Mountain West Microbrew: Chit chat and irrelevancy

[s.p.hansen]

In a Mountain West triumph, little Idaho and slightly bigger Utah beat Arizona in influence and gave Bernie Sanders more delegates at the end of the night. We won him Western Tuesday! Utah saw a massive increase in Democratic voters and Boise had the largest caucus in the United States.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html


In Utah, Donald trump is struggling to stay above 15% on the GOP side of things, driving home the threat that Utah will vote Democrat if he becomes the nominee. A repeat of when we voted for Johnson over Goldwater.

[bunt_q]

So in other words, Utah demonstrates a stunning lack of diversity. White people voting for Bernie in overwhelming numbers, that's not news. His supporters and their narrowminded fervor are almost as bad as Trump's.

Bernie should pull out of the race. I worry about cult-like mass suicide when the millennials wake up and realize he can't win and throw a temper tantrum, having been told no for the first time in their pampered lives.

Don't worry friends, when I win, everything will be FREEEEEEE! Bernie's not even creative with his platform. Hugo Chavez promised a bunch of free 🞵🞵🞵🞵 he couldn't deliver on for decades. Kudos to America that more of us are not 'buying' it.

EDIT: Not to say I wouldn't like my massive student loan debt whisked away. Please, Fairy Godmother, by all means. They're not my fault, some big bad banker foisted them on me! Hard work and patience? Never heard of them.

[s.p.hansen]

Man, Bunt, between this and your rants about legal marijuana...when did you get so old? I feel like I'm watching the first part of the movie Hook. Do we need to take you back to Neverland?

[Cirrus]

Far more interesting than Bernie gaining 4 delegates on Hillary's insurmountable lead is the nugget that Utah Republicans hate Trump so much, the state could actually be in play for Democrats during the general election.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Far more interesting than Bernie gaining 4 delegates on Hillary's insurmountable lead is the nugget that Utah Republicans hate Trump so much, the state could actually be in play for Democrats during the general election.

Yup. This is the big story. Democratic turnout broke 2008 records in Utah which hasn't been the case for the Democraric Pirmary Season so far. All it takes is a high Democratic turnout, 30% of Republicans who normally vote not feeling able to support either Trump or Hillary, and 15% of the Republicans who do make it out to vote, voting against Trump for Hillary. I'm basing this off 2008 numbers and not when Romney ran in 2012, because Romney was our guy. A lot of Utah Democrats voted for Romney. There was a poll in the last few days that says Hillary would win over Trump in Utah by 2% and Sanders by 14% in a general election.

This isn't too surprising though since Trump is the Goldwater of our day and Utah voted for Johnson over Goldwater.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by s.p.hansen

This isn't too surprising though since Trump is the Goldwater of our day and Utah voted for Johnson over Goldwater.

Actually Trump is more like the antithesis of Goldwater. I'd be delighted if Utah were to go blue though; that would be a real hoot.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Actually Trump is more like the antithesis of Goldwater. I'd be delighted if Utah were to go blue though; that would be a real hoot.

He's close enough. He flirted with racism and started the rapprochement with the Solid South. He was such a cook that Utah went blue as did most of the country and thus handed Johnson his super majority where he was able to get his way on everything.

Johnson was a Hawk, so is Clinton. I see the potential for reboot.

[i-215]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Far more interesting than Bernie gaining 4 delegates on Hillary's insurmountable lead is the nugget that Utah Republicans hate Trump so much, the state could actually be in play for Democrats during the general election.

Yep. Voted for Bush in '04. Romney in '12. And I stood in line for 90 minutes on Tuesday to vote for Bernie.

Times a'changin' here in Utah.

[s.p.hansen]

Over 20,000 people registered as a Democrat while in line at the caucuses that night. I just voted for Bernie as a Republican.

[bunt_q]

That's so weird to me. I'm a big fan of closed primaries. Closed caucuses, even better.

It's because I'm ollllllllllllld.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

That's so weird to me. I'm a big fan of closed primaries. Closed caucuses, even better.

It's because I'm ollllllllllllld.

