YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[LeftCoaster]

Of course!

It shows the transborder cities we don't currently fly into cant for the most part support many flights, with the obvious exceptions being Boston, Washington, Miami/Ft Lauderdale and to a lesser extent Sacramento, Tampa and Austin.

Given Atlanta's hub status though I'm surprised that 3 days worth of O&D isn't enough to couple with it's hub traffic to allow for a daily. I would think them ignoring this link pushes more SE US, Caribbean and Florida flyers through Dallas and Houston benefiting AA and United respectively.

[Henbo]

"the fact we are hiring people who speak Portuguese, Italian, German, Mandarin and Cantonese gives people a pretty good guess at where we’re going next"

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/asia+...s+asia/11750237/story.html#ixzz41sS5FTy6

I know YYZ already has service to Rio, and Sao Paulo (and Lisbon), but is it feasible that WestJet could be planning service to Brazil?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Henbo

............
http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/asia+...s+asia/11750237/story.html#ixzz41sS5FTy6

I know YYZ already has service to Rio, and Sao Paulo (and Lisbon), but is it feasible that WestJet could be planning service to Brazil?

If yes, this would no doubt be out of YYZ, and only YYZ, I presume?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Of course!

It shows the transborder cities we don't currently fly into cant for the most part support many flights, with the obvious exceptions being Boston, Washington, Miami/Ft Lauderdale and to a lesser extent Sacramento, Tampa and Austin.

Given Atlanta's hub status though I'm surprised that 3 days worth of O&D isn't enough to couple with it's hub traffic to allow for a daily. I would think them ignoring this link pushes more SE US, Caribbean and Florida flyers through Dallas and Houston benefiting AA and United respectively.

As I've said before.... Love your work!

I honestly don't see TPA or AUS for at least the next decade or more. Neither one would offer a large enough O&D to even make an economic case.
Especially TPA would be 98% leisure. Also, MCO is more than double TPA and only recently is WS even attempting a seasonal twice weekly service. National pulled the pin before even launching.
AUS, again too small a market for even a daily CRA. It is a bit of a stretch to include AUS and SAT as a single market (as is CLE and CVG). Even attempting to tap into some sort of AUS-Asia transit is just too competitive for such a small market.

Sure I see BOS, MIA/FLL, more IAD, more ATL and maybe PHL as front runners. Perhaps AC is looking at SMF again.

BOS - mainly O&D but BOS is also increasing its direct Asia flights so less likely to grab much of that market especially with YYZ's direct Asian network too.
MIA/FLL - decent leisure O&D plus MIA's massive South America network. Perhaps AA may attempt that again and/or AC. MIA still lacks direct Asian flights.
IAD - decent O&D and UA's IAD hub would help. Let's not also forget AC did apply for YVR-DCA as part of DCA's limited release of beyond-perimeter slots a couple of years ago.
PHL - mediocre O&D and a large hub for AA.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Henbo

"the fact we are hiring people who speak Portuguese, Italian, German, Mandarin and Cantonese gives people a pretty good guess at where we’re going next"

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/asia+...s+asia/11750237/story.html#ixzz41sS5FTy6

I know YYZ already has service to Rio, and Sao Paulo (and Lisbon), but is it feasible that WestJet could be planning service to Brazil?

HKG is a pretty competitive market but also a strong OneWorld city. German I would not have expected. Maybe they'll make a big deal out of flying into the new Berlin airport? Berlin and Dusseldorf are big OneWorld hubs ( and much nicer than Frankfurt for O/D travel ) which would fit into WestJet's non-alliance routes as well.

Of note: Air Berlin does not have ANY flights to Canada as far as I can tell, so an agreement between WestJet and Air Berlin seems like a good fit. That would be a GREAT option out of YVR! ( but I imagine YYZ gets that one if anything comes of it ).

[Klazu]

Talking about Boston, there has been all winter some very cheap Air Canada flights via Toronto, so I wouldn't be surprised if many people have taken that flight this winter.

Regarding Austin, it is a major tech hub in Texas. Many Silicon Valley tech firms that have an office here seem to also have an office there, hence there might be a growing potential on that route.

Air Berlin used to fly to Vancouver from Düsseldorf not so many winters ago. What happened with that route? DUS is indeed a nice and modern airport, but both current Berlin airports are horrible. If and when the new BBI opens, that may change many things, considering Berlin being one of the world's most popular tourist destinations and a growing tech hub.

Funny enough, I am currently browsing some flights to several different Florida airports. I have to say that connection options out of Vancouver are pretty poor, with most cheap flights being via Dallas and Phoenix. The latter seems especially common as the cheapest option when flying to east coast, I wonder why? They have cheap landing fees in there?

[vanlaw]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Maybe they'll make a big deal out of flying into the new Berlin airport?

