BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Henbo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

1. Increase the carbon tax - maybe devote some or all to clean transportation
2. Bring back the HST - the public seems to understand it was a mistake to ditch. Promise it in the platform and show the benefits.
3. Some form of daycare subsidy, ideally means-tested - learning from Quebec's experience should be pretty easy
4. Reduce taxes on lower income people through either rebates or further increasing the personal deduction limit
5. Support Site C (clean energy)
6. Support LNG - the same way any business can operate, no extra special treatment, etc.
7. Oppose any oil/bitumen pipeline

As someone who has voted Liberal in the last 2 elections, I'd vote for that.

I agree if the NDP want to win the provincial election they're gonna have to run a lot more to the centre than to the left.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

People can be for and against a universal child care program but that study that if often cited is highly controversial and contested, and while it is often cited by the program's detractors both inside and outside Quebec, it's basically one of the only ones to come to this conclusion.

My kids went through the subsidized CPE system in Quebec for part of their preschool years. I witnessed first-hand how it was generally a good thing for most kids, especially for immigrant kids who often would not have otherwise known French upon their arrival at school in kindergarten, and also for certain kids from the lower socio-economic rungs who may have otherwise arrived in school without even knowing what an alphabet or numbers were.

The positive impact of the CPE system at levelling the playing field when everyone starts school was and is very obvious.

Point taken. I certainly would be interested to see how the Quebec system does in the future, especially with how it deals with more pressures. We could use what works well.

Out of curiosity, is there an urban/rural divide within Quebec on how the system is viewed?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

Point taken. I certainly would be interested to see how the Quebec system does in the future, especially with how it deals with more pressures. We could use what works well.

Out of curiosity, is there an urban/rural divide within Quebec on how the system is viewed?

No, not really at all.

If there is a divide it's mostly generational: older people saying they didn't have this type of program when they had their kids.

To a lesser degree, there is also a divide between people with kids and the childless as well.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Acajack

No, not really at all.

If there is a divide it's mostly generational: older people saying they didn't have this type of program when they had their kids.

Geez, we didn't have modern healthcare either. We should probably cut back spending so much on people over 65...

Originally Posted by Acajack

To a lesser degree, there is also a divide between people with kids and the childless as well.

I can see this for sure. It's shortsighted though, as the long term impacts of having healthier happier children who are all given the same chances will pay off huge.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

In order to have any hope of success I think the BC NDP need to draw a line in the sand on their policy and make some bold moves a part of their plan. Doing the same old thing won't work, and to that end I'd suggest something like:

1. Increase the carbon tax - maybe devote some or all to clean transportation
2. Bring back the HST - the public seems to understand it was a mistake to ditch. Promise it in the platform and show the benefits.
3. Some form of daycare subsidy, ideally means-tested - learning from Quebec's experience should be pretty easy
4. Reduce taxes on lower income people through either rebates or further increasing the personal deduction limit
5. Support Site C (clean energy)
6. Support LNG - the same way any business can operate, no extra special treatment, etc.
7. Oppose any oil/bitumen pipeline

I feel like these are reasonable centre-left proposals that should make complete sense to a party like the BC NDP, and show a different way forward from the Liberals, who many voters are sick of.

I can only think that the radical left still has internal control over party policy. They didn't like James and stabbed her in the back. I don't think Horgan is one of these radicals, but he's not calling the shots. At least that's the way it looks from the outside.

Now that is a party I would support.

This is where the NDP should be, and it baffles me that they cannot see this.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

In order to have any hope of success I think the BC NDP need to draw a line in the sand on their policy and make some bold moves a part of their plan. Doing the same old thing won't work, and to that end I'd suggest something like:

1. Increase the carbon tax - maybe devote some or all to clean transportation
2. Bring back the HST - the public seems to understand it was a mistake to ditch. Promise it in the platform and show the benefits.
3. Some form of daycare subsidy, ideally means-tested - learning from Quebec's experience should be pretty easy
4. Reduce taxes on lower income people through either rebates or further increasing the personal deduction limit
5. Support Site C (clean energy)
6. Support LNG - the same way any business can operate, no extra special treatment, etc.
7. Oppose any oil/bitumen pipeline

I feel like these are reasonable centre-left proposals that should make complete sense to a party like the BC NDP, and show a different way forward from the Liberals, who many voters are sick of.

