YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Ah, there is much more A330 action than I knew! I do sometimes wonder about the Air Transat and Edelweiss flights though, if they are for real or just a myth. I have never seen either airline at YVR. They must be flying on some odd hours or departing from some strange gates, as I am always on a lookout for some new plane tails and still have never seen one.

I think you guys worry about the premium seats too much. Almost none of us enjoys the luxury of flying Business not to mention First frequently, so why does it matter so much. I doubt YVR's success depends on the number of premium seats and if the airlines see better investment in lower product, who are we to judge them? They are choosing to fly the product that is most profitable for them. I doubt the demand for premium seats depends on their availability, but the opposite is crucial.

Anyways, just my 2c. Like said, I like seeing different planes and airlines, so more the mix the better. Also, Economy Class has normally more leg room in other plane types than 777 or 787, so it is good to have those planes as an option as well.

I wish I'd seen this before I just posted. But you are spot on about Premium seating on YVR flights. Despite YVR being down the list on premium traffic numbers, it's still larger than most people realise. But, it still is nowhere near as big as LAX, NYC, YYZ, SFO etc... YVR is very successful on many routes despite the lower premium demand. Look at all the new flights/airlines giving YVR love.

As for Transat - during the winter, flights are operated on sun routes (except LGW) so the flights tend to land late at night and depart early mornings. However, just wait about a month or two when the summer season kicks in and you will see them more frequently during the day when the European season kicks in. TS will be flying more A330s to Europe this summer compared to last as well.

As for Edelweiss - 3 times per week summer seasonal starting soon as well. So have a look out for them!

[LeftCoaster]

So hidden in this mess of YVRs new website stats page is how good these numbers could really be.

If we assume it is 1.6 million flat, which it could be lower or higher, that indicates a growth rate of 11.3%, and that is the middle assumption. At a bare minimum it is 7.48% and could go as high as 14.4%.

3.6% of the increase is due to the extra day in this leap year, but even with a 3.6% reduction, all but the lowest estimates look like a great month.

Originally Posted by Klazu

I think you guys worry too much about the premium seats. Almost none of us enjoys the luxury of flying Business, not to mention First frequently, so why does it matter so much? I doubt YVR's success depends on the number of premium seats and if the airlines see better investment in lower product, who are we to judge them? They are choosing to fly the product that is most profitable for them. I doubt the demand for premium seats depends on their availability, but the opposite is true and an important factor.

I don't care about the premium seats because I fly them a lot, I look at them because I think it indicates the strength of a route better than economy flying. If a route is heavy premium, like a lot of YVR-Asia seem to be, airlines are likely making better yields off it and are more likely to keep it during tough times and more likely to upgrade it/send nicer planes etc...

[Johnny Aussie]

I love my stats and I love the Australian BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transportation and Regional Economics). Each month they publish a separate document on the Australian domestic market and one on the international market. So much juicy information is included in these monthly reports.

Here is January 2016 report just released.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_1601.pdf

Looking at Canada traffic:

AC flew 3,022 fewer pax in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 (was a daily 77W in 2015 vs 77L in 2016)
QF flew 3,490 more pax (a 99.9% increase on 83.3% more flights in Jan 2016)
AC had a LF of 83.4% (82.9% in 2015)
QF had a LF of 89.5% (84.4% in 2015) - note this LF is much higher than their USA services
YVR pax grew from 17,943 to 19,298 (AC and QF)
YYZ pax decreased from 3,470 to 2,583 (AC only)

Both airlines filling more seats in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 but QF seems to be filling more. As we can see they are increasing their flying again this year and into next winter. And of course BNE on AC kicking off in just a couple of months.

[Johnny Aussie]

AC just updated summer schedules and they are upgauging:

NRT from a 788 to a 77W
ICN from a 788 to a 789

So that means there will be nothing smaller than a 789 flying from YVR to Asia this summer on AC and BNE will be AC's only international 788 flight now this summer.... Well and EWR too of course.

Daily 77Ws to NRT, PVG, PEK and HKG. Daily 789 to ICN.

NRT is a huge boost in capacity. It will be on the 400 seater with the config with 40J seats.

Overall Asia/Pacific on AC from YVR is now a HUGE increase in seats compared to last summer.

