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  #921  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 7:17 AM
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Originally Posted by cornholio View Post
I am watching intently and I am starting to get the feeling the market is starting to run out of steam. Sales last month hit all time records in (Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Sunshine Coast). Listings are starting to rapidly pick up. The sales numbers cant hold. In fact every extra sale last month in theory is one less sale the next month, or what ever month it carries over to. I have been wrong up to now, and to be fair I think most people have been but paying very close attention I think the tide is starting to turn right now. The next couple months will tell. Either way the damage has been done to this region and I don't think the ending can possibly be a happy one no matter what happens. All possible long term outcomes at this point are bad.

Anyways tomorrow we will have the next interest rate and monetary policy announcement by the bank of Canada. It may signify the end of rate cuts and a hint at rises later this year to match the US. That would mean the beginning of the end of record low interest rates and possibly the start of some de-speculation in the market. But who knows. The whole market is scary irrational right now.

Curious if there will be any surprises tomorrow.
According to Newsweek there are about 4 million millionaires in China, second only to the USA. However, unlike rich Americans, many rich Chinese seem to feel their country is an unstable shithole, best vacated as soon as possible. So if we've only imported about 50,000 of them, there's a long way it could run up if there's no government action.

Basically, if you're thinking of raising a family in Vancouver and aren't well up on the property ladder, best move now, before the locusts reach another Canadian market. All those young tech workers that are happy to share an apartment now will tire of it in a few years, wise up and leave the city.
     
     
  #922  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 9:19 AM
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Regardless if we're in a bubble or not, there's no denying that if the price increases we've experienced these past few years continue at the same rate for the next 5 or so years, the damage will be undeniable.
     
     
  #923  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 1:55 PM
trofirhen trofirhen is offline
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This all bodes ill for the city if it remains so overpriced. The economy will stagnate no doubt, as new companies won't be able to afford the necessary high salaries for housing.
And without economic diversification, what does the city become? A rich playground, with struggling, half-starving middle class types, side by side? Seems unhealthy; "Third World-ish".
     
     
  #924  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 2:08 PM
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Other cities in similar situations are doing okay. Just need the infrastructure for people to move long distances in a short amount of time.
     
     
  #925  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 4:18 PM
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Other cities in similar situations are doing okay. Just need the infrastructure for people to move long distances in a short amount of time.
Yes, perhaps something like this.


http://assets.inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2010/11/Amtrak-High-Speed-Rail-Plans-1.jpg
     
     
  #926  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 4:56 PM
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Do you guys seriously think our government would suddenly ignore the allure of money coming from China? If you are, then you are totally out of touch with reality. Try to focus on the root of the problem, not the result, and painting the Mainland Chinese as "locusts" spreading into Canada will not solve the problem. Vote for a better government that know how to create jobs and revenue for this country without just relying on the fruits of someone else's labour, be it from legit businesses or not. Damn.



B.C. to lead Canadian economic growth in 2016: CIBC

British Columbia is set to lead the country in terms of economic growth in 2016, taking over from...

Nov. 23, 2015, 9:33 a.m.

By Emma Crawford Hampel
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/11/bc-lead-canadian-economic-growth-2016-cibc/

British Columbia is set to lead the country in terms of economic growth in 2016, taking over from Alberta, which is expected to see its economy contract this year and return to slow growth next year.

The economy in B.C. will grow by 2.8% in 2016, according to a CIBC World Markets report released November 23, with Ontario in second place at 2.4%. These rates of growth are well above the anticipated 1.9% growth nationwide.

“Solid growth is in store for the central Canadian and more manufacturing intensive economies of Ontario and Quebec,” said CIBC World Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld.

“But the top spot is reserved for B.C., which has been benefiting the most from overseas investment and from bordering some of the fastest-growing areas of the U.S. economy at present.”

This is not the first report to state B.C. is expected to take top spot across the country in terms of growth in the near future. BMO, the Conference Board of Canada and Central 1 have all put out studies in the past several months with similar findings.

The CIBC report said B.C., along with Prince Edward Island, will see the country’s biggest boosts to tourism due to a lower loonie.

“B.C. and P.E.I. stand as the provinces with largest share of GDP in that potentially winning sector and other provinces could benefit to a lesser extent from decreased cross-border shopping,” Shenfeld said.

