The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

Thanks pierre.

So, in relative terms Moncton remains the fastest growing city in Atlantic Canada, but in terms of absolute population growth we are outpaced by both Halifax and St. John's.

It seems to be taking forever for us to climb above 150,000.

[Taeolas]

It shouldn't be much longer now; Judging from those numbers, Moncton should break 150k either this year, or more likely 2017; 2018 on the outside.

[q12]

Here is the national ranking:

Annual population estimates by census metropolitan area, July 1, 2015


As of February 2016, Halifax should have cracked 420,000

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It shouldn't be much longer now; Judging from those numbers, Moncton should break 150k either this year, or more likely 2017; 2018 on the outside.

At the current rate of growth, by March 2017 I'd say.

Or earlier, depending on how many Syrian refugees we get (maybe as many as 450).

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

At the current rate of growth, by March 2017 I'd say.

Or earlier, depending on how many Syrian refugees we get (maybe as many as 450).

I heard this morning it could be as many as 750.

The bigger question, numbers-wise with regards to the refugees is not how many come in but rather how many stay permanently.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

CMA Population Estimates

CMA..............2013........2014........2015.....Change........%
Halifax.......409,906.....413,554.....417,847......4,293....+1.04
Moncton.......144,415.....146,092.....147,968......1,876....+1.28
Saint John....128,003.....127,460.....126,912.......-548....-0.43
St John's.....209,069.....212,257.....214,285......2,028....+0.96

Change & change % are from 2014 to 2015.

CSD..............2011........2013........2015.....Change........%.....Largest Municipality
Westmorland.......145,715.......149,445........152,796......+7,081........4.86%.....Moncton
York................98,202........100,208........101,915......+3,713........3.78%.....Fredericton
Saint John.........77,119.......76,631.......75,796.....-1,323........-1.72%.....Saint John
Gloucester..........77,850........76,533........75,043......-2,087........-3.61%.....Bathurst
Kings..............70,005........69,697........69,244......-761........-1.09%.....Quispamsis
Northumberland.....48,411........47,726........46,694......-1,717........-3.55%.....Miramichi
Madawaska........33,491........33,110.......32,726......-765........-2.28%.....Edmundston
Restigouche.........32,594........31,886........31,307......-1,287........-3.95%.....Campbellton
Kent...............30,858........30,456........30,211......-647........-2.10%.....Bouctouche
Albert..............28,983........29,167........29,324......+341........1.18%.....Riverview
Sunbury............27,530........27,754........27,797......+267........0.97%.....Oromocto
Carleton............27,128........26,784........26,145......-983........-3.62%.....Woodstock
Charlotte...........26,622........26,219........25,642......-980........-3.68%.....St. Stephen
Victoria.........19,957........19,335........18,816......-1,141........-5.72%....Grand Falls
Queens............11,065........10,767........10,415......-650........-5.87%.....Minto
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26

Ready for this?

CSD.......................1991..........2001......2015est......Change%
Westmorland....114,745.....124,668.....152,796.....33.16%
York.........82,326.....87,212.....101,915.....23.79%
Saint John.....81,462.....76,407.....75,796.....-6.96%
Gloucester.....87,613.....82,929.....75,043.....-14.35%
Kings........62,122.....64,208.....69,244.....11.46%
Northumberland.52,983.....50,817.....46,694.....-11.87%
Madawaska.....36,554.....35,611.....32,726.....-10.47%
Restigouche....39,248.....36,134.....31,307.....-20.23%
Kent.........31,694.....31,383.....30,211.....-4.68%
Albert........25,640.....26,749.....29,324.....14.37%
Sunbury.......23,575.....25,776.....27,797.....17.91%
Carleton.......26,026.....27,184.....26,145.....0.46%
Charlotte.......26,607.....27,366.....25,642.....-3.63%
Victoria.......20,786.....21,172.....18,816.....-9.48%
Queens........12,519.....11,862.....10,415.....-16.81%

Gloucester plummets below York and Saint John in 24 years and should be passed by Kings (or fall below it) relatively soon. Similar scenario for Restigouche and Kent v Albert counties.

Restigouche, Gloucester, and Queens, the three fastest shrinking areas in population, also have the three highest median ages, which means that these decreases are going to gain more momentum if things aren't done to reverse them soon. We'll soon be seeing the emptying out of many rural areas in the province.

[MonctonRad]

So, in other words, the only places in the province which are actually growing are metro Moncton and greater Fredericton.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So, in other words, the only places in the province which are actually growing are metro Moncton and greater Fredericton.