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I love my stats and I love the Australian BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transportation and Regional Economics). Each month they publish a separate document on the Australian domestic market and one on the international market. So much juicy information is included in these monthly reports.

Here is January 2016 report just released.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_1601.pdf

Looking at Canada traffic:

AC flew 3,022 fewer pax in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 (was a daily 77W in 2015 vs 77L in 2016)
QF flew 3,490 more pax (a 99.9% increase on 83.3% more flights in Jan 2016)
AC had a LF of 83.4% (82.9% in 2015)
QF had a LF of 89.5% (84.4% in 2015) - note this LF is much higher than their USA services
YVR pax grew from 17,943 to 19,298 (AC and QF)
YYZ pax decreased from 3,470 to 2,583 (AC only)

Both airlines filling more seats in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 but QF seems to be filling more. As we can see they are increasing their flying again this year and into next winter. And of course BNE on AC kicking off in just a couple of months.

Johnny, I haven't seen anything from QF about their plans for YVR this year. Are they doing seasonal summer and winter flights again this year?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

Johnny, I haven't seen anything from QF about their plans for YVR this year. Are they doing seasonal summer and winter flights again this year?

I'd love to see QF back year-round. I wonder if that'll ever happen?

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

AC just updated summer schedules and they are upgauging:

NRT from a 788 to a 77W
ICN from a 788 to a 789

AC is trying to route many of their Asia traffic from places like TPE and SIN through NRT or ICN through codesharing with BR and SQ. I thought that was mainly to help their YYZ-ICN (new) and YYZ-NRT (seasonal) route. Maybe this result in high demand for both routes from YVR?

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I love my stats and I love the Australian BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transportation and Regional Economics). Each month they publish a separate document on the Australian domestic market and one on the international market. So much juicy information is included in these monthly reports.

Here is January 2016 report just released.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_1601.pdf

Looking at Canada traffic:

AC flew 3,022 fewer pax in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 (was a daily 77W in 2015 vs 77L in 2016)
QF flew 3,490 more pax (a 99.9% increase on 83.3% more flights in Jan 2016)
AC had a LF of 83.4% (82.9% in 2015)
QF had a LF of 89.5% (84.4% in 2015) - note this LF is much higher than their USA services
YVR pax grew from 17,943 to 19,298 (AC and QF)
YYZ pax decreased from 3,470 to 2,583 (AC only)

Both airlines filling more seats in Jan 2016 vs Jan 2015 but QF seems to be filling more. As we can see they are increasing their flying again this year and into next winter. And of course BNE on AC kicking off in just a couple of months.

Given QFs high and growing LF and the pretty open bilateral between the two countries I'm surprised we haven't seen any increase on the SYD-YVR route. Qantas isn't lacking the metal to fly it are they? Given the licking they seem to be taking on the kangaroo route they should have plenty of reason to siphon a plane off the push SYD to daily.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

AC just updated summer schedules and they are upgauging:

NRT from a 788 to a 77W
ICN from a 788 to a 789

So that means there will be nothing smaller than a 789 flying from YVR to Asia this summer on AC and BNE will be AC's only international 788 flight now this summer.... Well and EWR too of course.

Daily 77Ws to NRT, PVG, PEK and HKG. Daily 789 to ICN.

NRT is a huge boost in capacity. It will be on the 400 seater with the config with 40J seats.

Overall Asia/Pacific on AC from YVR is now a HUGE increase in seats compared to last summer.

That's a monster pop on NRT, AC is really concentrating their western growth in YVR. I'm guessing their next move would be CAN? TPE would be an obvious choice too if there were any capacity available.

On the Europe front it will be interesting to see how their YYC flights fare over the next 24 months. They only fly to LHR from YVR so there are a lot of unserved destinations they've been happy to leave to their competition or alliance partners. If YYC loads drop (so far they've stayed strong) I wouldn't be shocked to see them move YYC-FRA to YVR-FRA.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

Johnny, I haven't seen anything from QF about their plans for YVR this year. Are they doing seasonal summer and winter flights again this year?

Yes and for longer too!