Overall, however, Ontario and Quebec will be see the biggest boosts from a lower Canadian dollar. In addition to increased export volumes already experienced today, the report said, new and expanded plants in those provinces will keep manufacturing output high.

Nationwide, CIBC said 2015 is expected to show a modest 1.1% growth, but this will rebound to 1.9% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017.

“Much of the downshift in national GDP has captured the steep retreat in capital spending in mining, oil and gas over the past year, and 2016 could see a less-dramatic but still negative trend in that sector," says Mr. Shenfeld.

The gap between the “have” and “have-not” provinces is narrowing, the study found. Between 2006 and 2014, the real GDP of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador was a full 10% higher than in the rest of the country. This gap has narrowed and will continue to do so.

Alberta’s growth next year will be based on a boost in provincial infrastructure spending.

“But down the road, [Alberta] hopes that a return to energy sector activity arrives in time to counter future fiscal restraint,” Shenfeld said.
     
     
  #927  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 5:45 PM
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I posted this in the Canada section, but it might be of use here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/12/employment-canada-house-prices_n_9670750.html

Notable quotes:

Quote:
“The working age population is growing about 70 per cent faster than the national average in Vancouver and Toronto on the back of strong inflows of highly educated immigrants who can more easily integrate the job market,”
Quote:
Simply put, you can find jobs in many places across Canada, but Toronto and Vancouver are the closest thing there is to a sure thing.
So while I'm sure we all have anecdotal stories of locals moving away (those stories will always exist, Vancouver isn't for everyone) the statistics point to a very different picture.

     
     
  #928  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 5:55 PM
logicbomb logicbomb is offline
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
Do you guys seriously think our government would suddenly ignore the allure of money coming from China? If you are, then you are totally out of touch with reality. Try to focus on the root of the problem, not the result, and painting the Mainland Chinese as "locusts" spreading into Canada will not solve the problem. Vote for a better government that know how to create jobs and revenue for this country without just relying on the fruits of someone else's labour, be it from legit businesses or not. Damn..
Basically, we or any government can't do anything. This is a global issue.

I recently ready an article from 2011 which highlighted the trajectory of 21st Century Colonization. Highlights pretty well what has transpired; people can easily move capital around with little resistance which is not only detrimental to the third world but also major metropolitan cities in the developed world. Despite tougher restrictions and increased border security...we have seen a complete loss in the autonomy of the nation-state (nationalism is dead).

The govenrment is at their mercy because the economy solely depends on the influx of foreign investors for jobs (construction, retail, university/ESL etc..). No government will dare limit impose any caps or restrictions in fear that it might cause the economy to tank.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster View Post
So while I'm sure we all have anecdotal stories of locals moving away (those stories will always exist, Vancouver isn't for everyone) the statistics point to a very different picture.

You have to look at the numbers behind the stats to get the better picture. A lot of jobs that were generated were p/t (45%) and temp f/t (20%) and in hospitality/tourism. Furthermore, BC hired more practical nurses and care-aids after axing many RN's over the past few years.

Last edited by logicbomb; Apr 13, 2016 at 6:07 PM.
     
     
  #929  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2016, 7:53 PM
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From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...for-canadian-homes-with-inquiries-up-134

Quote:
Chinese investors are getting hungrier for real estate in Canada, where foreign demand has fueled record price gains and made million-dollar homes the norm in cities such as Vancouver.
Inquiries for Canadian homes on Juwai.com, a property search engine that lists real estate around the world for Chinese buyers, jumped 134 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the Shanghai-based company. The figure tracks the total number of queries sent to the agent, developer, or seller of a Canadian property listed on the website.....
     
     
  #930  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 4:20 PM
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The stories keep coming, each one nastier and dirtier than the rest.

A Chinese tycoon found butchered last year in his West Vancouver mansion has been linked to a government corruption scandal in southwestern China.

The scandal, which led to a 19-year jail term for Yunnan province official Lin Yunye, is also tied to a Chinese couple who at one time owned an abandoned multimillion-dollar Vancouver home.

Yunye was jailed last November for selling $234 million in state mining assets to a number of businessmen from whom he accepted tens of millions in bribes — including gold bars, luxury watches and rhinoceros horns...

