PHILADELPHIA | Highrise Development Thread IX

[1487]

Originally Posted by Londonee

I was more commenting on her poor choice of words: "fled the city."

I agree with your broader premise which kind of reinforces my point that she was writing this purely so one could ONLY form a negative opinion from the info provided.

I don't know how much I blame her, she was merely writing about the CCD report and their theme and POV was pretty clear. Each time they release a report like this they are essentially predicting the good times are going to end SOON. But the day of reckoning seems to get pushed out indefinitely. Vacancy rates are low, rents are up and population growth continues, but they are warning it's going to be much worse someday in the future. Everything Ive seen about the supply and demand in Philly suggest that the amount of construction here is modest in relation to overall population. Eventually rent increases will stop and landlords will be under pressure to compete due to new product, but that is only natural as supply and demand balance out. I don't think slowing rent increases or a slight uptick in vacancy is even a bad thing- at least not for renters.

[MikeNigh]

Originally Posted by 1487

Everything Ive seen about the supply and demand in Philly suggest that the amount of construction here is modest in relation to overall population.

I would say also considering the rest of america is booming what philly is doing now is modest for it's size / popularity. Philly definitely needs to get another major company in the city though. Would be cool if they could get the SAP HQ to move downtown.

[jsbrook]

I agree that we need another big corporation or two and that tax policies and other policies need to be amended STAT to be more friendly to business. Yes, there is a preferential bleed to the suburbs (both small and bigger businesses) that needn't happen. I know that from personal experience.

But what city doesn't have a sizable portion of population leave for the suburbs to raise families. That and the school issue, which is a big driver of it, is not unique to Philly. It exists in pretty much every city. If we can keep college graduates and keep empty nesters interested in returning to the city, that's a big part of the battle. And we're leagues above where we were on those fronts just a few short years ago.

[1487]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

I agree that we need another big corporation or two and that tax policies and other policies need to be amended STAT to be more friendly to business. Yes, there is a preferential bleed to the suburbs (both small and bigger businesses) that needn't happen. I know that from personal experience.

But what city doesn't have a sizable portion of population leave for the suburbs to raise families. That and the school issue, which is a big driver of it, is not unique to Philly. It exists in pretty much every city. If we can keep college graduates and keep empty nesters interested in returning to the city, that's a big part of the battle. And we're leagues above where we were on those fronts just a few short years ago.

yes I think everyone can agree that "world class schools" in an urban area with high poverty rates sounds great. It's sort of like world peace- everyone is for it so I'm not sure why CCD needs to keep restating the obvious. This is an issue that is being face in large cities throughout the country. Economic and racial segregation of schools isn't ideal in any city in any part of this country. The results are predictable, especially when funding and instability are big issues.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by MikeNigh

Would be cool if they could get the SAP HQ to move downtown.

What, you don't think young, talented, next gen coders are beating down the doors to work here https://www.google.com/maps/contrib/1054...Fw203-h100-p-k-no%2F!7i640!8i454!6m1!1e1?

[Cro Burnham]

Originally Posted by 1487

yes I think everyone can agree that "world class schools" in an urban area with high poverty rates sounds great. It's sort of like world peace- everyone is for it so I'm not sure why CCD needs to keep restating the obvious. This is an issue that is being face in large cities throughout the country. Economic and racial segregation of schools isn't ideal in any city in any part of this country. The results are predictable, especially when funding and instability are big issues.

Man, you are on a roll, preaching serious common sense the last several posts. What's happening in a world where you and I agree on stuff?

[1487]

Originally Posted by Cro Burnham

Man, you are on a roll, preaching serious common sense the last several posts. What's happening in a world where you and I agree on stuff?

It shows you have more sense than I thought. I haven't changed, but some people get caught up on particular statements because it's so different from what everyone is saying. As you've noticed I'm not one to formulate opinions based on what the masses are saying or peer pressure. Once you get off your soapbox you'll will find I usually make sense.

[summersm343]

Broad and Washington - new renderings and information

34 floors and 426 feet tall. A second 11 story residential tower. Ground floor retail and rooftop retail/residential village.

Posted here:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=214349

[Cro Burnham]

Originally Posted by 1487

It shows you have more sense than I thought.

Thanks, man.

[summersm343]

Posted a ton of photo updates today. Enjoy!

[boxbot]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Posted a ton of photo updates today. Enjoy!

