US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[Novacek]

An article that mentions the released numbers for Hays and Williamson (among others)

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/03/24/suburban-population-counties-surge-texas/

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by drummer

This was also posted in the DFW thread:

Whoa, Texas Triangle indeed.

"These four Texas metro areas collectively added about 412,000 people. Texas as a whole gained about 490,000."


Evidence of oil-related growth slowing down in other Texas metros?

[wwmiv]

Extrapolating from this data the current reality means Austin is probably larger than Columbus and similarly sized as Cleveland and Kansas City and, if not yet, marginally larger than them then within the next year. I'd say we pass them at some point in 2017, Cincinnati in 2018, and then Pittsburgh in 2020. Then, beyond them Austin would then have to surpass Vegas, Sacramento and the cities discussed below. So, after surpassing all of those cities, it'll be until the mid-2020s that Austin moves up further, except sporadically (Portland by 2022 or 2023, maybe), but by that point who knows (a) what cities will still be growing, (b) whose growth will have plateaued (will ours?), (c) and how that will affect rankings shifts. So, I really only think in terms of the next 10 years (out until 2027ish), at which point we'll still be behind any of the next larger cities (San Antonio, Orlando, Charlotte) are all growing pretty fast as well.

San Antonio and Orlando are probably already larger than Portland (Orlando is growing faster than San Antonio), but then there's gonna be awhile before they move up in the rankings again because Charlotte is also growing fast (that's the next city up) and then there's a large population gap between them and Baltimore/St. Louis/Denver/Tampa (two of which are still growing, if slower, and two of which are growing fast).

And then do we have to think... what cities could possibly outgrow San Antonio or Austin during this time period? Probably nothing. They have two of the fastest growing populations in the country. Perhaps Vegas could outgrow San Antonio by the mid 2020s, maybe, if they had another sustained period of exceptional growth for a few years and then built off of that for awhile... but nothing is gonna outgrow Austin at all. We're the fastest growing metro over 1 million five years running.

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local/williamson-county-ranked-seventh-fastest-growing-i/nqrcG/

[Jdawgboy]

The census figure still undercuts the number that was released by the city demographic department a couple of months back. I tend to feel that the city has a better handle on local population growth in this case.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

The census figure still undercuts the number that was released by the city demographic department a couple of months back. I tend to feel that the city has a better handle on local population growth in this case.

What was the estimate date for that number the city released though?

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

What was the estimate date for that number the city released though?

November was when I first saw an article about it then KVUEs story in December. When does the census compile figures, around July 1st?

[The ATX]

The city and the census bureau are pretty much in agreement with the MSA population based on the dates of the estimates:

Census: 2,000,860 on 07-01-15

City: 2,050,311 on 04-01-16 (A week into the future!)

http://www.austintexas.gov/demographics

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by The ATX

The city and the census bureau are pretty much in agreement with the MSA population based on the dates of the estimates:

Census: 2,000,860 on 07-01-15

City: 2,050,311 on 04-01-16 (A week into the future!)

http://www.austintexas.gov/demographics

Okay I see what your saying. I keep forgetting to take into account that the number the census releases is between July 1st 2014 to July 1st 2015.

[wwmiv]

The city's estimate is almost identical to what you'd get if you extrapolated out from the estimates since the last census.

[lzppjb]

So that's roughly 5,500 people a month. This time next year, we'll be easily over 2.1 million. That's insane. If this keeps up, I'm going to have to stay on night shift for years so I avoid all the traffic.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Whoa, Texas Triangle indeed.

Haha, I had pretty much the same thought.

So, we have the four major metros growing like crazy. This doesn't even include what I'm assuming is positive growth in Temple/Killeen/Belton area or Waco and its surrounding towns.

Also, does anyone know anything about Bryan/College Station? Huntsville? How's the growth out there? Is Conroe included in the Houston numbers or does it stop at The Woodlands?

[drummer]

Originally Posted by lzppjb

So that's roughly 5,500 people a month. This time next year, we'll be easily over 2.1 million. That's insane. If this keeps up, I'm going to have to stay on night shift for years so I avoid all the traffic.

That's a small Texas Hill Country town per month.

[JoninATX]

I was thinking that with Mable Falls being so close that the Austin area has already hit 2.1 million even though the Austin MSA doesn't include Burnet County. It could be very well our CSA then.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

I was thinking that with Mable Falls being so close that the Austin area has already hit 2.1 million even though the Austin MSA doesn't include Burnet County. It could be very well our CSA then.

We're not in a CSA anymore. The Austin Metro and Burnet Co. were a CSA for about a year or so; then the Census Bureau did away with it for some reason.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by The ATX

We're not in a CSA anymore. The Austin Metro and Burnet Co. were a CSA for about a year or so; then the Census Bureau did away with it for some reason.

Heard that. But for some reason if feels strange not to even have Burnet County in our area anymore, even though it's close by. I know all this has to do with commute patterns and such.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by drummer

Haha, I had pretty much the same thought.