...Meanwhile, back in Vancouver in 2010, Yuan bought a $5-million British Properties home, adding to his numerous B.C. assets including a private island and a vacant $14-million Shaughnessy mansion. The West Vancouver home was purchased in the names of relatives Li Zhao and his wife, Gang Yuan’s cousin, court filings say. Zhao now is charged with Yuan’s slaying, and Yuan’s estate is the subject of a court battle between relatives in China and Vancouver, and his numerous mistresses and illegitimate children...

...Huaican Ren, the other known Vancouver-area tycoon who testified against Yunye, is worth about $400 million, according to Forbes China. Ren reportedly made his fortune in gem trading before founding a number of Yunnan-based real estate and tourism companies, including North Star Enterprise Company Limited.....

...B.C. land title documents say that Ren and his wife bought the Point Grey home for $4.6 million in 2011 through a property transfer executed in a Beijing law office. The previous owner, Chinese investor Wei Min Zhang, flipped the home after buying it for $3.35 million in 2010.

According to MLS documents, Wayne Du was the listing agent for seller Wei Min Zhang in 2011, and George Xia was buyer agent for Huaican Ren. MLS records show the same two realtors involved in the March 3 sale. This time, however, George Xia is the listing agent for Huaican Ren, and Wayne Du is listed as the agent for an unidentified buyer. Legally, Huaican Ren is still owner until a notary or lawyer files transfer documents, B.C. land title office staff said.

B.C. Notary Society counsel Ron Usher — who is a member of the B.C. Real Estate Council panel investigating so-called “shadow flipping” — said he can’t determine the status of the Point Grey home sale.

“We can’t really tell anything from the MLS data,” Usher said. “Has any money changed hands? We don’t know.”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/tyco...hina+bribery+scandal/11850144/story.html

How is it that realty board can't tell the status of the property? If they can't, who can?
     
     
  #931  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 5:08 PM
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^^^ In this story, China successfully cracked down on corrupt state officials. Canada, on the other hand, let the corrupt businessmen in. So much for screening of wealthy immigrants. Even pseudo-state agencies like the Real Estate Board won't do much to check dirty money. Money does talk.
     
     
  #932  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 5:43 PM
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No, the Real Estate Board has nothing to do with the government. It is entirely separate, not created or sanctioned by the government. The Real Estate Council is the government regulatory body.

Anyways, the Real Estate Council shouldn't necessarily be the entity checking dirty money, that is for the financial regulators.
     
     
  #933  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 6:26 PM
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Originally Posted by csbvan View Post
No, the Real Estate Board has nothing to do with the government. It is entirely separate, not created or sanctioned by the government. The Real Estate Council is the government regulatory body.

Anyways, the Real Estate Council shouldn't necessarily be the entity checking dirty money, that is for the financial regulators.
Hence I used the work "pseudo". Pseudo=sham. They are still regulated by the Real Estate Council, a quasi-government agency.
     
     
  #934  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 6:32 PM
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No, it is a very common mistake though!

The Real Estate Council is the professional regulatory body, set up by statute, and who handles discipline and licensing- you HAVE to be licensed by them to be a real estate agent, it's equivalent to the Law Society and is province wide. The Real Estate Boards are separate entities based on different regions in the province, all under the BC Real Estate Association and are entirely private, membership is technically optional but I believe that practically if you want to practice real estate in the different regions you almost have to be a member.

Both discipline, but the only disciplinary penalties that impact your license are those penalties given by the Council.
     
     
  #935  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2016, 9:37 PM
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Originally Posted by csbvan View Post
No, it is a very common mistake though!

The Real Estate Council is the professional regulatory body, set up by statute, and who handles discipline and licensing- you HAVE to be licensed by them to be a real estate agent, it's equivalent to the Law Society and is province wide. The Real Estate Boards are separate entities based on different regions in the province, all under the BC Real Estate Association and are entirely private, membership is technically optional but I believe that practically if you want to practice real estate in the different regions you almost have to be a member.

Both discipline, but the only disciplinary penalties that impact your license are those penalties given by the Council.
Happy?


^^^ In this story, China successfully cracked down on corrupt state officials. Canada, on the other hand, let the corrupt businessmen in. So much for screening of wealthy immigrants. Even pseudo-state agencies like the Real Estate Council won't do much to check dirty money. Money does talk.
     