Thanks for all the updates, Summers! You must have taken a long lunch.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Cro Burnham

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/...onstruction-center-city-crane-watch.html

PBJ is putting this map out, with data sourced by CCD. It is very incomplete as you will see: Museum Towers, 205 Race, Broad & Callowhill, The National, among many other large projects, are missing. So go to town:



PBJ is using a disappointingly top-down web 1.0 approach to doing the map. You'd have thought they'd have heard of concepts like crowd sourcing, etc., but we all know the local Philly business scene is a bit old fashioned, including the PBJ, so it's not surprising I guess. But as of now, the map is kind of useless given its inaccuracies.

Hopefully, the map will become more interactive and enable people - like SSP people here (hands down the people with the most comprehensive and up-to-date knowledge of what projects are going on around town vs. a CCD staffer who apparently is seemingly not fully abreast of what is going on) - to contribute to make sure the map is useful.

Summers, I nominate you to contact kostelni and offer your services to solicit updates and maintain the map.

I saw that haha. I noticed that multiple large projects are missing, and several are in the wrong spot on the map.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Londonee

From Kostelni's article: "...21,000 people from the region moved into the city while 28,000 people who were living in Philadelphia fled to the suburbs..."

Honestly, was her editor asleep when they read this? Primary definition of "fled" from Merriam-Webster = ":to run away often from danger or evil." I'm actually somewhat offended at the statement and context.

This article was based off of the publication released by the Center City District. Obviously the local wonderful media outlets of Philadelphia gobbled that shit up. It was a little bit of a scare tactic sent out by Paul Levy of the Center City district. The point is to scare politicians in the city and state into passing more business friendly taxes.

While there may be a little truth to it, I don't think there is a lot to worry about. The current apartment vacancy rate for apartments is 2.8%. That is the lowest vacancy rate for apartments in the country.

Actual analysts predict that the vacancy rate could tick up to 4% by 2020, but even that is extremely low, as most Southern cities are 7-8% vacancies or higher and yet they're still building like gangbusters in those cities.

[1487]

Originally Posted by summersm343

This article was based off of the publication released by the Center City District. Obviously the local wonderful media outlets of Philadelphia gobbled that shit up. It was a little bit of a scare tactic sent out by Paul Levy of the Center City district. The point is to scare politicians in the city and state into passing more business friendly taxes.

While there may be a little truth to it, I don't think there is a lot to worry about. The current apartment vacancy rate for apartments is 2.8%. That is the lowest vacancy rate for apartments in the country.

Actual analysts predict that the vacancy rate could tick up to 4% by 2020, but even that is extremely low, as most Southern cities are 7-8% vacancies or higher and yet they're still building like gangbusters in those cities.

I read through the document to see if I could expose the holes in their data. One thing I noted, when they mention Philly lagging the suburbs and national averages in job growth they specifically said PRIVATE SECTOR job growth which basically eliminates any jobs related to hospitals, universities and nonprofits. Obviously Philly is far more dependent on those sectors than its suburbs and those sectors are key to overall job numbers in the city. There was no mention of the unemployment rate (surely a sign of local economic strength) in the report. They also had charts showing how bad Philly had done between 1970 to 2015 or 1990-2014. I think most can agree that Philly didn't stabilize until the 90s and it likely didn't start to grow again until the first decade of this century. Going back to 1970 isn't really indicative of how things have gone over the last decade. As I already noted their tracking of influx vs move outs was focused on this region and not on total figures which basically means folks that moved to Philly from outside the area weren't counted.

the CCD report was reposted on every local site related to business or development. Then the CCD posted its own links to the 3rd party stories about THEIR report.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by 1487

I read through the document to see if I could expose the holes in their data. One thing I noted, when they mention Philly lagging the suburbs and national averages in job growth they specifically said PRIVATE SECTOR job growth which basically eliminates any jobs related to hospitals, universities and nonprofits. Obviously Philly is far more dependent on those sectors than its suburbs and those sectors are key to overall job numbers in the city. There was no mention of the unemployment rate (surely a sign of local economic strength) in the report. They also had charts showing how bad Philly had done between 1970 to 2015 or 1990-2014. I think most can agree that Philly didn't stabilize until the 90s and it likely didn't start to grow again until the first decade of this century. Going back to 1970 isn't really indicative of how things have gone over the last decade. As I already noted their tracking of influx vs move outs was focused on this region and not on total figures which basically means folks that moved to Philly from outside the area weren't counted.

the CCD report was reposted on every local site related to business or development. Then the CCD posted its own links to the 3rd party stories about THEIR report.