So, we have the four major metros growing like crazy. This doesn't even include what I'm assuming is positive growth in Temple/Killeen/Belton area or Waco and its surrounding towns.

Also, does anyone know anything about Bryan/College Station? Huntsville? How's the growth out there? Is Conroe included in the Houston numbers or does it stop at The Woodlands?

All the metros are now in the database

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2015/index.html

DFW: 144,704
Houston Metro: 159,083
Austin-RR: 57,395
SA Metro: 51,285
Waco Metro: 2,549
Killeen-Temple: 5889
College Station Bryan: 6,237

By my count that puts at least 427k of growth in the triangle, and 262k in the I-35 corridor.

(technically that assumes none of the non-aligned counties in the triangle lost population)

Brenham micro gained 352. Hunstville micro gained 1062. Corsicana gained 289. El Campo (if you count it) also gained 289.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by The ATX

We're not in a CSA anymore. The Austin Metro and Burnet Co. were a CSA for about a year or so; then the Census Bureau did away with it for some reason.

I thought the "Austin-Round Rock-Marble Falls Combined Statistical Area" is CSA area #126 according to the Census Bureau...

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

I thought the "Austin-Round Rock-Marble Falls Combined Statistical Area" is CSA area #126 according to the Census Bureau...

Not in the latest tables. It doesn't exist anymore.

If you load up the CSAs here
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2015/index.html

There's no Austin one.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

I was thinking that with Mable Falls being so close that the Austin area has already hit 2.1 million even though the Austin MSA doesn't include Burnet County. It could be very well our CSA then.

I do wonder if Burnet County would be considered a part sometime in the future - it'd add 45K or so (I can't recall the exact figure). Marble Falls itself has somewhere between 6-7K, but the surrounding areas have several thousand more in small towns. Many folks commute for work, but many work locally. It's not a traditional suburb in that it's largely self-sufficient, but there are many things that folks do go to Austin to buy or do. I do think Marble Falls is the seat of a micro-politan statistical area, but I don't believe it's yet part of the Austin MSA...correct me if I'm wrong.

I read a while back that the Spicewood area (71 corridor especially the Pedernales to Hwy 281) was a place to watch for development over the next 20+ years. It's already showing some signs of development and, with the new regional S&W hospital in Marble Falls at 281/71, it could really begin to explode, adding more population (and demanding better highways for more folks coming into Austin, as surely many from there could/would commute). It'll be interesting to see how things progress.

Another interesting thing with Burnet County is that the majority of the population growth has traditionally been in the southern portion (along the lakes, specifically around Marble Falls). I wonder if this will change as Hwy 29 develops more (Liberty Hill growing towards Betram and Burnet, for instance). I do think Hwy 71 will continue, but with the explosive growth in Williamson County along Hwy 183, would it not be natural to continue West along Hwy 29? It is quicker to get from the Marble Falls/Spicewood area to downtown than, say, Bertram or Burnet, so I wonder if that would affect anything with this line of thinking. Transportation options (even freeways vs. no freeways) would almost definitely affect this as well.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by drummer

I read a while back that the Spicewood area (71 corridor especially the Pedernales to Hwy 281) was a place to watch for development over the next 20+ years. It's already showing some signs of development and, with the new regional S&W hospital in Marble Falls at 281/71, it could really begin to explode, adding more population (and demanding better highways for more folks coming into Austin, as surely many from there could/would commute). It'll be interesting to see how things progress.

What will be especially important in this happening along this corridor is the successful completion of tollway extensions through the Y and express lanes along the 290 and MoPac corridors into downtown.

Originally Posted by drummer

Another interesting thing with Burnet County is that the majority of the population growth has traditionally been in the southern portion (along the lakes, specifically around Marble Falls). I wonder if this will change as Hwy 29 develops more (Liberty Hill growing towards Betram and Burnet, for instance). I do think Hwy 71 will continue, but with the explosive growth in Williamson County along Hwy 183, would it not be natural to continue West along Hwy 29? It is quicker to get from the Marble Falls/Spicewood area to downtown than, say, Bertram or Burnet, so I wonder if that would affect anything with this line of thinking. Transportation options (even freeways vs. no freeways) would almost definitely affect this as well.

Honestly, if we ever get an east-west interstate through Austin, it'll come through on or along US-79 as the pretty solid to happen eventually conceptual spur off of I-14 to the Austin area from College Station. Once that happens (30-40 years from now), the economic impact that that will have in the Round Rock area will almost assuredly guarantee that that area (which I currently think is a bit too far out to get developed any time soon) starts being developed more intensely. However, by then, I think the Marble Falls area will already be in the MSA because its southern areas are connected to Austin about as easily and quickly via 71/290 as the northern areas are to Round Rock via 29, 183, and 45 and much more easily than trying to get into Austin from the northern portions. Ergo, there's comparatively more pull in the southern parts than the northern parts.