If they could wait 12 months, I'd assume that they'd have the property off the market already. In any event, the chances seem fairly high that prices in Calgary will be lower in 12 months time than they are now. I must say, that's the first I've heard of a house in Calgary dropping that much already!

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

You can still buy cheap homes in Niagara Region. Or any small town between Stratford and Windsor.

Yeah. But then you have to live there!

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Yeah. But then you have to live there!

Stratford, Woodstock, London? I can think of far worse fates! Now Welland, that's another story....

[lio45]

$700k seems expensive to me, but if you say it's cheap for Kitchener you are the one who probably knows best.

Why the three hydro meters? I'm guessing the place used to be multifamily, either a 3-plex or then a 2-plex with a basement service meter.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

If they could wait 12 months, I'd assume that they'd have the property off the market already. In any event, the chances seem fairly high that prices in Calgary will be lower in 12 months time than they are now. I must say, that's the first I've heard of a house in Calgary dropping that much already!

I wonder if the market there is in a "Wile E. Coyote" phase where sellers are trying to wait for an end to the downturn that won't arrive in time to save them. In such a situation the volume of transactions drops precipitously but the average sale price doesn't go down much. Eventually some do sell though (relocation, bankruptcy, inheritance nobody wants) and they have to accept much lower prices.

I read an interesting description of the insider perspective of the burst tech bubble of ~2000. One of the memorable quotes was about how a lot of people thought the average time to get new consulting work or funding was increasing by about 1 day per day (I think this preceded the stock market crash). In other words, from inside it felt like things were slowly getting tougher but in reality the market had completely seized up.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by someone123

I wonder how if the market there is in a "Wile E. Coyote" phase where sellers are trying to wait out the downturn but we're nowhere near the floor.

I read an interesting description of the way the collapse of the tech bubble around 2000 was perceived by insiders; one of the memorable quotes was about how a lot of people thought the average time to get new consulting work or funding was increasing by about 1 day per day (I think this preceded the stock market crash). In other words, from inside it felt like things were slowly getting tougher but in reality the market had completely seized up.

I suspect that is the case in Calgary, as I understand that to be the norm - sellers are always going to resist selling for much less than they think the property is worth, if they have any choice in the matter. I think I've read somewhere that that time lag for falling prices to catch up with market reality is about a year.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Stratford, Woodstock, London? I can think of far worse fates! Now Welland, that's another story....

He said "between" Stratford and Windsor. I wouldn't consider London a small town. And even so, London isn't all that cheap anyway. Any charming Victorian spread on a charming Victorian street is going to be at least $500k or $600, if not a lot more.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Singl...ELLMUTH-Avenue-LONDON-Ontario-N6A3T6#v=d

Granted, that's way cheaper than the pricey boys on the block, but still, it's not exactly cheap cheap. You can't find old stock housing for a (reasonable) song anymore.

My wife and I have fantasized about the cheaper real estate in other places, but we also know, erm, "refugees" who've escaped from those smaller towns. Including Woodstock, by the way. Woodstock has some spectacular streets attesting to its 19th century wealth...

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.1327447,-...DdZMDumCPwgUz4E8Afp-A!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

...but otherwise it's a utilitarian burg devoid of the eccentric, artsy and intellectual flourishes that make its similarly-sized cousin to the north so unique and appealing (that being Stratford, where we are--Woodstock was not on the radar when casting around for places to move away from the greater GTA to, and for good reason).

[SignalHillHiker]

Just browsing around Woodstock and Stratford on Streetview.

That downtown block along York is lovely, both sides. Exactly the type of core planning I love.

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

If they could wait 12 months, I'd assume that they'd have the property off the market already. In any event, the chances seem fairly high that prices in Calgary will be lower in 12 months time than they are now. I must say, that's the first I've heard of a house in Calgary dropping that much already!

well they broke up and one of them is moving back to asia and the other will move back to Vancouver, ideally they'd like to sell it soon and move on with their lives but they are willing to wait it out if they have to, my friend has been pretty stressed out about the price drops. They sold their place in BC in 2014 at a profit and moved to Alberta to be closer to work.