It worked exactly how they wanted it to work. Now the business leaders of Philadelphia see this, and pressure the city and politicians to do something regarding business taxes.

It really was an ingenious move, but coming from myself who works in the industry, there is maybe a little to worry about in the future if things don't change, but nothing huge to worry about within the next decade.

[Cro Burnham]

Originally Posted by summersm343

While there may be a little truth to it, I don't think there is a lot to worry about.

I think the key point is that if the politicians see that "Hey we can keep doing the junk that we've been doing for 40 years, and yet there will still be enough growth to support our nasty habit, then, hell we don't need to change shit". And then, people like Blackwell, Clarke, WW Goode Jr, Brady, Dougherty, might be probably are even thinking: "hmmm, this growth is good, we can cover up alot of pig feeding at the trough with it . . . . let's feed more pigs!".

The fire needs to be lit constantly under their asses to keep them from thinking this way. As long as we have a political class dominated by the lunkheads we have in there in this city, there is a perpetual danger of gradually sliding the way of a Baltimore, a Cleveland, even a *Chicken Little Alert* Detroit.

So I guess I support Levy's efforts, even if it verges into scare-mongering. He's really pulling all the stops to prevent complacency in the face of politicians whose basic instinct is to maintain power by expanding the pig through for their constituents.

I think Kenney brings alot of baggage to his position and is torn between reform and taking care of his longtime do-nothing cronies. It is by no means clear that he has taken to heart that we need to turn around this city in part by seriously reducing largesse to unions, public employees, constituents and political flunkies. Levy is probably very worried about that. We all should be.

[1487]

Originally Posted by summersm343

It worked exactly how they wanted it to work. Now the business leaders of Philadelphia see this, and pressure the city and politicians to do something regarding business taxes.

It really was an ingenious move, but coming from myself who works in the industry, there is maybe a little to worry about in the future if things don't change, but nothing huge to worry about within the next decade.

I think its safe to say they are preaching to the choir. Meanwhile Inga has an article today about how CCD has failed to deliver on the art installation at Dilworth. I think CCD needs to refocus on what it does best. It's getting a little too ambitious for my tastes with regards to trying to steer debates on tax policy and other things. And yet I've seen human waste on CC sidewalks and graffiti on buildings downtown. When you get into mission creep it's hard to actually maintain your focus on your ACTUAL mission. They wanted responsibility for running the Dilworth project in spite of having no experience managing such a large capital project. It was over budget, late and there were many issues unresolved when the park was completed. I'm glad Inga followed up on the art display that has never materialized and that CCD has barely mentioned in 2 years after announcing it to great fanfare.

[1487]

Originally Posted by Cro Burnham

I think the key point is that if the politicians see that "Hey we can keep doing the junk that we've been doing for 40 years, and yet there will still be enough growth to support our nasty habit, then, hell we don't need to change shit". And then, people like Blackwell, Clarke, WW Goode Jr, Brady, Dougherty, might be probably are even thinking: "hmmm, this growth is good, we can cover up alot of pig feeding at the trough with it . . . . let's feed more pigs!".

The fire needs to be lit constantly under their asses to keep them from thinking this way. As long as we have a political class dominated by the lunkheads we have in there in this city, there is a perpetual danger of gradually sliding the way of a Baltimore, a Cleveland, even a *Chicken Little Alert* Detroit.

So I guess I support Levy's efforts, even if it verges into scare-mongering. He's really pulling all the stops to prevent complacency in the face of politicians whose basic instinct is to maintain power by expanding the pig through for their constituents.

I think Kenney brings alot of baggage to his position and is torn between reform and taking care of his longtime do-nothing cronies. It is by no means clear that he has taken to heart that we need to turn around this city in part by seriously reducing largesse to unions, public employees, constituents and political flunkies. Levy is probably very worried about that. We all should be.

You are painting with a broad brush and aligning people that don't necessarily have the same interests. Johnny Doc is pro construction and thus would be in favor of any policy changes that would lead to more union jobs. His members dont live in the city and thus could care less about the budgetary concerns associated with reduced revenues. They are only focused on more union jobs for white guys living in Jersey. Brady has no power over local taxation policy and has minimal skin in the game on that issue. Levy has crafted an image for himself in which he gets a ton of credit for not actually doing much. I recall Philly mag had a glowing article on him several years ago in which they indicated he was like a co-mayor and would be a good potential mayor in the future. All nonsense. When you are an outsider you can take a simplistic view of things and advocate for one issue and one set of constituents. Being the mayor is much more complex and there many competing interests you have to balance. Which is why Levy would never be stupid enough to run for office and become accountable to the people. Generating policy papers is much easier work- pays better too.

