Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Well, even if we were to accept that explanation at face value (this un-cited, hearsay, "he said she said" claim of an individual who claims to know more than Stats Can about the statistics), secondary suites were legalized in 2004, so this would have only affected the 2001 to 2006 transition. Even from 2006 to 2011, the city of Vancouver proper has lost single family detached homes, and the total counts are still down significantly from 1996 - a time when secondary suites were not nearly as popular.

At the end of the day, the number of single family detached homes between 2006 and 2011 stands at a paltry 13k units, the majority of which were created in Surrey, which is also the most reasonably priced region in Vancouver metro for single family housing stock.

I agree the biggest barriers to making progress in general on this topic is the general dysfunction in regards to even talking about it. And you can see evidence of the same on display in this very thread, with guys like whatnext and Pinion and others having absolute tunnel vision and doing more harm than good to their alleged goals of improving housing affordability to the region.

Surrey is not the most reasonably priced region of Metro Vancouver, that would Abbotsford and Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows. You should really quit while you're behind.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Surrey is not the most reasonably priced region of Metro Vancouver, that would Abbotsford and Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows. You should really quit while you're behind.

Abbotsford is not even part of metro Vancouver

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by dleung

Quoting this graphic again, because I think it's useful to reference it on the page.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Abbotsford is not even part of metro Vancouver

I'm referring to the way a resident views it, not as some outsider. Share with us your insights on Calgary real estate if you must, otherwise you really have nothing meaningful to offer.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I'm referring to the way a resident views it, not as some outsider. Share with us your insights on Calgary real estate if you must, otherwise you really have nothing meaningful to offer.

Who is trying to "shut down conversations" now?

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Quoting this graphic again, because I think it's useful to reference it on the page.

Getting tiring. Again you are peddling ridiculously flawed statistics that have no bases in reality.

SFH continue to be built by the thousands in Metro Vancouver through new communities in the suburbs to continual subdivisions of lots.

You are making me waste my time. The stats you are referring to are a result of a voluntary questionnaire that was mailed to 4 million house holds across Canada. It is not accurate, and it is being taken completely out of context by people like you.

Methodology of the survey that you get your chart from
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/ref/guides/99-014-x/99-014-x2011007-eng.cfm

Your damn chart does not show counting of dwelling type, its just a survey, with different questions each year. The statistics are ridiculous and laughable for anyone who is remotely familiar with metro Vancouver.

[dleung]

Statscan results have no basis in reality because the sample size was "only" 4 million out of 13 million households in Canada, while you take a non-anglicized Chinese name as irrefutable proof of money laundering... ok got it

As far as platitudes go, yes SFH continues to be built by the thousands... they are also being demolished by the thousands and replaced with townhomes and condos. They are being subdivided yes... but they're also being joined together to create bigger mansions. The net change is a slight increase in numbers for Metro Vancouver and a slight decrease for Vancouver proper.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Getting tiring. Again you are peddling ridiculously flawed statistics that have no bases in reality.

SFH continue to be built by the thousands in Metro Vancouver through new communities in the suburbs to continual subdivisions of lots.

You are making me waste my time. The stats you are referring to are a result of a voluntary questionnaire that was mailed to 4 million house holds across Canada. It is not accurate, and it is being taken completely out of context by people like you.

Methodology of the survey that you get your chart from
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/ref/guides/99-014-x/99-014-x2011007-eng.cfm

Your damn chart does not show counting of dwelling type, its just a survey, with different questions each year. The statistics are ridiculous and laughable for anyone who is remotely familiar with metro Vancouver.

You are doing laughably little work in this thread to back up your own arguments. For one, you simply dismissed out of hand official metro vancouver & stats can statistics as "🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵" without providing information on housing starts.

Further, I actually did the work and showed you the statistics on housing starts and they were far below what you are claiming.

Now, you link to the methodology of Stats Can, and you do absolutely zero work to justify how your link to the methodology allows you to dismiss out of hand all housing statistics that go against your beliefs.

I actually did read your link, and all it says is that questions regarding identifying condominium residences has changed, but further alleges that the methodologies used to estimate these numbers are sound.

To repeat, there is nothing in any of the sources you or any one else has provided that do anything to disprove or call into question the official stats published by both Metro Vancouver and Stats Can. The one alleged discrepancy cited, recalled offhand by urbandreamer, is as of now, still un-sourced, undocumented hearsay.

If this is what constitutes "effort" in your vocabulary, all I can say is I am glad you are not my employee.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by geotag277

You are doing laughably little work in this thread to back up your own arguments. For one, you simply dismissed out of hand official metro vancouver & stats can statistics as "🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵" without providing information on housing starts.

Further, I actually did the work and showed you the statistics on housing starts and they were far below what you are claiming.

Now, you link to the methodology of Stats Can, and you do absolutely zero work to justify how your link to the methodology allows you to dismiss out of hand all housing statistics that go against your beliefs.

