YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[MalcolmTucker]

YHZ will be a great hub for Trans-Atlantic Ops with the new 737 Max


Source: http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=&RANG...RANGE-STYLE=best&RANGE-COLOR=&MAP-STYLE=

[Hot Rod]

Yes, Halifax for Trans-Atlantic and Vancouver for Trans-Pacific. I LOVE IT!

Just think:

Vancouver-Nagoya
Vancouver-Harbin
Vancouver-Kaohsiung
Vancouver-Vladivostok

In addition to the "usual players" likely routes of Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo-Narita, Osaka-Kansai, Taipei, and perhaps Hong Kong - all within the range of 767 for WestJet. Maybe WestJet could also do some NA/Crossborder to coveted routes we all want:

Vancouver-Havana
Vancouver-Miami
Vancouver-Boston
Vancouver-New York JFK (assuming Cathay/Philippines no longer does it)
Vancouver-Baltimore (BWI)
Vancouver-Philadelphia
Vancouver-Guadalajara->Lima
Vancouver-Monterrey (sexy city like Vancouver)->Santiago

all within the reach of 767 and/or the MAX I believe. Yes I am dreaming, but just think if WJ really did make Vancouver a major hub and International gateway - these cities would be doable and likely profitable since the routes I highlighted are not currently served by anyone.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The only destination not served by YVR is DXB. The only carriers not served by YVR are EK, OZ and HU.

OZ... I wouldn't be surprised if that changed soon.

Would be nice to have a gulf carrier too, Ethiad has a beautiful livery, would love to see them send a daily A350. Doubt it will happen from a regulatory standpoint, but I bet Ethiad could make it work via connections to the subcontinent and Africa.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

How does SEA compare to YVR in
-total overseas flights
-total overseas pax

Also, is Seattle ramping up, trying to compete with the YVR Pacific Gateway role, or not? In the USA, it has to compete with SFO and LAX, which are mega-destinations.

I was wondering this after I posted the flight cuts at SEA so I put them in my lil chart...



Just for your memories, here's YVR...



It's really not even close. YVR sees about 120 more intl' flights per week on much larger planes which translates to about 40,000 more seats per week.

In fact YVRs international traffic is more than double Seattle's.

[trofirhen]

Thanks Leftcoaster!! Now all we need is a Gulf carrrier (someone mentioned ETIHAD) and we're smokin'!!!!! Let's get to it and relegate SEA to a secondary overseas gateway

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Klazu

I remember there having been some discussion that a future expansion will expand the outlet towards west and closer to the station, but I don't know when this would be, especially since there is a piece of land to be built also next to the Arthur Lange Bridge.

Anyone know what the expansion schedule is? I have the impression that the outlet has been a success, so one would think they would keep building on top of it...

I though the expansion was on the cleared land to the East, as that side of the mall looks "unfinished" ie. the walkway just ends in hoarding.

The parkign lot rarely looks close to full. I can't believe YVR panicked after the opening week and added that additional smoothed gravel lot to the south. I wonder how much that cost?

[Hot Rod]

I was thinking Etihad should be something Vancouver tries to grab, also.

[Hot Rod]

SEA already is a 2ndary Overseas gateway. Also, the airline numbers (per Alliance) in the chart for SeaTac are incorrect.

Also of interest is when you look at Intercontinental per destination:

SEA:

Asia
Beijing (Delta, Hainan)
Dubai (Eremites)*
Hong Kong (Delta)
Seoul (Asiana*, Delta, Korean)
Shanghai (Delta, Hainan)
Taipei (EVA)
Tokyo-Narita (ANA, Delta)


Europe
Amsterdam (Delta)
Frankfurt (Condor, Lufthansa)
London (British, Delta)
Paris (Delta)
Reykjavik (Iceland)

VANCOUVER:

Asia
Beijing (Air Canada, Air China**)
Chengdu (Sichuan**)**
Chongqing (Tianjin Airlines**)**
Guangzhou (China Southern**)**
Hong Kong (Air Canada, Cathay Pacific**)
Huangzhou (Beijing Capital Airlines**)**
Kunming (China Eastern**)**
Manila (Philippine**)**
Osaka (Air Canada)**
Qingdao (Beijing Capital Airlines**)**
Seoul (Air Canada, Korean)
Shanghai (Air Canada, China Eastern**)
Shenyang (Sichuan**)**
Taipei (China Airlines**, EVA)
Tianjin (Hainan, Tianjin**)**
Tokyo (-Haneda [ANA]**, -Narita [Air Canada, Japan Airlines**])
Xiamen (Xiamen Airlines**)**


Australasia
Auckland (Air New Zealand**)**
Brisbane (Air Canada)**
Sydney (Air Canada, Qantas**)**

Europe
Amsterdam (KLM**)
Dublin (Air Canada)**
Frankfurt (Condor, Lufthansa, )
Glasgow (Air Transat**)**
London (-Gatwick [Air Transat**, WestJet]**, -Heathrow [Air Canada, British Airways])
Manchester (Air Transat**)**
Munich (Lufthansa)**
Paris (Air France**, Air Transat**)
Reykjavik (Iceland)
Rome (Air Transat**)**
Zurich (Edelweiss**)**

Exclusives:

SEATTLE (CITY* 1-Dubai) [AIRLINE* 2-Asiana, Emirates]

VANCOUVER (CITY** [ASIA/PAC 14], [EU 6] ) (AIRLINE** [ASIA/PAC 11], [EU 4]) (AIRPORT** 2-Haneda, Gatwick)

Seattle-Tacoma serves one city (Dubai) that Vancouver doesn't and has two airlines (Asiana, Emirates) that Vancouver doesn't [although, I think Asiana is coming].

Vancouver serves 14 Asia Pacific cities and 6 EU cities, and 2 airports (Haneda, Gatwick) that Seattle doesn't. Vancouver has 11 Asia Pacific airlines and 4 EU airlines that Seattle doesn't.

Clearly, Vancouver is the largest Intercontinental Market in the Pacific Northwest, by far. I didn't include Mexico City in my analysis because it is on North America continent; but if you did count then Vancouver would win with one city served on two airlines.

Now let's look at TRUE International: Seattle serves Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver (all cities which Vancouver serves). Vancouver serves (LA, SF, LAS, SAN, IAD, ORD, DFW, IAH, SBF**, JFK**, EWR**, HNL, Maui, SLC, ATL, DTW, MSP, PHX, PDX, ANC, MEX**). Although Seattle serves many MORE cities within the US Domestic, Vancouver is the bigger Transborder route airport (including many cities** Seattle does not serve) and therefore when you consider all International - Vancouver is by far the biggest.

Very interesting - now if YVR had a hub and a mini-hub with Domestic routing like SEA does with Alaska and Delta, then YVR's true impact could be seen. YVR DOES have a hub in Air Canada and a mini-hub in WestJet, but Canada Domestic just doesn't have as many routes as US Domestic; even considering SEA's relative low level service Domestic (mostly on AS and mostly on West Coast). This can be seen by the Vancouver Domestic 10M vs SEA Domestic of 30M+ for 2015. Even if you consider both cities likely double count at least half of the Domestic (due to connections), SEA would still be ahead with around 10-15M O/D and YVR around 6M O/D. Vancouver can't change its Domestic Canada so it is probably stuck under 15M pax per year even with growth from WJ. But Vancouver can add more Intercontinental (Asia, Pacific, ME, and SA) to perhaps double that figure to around 10M and Transborder/North America to 10M, giving YVR around 35M pax per year as a ceiling.

Another interesting point is Vancouver's Europe offering. I always assumed Seattle was bigger or the same size, I had no idea YVR leaves SEA in the dust there too. YVR isn't just Asia and Pacific, it is EU as well (and I hope it continues to grow - Copenhagen, Oslo, Barcelona, Lisbon, Prague, Istambul, Moscow, maybe Warsaw - all come to mind).

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

SEA already is a 2ndary Overseas gateway. Also, the airline numbers (per Alliance) in the chart for SeaTac are incorrect.

What should they be?