I can only think that the radical left still has internal control over party policy. They didn't like James and stabbed her in the back. I don't think Horgan is one of these radicals, but he's not calling the shots. At least that's the way it looks from the outside.

If you can't beat them, join them?

Isn't this pretty much a Liberal Lite platform?
1. Liberals did/are increasing the carbon tax, it's just revenue neutral
2. Liberals already introduced HST
3. Liberals did all day kindergarten as well as StrongStart, and the Child Care Subsidy program, success by 6 program, and 13,000 new daycare spaces in the next 8 years
4. Liberals have reduced taxes quite a bit
5. Liberals are building site C
6. Liberals are entirely behind LNG
7. Liberals haven't exactly done a lot to fully support new oil pipelines.

Where is the typical NDP boilerplate of reducing post secondary tuition, increase funding K-12, building new hospitals, deprivatising seniors care, increasing social housing, addressing mental health, BC Ferries?

Without touching on those issues the NDP is basically another Liberal Party. You would have another COPE/Vision situation.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

If you can't beat them, join them?

Isn't this pretty much a Liberal Lite platform?
1. Liberals did/are increasing the carbon tax, it's just revenue neutral
2. Liberals already introduced HST
3. Liberals did all day kindergarten as well as StrongStart, and the Child Care Subsidy program, success by 6 program, and 13,000 new daycare spaces in the next 8 years
4. Liberals have reduced taxes quite a bit
5. Liberals are building site C
6. Liberals are entirely behind LNG
7. Liberals haven't exactly done a lot to fully support new oil pipelines.

Where is the typical NDP boilerplate of reducing post secondary tuition, increase funding K-12, building new hospitals, deprivatising seniors care, increasing social housing, addressing mental health, BC Ferries?

Without touching on those issues the NDP is basically another Liberal Party. You would have another COPE/Vision situation.

1. Nope. Christy has flat out said no increases.
2. They lied on the campaign and were punished for it.
3. Nothing like what the NDP is proposing, which is a mirror of Quebec.
4. Liberals are increasing horribly regressive fees like BC Hydro, ICBC, and of course the MSP.
5. Yes.
6. Yes, but they are talking about it waaaay too much, trying to pin the future hopes of the province on it.
7. Right.

There are plenty of things in that list the Liberals are doing wrong the NDP could capitalize on. They don't have to just be the opposite of the Liberals, which seems to be what they are trying to do. Things like Site C should be on every party's "to do" list.

[paradigm4]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

If you can't beat them, join them?

Isn't this pretty much a Liberal Lite platform?
1. Liberals did/are increasing the carbon tax, it's just revenue neutral
2. Liberals already introduced HST
3. Liberals did all day kindergarten as well as StrongStart, and the Child Care Subsidy program, success by 6 program, and 13,000 new daycare spaces in the next 8 years
4. Liberals have reduced taxes quite a bit
5. Liberals are building site C
6. Liberals are entirely behind LNG
7. Liberals haven't exactly done a lot to fully support new oil pipelines.

Where is the typical NDP boilerplate of reducing post secondary tuition, increase funding K-12, building new hospitals, deprivatising seniors care, increasing social housing, addressing mental health, BC Ferries?

Without touching on those issues the NDP is basically another Liberal Party. You would have another COPE/Vision situation.

I agree. BC doesn't need the Liberal Lite party, which is essentially what many are arguing they should be, including their current leader. There needs to be differentiation between options for voters, otherwise why bother. The NDP needs an aspirational vision for the province and an aggressive policy agenda to match. Without that, they'll fail to inspire the moderate voters, and lose their own base while they're at it.

[Metro-One]

No, the province does need a Liberal Lite party, because the middle ground is the healthiest position for BC.

The NDPs current position is not going to help BC (and the Liberals are not that much better).

I hate this idea that an opposing party must always be against everything the other party proposes, creating a massive divide between options (extremes never work).

Sometimes a good idea is simply a good idea.

And yes, the NDP really are inspiring the moderate voters... to vote Liberal or not at all that is.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Not to mention that they've pissed off their base, too. NDP can't win without the trade union vote.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by paradigm4

I agree. BC doesn't need the Liberal Lite party, which is essentially what many are arguing they should be, including their current leader. There needs to be differentiation between options for voters, otherwise why bother. The NDP needs an aspirational vision for the province and an aggressive policy agenda to match. Without that, they'll fail to inspire the moderate voters, and lose their own base while they're at it.

Paul, have known ya for many years on here. And I certainly agree with a good chunk of your column in the Vancouver Observer from back in November, 2015. Am just gonna post a few snippets therein:

Why isn't Christy Clark facing the fight of her life over triple-deletes?

Paul Hillsdon
Nov 6th, 2015

Premier Christy Clark should be facing the fight of her life. Just one week ago, it was reported that the BC Liberal government routinely disposes of all written records relating to government decisions.
...

So why aren’t the pitchforks out? Why aren’t the winds of change battering down the legislature?

It’s because we don’t have an effective opposition - nor an alternative government in waiting.

Can you even name the leader of the NDP? No?

That’s because he’s been practically non-existent in the media. And even if - John Horgan is his name - was more visible, he lacks the charisma or personal touch that is Clark’s greatest strength. If Justin Trudeau’s victory tells us anything, charisma is powerful and it does win elections.

That’s not to mention the sad reality that the NDP has only ever won three elections in its entire 82 year history as a provincial party.
...
With no effective opposition from either the NDP or the Greens, frustrated British Columbians have been resigned to the sad fact that Christy Clark will easily win the next election and continuing governing long into the future, regardless of how competent she actually is.

The change we want, and that BC desperately needs to advance our economy and build opportunity for all, will simply not come to fruition anytime soon.

It doesn’t have to be this way. There is a way forward. It’s not easy, it’s not fast, and it will take plenty of - dare I say - hope and hard work.

We need a new political party in BC. And this big tent party needs to speak to all British Columbians.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/opinion...acing-fight-her-life-over-triple-deletes

Paul, essentially what ya are sayin' is that a provincial version of the federal Liberal party should be extant here in BC. Correct? Akin to the federal political scene as well as the ON political scene. On that basis... I fully agree. BTW, I would categorize myself as an economic "blue" liberal.

Problem is that provincially, the NDP in western Canada deliberately attempted, and succeeded to destroy the western provincial wings of the Liberal party in BC, SK, and MB over the decades in order to expand their voter pool.

As a matter of fact, Mulcair and the fed NDP was attempting to do just that to the federal Liberals both prior and during the 2015 fed election in order to make future fed elections as strictly fed Con-NDP races. Under that scenario, the Cons would have virtually won every time - akin to here in BC (unless a right-wing splinter party came into existence to split that vote).

Historically in BC, the provincial Liberals have always had ~20% of the popular vote share... mostly urban-based in Van City and surrounding environs as well as Greater Vic. That all ended back in 1972.

Since then, the BC provincial voter has always had to face the "lesser of two evils" option at the ballot box... from their perspective.

Quite frankly, the BC NDP seems to have now both run outta steam politically and gone off on a non-mainstream tangent - they don't know what they stand for anymore these days due to internal cross-political pressures - and they seem to have been hijacked by the inner Van City proper/southern Van Isle anti-resource development, enviro crowd. Very limited appeal politically.

Even after the 2009 BC election, one fed "red" Liberal type supporting the BC NDP wrote an article suggesting a Vision-Vancouver type party to supplant same. Went no where of course. Even similar murmurs after 2013.

In any event, my poli gut/instinct tells me that the BC NDP will suffer its worst defeat in 2017 since 1969 (aside from the 2001 debacle). And therein lays both the political vacuum as well as foundation for the rebirth of a federal Liberal provincial party in BC - call it the Liberal Democrats if ya will.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Not to mention that they've pissed off their base, too. NDP can't win without the trade union vote.

Exactly.

Also forgot to say that we already have a fringe environmental left party to "inspire the moderate voters," its called the Green Party.

We don't need two Green Parties and the Liberals

We need a moderate party that represents the working middle class, which once was the NDP. Not anymore it seems.

[paradigm4]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Paul, essentially what ya are sayin' is that a provincial version of the federal Liberal party should be extant here in BC. Correct? Akin to the federal political scene as well as the ON political scene. On that basis... I fully agree. BTW, I would categorize myself as an economic "blue" liberal

In any event, my poli gut/instinct tells me that the BC NDP will suffer its worst defeat in 2017 since 1969 (aside from the 2001 debacle). And therein lays both the political vacuum as well as foundation for the rebirth of a federal Liberal provincial party in BC - call it the Liberal Democrats if ya will.

Yeah that was the basis for that column, which indeed was quite popular. Unsurprisingly, the NDP seem to have done little to nothing to fill that political space. And this discussion is about more than providing resource jobs to rural BC, although it seems to be simplifying down to that.

I think the key here is that people will need a reason to vote for them, not just because they can't stand Christy, as the reality is that most BCers do like and support her. She has many weaknesses, but they aren't being exploited. And winning will take more than just saying, we have all the same policies, except without Christy, cause that's not enough to mobilize voters.

As for the Greens, many believe they can't win, partially because the party has less history of electoral success, partially because they have less organizational capacity. I wouldn't say their policies are fringe or radical, especially as many are being co-opted by the federal Liberals atm. Green policies have always been popular in BC, so I see nothing wrong with the NDP striking out more ground here. They simply need to bridge the jobs and environment divide.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

No, the province does need a Liberal Lite party, because the middle ground is the healthiest position for BC.

The NDPs current position is not going to help BC (and the Liberals are not that much better).

I hate this idea that an opposing party must always be against everything the other party proposes, creating a massive divide between options (extremes never work).

Sometimes a good idea is simply a good idea.

And yes, the NDP really are inspiring the moderate voters... to vote Liberal or not at all that is.

I'm not saying they should be the party of the Not-Liberals. I'm just saying that the NDP need to be more than 7 talking points that are incredibly similar to the Liberal's talking points.

They don't have to be against the carbon tax, but supporting it shouldn't be a primary focus of their campaign. They can't run on the HST, they already ran a campaign against it (BC didn't remove the HST because the liberals lied, voters voted it down because people in BC hate taxes and have no comprehension of where government gets its funding).

BC is more than just what Vancouverites want (lower taxes, more transit, cheaper electricity). There are other areas of concern across this province that need addressing by the political parties, and that is where the social platform of the NDP comes in, which is at odds of much of that list.

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Exactly.

Also forgot to say that we already have a fringe environmental left party to "inspire the moderate voters," its called the Green Party.

We don't need two Green Parties and the Liberals

We need a moderate party that represents the working middle class, which once was the NDP. Not anymore it seems.

The left-right political spectrum gauges more than just environmental standing. But even then, the NDP have a spotty track record in how they manage natural resources: if exploiting a resource creates union jobs, they have been for it in the past.

The greens and NDP are quite different when it comes to how they would treat the public service. While the greens are all about social justice, properly executed that doesn't mean they would create a larger public service than what the NDP typically creates. Social justice can be achieved through proper legislation and policies, while the NDP seeks to create social redistribution by expanding the public service.

For example, the NDP runs on a populist platform of restoring BC Ferries by de-privatization and reducing fares. This would just increase traffic, both by increasing the number of cars making the crossing, and the number of ferries to carry those cars. That is a lot of pollution. There is no way the Greens would do that.

You might not agree with that platform for the NDP, but that is what they are about, that is their history, and that is what some people out there want. You can't just have 2 parties that teeter totter on what upper-middle class Vancouverite internet nerds want. There is more to the province than that. You don't agree with what the NDP represent (or are supposed to represent), that's why you don't vote for them and other people do.

