Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuckerman
I believe that we have come to the end of the significant department store in American downtowns and we should just regard them as an interesting piece of our history.
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There are five new department stores being built in Manhattan alone- a Neiman Marcus, a Barneys, a Saks Fifth Avenue and two Nordstroms. The existing dozen or so department stores are doing very well and many are expanding. Macys is doing a half-billion renovation of its flagship, and Bloomingdales, Saks, and Bergdorf Goodman are also doing huge renovations.
My sense is that the other U.S. cities with healthy retail environments are also doing quite well. The problem is less department stores and moreso the massively over-retailed environment in the U.S. We have far more retail per person than Western Europe, so the weaker stores are getting killed.
In most cities (the Cincys and St. Louis type cities) the downtown department store was the weak link in the regional retail environment, so those stores are getting hurt. Those cities don't really have retail cores anymore. But I bet you the top malls in those respective metros are doing very well, with little vacancy, and thriving department stores.
Compare a typical U.S. city to an equivalent European city, and you will see we have far too much retail. Case in point- I was recently in Lansing, MI, a small city of around 100k with maybe 300k in the region. There are three or four main retail clusters in the metro, all with malls, department stores, etc. That's unsustainable in the long-term. An equivalent European city will have one major retail cluster, in the city center. Combined with greater internet shopping penetration in the U.S. and you will see the weaker malls, downtowns, and department store locations close, while the healthier ones thrive.