Summer from 30 June to 13 August - starting a bit later but ending much later. So from only 4 weeks to 6 weeks.
Winter from 10 December - 30 January - extended to 7 weeks from 6 last year

Originally Posted by nname

AC is trying to route many of their Asia traffic from places like TPE and SIN through NRT or ICN through codesharing with BR and SQ. I thought that was mainly to help their YYZ-ICN (new) and YYZ-NRT (seasonal) route. Maybe this result in high demand for both routes from YVR?

And PVG. Each Asia/Pacific route will see more seats compared to last year except HKG will be the same.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Given QFs high and growing LF and the pretty open bilateral between the two countries I'm surprised we haven't seen any increase on the SYD-YVR route. Qantas isn't lacking the metal to fly it are they? Given the licking they seem to be taking on the kangaroo route they should have plenty of reason to siphon a plane off the push SYD to daily.

That's a monster pop on NRT, AC is really concentrating their western growth in YVR. I'm guessing their next move would be CAN? TPE would be an obvious choice too if there were any capacity available.

On the Europe front it will be interesting to see how their YYC flights fare over the next 24 months. They only fly to LHR from YVR so there are a lot of unserved destinations they've been happy to leave to their competition or alliance partners. If YYC loads drop (so far they've stayed strong) I wouldn't be shocked to see them move YYC-FRA to YVR-FRA.

QF is increasing the periods of flying - see above. Their problem is a suitable aircraft to make the route viable year round. Their 744s and 388s are just too big. Just wait until they get their 787-900s....

I can see CAN and/or TPE, plus NGO on rouge. Again, looking at AC's investor day growth potential map gives some clues. At least AC will be code sharing on BR to TPE again.

FRA is indeed on AC's YVR potential route list. I highly doubt they would drop YYC though. LH will eventually have to replace the 744 on YVR-FRA. The don't have any more 748s or 388s coming which would be too premium heavy for YVR anyway. A scenario I see would be YVR-FRA and YVR-MUC both become A350-900 routes. The drop in capacity on FRA would be replaced with AC's own metal on a 788 for example. Overall capacity would increase on the Germany routes.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

That's a monster pop on NRT, AC is really concentrating their western growth in YVR. I'm guessing their next move would be CAN? TPE would be an obvious choice too if there were any capacity available.

I'm not sure about if AC wants to fly to CAN. Seems like their plan for YVR-CAN pretty much shelved after CZ start flying the route. Instead they planned YYZ-CAN, but now CZ is planning to start the route this summer...

I would think SZX maybe a better choice for them - it is a Star Alliance hub (CAN is a SkyTeam hub). There is already a strong domestic and short-haul international network by Shenzhen Airlines, and Air China is currently aggressively expanding long-haul routes from there. There is currently no direct competition, plus they can take some of the unserved HKG demand when the HD flight gets full...

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I can see CAN and/or TPE, plus NGO on rouge. Again, looking at AC's investor day growth potential map gives some clues. At least AC will be code sharing on BR to TPE again.

Well sort of. They only codeshare BR with TPE-ICN and TPE-NRT to feed onto their network there.

The potential route on investor day map shows for the Asia side:
YVR-TPE
YVR-SIN
YVR-NGO (rouge?)
YVR-CTS (rouge?)
YYC-PEK (started by HU)
YYZ-CAN (started by CZ)
YYZ-TPE
YYZ-BKK
YYZ-DEL (started)
YYZ-BOM
YYZ-DXB (started)
YUL-PVG

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And PVG. Each Asia/Pacific route will see more seats compared to last year except HKG will be the same.

I remember reading somewhere that the Canada - Hkong Kong bilateral limits the frequency to 14x weekly on Canada side? If that's the case, a 777HD is the most they can put on YVR-HKG, unless they want to either drop the YYZ route or get some A380HD

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I'm not sure about if AC wants to fly to CAN. Seems like their plan for YVR-CAN pretty much shelved after CZ start flying the route. Instead they planned YYZ-CAN, but now CZ is planning to start the route this summer...

I would think SZX maybe a better choice for them - it is a Star Alliance hub (CAN is a SkyTeam hub). There is already a strong domestic and short-haul international network by Shenzhen Airlines, and Air China is currently aggressively expanding long-haul routes from there. There is currently no direct competition, plus they can take some of the unserved HKG demand when the HD flight gets full...

Well sort of. They only codeshare BR with TPE-ICN and TPE-NRT to feed onto their network there.

