Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[gentlepuppies]

Originally Posted by dleung

Anti-demolition protest at a $7.4 million house on Adera St.


https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress....-08.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=940&h=705

I have to say, it's damn near impossible to find a whiter crowd in Vancouver than this, especially in this predominantly-Asian area between Kerrisdale and Marpole, whiter than 4/20, whiter than Mitt Romney in a snowstorm, etc

LMAO. On one hand it's hard to pretend some of the backlash isn't at least partly racial. On the other hand...

$2 million is now the new $1 million



http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2...-increase-in-2-million-dollar-homes.html

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Fine here are building permits for metro Vancouver since 1998. Since 2006 over 37,000 single family dwelling units were constructed, some are rebuilds, the rate is however constant since at least 98. Most are new homes. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Files/71df1...lBuildingPermitsUnitsSingleDwellings.csv

Also next time read the methodology section I linked to.

Link to the rest of building permit stats. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Economy/BuildingPermitsHousingStartsandSales.aspx

Your own stats show the best neighbourhoods for new sources of housing (Surrey) has single residential permits falling off a cliff. And while Vancouver might have housing permits/starts - the total number of houses is dropping, so this growth is entirely tear downs.



Any neighbourhood which dropped from 2006 to 2011 census periods is entirely after the legalization of basement suites and the fix in the stats.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by dleung

Geotag, It's not a discrepancy. Secondary suites legalized in 2004 - see the corresponding jump in "other ground oriented" coinciding with an equal-sized drop in SFH between the 2001 and 2006 numbers. The 2011 number including houses with secondary suites would likely be around 340,000, while "other ground oriented" would number around 190,000

To be clear, I think it is a reasonable explanation, but until that is actually made official from a source inside stats can, it is just conjecture. Till now no one has really sourced this.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

I guess it's funny because it shows that all the Chinese property owners in the area are either absentee foreign owners/money launderers, and/or that they have zero sense of community and won't mingle so you won't ever see any at neighborhoods "events" like that... Was that your point, dleung? :p

An alternate interpretation that often comes up is that if people in a crowd are all white, they must at out of touch and they're probably racist so they should be ignored. Hopefully the absurdity of this kind of thinking isn't lost on all readers here.

Anyway, once these heritage buildings are gone they're gone. Thankfully the real estate bubble will also generate easy money forever, right?

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by someone123

An alternate interpretation that often comes up is that if people in a crowd are all white, they must at out of touch and they're probably racist so they should be ignored.

Something something anglicized name... something something safely ignored.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by someone123

An alternate interpretation that often comes up is that if people in a crowd are all white, they must at out of touch and they're probably racist so they should be ignored. Hopefully the absurdity of this kind of thinking isn't lost on all readers here.

Anyway, once these heritage buildings are gone they're gone. Thankfully the real estate bubble will also generate easy money forever, right?

The house that this protest was at is 20 years old. It's hardly a heritage building.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by dleung

Anti-demolition protest at a $7.4 million house on Adera St.


https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress....-08.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=940&h=705

I have to say, it's damn near impossible to find a whiter crowd in Vancouver than this, especially in this predominantly-Asian area between Kerrisdale and Marpole, whiter than 4/20, whiter than Mitt Romney in a snowstorm, etc

And yet if we had posted a picture of opening day at a sales centre of any major condo development in Vancouver and commented on the ethnic make-up, you would be beating your fists on the floor and playing the race card.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by someone123

An alternate interpretation that often comes up is that if people in a crowd are all white, they must at out of touch and they're probably racist so they should be ignored. Hopefully the absurdity of this kind of thinking isn't lost on all readers here.

Anyway, once these heritage buildings are gone they're gone. Thankfully the real estate bubble will also generate easy money forever, right?

It's not like Vancouver ever had much architectural heritage to begin with. In fact, I'd even say that the new McMansions are often nicer than what they're replacing.

