DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[Cirrus]

Englewood's problem is it's too low density. A primarily residential and retail neighborhood would be fine if it were much much denser than Englewood. Offices are a shortcut to urban vitality because a 10-story office building is denser (ie it adds more people) than a 10-story apartment building. But you can achieve the same densities without office and still get good vitality, though not as well-spread throughout the day. That said, it doesn't appear Denver is willing to accept the residential density you'd need for that.

Anyway, for the record, CBRE's Denver office market report tells me the region has "modest positive net absorption," and vacancy rates in Cherry Creek and Colorado Blvd are slightly better than downtown or the regional average. So I'll concede that point, although I will be surprised if it's still true in 10 years.

[TakeFive]

Amazing give and take. While my natural bias is with bunt, I did think he articulated the big picture and all its context/pieces amazingly well.

I do tend to think Cirrus might be right with respect to office unless you're only talking about say Belmar density of office. Hmm, not the best example unless you consider the context of size/density of Belmar. Not sure what their ratio would be but that's more the relationship I'd mean.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

There has got to be an apartment bust coming? No?

Very possibly, even likely but context is everything. "Bust" is too strong a word but certainly excessive vacancy could happen. It would actually be great relief for tenants to have a much looser market.

The more important question is the continued growth of Denver. If it's still pretty good then vacancy versus absorption will even things out soon enough.

[corey]

I believe the four story building at 15th and Market is an addition to the 100+ year old Rocky Mountain Seed Company and not entirely a free standing building.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by corey

I believe the four story building at 15th and Market is an addition to the 100+ year old Rocky Mountain Seed Company and not entirely a free standing building.

Hey I posted this two days ago:

http://denverinfill.com/blog/2016/04/new-lower-downtown-project-1510-market.html

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Very possibly, even likely but context is everything. "Bust" is too strong a word but certainly excessive vacancy could happen. It would actually be great relief for tenants to have a much looser market.

What we're seeing right now, as best I can tell, is not so much that the demand has fallen but that we've hit the upper bound on pricing. Folks are moving a bit farther out of the city to find more affordable rent (like our very own Ryan).. It'll be interesting to see how long these new luxury buildings hold on those higher rents before adjusting downwards a bit to try and capture the folks who seemed to be priced out at this point.

[comoneymaker]

We should know the cycle for major projects in Denver that don't have government funding behind them by now. First comes the amazing rendering and concepts and beauty. Then 6 months after the construction was supposed to start comes the bad news. We Shrunk everything by 50% and took out 100% of the architecture and made it 60% less functional and it won't start for another 2 years. 2 years 6 months later we finished 5% of what we planned and are now backing out but selling the land for a 1bill dollar profit. 3 years later and new developer screws it worse but finishes and a new turd is born.

I just hope Denver isn't the only city that gets this on a regular basis.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by enjo13

What we're seeing right now, as best I can tell, is not so much that the demand has fallen but that we've hit the upper bound on pricing. Folks are moving a bit farther out of the city to find more affordable rent (like our very own Ryan).. It'll be interesting to see how long these new luxury buildings hold on those higher rents before adjusting downwards a bit to try and capture the folks who seemed to be priced out at this point.

Good point, I'm sure that's an aggravating factor. There are also more apartments being built in the suburbs; not a ton but a fair amount.

Downtown there is a lot of higher end type apartments that will complete over the next 12-18 months. There's also a lot of standard "luxury" product being built in RiNo, Uptown and Highlands. Very good chance that the supply gets well ahead of the demand. Then a year from now there will be a construction slowdown, even if modest, as all these new units are completed and most of the RTD/Fastracks lines are also finished.

The unknown is how healthy the absorption will be relative to the excess vacancy? It may not be that big a deal.

[Denver Dweller]

http://glendalecherrycreek.com/2016/03/p...critical-wealthy-rug-merchants-harassed/

[comoneymaker]

Well the thing is old and young everyone wants to live downtown. That is the new FAD. Of course when prices get high you will see people move out to the burbs where they can get a amazing house for what they rented for. The real test of the market is going to be when Cali legalizes pot in November. That should at minimum cause a huge drop in tourism. But with water problems and most of major cities in Cali still being way more expensive than Denver we will likely continue the boom for some time to come. I say in the next 5 years expect to see 20 major towers proposed and at least 5 built and one being a new tallest and without major fallout.

[comoneymaker]

Originally Posted by Denver Dweller

http://glendalecherrycreek.com/2016/03/p...critical-wealthy-rug-merchants-harassed/

I don't even want to waste my time reading that. These Rug arse holes are the equivalent of Trump.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by comoneymaker

I don't even want to waste my time reading that. These Rug arse holes are the equivalent of Trump.

Not sure I understand the comparison but I laughed none-the-less.

But to not read the linked article is to miss the craziest, strangest, most hilarious thing I've read this year.

[comoneymaker]

Is it like the Onion ? lol

[bunt_q]

I'm bored, so I thought I'd posted a photo of a few hundred people who want no part of a road diet to make yet another apartment ghetto just a tad bit nicer. It is backed up from Mississippi, only because of the chokepoint, before and after that everything is fine.

[EngiNerd]

Well to be fair, the on-ramp from NB Santa-Fe to SB I-25 is closed right now. So that throws a whole lot more people who normally would have entered SB I-25 from the Santa-Fe ramp directly now have to jog over onto NB Broadway either on Mississippi or earlier at Iowa so that they can get to SB I-25. But yes, regardless, that area sucks.

[balugajames]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I'm bored, so I thought I'd posted a photo of a few hundred people who want no part of a road diet to make yet another apartment ghetto just a tad bit nicer. It is backed up from Mississippi, only because of the chokepoint, before and after that everything is fine.

Ever person, in every car in that image, could fit on that single bus, with room to spare.

On a second note. It appears core samples are being taken at the lot adjacent to Benedict Fountain park.



Anyone have tidbits on this lot?

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by balugajames

Ever person, in every car in that image, could fit on that single bus, with room to spare.

Anyone have tidbits on this lot?

That's great and all, but unless you're going to ban driving, you'll notice the bus in that photo is also stuck. Fixing bottlenecks in city streets (we are NOT talking wholesale widening) helps transit as much as it helps autos.

[EngiNerd]

Construction mobilization was happening at the old Platte St. Empire Staple building this morning, looks like that one is going to get moving soon.

[RyanD]

Country Club Towers!


These are taking off nicely!

[bunt_q]

Such a cool project. A real monster, though. Thanks for the aerials!