Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[lio45]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

Leo, just the fact you replied too me gives you superstar statis! I promise in my life one day I will buy you two beers in either Levi or Quebec city when you are their! One of my best friends lives in Levi when you are home tell me I will get him to buy you a beer on me!

That guy (your good friend) is originally from BC? If so I wonder how he ended up here!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by lio45

That guy (your good friend) is originally from BC? If so I wonder how he ended up here!

My best friend is a man above men like me! He grew up in saguenay!

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

My best friend is a man above men like me! He grew up in saguenay!

You let me know when you are home I will buy you drinks cheers

[ssiguy]

Another report of a Chinese website where listings go up in China BEFORE they hit the local MLS and get a load of it's name................... vanfun.com

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Another report of a Chinese website where listings go up in China BEFORE they hit the local MLS and get a load of it's name................... vanfun.com

Disgusting. And of course when questioned on it, all Christy Clarke can do is try to get a dig in the NDP about "a great leap forward". She's probably mixing up the Leap Manifesto and the disastrous Chinese Great Leap Forward.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-commen...-a-little-war-of-words-on-the-west-coast

She is so beholden to the real estate industry she does nothing as Canadians watch themselves priced out of the housing market.

[sunsetmountainland]

Global uncertainty, the low loonie and Canada’s tempting lifestyle, economy and commerce has made Vancouver and Toronto increasingly attractive to foreign commercial real estate investors — particularly those from China and the U.S., according to new research by Colliers International.

Interesting article's to read

http://vancouversun.com/business/commercial-real-estate/commercial-real-estate-for-wed-mar-30

http://business.financialpost.com/person...rices-soaring-at-fastest-pace-since-2008

[dleung]

Bungalow listed at $3.1-million dollars and closed at $4.19-million. New York, London, Vancouver

http://www.cknw.com/2016/04/06/71-year-old-bungalow-in-dunbar-sells-for-1-million-over-asking/



nice view though:

[giallo]

Good lord. When is this going to end?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by giallo

Good lord. When is this going to end?

Things are getting so out of hand that it is going to be one epic mess when it all collapses. The Vancouver market has reached the point where it's basically someone passed out in the car, slumped over the steering wheel with the accelerator mashed down to the floor going 220 km/h down the highway. It won't end well... I just hope the collateral damage doesn't take everyone else down.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by dleung

Bungalow listed at $3.1-million dollars and closed at $4.19-million. New York, London, Vancouver

http://www.cknw.com/2016/04/06/71-year-old-bungalow-in-dunbar-sells-for-1-million-over-asking/

Betting anything this $4.19 million buyer turns out to be Chinese...

That's one major difference with New York and London.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by lio45

Betting anything this $4.19 million buyer turns out to be Chinese...

That's one major difference with New York and London.

Where the buyer would tend to be Saudi or Russian....

[lio45]

In New York the buyer could likely statistically be from anywhere. Could even turn out to be a born and bred American.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by giallo

Good lord. When is this going to end?

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by giallo

Good lord. When is this going to end?

Here's a HuffPost article highlighting the almost laughable results of the Toronto/Vancouver housing markets in 10 years if they keep rising at current rates:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/16/canada-real-estate-projections_n_9648448.html

[esquire]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Here's a HuffPost article highlighting the almost laughable results of the Toronto/Vancouver housing markets in 10 years if they keep rising at current rates:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/16/canada-real-estate-projections_n_9648448.html

But..but...but...New York, London and Vancouver!

[someone123]

Originally Posted by esquire

Things are getting so out of hand that it is going to be one epic mess when it all collapses. The Vancouver market has reached the point where it's basically someone passed out in the car, slumped over the steering wheel with the accelerator mashed down to the floor going 220 km/h down the highway. It won't end well... I just hope the collateral damage doesn't take everyone else down.

