YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[LeftCoaster]

Great news about Dublin. Hopefully all these new transatlantic seats can be filled next summer, although with it being Rouge there is not as much pressure to fill high yield seats.

Johnny, any idea how many more seats to London there are next summer vs last given the BA downgauge, extra daily AC and 6 extra westjet flights?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Valley_Refugee

Air Canada is throwing everything YVR's way!

Wonderful to be getting this attention from AC ... and rather overdue, one could say.

[Johnny Aussie]

Delete - double post... whoops

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Johnny, any idea how many more seats to London there are next summer vs last given the BA downgauge, extra daily AC and 6 extra westjet flights?

You know I do!

Net change seats per week LHR and LGW S16 vs S15:

AC: + 1,757
WS: + 1,572
TS: + 365
BA: - 857

Net Gain: + 2,837 seats per week each way.

That's a lot of extra seats to fill....

And for Europe as a whole:

AC: + 2,597 (includes rouge to DUB)
KL: + 168
WS: + 1,572
BA: - 857
TS: + 690
WK: + 30
LH: + 183

Net Gain: + 4,394 seats per week each way.

Total capacity will be about 29,200 seats per week - this is an increase of 17.7%.

Note: Condor still shows 5 flights per week on their online timetable but I can only see 4 flights per week operating (bookable). So I have removed that as an increase.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

...............

That's a lot of extra seats to fill....

And for Europe as a whole:

AC: + 2,597 (includes rouge to DUB)
KL: + 168
WS: + 1,572
BA: - 857
TS: + 690
WK: + 30
LH: + 183

Net Gain: + 4,394 seats per week each way. ....
is AF missing from the list beause it's part of KLM, or are there missing stats pertinent to AIR FRANCE?

Total capacity will be about 29,200 seats per week - this is an increase of 17.7%.
....................

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Air France, Condor and Icelandair are nil change from last summer. What you are seeing is just the change in capacity from S15 to S16 only.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

You know I do!

Net change seats per week LHR and LGW S16 vs S15:

AC: + 1,757
WS: + 1,572
TS: + 365
BA: - 857

Net Gain: + 2,837 seats per week each way.

That's a lot of extra seats to fill....

And for Europe as a whole:

AC: + 2,597 (includes rouge to DUB)
KL: + 168
WS: + 1,572
BA: - 857
TS: + 690
WK: + 30
LH: + 183

Net Gain: + 4,394 seats per week each way.

Total capacity will be about 29,200 seats per week - this is an increase of 17.7%.

Note: Condor still shows 5 flights per week on their online timetable but I can only see 4 flights per week operating (bookable). So I have removed that as an increase.

At the same time there is a reduction in seats from Alberta that helps balance this out.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

At the same time there is a reduction in seats from Alberta that helps balance this out.

YYC to Europe will be up about 1,490 seats per week. Up about 11.3% from Summer 2015. Summer 2016 will be around 14,700 seats per week so about 1/2 of YVR.

Don't forget YYC is getting 5 weekly Westjet to LGW and Edelweiss is coming back. Plus upgauging the remaining daily LHR and the daily FRA to 787-9s. KLM will have marginally more seats too. So these more than offset the loss of the 4 weekly LHR and the reduction in Condor by one weekly flight.

YEG on the other hand will be down only about 110 seats per week with the loss of AC to LHR but the gain of the twice weekly Westjet to LGW. Total weekly seats will be about 4,610 down only 2.3%.

Alberta as a whole will have 19,300 seats per week next summer. Up about 1,390 or 7.7%.

[LeftCoaster]

^^ How do you keep track of all this stuff?!

Very impressive

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And for Europe as a whole:

AC: + 2,597 (includes rouge to DUB)
KL: + 168
WS: + 1,572
BA: - 857
TS: + 690
WK: + 30
LH: + 183

Net Gain: + 4,394 seats per week each way.

Total capacity will be about 29,200 seats per week - this is an increase of 17.7%.

Note: Condor still shows 5 flights per week on their online timetable but I can only see 4 flights per week operating (bookable). So I have removed that as an increase.

Thanks Johnny. That is indeed a huge amount of seats. Only aspect to this that makes it a bit more achievable is that a lot of the seats are low yield recreational seats. KL/TS/WS account of a good chunk of that extra capacity and should be much easier to fill than 2 or 3 class flag carriers.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YYC to Europe will be up about 1,490 seats per week. Up about 11.3% from Summer 2015. Summer 2016 will be around 14,700 seats per week so about 1/2 of YVR.

Don't forget YYC is getting 5 weekly Westjet to LGW and Edelweiss is coming back. Plus upgauging the remaining daily LHR and the daily FRA to 787-9s. KLM will have marginally more seats too. So these more than offset the loss of the 4 weekly LHR and the reduction in Condor by one weekly flight.

YEG on the other hand will be down only about 110 seats per week with the loss of AC to LHR but the gain of the twice weekly Westjet to LGW. Total weekly seats will be about 4,610 down only 2.3%.

Alberta as a whole will have 19,300 seats per week next summer. Up about 1,390 or 7.7%.

Combine that with Vancouver and there is a lot of news seats to fill. I just do not see that are organic growth. Perhaps they are planning on fewer passengers connecting through Toronto or transboarder traffic.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

^^ How do you keep track of all this stuff?!

Very impressive

Thanks Johnny. That is indeed a huge amount of seats. Only aspect to this that makes it a bit more achievable is that a lot of the seats are low yield recreational seats. KL/TS/WS account of a good chunk of that extra capacity and should be much easier to fill than 2 or 3 class flag carriers.

Super easy as I have a helper (or two) who love this kind of stuff. I just take the credit . The info was plugged into spreadsheets years ago so now it just takes the odd update.... Just a simple data dump, sort and voilá.

Originally Posted by casper

Combine that with Vancouver and there is a lot of news seats to fill. I just do not see that are organic growth. Perhaps they are planning on fewer passengers connecting through Toronto or transboarder traffic.

You are correct... That is a lot of seats to fill. I think the consumer will be the winner.

So many choices for direct flights to Europe:

Air Canada, AC rouge, KLM, Air Transat, British Airways, Icelandair, Air France, Lufthansa, Condor, Edelweiss, Westjet.

Keflavik, Dublin, Glasgow, Manchester, London-LHR, London-LGW, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Rome.

So let's revisit this in Summer 2017 and see if there are any casualties.

[vanlaw]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Super easy as I have a helper (or two) who love this kind of stuff. I just take the credit . The info was plugged into spreadsheets years ago so now it just takes the odd update.... Just a simple data dump, sort and voilá.



You are correct... That is a lot of seats to fill. I think the consumer will be the winner.

So many choices for direct flights to Europe:

Air Canada, AC rouge, KLM, Air Transat, British Airways, Icelandair, Air France, Lufthansa, Condor, Edelweiss, Westjet.

Keflavik, Dublin, Glasgow, Manchester, London-LHR, London-LGW, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Rome.

So let's revisit this in Summer 2017 and see if there are any casualties.

KLM is definitely aware that there is a ton of competition. They've had some ridiculous seat sales in the past few months. Prices I've never (well, at least in the past 8 years or so) seen for a flag carrier to Europe in shoulder/summer season. YVR to eastern Europe through AMS in June/July for under $750 return. a few years ago I'd be lucky to book for low season for $1,150. We even managed to snag a flight on KLM from eastern Europe to YVR through AMS for an in-law next March for under $450 return. I thought it was an error, but apparently it wasn't.

[Gordon]

The latest google maps shows a large cleared space just east of gate A8 is
something being built there?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Gordon

The latest google maps shows a large cleared space just east of gate A8 is
something being built there?

Ground level holdrooms for WS Encore will be going into that spot. The Google image shows the ground preparation work where large amounts of dirt are added to compact the soil in preparation for apron and building to be erected. FYI that space was cleared in the 60s, it used to be the employee parking lot for AC people.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Gordon

The latest google maps shows a large cleared space just east of gate A8 is
something being built there?

gate A1-A7

Originally Posted by Cage

Ground level holdrooms for WS Encore will be going into that spot. The Google image shows the ground preparation work where large amounts of dirt are added to compact the soil in preparation for apron and building to be erected. FYI that space was cleared in the 60s, it used to be the employee parking lot for AC people.

I believe Encore need more gates. CMA and Hawkair would also be moved from the B pier to A.

[Johnny Aussie]

Wow... Another amazing month for YVR.

Overall up 90,000 up 6.0%
Domestic up 26,500 up 3.2%
Transborder up 27,200 up 8.1%
Europe up 7,800 up 8.5%
Asia Pacific up 25,000 up 11.4%
Misc Int'l up 3,500 up 20.2%

TTL int'l up 63,400 up 9.5%

Overall YTD up 795,200 up 4.8%
Domestic YTD up 201,600 up 2.4%
Total Int'l YTD up 593,600 up 7.5%

TTL YTD over 17.2 million
DOM YTD ~ 8.7 million
TTL INT YTD ~ 8.5 million

Getting very close to 50/50 split between domestic and international.

http://yvr.ca/Libraries/Aviation_Marketing/October_2015_Traffic_Update.sflb.ashx

[excel]

Wow awesome!

[Hot Rod]

20M is assured for 2015! Maybe even 21M.

[CareerShow]

Anyone have any idea about Westjets frequencies to Hawaii this year? Has the addition of the 767 Alberta routes lowered the frequencies out of YVR? I remember last year Lihue and Kona were daily and Maui and Honolulu were 14 weekly each.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hot Rod

20M is assured for 2015! Maybe even 21M.

20M I'm sure of! (yay!) ..... 21M is perhaps stretching it a bit, I think.