At this point they don't even know when, or whether, it will open, with some calling for it to be demolished and rebuilt. It is actually astonishing what has happened there. A complete clusterF. We had friends from Germany come and visit us in June 2012. When they booked their tickets in early 2012, they were scheduled to fly out of TXL and return to BER. Shortly before the planned June 2012 move, opening was cancelled. That was almost 4 years ago, and the most optimistic opening date is now late 2017.

Long article, but a great read:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2...airport-became-a-6-billion-embarrassment

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Henbo

"the fact we are hiring people who speak Portuguese, Italian, German, Mandarin and Cantonese gives people a pretty good guess at where we’re going next"

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/asia+...s+asia/11750237/story.html#ixzz41sS5FTy6

I know YYZ already has service to Rio, and Sao Paulo (and Lisbon), but is it feasible that WestJet could be planning service to Brazil?

I'd imagine that portugese would be for the Portugal market, not Brazil.

Also Cantonese strikes me as weird considering the HKG market is already very well served and out of the range of their 763s.

They're going to need to acquire some new planes if they plan on these markets, and given their current share nose dive that may be somewhat optimistic.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I honestly don't see TPA or AUS for at least the next decade or more. Neither one would offer a large enough O&D to even make an economic case.
Especially TPA would be 98% leisure. Also, MCO is more than double TPA and only recently is WS even attempting a seasonal twice weekly service. National pulled the pin before even launching.
AUS, again too small a market for even a daily CRA. It is a bit of a stretch to include AUS and SAT as a single market (as is CLE and CVG). Even attempting to tap into some sort of AUS-Asia transit is just too competitive for such a small market.

Sure I see BOS, MIA/FLL, more IAD, more ATL and maybe PHL as front runners. Perhaps AC is looking at SMF again.

BOS - mainly O&D but BOS is also increasing its direct Asia flights so less likely to grab much of that market especially with YYZ's direct Asian network too.
MIA/FLL - decent leisure O&D plus MIA's massive South America network. Perhaps AA may attempt that again and/or AC. MIA still lacks direct Asian flights.
IAD - decent O&D and UA's IAD hub would help. Let's not also forget AC did apply for YVR-DCA as part of DCA's limited release of beyond-perimeter slots a couple of years ago.
PHL - mediocre O&D and a large hub for AA.

I'd totally agree with this analysis.

The two I really want to see are Boston and Miami for obvious connectivity reasons. IAD growth would be nice too.

AUS is the only one i think may surprise some. I know of a few tech firms based in Austin with major growing operations in Vancouver. If this trend continues we might see a surprise there.

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by vanlaw

At this point they don't even know when, or whether, it will open, with some calling for it to be demolished and rebuilt. It is actually astonishing what has happened there. A complete clusterF.

Yeah, the original opening date for BBI (Berlin-Brandenburg International, I think that is still the name and not BER?) was indeed 2012. I didn't read your link, but I remember reading that they installed some oversize A/C equipment on the roof and have since been afraid of the structure not being able to hold them, etc. crazy stuff.

The good reputation of German engineering is taking a big hit with this project, although I am sure there has been a lot of outsourcing etc. typical stuff...

On the other hand Hamburg is having an even more embarrassing project called Elbphilharmonie. That was supposed to be completed six years ago...

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

MIA still lacks direct Asian flights.

Is there an airplane that could even make Miami - Asia flights work? Isn't that a crazy long route even just to Japan and South Korea?

Even the routes out of New York are very long to begin with, but then again, there used to be a direct JFK-SIN route which was world's longest until cancelled. I always wondered which way it flew - over the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Talking about Boston, there has been all winter some very cheap Air Canada flights via Toronto, so I wouldn't be surprised if many people have taken that flight this winter.

Air Berlin used to fly to Vancouver from Düsseldorf not so many winters ago. What happened with that route?

Funny enough, I am currently browsing some flights to several different Florida airports. I have to say that connection options out of Vancouver are pretty poor, with most cheap flights being via Dallas and Phoenix.

BOS would be a real struggle to make work in the winter. I only see YVR-BOS as a summer seasonal service if it ever re-opens.

About three years ago, Air Berlin pulled out of all Non-one World hub cities in North America. The service was a summer seasonal service only.

http://worldairlinenews.com/2012/11/16/a...asing-service-to-american-airlines-hubs/

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

AUS is the only one i think may surprise some. I know of a few tech firms based in Austin with major growing operations in Vancouver. If this trend continues we might see a surprise there.

Yes, if the trend continues. I would still expect this O&D market would need to double in order to even attempt a non-stop service. Without any potential of a hub on that end you'd need a lot more than 50 ppdew to even show up on a radar as a potential new route.

Originally Posted by Klazu

Is there an airplane that could even make Miami - Asia flights work? Isn't that a crazy long route even just to Japan and South Korea.