When you're the underdog party open ones make sense. When you're the dominant party like the Republicans in Utah, you don't want plebs watering down the ideology and so you close them and then try to make it so only the Koch Bros agents can go.

Now an open convention (which is actually in reality a closed convention to voters) isn't even that bad either except they're inherently exclusionary towards non whites and women. That's why they were abolished in the Democratic Party. I can't think of a better process to try and solve that hurdle that would be less intrusive than the system they have today with voter primaries and caucuses. The smoke filled room we all think about was mostly old white dudes and some young ones smoking and deciding which one of them we'd get to vote for.

[Sawtooth]

I moved my photo to a better place.

[s.p.hansen]

Hey Bunt. Since the Super Delegate system the candidate who has won the most committed delegates has won the race for the nomination. Bernie just distroyed Clinton's 20% lead in committed delegates last night.


https://m.reddit.com/r/SandersForPreside...gton_just_destroyed_20_of_clintons_lead/


Clinton is out of southern states. Too bad. Not bad for the Democrats since the south doesn't vote for Democrats anyway. Also, on a fun note, apparently Polynesians, Asians, and Native Americans are white now!

[bunt_q]

I have no problem with superdelegates going against the pledged delegate count if the voters elect a crazy.

I will not vote for Bernie. If it's not Hillary, it's probably Trump for me. Tuition should not be free.

And Bernie's pacifist naïveté is far scarier to me than even the most bullish foreign policy we'd be likely to get out of Trump. Trump is obnoxious, but Bernie is dangerous.

This is the thing, if Hillary is the nominee, most folks farther left will still vote for her. But if Bernie is the nominee... it raises serious questions for centrist Democrats. If we view the political spectrum as linear, there are a number of Republicans probably closer to me than Bernie's uncomfortable leftist radicalism on that spectrum. Particularly on foreign policy, which is the most important issue for me in voting for president, because that's where a president can actually deliver.

[bunt_q]

Adding: I also wouldn't put any stock in any poll that claims Bernie can beat Trump. There's no attack left that the GOP hasn't already lobbed at Trump - his negatives are probably as high as they can ever be. Bernie has been completely sheltered (as any good socialist needs to be); Hillary hasn't lobbed the obvious attacks for fear of alienating her own left. But in the general... the ads against Sanders almost write themselves. How does he not get painted as a radical when he is a radical; when he is the most liberal member of congress by far? He cannot survive that, nor should he. His ideas are helpful on the fringe, to affect the conversation. But radicals can't actually be trusted to hold office - he represents a fringe, a loud and influential fringe, but nothing he says gets implemented in today's America. And a Bernie nomination absolutely guarantees a Trump presidency. As it should, bcause while Trump sounds crazy, his actual policies are more mainstream for the country (which isn't urban coastal America and college towns) than Bernie's. Bernie is this generation's Ralph Nader...I guess we all need one to idolize in our times. But those guys don't become president.

[transistor]

Bunt, I want to thank you for your earnest beliefs that education should not be free, denying numerous individuals that want to get an education and better the country the possibility of doing so. It sounds like the bitter musings of someone who didn't get a scholarship to college and wants everyone else to pay as well.

[Scottk]

Bunt, you really think Hillary would be the better nominee? Her unfavorable ratings are through the roof. The right side of this country despises her, and she is viewed negatively amongst almost everybody besides partisan democrats.

Never mind all the baggage she is carrying with the FBI investigating her emails, and the right not shutting up about Benghazi.

We are talking about the Hillary Clinton who supported TPP before she was against it, the Hillary who was against gay marriage before she decided she supported it, the Hillary who in 2011 claimed Bashar Al Assad was a reformer, but is now claiming that he is a "serious threat", the Hillary that supported the Keystone XL pipeline in 2010 but now claims that she is against the Keystone XL pipeline, the Hillary that expressed doubt and concern about arming Syrian rebels in 2012 but now advocates in favor of arming Syrian rebels, the Hillary that voted for the disastrous Iraq war but later opposed it.


I can't help but feel like she is the female version of Frank Underwood. She will say anything to get elected, and if Bernie is not the democratic nominee I will not be voting Democrat. Much of my generation feels this way. There is a reason her unfavorable ratings are so high.