What's interesting to me is that there are still a lot of locals thinking that they have to try to get in on the market ASAP before they get priced out forever. Generally speaking the prices are already well outside of what they can afford, so the people who think like this leverage themselves to the hilt. Most of them don't really have any assets outside of the house they live in, and they'd be underwater if property values dropped by even 20%.

Another angle to this is that, as far as I can tell, the high-priced homes on the west side are now so expensive that locals could only afford to buy them for a small fraction of their price. If the stream of foreign buyers dries up for some reason I don't think there are a lot of people who will swoop in a bid those $4.1M bungalows up to $3.8M or whatever. The number of locals who can afford even $1M is pretty low.

It all seems like a pretty fragile situation.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

What's interesting to me is that there are still a lot of locals thinking that they have to try to get in on the market ASAP before they get priced out forever. Generally speaking the prices are already well outside of what they can afford, so the people who think like this leverage themselves to the hilt. Most of them don't really have any assets outside of the house they live in, and they'd be underwater if property values dropped by even 20%.

Another angle to this is that, as far as I can tell, the high-priced homes on the west side are now so expensive that locals could only afford to buy them for a small fraction of their price. If the stream of foreign buyers dries up for some reason I don't think there are a lot of people who will swoop in a bid those $4.1M bungalows up to $3.8M or whatever. The number of locals who can afford even $1M is pretty low.

It all seems like a pretty fragile situation.

I wonder if/when a crash of some kind does occur, what effect it will have on Canadian properties generally. Toronto and Vancouver have such an inflating effect on the whole housing market in Canada--if these two markets undergo a major correction, will their be a contagion effect across the country? How much should property owners in other cities be concerned, I wonder?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by someone123

What's interesting to me is that there are still a lot of locals thinking that they have to try to get in on the market ASAP before they get priced out forever. Generally speaking the prices are already well outside of what they can afford, so the people who think like this leverage themselves to the hilt. Most of them don't really have any assets outside of the house they live in, and they'd be underwater if property values dropped by even 20%.

Another angle to this is that, as far as I can tell, the high-priced homes on the west side are now so expensive that locals could only afford to buy them for a small fraction of their price. If the stream of foreign buyers dries up for some reason I don't think there are a lot of people who will swoop in a bid those $4.1M bungalows up to $3.8M or whatever. The number of locals who can afford even $1M is pretty low.

It all seems like a pretty fragile situation.

Now that you mention it, I wonder if the local buyers might serve as a bit of a cushion when things start to collapse? Considering what the numbers are these days, a crash back to the $750,000 single family houses of 15 or so years ago might actually encourage local buyers to step up and buy at what would surely seem like bargain basement prices? That's one thing that US housing crash epicentres like Phoenix or Miami didn't have: a large pool of willing local buyers with reasonable access to credit.

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I wonder if/when a crash of some kind does occur, what effect it will have on Canadian properties generally. Toronto and Vancouver have such an inflating effect on the whole housing market in Canada--if these two markets undergo a major correction, will their be a contagion effect across the country? How much should property owners in other cities be concerned, I wonder?

There would have to be a major effect, seeing that Toronto and Vancouver had such a major role in pushing prices up... for instance, I doubt typical simple suburban 70s bungalows in Winnipeg would have gone from $100,000 to $250,000 over the span of not even 15 years if it weren't for the crazy increases in Toronto, Vancouver and to a lesser extent perhaps, Alberta.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

There would have to be a major effect, seeing that Toronto and Vancouver had such a major role in pushing prices up... for instance, I doubt typical simple suburban 70s bungalows in Winnipeg would have gone from $100,000 to $250,000 over the span of not even 15 years if it weren't for the crazy increases in Toronto, Vancouver and to a lesser extent perhaps, Alberta.

Most of that increase since the early 2000s in what I'd call "normal Canadian markets" is due to the interest rates being a fraction of what they used to be 15 years ago.

I suspect that Winnipeggers are paying approximately the same monthly out-of-wallet costs to buy these '70s suburban bungalows as they did 15 years ago.