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

Yes, Halifax for Trans-Atlantic and Vancouver for Trans-Pacific. I LOVE IT!

Just think:

Vancouver-Nagoya
Vancouver-Harbin
Vancouver-Kaohsiung
Vancouver-Vladivostok

The 737MAX is in range of none of those ciites. It would have to be a 767. The Pacific ocean is big. Really big. LHR is closer than Asia is to YVR.

In addition to the "usual players" likely routes of Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo-Narita, Osaka-Kansai, Taipei, and perhaps Hong Kong - all within the range of 767 for WestJet. Maybe WestJet could also do some NA/Crossborder to coveted routes we all want:

Vancouver-Havana
Vancouver-Miami
Vancouver-Boston
Vancouver-New York JFK (assuming Cathay/Philippines no longer does it)
Vancouver-Baltimore (BWI)
Vancouver-Philadelphia
Vancouver-Guadalajara->Lima
Vancouver-Monterrey (sexy city like Vancouver)->Santiago

all within the reach of 767 and/or the MAX I believe. Yes I am dreaming, but just think if WJ really did make Vancouver a major hub and International gateway - these cities would be doable and likely profitable since the routes I highlighted are not currently served by anyone.

Yes, all those cities should be in range of YVR.

Assuming a 3515nm range:

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I though the expansion was on the cleared land to the East, as that side of the mall looks "unfinished" ie. the walkway just ends in hoarding.

Yeah, that side is likely to be the next expansion, but I recall the long-term plan calling also for another major expansion to the west, over some of the parking lot. That's what I was referring to, but I might be mistaken.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

What should they be?

Star - 4
OW - 1
ST - 2
None - 4

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

The Pacific ocean is big. Really big. LHR is closer than Asia is to YVR.

NRT is closer to YVR than LHR.

I am sure NGO is on rouge's radar.

I wouldn't be surprised if another Mexican carrier comes in and restarts GDL and/or MTY.

Let's see what happens in the next few years with further China / other Asia expansion. Also perhaps a new transborder route or two.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

I was thinking Etihad should be something Vancouver tries to grab, also.

Johnny, sorry to always rely on your expertise, but do you know anything about the regulations surrounding the other ME3 carriers? I know Emirates was not granted additional slots but do any of them have any available capacity or routes to gaining additional slots? Both Montreal and Toronto have ME3 service, and I'd imagine they could make Vancouver work as well, given the large Persian and Indian diaspora here.

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

SEA already is a 2ndary Overseas gateway. Also, the airline numbers (per Alliance) in the chart for SeaTac are incorrect.

Ya I missed that update when I copied it over from the other tab. I've updated but wont bother reposting.

Originally Posted by Klazu

Yeah, that side is likely to be the next expansion, but I recall the long-term plan calling also for another major expansion to the west, over some of the parking lot. That's what I was referring to, but I might be mistaken.

I believe you are correct, however I'm not sure we'll see either expansion soon. There are still a lot of vacant units in the initial buildout.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I am sure NGO is on rouge's radar.

I wouldn't be surprised if another Mexican carrier comes in and restarts GDL and/or MTY.

Let's see what happens in the next few years with further China / other Asia expansion. Also perhaps a new transborder route or two.

Additional Mexican carriers would be interesting, I'm assuming Volaris or Interjet?

Interesting anecdote, I was playing around with flights from China (PEK, PVG) to Mexico City, and YVR was the most cost effective and quickest transit point almost every time I searched. Certainly bodes well for the first steps of our gateway to Latin America plan.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I wouldn't be surprised if another Mexican carrier comes in and restarts GDL and/or MTY.

For real ??? ... !! That'd be fantastic; Monterrey and Guadalajara, in addition to Mexico City ... en route to Lima and Santiago !!!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Johnny, sorry to always rely on your expertise, but do you know anything about the regulations surrounding the other ME3 carriers? I know Emirates was not granted additional slots but do any of them have any available capacity or routes to gaining additional slots? Both Montreal and Toronto have ME3 service, and I'd imagine they could make Vancouver work as well, given the large Persian and Indian diaspora here.