Yeah, at first sight, I agree it's totally ridiculous to buy a very nice, perfectly inhabitable multimillion$ house for the express purpose of tearing it down and building a bigger, more-multimillion$ house in its place, but... why not?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And yet if we had posted a picture of opening day at a sales centre of any major condo development in Vancouver and commented on the ethnic make-up, you would be beating your fists on the floor and playing the race card.

Quoted for truth. Even though I don't have an ounce of ''white'' identity in my body. I am actually not entirely European, though I do look ''white'' to most people it's true.

Anyway, nice social climate you guys seem to have out there in Vancouver!

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's not like Vancouver ever had much architectural heritage to begin with. In fact, I'd even say that the new McMansions are often nicer than what they're replacing.

Yeah, at first sight, I agree it's totally ridiculous to buy a very nice, perfectly inhabitable multimillion$ house for the express purpose of tearing it down and building a bigger, more-multimillion$ house in its place, but... why not?

I agree that the new buildings are often an improvement but when they're not it can hurt even more here because there is so little built heritage left. There are some great old buildings, even if they make up a small portion of the modern city. A disproportionate number of nice old houses are on the western side of town where real estate prices are the highest. I used to live near some beautiful old homes around Dunbar (farther North than this example). There are also some architectural duds, including a bunch of walk-ups that survive only because of zoning. It would be better to tear those down.

From a totally self-interested perspective, sure, why not tear anything you want down if you can pay for something you'd like more? Good cities and societies are more than a bunch of isolated self-interested actors though.

[RueBulmer]

Originally Posted by someone123

I agree that the new buildings are often an improvement but when they're not it can hurt even more here because there is so little built heritage left. There are some great old buildings, even if they make up a small portion of the modern city. A disproportionate number of nice old houses are on the western side of town where real estate prices are the highest. I used to live near some beautiful old homes around Dunbar (farther North than this example). There are also some architectural duds, including a bunch of walk-ups that survive only because of zoning. It would be better to tear those down.

From a totally self-interested perspective, sure, why not tear anything you want down if you can pay for something you'd like more? Good cities and societies are more than a bunch of isolated self-interested actors though.

Sure, but when land prices are outrageously high even the neighbourhood fabric becomes expendable. And these replacements aren't increasing population density in any appreciable way. Some would argue it's not much of a change at all.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quoted for truth. Even though I don't have an ounce of ''white'' identity in my body. I am actually not entirely European, though I do look ''white'' to most people it's true.

Anyway, nice social climate you guys seem to have out there in Vancouver!

I thought you were Franco-Ontarian/Acadian? First nations blood?

[dleung]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And yet if we had posted a picture of opening day at a sales centre of any major condo development in Vancouver and commented on the ethnic make-up, you would be beating your fists on the floor and playing the race card.

LOL you know that's false because I'm the first to rub it in about the Asian wealth in Vancouver. The only white people to be found at Aberdeen Centre are the janitors However I'm not upset at the free market for being what it is, and rather blame government policies for not milking it as much as it should... but lashing out at private citizens for buying property just because they're Chinese? That's more your specialty .

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by dleung

LOL you know that's false because I'm the first to rub it in about the Asian wealth in Vancouver. The only white people to be found at Aberdeen Centre are the janitors However I'm not upset at the free market for being what it is, and rather blame government policies for not milking it as much as it should... but lashing out at private citizens for buying property just because they're Chinese? That's more your specialty .

Oh please now you're pushing the bounds of credulity. Everybody knows the janitors are Indian.

I have no problem with Canadian citizens buying property in Canada. Citizens of other countries is a different story.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by dleung

However I'm not upset at the free market for being what it is, and rather blame government policies for not milking it as much as it should...

If the money flooding into the Vancouver housing market was generated in another free market, open economy, then you would have a point here. Alas, China does not have anything remotely resembling a free market. If it did, investors wouldn't be so eager to park their wealth overseas.