I'm not sure if CZ CAN-YYZ is going to be approved. The number of allowable frequencies between Canada and China won't currently allow it. Same problem tying up Beijing Capital, Tianjin Airlines and Hainan's YVR applications. After Xiamen to YVR and Hainan to YYC, there are apparently only two frequencies available between Canada and China. However, the next round of talks is scheduled soon so perhaps more access will be granted.

SZX is certainly trying to expand its long haul network. They are planning Aussie services too. Someone mentioned earlier on this thread China Southern was interested in SZX-YVR but that information could never be corroborated with anything else.

And yes, you're right about BR. My mistake. The actual YVR-TPE route won't have AC's flight numbers on it. They should though!

[nname]

I still can't find any info about the capacity limit for Canada-China... 64x weekly seems to be pretty random number

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

QF is increasing the periods of flying - see above. Their problem is a suitable aircraft to make the route viable year round. Their 744s and 388s are just too big. Just wait until they get their 787-900s....

Makes sense the 747 is too big to just throw in on a daily. Couldn't an A330-200 make it until the 787s are delivered though?

When is QF expecting their dreamliners? I took a quick look online and couldn't find a delivery date?

Originally Posted by nname

I'm not sure about if AC wants to fly to CAN. Seems like their plan for YVR-CAN pretty much shelved after CZ start flying the route. Instead they planned YYZ-CAN, but now CZ is planning to start the route this summer...

I would think SZX maybe a better choice for them - it is a Star Alliance hub (CAN is a SkyTeam hub). There is already a strong domestic and short-haul international network by Shenzhen Airlines, and Air China is currently aggressively expanding long-haul routes from there. There is currently no direct competition, plus they can take some of the unserved HKG demand when the HD flight gets full...

Fair enough, I didn't include SZX since it is for the most part still a very domestic focussed airport. If that is intended to change certainly it could be an attractive option for AC.

Who of the Chinese carriers could fly that route? it's one airline per route, but not one airline per destination, so might we see another Air China or China Southern destination?

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I'm not sure if CZ CAN-YYZ is going to be approved. The number of allowable frequencies between Canada and China won't currently allow it. Same problem tying up Beijing Capital, Tianjin Airlines and Hainan's YVR applications. After Xiamen to YVR and Hainan to YYC, there are apparently only two frequencies available between Canada and China. However, the next round of talks is scheduled soon so perhaps more access will be granted.

SZX is certainly trying to expand its long haul network. They are planning Aussie services too. Someone mentioned earlier on this thread China Southern was interested in SZX-YVR but that information could never be corroborated with anything else.

I would be shocked if either government did anything to hamper the air travel growth between the two countries. Any reason you can foresee that the bilateral would not be expanded to accommodate several more years of growth?

[Klazu]

I am surprised that you guys think Air Canada and China Southern would potentially consider start flying between Vancouver and Shenzhen. I mean, Shenzhen is a huge and important city of over 10 million people, but it is very close to both Hong Kong and Guangzhou and well-connected. All those airports even have a direct ferry connection between each other (I am not 100% sure about CAN), which makes it possible to bypass immigration.

So why do you think airlines would be eager to start flying there as well, instead of just adding planes on their current HKG (AC) and CAN (CZ) routes? Or is Shenzhen just strong enough to warrant and support its own direct connection?

It's an interesting city for sure (I was there in February) and it would be cool to have a direct connection to all three major Pearl River Delta megacities. I just want to understand what the benefit to AC and CZ would be? Why is CZ not focusing on building it's own mega hub at CAN?

[nname]

Originally Posted by Klazu

It's an interesting city for sure (I was there in February) and it would be cool to have a direct connection to all three major Pearl River Delta megacities. I just want to understand what the benefit to AC and CZ would be? Why is CZ not focusing on building it's own mega hub at CAN?

CZ - Subsidy. Airlines won't get anything by increase frequency, but new routes from secondary cities will generally get subsidized by local government. This why new low-frequency routes from secondary cities are popping up all over the places. Chinese Airlines will do everything for Subsidy, like how MF choose to do XMN-YVR, FOC-JFK, SZX-SEA instead of flying everything from one hub.