     
  #936  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2016, 6:42 AM
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A few people made $8m on a property worth $16m through an illegal crowdfunding organization. Another developer learns that it is more profitable to flip properties than develop them by making $43m on that same property. Not too shabby.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/articl...ncouvers-wildest-property-deal-gone-7200

Quote:
It was in fall last year that Bruno and Peter Wall received an offer too good to refuse.

The prominent Vancouver property developers behind Wall Financial Corporation had spent C$16.8 million (HK$102 million) to buy two ageing walk-up apartment blocks on adjacent lots on Nelson Street in 2013. They had big plans for the downtown site: a glittering 60-storey residential skyscraper, taking advantage of the location within the city’s West End Community Plan, where a building could rise 168 metres tall under new zoning. The project was dubbed “Nelson on the Park” and the Walls turned to favourite designer Chris Doray to come up with what they hoped would be a new Vancouver landmark.

But now a consortium of investors was proposing something even more remarkable.
They would pay the Walls C$60million for the site alone, which had just been valued at C$15.6 million by BC Assessment. The huge profit was impossible to resist, and the sale was completed in late January.
Quote:
But Suncom, whose activities are being reviewed by the BC Securities Commission, knew exactly what it was doing.
Because on February 29, one month after taking ownership of the Nelson Street site, the Suncom consortium flipped it, corporate records show.
The price was C$68 million. And the Post met the new buyer, a rich Chinese immigrant named Gao Shan, last month.
Unbelievable. People in my office (tech company - apparently we are highly paid) were basically flipping out today. We found a $500k USD penthouse in Medellin, Colombia with 8 bedrooms and 12 balconies in the good/rich part of that city that seemed like a reasonable alternative. The irony of us being foreign investors in such a scenario was not lost on us.
     
     
  #937  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2016, 7:36 AM
trofirhen trofirhen is offline
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Originally Posted by csbvan View Post
No, the Real Estate Board has nothing to do with the government. It is entirely separate, not created or sanctioned by the government. The Real Estate Council is the government regulatory body.

Anyways, the Real Estate Council shouldn't necessarily be the entity checking dirty money, that is for the financial regulators.
So ... are the financial regulators doing their jobs properly, or looking the other way. That's what I'd like to know.
     
     
  #938  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2016, 8:03 AM
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So ... are the financial regulators doing their jobs properly, or looking the other way. That's what I'd like to know.
It is hard to tell.

If you are a multi-millionaire (and apparently from early posts) China is only second to the US in having these and you decide to buy a home in Canada, is it Canadian regulators job to find out how we made that money? If it just appeared out of thin air there is something to investigate.

If it was transferred out of a Chinese bank account then where it comes from is an issue for Chinese officials.

I see a lot of similarities between Vancouver and London or Paris. For a number of people who are well off in the Middle East or Africa they don't trust their home country. Guess what happens, they have second homes in Paris or London. They start to invest in those two cities. It is an exit of capital from a less stable country to a safe haven.

Vancouver is becoming that safe place to invest if you are from China and need to find a place park your money that is safe.
     
     
  #939  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2016, 4:27 PM
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So ... are the financial regulators doing their jobs properly, or looking the other way. That's what I'd like to know.
That's a good question.

It seems that they have identified the problem, but I'm not sure that they are making changes to fix it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nati...ble-to-money-laundering/article29285770/
     
     
  #940  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2016, 5:02 AM
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That's a good question.

It seems that they have identified the problem, but I'm not sure that they are making changes to fix it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nati...ble-to-money-laundering/article29285770/
Honestly, all the article points to is that some agents of doing a bad job of record keeping. They are suppose to "know their clients" by copying down the driver license or passport number of the client onto a form and they either did not do it or don't have the form.

I have to say I shocked there are "12,400 agents " in metro Vancouver. Good that is a lot of people making there living by entering data into MLS software and walking clients through homes. Ok, they probably do a bit more negotiating the deal for you.

Most business transactions are traceable. Company A writes a cheque or wire transfers to company B. Real-estate goes through lawyers with lawyer trust accounts. I would be more concerned with those than the real estate agents.
     
     
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