Moncton and suburbs, Fredericton and suburbs, and Saint John's suburbs (but not the City).

I've actually been crunching population numbers a lot the past few weeks so I can churn out a lot of info if needed, but other areas like Sackville, Woodstock, and Sussex are seeing modest growth in the long-term.

If you want to look at it this way: In 1991, NB's North (Gloucester, Restigouche, Northumberland, Madawaska) accounted for 216,398....in 2015 that number shrank to 185,770, a raw loss of 30,628.

NB North as a % of Provincial population:
1991 29.89%
2015 24.64%

NB as a Province increased by 4.14% between 1991 to 2015 despite the North descreasing by -14.15% during that same time. 24 years ago the North accounted for nearly 1 in 3 NBers, and in 2015 accounts for less than 1 in 4.

[q12]

2015 Atlantic Provinces: 2,371,076



Basically Halifax, Charlottetown, Fredericton, Moncton and St. John's are the only significant regions that are growing in Atlantic Canada.

New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador are heading in a trend of population decline, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. are flat or growing slightly.

[Taeolas]

What's a bit frustrating is how close to the 1 million mark Nova Scotia is. I know it's a psychological number, but it would be good to see them break through it. (As I thought about in the 1 million thread down below).

The NS government should be pushing to reach that number; incentivise immigration from the rest of Canada and beyond. A solid "Million by 2040" campaign or similar would probably do wonders for the province. (by 2030 would need 3k/year, which is probably unattainable; 2040 would need them to hit 2k/year, which they did in the early 2000's so it should be doable.

[someone123]

I don't think 3,000 per year is unattainable for NS but it would require more immigration and more of a focus on urban development. The province has put a lot of energy into trying to slow the decline of rural areas. That may be admirable but it hasn't proven to be an effective strategy.

I think there is some truth to the idea that simply having demographic growth in Halifax and nearby parts of the province would reduce per capita costs, thereby making the province more viable over the long term. This has been happening but it often seems to happen in spite of, not because of, the provincial government.

Back in the 50's-70's a few provinces like Quebec apparently had explicitly pro-urban economic development policies. Even back then, some provinces were more urbanized than the Maritimes are today. The urbanization itself is what has driven economic growth and a rising standard of living in many places around the world.

As an aside, growth in the cities around Atlantic Canada has been much higher than what was anticipated in past decades and weaker regions have been declining in terms of demographic weight. As a result I wonder if many of those models aren't overly pessimistic about the demographic future of the region.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

Back in the 50's-70's a few provinces like Quebec apparently had explicitly pro-urban economic development policies. Even back then, some provinces were more urbanized than the Maritimes are today. The urbanization itself is what has driven economic growth and a rising standard of living in many places around the world.

Even today NB, and to a lesser extent NFLD, NS, PEI, are well behind provinces like Ontario and QC in terms of urban/rural divide. This difference won't be made up until the rural areas, which are almost always overwhelmingly older, are...emptied.

Originally Posted by someone123

As an aside, growth in the cities around Atlantic Canada has been much higher than what was anticipated in past decades and weaker regions have been declining in terms of demographic weight. As a result I wonder if many of those models aren't overly pessimistic about the demographic future of the region.

Depends on which models you're referring to. In instances like what i've listed about some NB counties have lost 15/20% of their population in the past 25 years. It can be anticipated that this will continue for the next few decades. However, the growth in the suburban areas is not purely younger people, and it is still evident that despite tremendous growth in the suburbs their average and median ages are still increasing at similar rates, albeit at slightly lower levels. It almost implies that much of the population is shifting from rural to urban, even if this population is older.

Halifax and St.John's are able to have fairly vibrant and large younger (30 and under) populations, which are fairly evident. NB doesn't really have a base for this as it lacks a true urban centre for all things young and progressive and hipster.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Depends on which models you're referring to. In instances like what i've listed about some NB counties have lost 15/20% of their population in the past 25 years. It can be anticipated that this will continue for the next few decades. However, the growth in the suburban areas is not purely younger people, and it is still evident that despite tremendous growth in the suburbs their average and median ages are still increasing at similar rates, albeit at slightly lower levels. It almost implies that much of the population is shifting from rural to urban, even if this population is older.

You certainly see it around Moncton. There are lots of older folks moving down from the north to be near their children and grandchildren in retirement.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Halifax and St.John's are able to have fairly vibrant and large younger (30 and under) populations, which are fairly evident. NB doesn't really have a base for this as it lacks a true urban centre for all things young and progressive and hipster.

