AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[GoldenBoot]

ABIA is currently running at almost 1 million PAX per year over its operating capacity. I still laugh that the airport thinks they'll be ok until "2025"...when they anticipate that the forthcoming, ~$350 million, nine-gate, expansion reaches its 15 million PAX capacity. We'll be there far before 2025!

ABIA will accommodate 23.4 million PAX by then end of 2025 @ 7% annual growth...19.4 million @ 5%...15.2 million @ 2.5% (and we know we will not average 2.5% growth between now and 2025). Crap, if we average 10% growth, we'll see 30.9 million PAX pass through ABIA by the end of 2025.

However, those higher numbers can only be attained if the airport has the space to expand to meet the expected "future" demand. That is the catch-22...but, it's there for the taking (maybe). Who is in charge of forecasting PAX growth at ABIA?

[ILUVSAT]

Holy crap...what did I miss?

Up 12% in January? Geez...SA doesn't know its right foot from its left. But, maybe it is what it is...right?

Congrats to my second favorite city on earth! Keep it going!!! At least you're not but an hour from me (in decent traffic).

[drummer]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

Holy crap...what did I miss?

Up 12% in January? Geez...SA doesn't know its right foot from its left. But, maybe it is what it is...right?

Congrats to my second favorite city on earth! Keep it going!!! At least you're not but an hour from me (in decent traffic).

Yeah, but since when has there been "decent traffic..."

[Austin1971]

M

[Jdawgboy]

I'm shocked that British Airways dropped by 10% when all the other major airlines went up. The only other airline that saw a drop was Texas Sky. This may be a typical thing as January is probably not a big international travelling month. Still that's a 10% drop which isn't good however you want to slice it. These are the first full year to year numbers for January. BA has been flying since March of 2014 so it's not like they are that new anymore. I really hope that it's just a blip on an otherwise strong route.

[hookem]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I'm shocked that British Airways dropped by 10% when all the other major airlines went up. The only other airline that saw a drop was Texas Sky.

You might want to give that report one more read just to be sure...

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I'm shocked that British Airways dropped by 10% when all the other major airlines went up. The only other airline that saw a drop was Texas Sky. This may be a typical thing as January is probably not a big international travelling month. Still that's a 10% drop which isn't good however you want to slice it. These are the first full year to year numbers for January. BA has been flying since March of 2014 so it's not like they are that new anymore. I really hope that it's just a blip on an otherwise strong route.

As hookem hinted at, BA was up 14% not down 10%. That was Virgin America that was down.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

ABIA is currently running at almost 1 million PAX per year over its operating capacity. I still laugh that the airport thinks they'll be ok until "2025"...when they anticipate that the forthcoming, ~$350 million, nine-gate, expansion reaches its 15 million PAX capacity. We'll be there far before 2025!

I think we might hit 15 million before expansion is even complete!

[Jdawgboy]

Oops your right. Disregard my earlier post lol. I wish they wouldn't list them that way because it's a little confusing. Its probably different on a computer screen but I use my phone and they just have them run together.

[ATCZERO]

February traffic was WAY up. The extra day helped.

Total operations for the Tower and Tracon combined were almost 6,000 greater than the previous February.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by ATCZERO

February traffic was WAY up. The extra day helped.

Total operations for the Tower and Tracon combined were almost 6,000 greater than the previous February.

What was the breakdown? How much growth in commercial traffic, cargo traffic, and general aviation? Should we expect passenger growth in the neighborhood of what was reported for January (~12%)?

[ATCZERO]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

What was the breakdown? How much growth in commercial traffic, cargo traffic, and general aviation? Should we expect passenger growth in the neighborhood of what was reported for January (~12%)?

I'll try to take a look at the breakdown tomorrow. I'm not sure the traffic count program can show the breakdown but I'll see. If I can't post it tomorrow (sick kid at home) then I will post it Friday.

[hereinaustin]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

ABIA is currently running at almost 1 million PAX per year over its operating capacity. I still laugh that the airport thinks they'll be ok until "2025"...when they anticipate that the forthcoming, ~$350 million, nine-gate, expansion reaches its 15 million PAX capacity. We'll be there far before 2025!

ABIA will accommodate 23.4 million PAX by then end of 2025 @ 7% annual growth...19.4 million @ 5%...15.2 million @ 2.5% (and we know we will not average 2.5% growth between now and 2025). Crap, if we average 10% growth, we'll see 30.9 million PAX pass through ABIA by the end of 2025.

If Dallas Love handled 14M+ passengers last year with only 20 gates, shouldn't we be okay with the 24 that we have now? At least for awhile longer?

[Austin1971]

[

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by hereinaustin

If Dallas Love handled 14M+ passengers last year with only 20 gates, shouldn't we be okay with the 24 that we have now? At least for awhile longer?

It's is not as simple as comparing total passengers to total number of gates. Each airport has its own design operational maximums.

[DoubleC]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2016/03/07/austin-a-future-hub/

I wonder which airlines were the other the 10% that passengers connected on. I suppose Jetblue could've been one of them. Passengers don't normally fly from a hub, to a non-hub, and then to another hub? right? (Ie, DFW-AUS-LAX).

[Austin1971]

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[Digatisdi]

Does anybody at the airport actually believe we won't hit 15 million passengers per year until 2025? If we have 3% growth until then we'll hit the 15,000,000 mark 8.7 years. I'd argue that's a completely unrealistically conservative estimate. If you use 11%, which I'd argue is a high estimate, we hit it in 2.37 years. I'd argue that 7% growth is still pretty unrealistic, and yet that's still 3.72 years.

I hope the airport is working on a new estimate because the one they keep citing is pretty outdated if you ask me.

[hereinaustin]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

Does anybody at the airport actually believe we won't hit 15 million passengers per year until 2025? If we have 3% growth until then we'll hit the 15,000,000 mark 8.7 years. I'd argue that's a completely unrealistically conservative estimate. If you use 11%, which I'd argue is a high estimate, we hit it in 2.37 years. I'd argue that 7% growth is still pretty unrealistic, and yet that's still 3.72 years.

I hope the airport is working on a new estimate because the one they keep citing is pretty outdated if you ask me.

I think you've made a good point: it's difficult to accurately predict the future. We may be looking at some sort of global recession over the next two years which could change a lot of things. As I implied earlier, there are probably things we can do to make our airport more efficient like Dallas Love, which is on track for over 15M with just 20 gates, despite a far crappier passenger pick-up/drop-off than us. It's really not time to panic yet.

[DoubleC]

Aaaand here's another nonstop!

Twice weekly to Albuquerque on allegiant.

http://krqe.com/2016/03/08/allegiant-to-fly-between-albuquerque-and-las-vegas-austin/