I actually did read your link, and all it says is that questions regarding identifying condominium residences has changed, but further alleges that the methodologies used to estimate these numbers are sound.

To repeat, there is nothing in any of the sources you or any one else has provided that do anything to disprove or call into question the official stats published by both Metro Vancouver and Stats Can. The one alleged discrepancy cited, recalled offhand by urbandreamer, is as of now, still un-sourced, undocumented hearsay.

If this is what constitutes "effort" in your vocabulary, all I can say is I am glad you are not my employee.

Fine here are building permits for metro Vancouver since 1998. Since 2006 over 37,000 single family dwelling units were constructed, some are rebuilds, the rate is however constant since at least 98. Most are new homes. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Files/71df1...lBuildingPermitsUnitsSingleDwellings.csv

Also next time read the methodology section I linked to.

Link to the rest of building permit stats. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Economy/BuildingPermitsHousingStartsandSales.aspx

[dleung]

Geotag, It's not a discrepancy. Secondary suites legalized in 2004 - see the corresponding jump in "other ground oriented" coinciding with an equal-sized drop in SFH between the 2001 and 2006 numbers. The 2011 number including houses with secondary suites would likely be around 340,000, while "other ground oriented" would number around 190,000

[dleung]

Anti-demolition protest at a $7.4 million house on Adera St.


https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress....-08.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=940&h=705

I have to say, it's damn near impossible to find a whiter crowd in Vancouver than this, especially in this predominantly-Asian area between Kerrisdale and Marpole, whiter than 4/20, whiter than Mitt Romney in a snowstorm, etc

[Rico Rommheim]

7.2 million? Jesus.

[logan5]

Folks on the west side protest everything, so it's not necessarily all about Chinese taking over a neighbourhood.

[ssiguy]

There is nothing the protesters can do to stop the demolitions as only individual buildings have historical protection and the inventory hasn't been updated since the 80s. The city doesn't have a single designated historical zone so in terms of tear downs there is nothing they can do.

[ssiguy]

The situation in Vancouver can now never be stopped. The city and province decided years ago that the city was not a community but rather a commodity to be sold to the highest bidder. The city has sold it's soul to the devil and the devil isn't about to renegotiate the terms just because the city has suddenly realized that things didn't turn out quite as rosy as they thought.

It's far too late for Vancouver to ever regain her liveability or the weird quirkiness that made it's so endearing in the past. It's gone from relaxed flower power San Francisco to the raw capitalism and dog eat dog mentality of Hong Kong in a generation.

The only good thing that has come out of this mayhem is that it offers other cities the opportunity of learning how to avoid Vancouver's mistakes and create a city for people to enjoy and not a commodity to be sold.

[Pinion]

.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There is nothing the protesters can do to stop the demolitions as only individual buildings have historical protection and the inventory hasn't been updated since the 80s. The city doesn't have a single designated historical zone so in terms of tear downs there is nothing they can do.

Out to lunch. As usual. From ~ 6 months ago:

Vancouver designates First Shaughnessy a heritage area
FRANCES BULA
VANCOUVER — Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 9:39PM EDT

A luxury neighbourhood of grand old homes and lush greenery is being designated as Vancouver’s first-ever heritage conservation area in an effort to halt a tide of demolitions and assuage fears that the city is being wrecked by a brash new group of home buyers who do not care about its history.

Vancouver city council voted unanimously to put the new designation on First Shaughnessy, created in 1907 by Canadian Pacific Railway as a high-class new subdivision.

“I’m thrilled to be preserving this neighbourhood in perpetuity for the people of Vancouver,” Vision Vancouver councillor Heather Deal said as she initiated the vote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/brit...ghnessy-a-heritage-area/article26595142/

But carry on. Not that this will matter much as new SFD subdivisions in Metro Van are few and far between and represent a miniscule proportion of new Metro Van housing in any event.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Yes, it is my "brother" and yes that's what his realtor said.

Kinda like when "he said" "she said"... when ya mentioned all millennials were leaving Metro Vancouver en masse? Good fricken grief man. Ya have a propensity for postin' 🞵🞵🞵🞵 on here. "THINK" before ya post on here...man !!!!!!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Why is this funny?

I guess it's funny because it shows that all the Chinese property owners in the area are either absentee foreign owners/money launderers, and/or that they have zero sense of community and won't mingle so you won't ever see any at neighborhoods "events" like that... Was that your point, dleung? :p

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Leaving Vancouver for Toronto? That's the craziest thing I've heard in this thread!

Unless you have Asian fever (white guys chasing oriental tail), a Chinese immigrant or are a pansy that cant handle a cold winter to get other lifestyle benefits then, yes, Toronto is a heck of a lot better Infact, even for Chinese born here and integrated, Toronto makes more sense. I dont care how glitzy the houses are, most people are not interested in living in a socially-inept, introverted fob-fest. Fat houses with shiny lion statues and gold Mercedes dont compensate for soulless communities and soulless, boring people.