CA - They cannot fly from CAN because the route is taken by CZ. They cannot fly from HKG either. So SZX would be the most logical choice as they already have Shenzhen Airlines (ZH) to feed them from their hub there.

AC - If what I heard is correct about the capacity cap, then they cannot add more frequency to HKG, They cannot upgauge from 777HD either, so to add more capacity to the region they would either team up with CA/ZH at SZX or fight with CZ alone from CAN.

Just a note, long-hual destinations that will have direct flights from all of CAN, SZX, HKG by the end of this year:
SYD, MEL, AKL, LAX

I would think if Auckland could support direct flight from all 3 airports (multiple dailies from 2 of them too), then YVR might be able too...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I still can't find any info about the capacity limit for Canada-China... 64x weekly seems to be pretty random number

64?

CZ CANYVR 7
CA PEKYVR 14 PEKYUL 3 TTL 17
MU PVGYVR 14 PVGYYZ 7 TTL 21
HU PEKYYZ 7 PEKYYC 3 TTL 10
3U SHEYVR 3
MF XMNYVR 3

TTL 61

The problem is the actual frequency limit isn't public info. It's also more complex than just a simple formula of total frequencies. For the sake of argument without getting too complicated it's capped at "roughly" 63 frequencies per week (9 daily) subject to some exceptions. I am not 100% privy to this information anyway so this is all based on my understanding of putting 2 and 2 together. Like I said I can't be 100% certain so I'll be up front and base it on the above assumptions.

After Xiamen's flights and Hainan's to YYC, that leaves 2 weekly frequencies available for any further China-Canada flights on Chinese carriers. The list and number of flights requested at the CAAC greatly exceeds the 2 per week available. That means, based on the current availability, Tianjin, Beijing Capital and Hainan with only 2 per week available may not think it's worth starting any further service until they can maybe get a new service to be 3 per week at a minimum. Who knows!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Makes sense the 747 is too big to just throw in on a daily. Couldn't an A330-200 make it until the 787s are delivered though?

When is QF expecting their dreamliners? I took a quick look online and couldn't find a delivery date.

332 would be just stretching it too far from SYD-YVR.

The new Dreamliners will come online next year!

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-r...-symbolise-new-era-for-national-carrier/

Here's one of the many stories published speculating where they 787-9s will go.

http://www.traveller.com.au/qantas-boein...qantas-has-planned-for-new-planes-gj3tdb

MEL-DFW and SYD-YVR discussed frequently.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

64?

CZ CANYVR 7
CA PEKYVR 14 PEKYUL 3 TTL 17
MU PVGYVR 14 PVGYYZ 7 TTL 21
HU PEKYYZ 7 PEKYYC 3 TTL 10
3U SHEYVR 3
MF XMNYVR 3

TTL 61

4th weekly had been added to PEKYYC later this year, so that makes it 62. So one weekly left?

If there is only 2 weekly, I'm sure Tianjin Airlines will take it. They started their London service with only 2 weekly after all, and planned their Moscow routes with only 1 weekly. They won't have enough planes to run 4 weekly service anyways until late this year or early next year.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

4th weekly had been added to PEKYYC later this year, so that makes it 62. So one weekly left?

If there is only 2 weekly, I'm sure Tianjin Airlines will take it. They started their London service with only 2 weekly after all, and planned their Moscow routes with only 1 weekly. They won't have enough planes to run 4 weekly service anyways until late this year or early next year.

Yeah this is where it starts to get tricky. I think some of the applications were for later in the year anyway. I did a summary of all of the YVR applications but can't find it anymore! Boooo.

Perhaps 2 weekly to London and once weekly to Moscow work for them. To make YVR work, perhaps they want more? Who knows. And yes I forgot about the extra weekly to YYC being added!

But once weekly available just doesn't seem worth it. Will see how the next round of negotiations go.... Help clear the backlog of applications.

[nname]

The thing with China is that, even with 1x weekly, they might get the subsidy from local government AND prevent competitors from starting the route (and in this case, stop competitor from staring any route to Canada). It may not seems worth it for us, but with these factor in, who knows! The entire Hainan group (Tianjin, Beijing Capital, etc) is known for throwing low frequency flights between random airports all over the places

There are so many new routes popping up from China lately, and everything above 2x or 3x weekly seems more and more rare now....