[WarrenC12]

Guys, I made a sample list as to what I think would make the BC NDP electable. If it reverses some of their earlier positions, so what? The earlier positions were failures.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

For example, the NDP runs on a populist platform of restoring BC Ferries by de-privatization and reducing fares. This would just increase traffic, both by increasing the number of cars making the crossing, and the number of ferries to carry those cars. That is a lot of pollution. There is no way the Greens would do that.

I don't think so. the greens say so on their page.

It is important that people in the Lower Mainland and the interior, northern and eastern British Columbia understand the impact of decisions to increase fares and cut ferry service to coastal British Columbia. The impact is not isolated to the coast, it hurts everyone

It makes sense, as their base is on the island.

The greens are all over the map. Muni greens in Vancouver are against the skytrain extention on broadway.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2...arty-doesnt-support-broadway-subway.html

[whatnext]

I love how Christy Clark is sleepwalking into an electoral beating. On the same day the story breaks about the ridiculous flip on Nelson Street to a Chinese investor syndicate she's quoted as saying foreign investors aren't the problem. She's handing the NDP a stick to beat her with, perfect!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I love how Christy Clark is sleepwalking into an electoral beating. On the same day the story breaks about the ridiculous flip on Nelson Street to a Chinese investor syndicate she's quoted as saying foreign investors aren't the problem. She's handing the NDP a stick to beat her with, perfect!

And yet, what has the NDP said, done, promised if they win?

The foreigners in real estate story has been going on for months. NDP has been silent the whole time, except Eby organizing some sort of "rally" that went nowhere.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I love how Christy Clark is sleepwalking into an electoral beating. On the same day the story breaks about the ridiculous flip on Nelson Street to a Chinese investor syndicate she's quoted as saying foreign investors aren't the problem. She's handing the NDP a stick to beat her with, perfect!

The NDP had a full warehouse of ammunition in 2012 and 2013. Citizens were so damn pissed off at the liberals and the BC NDP ran a passive campaign and flip-flopped on a number of issues and lost the election in spectacular fashion. We are one year to election time and most people don't even know who the NDP leader is. A few people at my workplace still thought it was Adrian Dix.

The Libs are smart here; they will refuse to lay blame to foreign investors. Why would they? Look at their donors, and see the fact that the added demand is driving BC's economy (real estate). That raises the question...would the BC NDP even address it?

Besides, people are beginning to accept it all as an inevitability; outrage is dwindling...and I am willing to bet that the over-inflated real estate market will be a near non-issue come the 2017 election.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

The NDP had a full warehouse of ammunition in 2012 and 2013. Citizens were so damn pissed off at the liberals and the BC NDP ran a passive campaign and flip-flopped on a number of issues and lost the election in spectacular fashion. We are one year to election time and most people don't even know who the NDP leader is. A few people at my workplace still thought it was Adrian Dix.

The Libs are smart here; they will refuse to lay blame to foreign investors. Why would they? Look at their donors, and see the fact that the added demand is driving BC's economy (real estate). That raises the question...would the BC NDP even address it?

Besides, people are beginning to accept it all as an inevitability; outrage is dwindling...and I am willing to bet that the over-inflated real estate market will be a near non-issue come the 2017 election.

IMHO you're calling that wrong: the outrage is just beginning. And it will build as the problem spills over from Richmond and Vancouver. As owners cashing out in those cities bid up properties in South of the Fraser the voters will realize this isn't just a "West Side problem".

Of course the BC Fiberals won't want to upset the applecart for their real estate donors, which will make it all the more easier for the NDP to paint them as tools of the development industry. I realize this might come as a shock to posters on SSP, but developers and realtors are not seen by the public at large in a favourable light. All Horgan has to do is take a page out of Bernie Sanders book and paint Christy & Co as the establishment enriching themselves at everyone else's expense.

You're right that the NDP will be their own worst enemy and Horgan is not the ideal messenger, but they've been handed a strong issue with emotional resonance (what's more important than having a roof over your head?). Whether they can exploit it or not remains to be seen.