The right will have a field day if she is the nominee. Bernie is the better candidate, and the polls support this. He is more likely to beat Trump or Cruz in the general election.

I understand that many of Bernie's policies are unrealistic, but I feel like he is the only candidate that actually gives a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 about average working class Americans. Hillary is more interested in Goldman Sachs and Wall Street.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Bernie is the only candidate that is seriously talking about anthropogenic global warming. This, IMO, is the most important issue in the upcoming election - more important than foreign policy, because climate change will lead to increased drought, famine, and war around the world (Although I'm sure some SLC forumer will say that there is no such thing as anthropogenic global warming, despite all of the scientific evidence.)

[Scottk]

Originally Posted by transistor

Bunt, I want to thank you for your earnest beliefs that education should not be free, denying numerous individuals that want to get an education and better the country the possibility of doing so. It sounds like the bitter musings of someone who didn't get a scholarship to college and wants everyone else to pay as well.

Right, It's not like most of Europe is an example of the fact that affordable college education is a possibility.

[s.p.hansen]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I will not vote for Bernie. If it's not Hillary, it's probably Trump for me. Tuition should not be free.

And Bernie's pacifist naïveté is far scarier to me than even the most bullish foreign policy we'd be likely to get out of Trump. Trump is obnoxious, but Bernie is dangerous.

This is the thing, if Hillary is the nominee, most folks farther left will still vote for her. But if Bernie is the nominee... it raises serious questions for centrist Democrats. If we view the political spectrum as linear, there are a number of Republicans probably closer to me than Bernie's uncomfortable leftist radicalism on that spectrum. Particularly on foreign policy, which is the most important issue for me in voting for president, because that's where a president can actually deliver.

Bunt, your argument is 🞵🞵🞵🞵. Honestly. You undermine what the president can do to change anything with Trump and say he'd be ok, but then assert that having Bernie in power would allow him every change he wants to make. It's a bad argument. Bernie can change as much as a president can change anything. All the things you're afraid of him doing he wouldn't be able to do with all the Republicans and moderate Democrats in office. The ones who still have their bread buttered by student loan companies, insurance companies, pharmaceuticals and so on. What Bernie can do, and what his number one running platform is, is he can use the full power of the executive branch to move an agenda along for ending Super PACs and reducing lobbying power in government. There is support for this across the aisle and he could do that. He could negotiate lower student loan interest and help with debt forgiveness.

Bernie will never be the hawk you want him to be and he wouldn't have wasted two trillion in the Middle East like Bush and Hillary. Trump isn't hawkish either tho, so good luck with that. When electric cars take off in 2 years and displace enough oil barrels 5 years later we'll be riding supply gluts of oil for decades, managing the decline of oil. The Middle East is fucked either way and it's really not going to be our problem.

America is a consumer economy and it will fail if people can't consume. If younger people are kept out of the consuming world even decades into their adulthood because of college and healthcare your world will fall apart too. The Reagan Era and New Democrats era was useful until about the year 2000. We streamlined a lot of things and got the chokehold of Unions off of the economy. Now it's time to get on board with fixing wage stagnation, unfair trade deals, overpriced healthcare, overpriced education, and switching to renewables. If Bernie doesn't win this election season the need for a Bernie will still be there. This isn't going away because your same solutions from the 80's and mid 90's aren't adapting. This isn't going to be Ralph Nadar. This will be the Ronald Reagan moment of the Democrats. A new voting coalition across the United States.

And the fact that you think Trump is still going to be allowed the nomination by the Republicans shows just how casual your interest in this race is.

[bunt_q]

Wow, you guys are truly deluded. A Ronald Reagan moment for Democrats? Good lord, haha. Can't wait for reality to catch up with you kids. How disappointing it's going to be for all of you when Bernie fails and disappears into the night. One more example of the establishment holding down progress; yet more disillusionment. It couldn't possibly be because the majority of Americans don't actually agree with you and the most liberal member of Congress.

The Republican side will be interesting. But I do think Trump will be their nominee.