So no, the real estate situation in Vancouver is not the result of free markets. The source of the money matters too.

LOL you know that's false because I'm the first to rub it in about the Asian wealth in Vancouver.

Dirty money is nothing to brag about

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by dleung

LOL you know that's false because I'm the first to rub it in about the Asian wealth in Vancouver. The only white people to be found at Aberdeen Centre are the janitors However I'm not upset at the free market for being what it is, and rather blame government policies for not milking it as much as it should... but lashing out at private citizens for buying property just because they're Chinese? That's more your specialty .

What are you compensating for? Oh wait, never mind, we all know...

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Out to lunch. As usual. From ~ 6 months ago:



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/brit...ghnessy-a-heritage-area/article26595142/

But carry on. Not that this will matter much as new SFD subdivisions in Metro Van are few and far between and represent a miniscule proportion of new Metro Van housing in any event.

So you consider one small district getting the city's first heritage designation in the history of a 130 year old city a great accomplishment. The fact that it took this long speaks volumes about how little the city cares for it's history or social well being.

Also, I already knew about the Shaughnessy designation BUT the reason I didn't say so is because the area residents are up in arms about it because it will cause a plunge in the value of their homes as they won't be able to be torn down like all the rest of the homes in the city. This is the most expensive and influential area of the city with powerful political connections to say nothing of the fact that the real estate developers were, naturally, also against it.

The residents have vowed to take the city top court as they have been arbitrarily targeted to halt the destruction of older homes while the rest of the city can be razed to the ground.

These are powerful and wealthy people that write very handsome checks to both local and provincial politicians with huge political sway. They have vowed to take this to the courts and it could take many years before it's settled.

[ssiguy]

Just to continue with the above, apparently if the area residents were to take it to court they would have a good chance at winning.

When I heard they would take it to court I thought it was laughable as the city clearly has the legal right to designate historic districts. Interestingly thou that would not apparently be what they would take to court. The court case would revolve around the fact that the city can't, after 120 years, arbitrarily designate one area historic against the wishes of the people in the area.

They would basically be saying that if the houses in their area can't be torn down {which is what this is all about} then NO houses in any area of the city should be allowed to be torn down unless they increase density. From SW Marine to Kits, to Eastside Specials a house could only be torn down if it is replaced by, at a minimum, a duplex. Foreign "investors" would be up in arms and although it would be good for the city's character it would devastate the city's finances where home demolition permits are a big source of revenue. With the powerful political connections of the people on the Westside and developers that will NEVER happen but the city would have a hard time defending itself as it continually talks about increased density.

It will be interesting to see it work it's way thru the courts but the city would be hard pressed to fight in court it's ability to stop demolitions in one area and let them continue wholesale in the rest of the city when the area residents are demanding higher densities for demolition.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And yet if we had posted a picture of opening day at a sales centre of any major condo development in Vancouver and commented on the ethnic make-up, you would be beating your fists on the floor and playing the race card.

Small observation but I've found in general the fringes to be rather monotone in ethnic make up, whether we are talking about the looney left or the rabid right.

If there was a more general protest about housing affordability in Vancouver, I'm sure the crowd would be much more diverse. A 20 year old 10 million dollar mansion that none of these people could afford in the best of times isn't going to draw a diverse set of support.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

I thought you were Franco-Ontarian/Acadian? First nations blood?

That's my family's *cultural* background.

I do have probably some aboriginal blood as do most people whose roots go back to the original French colonies, but I also have a unique twist in my family tree that's recent enough, and my mother's maiden name is very obviously non-French (and non-European origin). It's rare enough in French-speaking Canada that even if I was to name just the origin it wouldn't be too hard to identify my family. Though my surname is totally French.

As for the "look" I only have a little bit of it but for some reason my siblings (one in particular) have it more and occasionally get accosted by strangers from Origin X who ask them if they are "of Origin X".