[Cro Burnham]

Originally Posted by 1487

You are painting with a broad brush and aligning people that don't necessarily have the same interests. Johnny Doc is pro construction and thus would be in favor of any policy changes that would lead to more union jobs. His members dont live in the city and thus could care less about the budgetary concerns associated with reduced revenues. They are only focused on more union jobs for white guys living in Jersey. Brady has no power over local taxation policy and has minimal skin in the game on that issue.

Sometimes it seems you contradict purely for the sake of it.

The forest does exist, despite the individuality of the trees. You vastly oversimplify and assume politicians compartmentalize their motivations for a single constituency.

Doc is ultimately a leech like the others: he's for growth as long as it bloats the payrolls of unions in Philly . . . . all public employee and building trade unions, not just the electricians residing in Burlco and Gloucester. His base is still Pennsport, a hotbed of patronage. Lots of people there are on the public/patronage payrolls. Wake me up in a 100 years when he starts fighting to reform the public worker pensions or archaic, patronage-friendly City Charter provisions. Not in his general interest to do so. He benefits from a generally corrupt system and, like Clarke or Blackwell, views general reform anywhere within City limits as a threat.

Bob Brady controls City-wide patronage and has a powerful influence over all Democrats in the city, regardless of his technical role as a US Rep. So his interests are very much taken into account when City policy is made. Fighting threats to City patronage is an essential element of his portfolio.

Levy has crafted an image for himself in which he gets a ton of credit for not actually doing much. I recall Philly mag had a glowing article on him several years ago in which they indicated he was like a co-mayor and would be a good potential mayor in the future. All nonsense . . . . . .

I agree he would be a weak and unlikely mayoral candidate. He's not warm and fuzzy, and his organizational management skills are weak too, from what I have heard.

But I think you really dislike him because he advocated for an anti-Wendy's zoning overlay at Market East.

[1487]

Originally Posted by Cro Burnham

Sometimes it seems you contradict purely for the sake of it.

The forest does exist, despite the individuality of the trees. You vastly oversimplify and assume politicians compartmentalize their motivations for a single constituency.

Doc is ultimately a leech like the others: he's for growth as long as it bloats the payrolls of unions in Philly . . . . all public employee and building trade unions, not just the electricians residing in Burlco and Gloucester. His base is still Pennsport, a hotbed of patronage. Lots of people there are on the public/patronage payrolls. Wake me up in a 100 years when he starts fighting to reform the public worker pensions or archaic, patronage-friendly City Charter provisions. Not in his general interest to do so. He benefits from a generally corrupt system and, like Clarke or Blackwell, views general reform anywhere within City limits as a threat.

Bob Brady controls City-wide patronage and has a powerful influence over all Democrats in the city, regardless of his technical role as a US Rep. So his interests are very much taken into account when City policy is made. Fighting threats to City patronage is an essential element of his portfolio.



I agree he would be a weak and unlikely mayoral candidate. He's not warm and fuzzy, and his organizational management skills are weak too, from what I have heard.

But I think you really dislike him because he advocated for an anti-Wendy's zoning overlay at Market East.

There are very few patronage jobs left in the City's actual government. been that way since 1951. I know it doesn't sound good or fit your narrative, but it's reality. Unions want more jobs for members and ultimately that means Johnny Doc has no incentive to push back against pro-growth tax policy. I'm pretty sure he supports this coalition pushing for the constitutional change that would allow varying rates for commercial vs residential real estate. I'm talking about reality, not half baked theories based on personal biases.

Let me know when you can find an instance of Brady taking a strong position on any city regulations that are directly related to development or tax policy. His interests are focused on the local Dem machine and its internal workings and unity. He rarely wades into REAL policy debates. I'm agnostic on Brady but I don't accept your simplistic view that virtually ever party who has been in the City longer than this current crop of CC millenials is incompetent, corrupt and wholly committed to halting any progress in Philadelphia. A simple view of the world is always the easiest way to comprehend what's going on- doesn't make it right. Levy has been in his position for 20+ years- he is "old Philadelphia" if you ask me. He and his organization still pose arguments as if it's 1980 and the average Philadelphian is dreaming about the day they can go buy a single family house on 1/2 acre with a $7,000 property tax bill. Maybe that was the case 30-40 years ago, but people have different priorities and interests now.