And welcome the A350! MIA-NRT, MIA-ICN, MIA-PEK are a lot shorter than LAX-SIN and NYC-SIN which are on tap to be restarted by SQ. Also, MIA-HKG is just slightly longer than LAX-SIN but again a lot shorter than NYC-SIN. A few airlines in these regions have ordered them.

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

BAbout three years ago, Air Berlin pulled out of all Non-one World hub cities in North America. The service was a summer seasonal service only.

Perhaps this made sense for the states where there are oneworld hubs, but pulling out of whole Canada seems a bit strange as nobody in their right mind will be flying from Germany via the US to Canada. So they basically dropped the whole country.

Maybe this was a good thing for operators like Icelandair to be able to step up? On that note, do you think that Aer Lingus with their increasing North American operations might be interested in bridging Western Canadian cities (YVR, YYC, YEG) to Europe via Dublin? They have pretty much the same geographical advantage as Icelandair has...

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And welcome the A350! MIA-NRT, MIA-ICN, MIA-PEK are a lot shorter than LAX-SIN and NYC-SIN which are on tap to be restarted by SQ. Also, MIA-HKG is just slightly longer than LAX-SIN but again a lot shorter than NYC-SIN. A few airlines in these regions have ordered them.

It's hard to comprehend that LAX-SIN is a longer route than MIA-HKG, but I guess it is. The latter must be a very northern route...

Cool to hear that SQ might be bringing back those destinations (those 15+ hour routes are suffering), although I wouldn't mind them making a layover at YVR on their way to New York and back. That might actually bea very profitable move on their side, in the same fashion as Cathay Pacific is doing on their YVR route?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Henbo

"the fact we are hiring people who speak Portuguese, Italian, German, Mandarin and Cantonese gives people a pretty good guess at where we’re going next"

http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/asia+...s+asia/11750237/story.html#ixzz41sS5FTy6

I know YYZ already has service to Rio, and Sao Paulo (and Lisbon), but is it feasible that WestJet could be planning service to Brazil?

Here is most important quote from the Vancouver Sun article:

As part of the airline’s 20th anniversary, WestJet CEO Gregg Saretsky has been making the rounds of Canadian media outlets in recent weeks....

I graduated high school at the tail end of the 90s recession period. the time when Reality Bites, Clerks, and Breakfast Club were documentaries on the economic reality for recent grads. However the grad speeches were still inspirational "look at how great the future holds". No one gave the speech about no prospects for gainful employment, bleak future, etc.

The Van Sun piece, like the other articles in Calgary Herald, Globe and Mail; are meant to be reflective on past successes and aspire to greatness in the future. However it also appears the Van Sun author was most interested in getting specific details about near term growth, which is unrealistic expectation when interviewing a Westjet CEO.

In the early days, the marketing and strategy department was known as the "Department of Planning and Paranoia" by the CEO. The paranoia aspect is as engrained into WS culture as corny jokes about "there maybe 50 ways to leave your lover, but there are only six ways off this airplane".

Yes WS is looking for Mandarin and Cantonese speaking employees, but that is first and foremost to address the inbound interline and codeshare traffic with only a minor thought to future international expansion.

Similarly South America is out of the question right now because of the economic recession in that part of the world is depressing traffic more than $30/bbl oil to the YEG and YYC markets.

Take a look at the Calgary Herald article on WS 20th anniversary:
http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-...o-and-crew-navigate-headwinds-in-alberta

This quote is especially telling:

On the eve of WestJet’s 20th anniversary, Saretsky notes the company has been holding sessions with employees called Ignite 20 to celebrate the past, but also look toward the future — two decades ahead, to be specific.

“It’s a bit of a call to action. We’re going to war … I need all 12,000 to be battling it out every day,” says Saretsky, who replaced former CEO Sean Durfy in 2010.

Ignite 2020 is a long term inspirational strategy, but its also not a mid term Action Plan for growth. Considering how long it took to get the current 763 examples running, I would expect that any wide body air frame growth is 12-18 months away. short term growth in the summer 2017 schedule will come at the expense of summer 2016 routes that failed to meet expectations.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Cool to hear that SQ might be bringing back those destinations (those 15+ hour routes are suffering), although I wouldn't mind them making a layover at YVR on their way to New York and back. That might actually bea very profitable move on their side, in the same fashion as Cathay Pacific is doing on their YVR route?

SQ bringing back NYC (being vague as unsure if it will be EWR or JFK) and LAX are pretty much a sure thing.

Hmmmmm.... How about SQ launch SIN-YVR-MIA!?

It's only an extra 220 miles detour.

[vanlaw]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Yeah, the original opening date for BBI (Berlin-Brandenburg International, I think that is still the name and not BER?) was indeed 2012. I didn't read your link, but I remember reading that they installed some oversize A/C equipment on the roof and have since been afraid of the structure not being able to hold them, etc. crazy stuff.

