Quote:
Originally Posted by Drybrain
I agree with all that, but on balance this is still a prosperous first-world jurisdiction. People legitamately think we're heading for a Greece or Detroit situation, which just isn't in the cards for us.
Youth unemployment is bad, but I really want to see city-specific numbers. It's actually better than the other Maritime provinces, and on par with Ontario and the national average. ( This page has numbers if you scroll down a bit.) I've heard the 3 percent of jobs going to people under 45, but I can't believe that isn't some skewed metric. Virtually everyone I know is under 45, and are all employed. I'm certain there's something up with that stat.
Anyway, I know it can sound like pleading for complacency, but it's just context. Most of our problems are common to all provinces, but exaggerated. I do worry that being under-urbanized makes us less resilient, but rural NS has become so old that frankly, the death rate there is going to drive our urban/rural ratio higher. That's nor really how you want to shift those numbers, but it will expedite things.
If you crunch the numbers for Quebec or ontario, it starts to look pretty scary there too. It's masked somewhat by immigration levels,, but the fundamentals are all going the wrong way, as they are in most of the western world. We need to stop think we're uniquely screwed, and start thinking about how to address issues without inducing despair.
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No doubt Ontario and Quebec are in a rough spot, particularly Quebec. At some point, a Government is going to have to make some significant and extremely difficult decisions to change things. Premier Wynne, too, has backed away from her promise to expand Ontario's pension fund; a ludicrous proposition given the province's own fiscal challenges and the Baby Boomer factor.
It's difficult to find city-by-city youth unemployment comparisons, though my sense is that Halifax is much lower than Nova Scotia's youth unemployment rate, and comparable to the national average which hovers around 14%.
The 3% number came from a Halifax Partnership report, and I think it refers to new jobs added to the economy. So if your friends were employed within existing positions, that wouldn't be counted. It means new jobs created, they went almost exclusively 45+ aged workers... which is very shortsighted.
Again, recent Provincial Government moves to provide for targeted quotas for youth hires is a great step in leadership, especially Government calling on private sector to follow suit.
I took the 18.3% number for Nova Scotia, from this recent report on the lives of youth in NS:
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/...%80%99s-youth-much-worse-than-decade-ago
States that number was, at the time (2014), the worst in Canada.
A few more graphics.
Halifax not entirely insulated from demographic issues.
However, notwithstanding all of the stats I cited, and these additional links, I actually think Nova Scotia's problems are quite solvable.
In fact, while things will necessarily be a tough slog for the next 20 years, Nova Scotia can, in significant ways, be saved from a fiscal cliff by significantly ramping up immigration alone.
If we can invest in immigration attraction and settlement, and double our annual immigration in take-- such that we annually take in 4000-5000 annually-- we don't entirely solve our population challenges, but significantly reduce the demographic/fiscal dangers, so long as we also significantly reign in, or hold the line on, health spending... that might be just enough to get us over the Boomer hump.
In light of the population projections, I can understand why the Ivany Report called for *tripling* annual immigration numbers, even if that's unrealistic.
But calling for more, should at least kick start things. The present government is making slow progress. But immigration increases have never been politically popular. So I worry.