Additional Mexican carriers would be interesting, I'm assuming Volaris or Interjet?

Both EK and EY are restricted by the UAE bilaterals. Tapped out. AC wouldn't bother with YVR-DXB.

QR also restricted with Qatar bilaterals - tapped out between pax and cargo.

One day it may just happen...until then don't give up on your hopes and dreams.

Volaris, Interjet or VivaLasVegasAerobus

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Both EK and EY are restricted by the UAE bilaterals. Tapped out. AC wouldn't bother with YVR-DXB.

AC is tapped out too. The bilateral is restricted to up to 3x weekly per airlines, and up to 6x weekly per country.

AC already used up their 3x weekly on YYZ-DXB. The remaining 3x weekly for Canada will remain unused unless WS, TS, or WG find interest in DXB...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

AC is tapped out too. The bilateral is restricted to up to 3x weekly per airlines, and up to 6x weekly per country.

AC already used up their 3x weekly on YYZ-DXB. The remaining 3x weekly for Canada will remain unused unless WS, TS, or WG find interest in DXB...

Are your sure about the 3x per week restriction by airline?

I thought it was 6x per week by country.

EK stuffed up by launching YYZ with only 3 weekly quickly realising they could have maxed out at 6. Only to be beaten to the punch by EY. Hence why they were so aggressive trying to get more frequencies.

Pretty sure AC could add 3 more per week. They are conservatively starting with 3x per week to test the market. I could be wrong. Regardless I highly doubt we would ever see AC on YVR-DXB. Need more feed on the DXB side (which AC wouldn't have) than YVR.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Are your sure about the 3x per week restriction by airline?

I thought it was 6x per week by country.

EK stuffed up by launching YYZ with only 3 weekly quickly realising they could have maxed out at 6. Only to be beaten to the punch by EY. Hence why they were so aggressive trying to get more frequencies.

Pretty sure AC could add 3 more per week. They are conservatively starting with 3x per week to test the market. I could be wrong. Regardless I highly doubt we would ever see AC on YVR-DXB. Need more feed on the DXB side (which AC wouldn't have) than YVR.

for direct own aircraft services, up to a maximum of four flights per week in each direction without restriction as to size of aircraft effective immediately, five flights per week effective June 1, 2001 and six flights per week effective June 1, 2003. Requests for seasonal increases in frequency shall be given sympathetic consideration consistent with paragraph 5 of Article XI. The operation of a frequency beyond three flights per week by any one designated airline shall be subject to the approval of the aeronautical authorities of both Contracting Parties.

I'm sure UAE won't approve if AC ever request to fly more than 3x weekly unless Canada give them more than the 6x weekly they had

[trofirhen]

Does YVR really need a Gulf carrier anyway?
Yes, I know the route from SEA ->< DBX is profitable, but Dubai is EXACTLY on the opposite longitude from YVR (and SEA)!!
I think Turkish (*Alliance) would be equally good, if not better. IST is a great connection point for the Mideast and Africa, and the Turkey-Canada bilateral seems looser than the UAE bilateral.
And IST is a great connection to the Balkans, Iran, Caucasus and Eastern Mediterranean regions, where a lot of immigrants here seem to be coming from these days.

[nname]

And reading the bilaterals, I noticed something for India:

From India:
Route 1: [any points in India] - [point(s) in Europe or Asia west of India] - YYZ and/or YUL - [point(s) in USA]
Route 2: [any points in India] - [point(s) in Asia Pacific east of India] - YVR or YEG

From Canada:
Route 1: [any points in Canada] - [point(s) in Europe or Asia west of India] - BOM or DEL - [point(s) in SE Asia]
Route 2: [any points in Canada] - [point(s) in Asia Pacific east of India] - DEL or CCU

Capacity limit: 2100 seats/week on route 1, 2x weekly on route 2

Since AC already picked YYZ-DEL for route 1, any chance of direct flight to India from YVR would be:
- a tag on to AC's YYZ-DEL route (route 1)
- a 2x weekly route from AC and/or AI/9W (route 2)

Pretty sure none of those would be happening