Moncton is protected to a degree because it is the "capital" of Acadie. Many UdeM graduates stay in the city after graduation because Moncton is the zenith of Acadian culture in the region. There's even a significant number of anglophones who don't leave just because there is actually a lot to do in SE New Brunswick (especially in the summertime) and the area has a fairly vibrant economy. I'm not saying that 20-somethings don't go elsewhere to seek their fortune, it's just that the drift around here is not so evident as it is in other less prosperous parts of the province.

[L'homard]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You certainly see it around Moncton. There are lots of older folks moving down from the north to be near their children and grandchildren in retirement.

This is well documented in Dieppe, for example, where the parents are now following their children to the city from the northeast. I don't know if it's the same in Moncton but cannot imagine that it is any different.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by L'homard

This is well documented in Dieppe, for example, where the parents are now following their children to the city from the northeast. I don't know if it's the same in Moncton but cannot imagine that it is any different.

It's definitely happening with my family and friends who are based in NB.

They move to the Moncton area (often Dieppe of course) in order to be closer to grandkids, and also health care services.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

I heard this morning it could be as many as 750. The bigger question, numbers-wise with regards to the refugees is not how many come in but rather how many stay permanently.

I was on a flight from Montreal to Moncton last night and there were probably 3 Syrian refugee families on the flight... probably 15-20 people. I assume they were given the translators/liaisons who saw them off and met them and the federal luggage bundles they were picking up at the baggage claim. Couldn't help me smile a bit. Moncton needs the diversity and... also... couldn't wait to see them see the deeper snow.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by L'homard

This is well documented in Dieppe, for example, where the parents are now following their children to the city from the northeast. I don't know if it's the same in Moncton but cannot imagine that it is any different.

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's definitely happening with my family and friends who are based in NB.

They move to the Moncton area (often Dieppe of course) in order to be closer to grandkids, and also health care services.

Makes sense. When I was calculating age changes in municipalities NB's fastest growing large municipality, Dieppe's 65+ age-range was still consistent with its growth, meaning that to retain their 38% 65+ range they would have to be importing a lot of 65+ people in their growth.

As long as people are urbanizing and making it easier for the government to service them it's all good, despite the fact that these persons are temporary in the long-term, as difficult as it is to say.

[pierremoncton]

Something to note that was reported by Acadie Nouvelle: the Moncton CMA's population (147,968 - July 2015) has surpassed PEI's population as a whole (146,679 - October 2015).

http://www.acadienouvelle.com/actualites/2016/02/11/le-grand-moncton-plus-populeux-que-li-p-e/

I think it's fair to predict that Moncton will next surpass Saguenay (159,958), maybe as early as the 2021 census. Like Sudbury and Thunder Bay, which also both have stagnant & aging populations, I assume all three are in the same boat largely due to the fact that they're isolated communities.

Come to think of it, Saint John is isolated to a certain extent as well, being "out of the way" (not accessible from the TCH). I wonder what kind of impact the East-West Corridor would have. Thoughts?

[mylesmalley]

Guelph too.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Something to note that was reported by Acadie Nouvelle: the Moncton CMA's population (147,968 - July 2015) has surpassed PEI's population as a whole (146,679 - October 2015).

http://www.acadienouvelle.com/actualites/2016/02/11/le-grand-moncton-plus-populeux-que-li-p-e/

I think it's fair to predict that Moncton will next surpass Saguenay (159,958), maybe as early as the 2021 census. Like Sudbury and Thunder Bay, which also both have stagnant & aging populations, I assume all three are in the same boat largely due to the fact that they're isolated communities.

Halifax passed Niagara-St.Catharines this round, as well, which is a decent hurdle. It should hold the 12 spot for a while unless something shocking happens.

With Saguenay stuck at 159K, Guelph steadily creeping up, Sudbury falling, Trois-Rivieres steadily creeping up it's possible that Moncton could pass all of them by 2021. Kingston is the next largest CMA with strong growth in the past five years.

Come to think of it, Saint John is isolated to a certain extent as well, being "out of the way" (not accessible from the TCH). I wonder what kind of impact the East-West Corridor would have. Thoughts?

Halifax isn't accessible from the TCH and that doesn't hinder its growth.
The East-West Corridor, if you're referring to the Trans-Maine Highway Project, has been turfed for nearly four years now.