BBI is the IATA code for an airport in India. BER is the IATA for Brandenberg, if it ever opens. The entire fire suppression system didn't work properly. The proposed solution was to have 800 "fire watchers" stand on tall platforms to look for smoke. That obviously didn't go over well. Since then its been discovered that basically the whole airport is f'd, walls not strong enough etc. But none of it can be blamed on corruption..not in Germany

Originally Posted by Klazu

On the other hand Hamburg is having an even more embarrassing project called Elbphilharmonie. That was supposed to be completed six years ago...

...designed by Herzog & de Meuron, budgeted to come in at 77M Euros, now at least 10x that. Let's see how the new Vancouver Art Gallery pans out...

[SFUVancouver]

Cage, thanks for the thoughtful commentary about WestJet. I could see them taking the plunge on putting some additional "long & thin" (for WestJet) long-haul flights into service and, perhaps, even test the waters for their next round of aircraft buying with some leased modern wide-bodies, like A333s or potentially even 788s. However, but I think that it is more likely that they will consolidate what they have now and run their 767s into the ground and then adopt a single wide-body fleet, perhaps based on A333s that are being swapped out by carriers for A330neos. To the best of my knowledge, WestJet is steadily and quietly buying new 738s from Boeing to modernize and expand the fleet, but buying new wide-bodies is a whole other ballgame and the risk of straying from a lean one or two-model fleet is not to be taken likely.

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Hmmmmm.... How about SQ launch SIN-YVR-MIA!?

I am serious. What do they have to lose there? CX is just as premium of an airline and they make a stop in YVR on their way to New York and back. SQ used to fly here and might consider returning, so they could hit two birds with one stone, especially on the MIA route.

If they plan on re-launching the New York route and will not be flying it in all business class configuration as previously, YVR might make sense. Or perhaps Toronto, I don't know.

Originally Posted by vanlaw

BBI is the IATA code for an airport in India. BER is the IATA for Brandenberg, if it ever opens.

You are right.

"During much of the planning and construction phase, the new airport was known as Berlin Brandenburg International Airport, abbreviated BBI. When the planned and missed opening date of 2 June 2012 drew nearer, the FBB launched a marketing campaign introducing the BER branding, reflecting the new airport code."

Originally Posted by vanlaw

But none of it can be blamed on corruption..not in Germany

Yeah, it's the same kind of of BS as Finland being the least corrupted country in the world. Oh, how wrong those studies are. In Finland it's just not called corruption but a "good brother system" or "knowing a guy"...

[Klazu]

Aviation related: on my recent trip I was reading WSJ and was surprised to learn that apparently the A330 series is currently a best-seller for Airbus and demand for them is much larger than Airbus is able to respond to. That was somehow surprising to me, as I have considered A330 being an older plane, but then again I took note how many A330's there were on HKG and TPE tarmacs.

A340's seem to be getting fewer and fewer quickly and A350's are slow to make an appearance.

What is also a very exciting plane going forward will be the new Boeing 777X. Damn, that plane looks just sweet and Boeing seems to be leading the game with Airbus playing constantly catch with them.

[Orcair]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Aviation related: on my recent trip I was reading WSJ and was surprised to learn that apparently the A330 series is currently a best-seller for Airbus and demand for them is much larger than Airbus is able to respond to. That was somehow surprising to me, as I have considered A330 being an older plane, but then again I did take now how many A330's there were on HKG and TPE tarmac.

A340's seem to be getting fewer and fewer quickly and A350's are slow to make an appearance.

What is also a very exciting plane going forward will be the new Boeing 777X. Damn, that plane looks just sweet and Boeing seems to be leading the game with Airbus playing constantly catch with them.

The 330 has been outselling the 787 because of the cost margin - Airbus simply can discount a fully paid-off manufacturing line 330 much more than Boeing who is currently having cost problems with the 787. The 350s are really starting to ramp up which is good news, especially now that Singapore has their first 359 as of this week!

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

They're going to need to acquire some new planes if they plan on these markets, and given their current share nose dive that may be somewhat optimistic.

Isn't their current share price linked to the oil fields? If so, it might be a good time for WJ to make a YVR a stronger hub city for them. I tend to see WJ as a company better suited for Vancouver than Calgary, anyhow. Their Southwest-style low-cost model jives well with YVR, which has more O/D than Calgary.

YYC has to have more business travel than YVR and that's the traffic that's taking a hit with the price of oil.

Anyhow, Berlin's airport woes aside, Berlin as a destination would be a great win. Additionally, YVR–BER is perfect range-wise for a 763. It's a focus city for Air Berlin and with the right agreement with Air Berlin, WJ could potentially fill a gap and provide YVR with some great 1-stop options in Europe (
( BER is the code for Berlin, all airports )

Air Berlin destinations: