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  #6461  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 7:08 PM
mr1138 mr1138 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
Yeah, but people are stupid. They do not understand or accept that more development is a solution, rather than the problem. So that involvement you seek turns into a forum for anti-growth NIMBY sentiment. Also, people are selfish. So for every one person you claim is worried about the loss of their neighborhood, they have two neighbors who are thrilled to death to be able to sell out at a ginormous profit. Which also creates perverse incentives - by opposing growth, they can increase their own property values until they sell (for 30 seconds of their lives, at the closing table, they are pro-development). So the result is two camps of people - one stupid and naive, the other selfish, but BOTH opposed to development.
I completely agree with this (and yours and Cirrus' earlier points on the topic as well). I feel like adding as well, that these parties also do not have any direct incentive to think about larger/competing questions - like keeping various sectors of the economy strong, long term affordability beyond their own neighborhood, infrastructure requirements, the funding of city services, environmental issues suburban sprawl and climate change, and many other competing issues and interests. Instead, they can advocate selfishly for narrow personal interests (which usually boils down to "I don't want any change to my lifestyle or neighborhood").

This is the classic problem with direct-democracy, and the reason I'm quite skeptical of the newly popular "let the neighbors decide" anti-development movement. While representative governments are certainly still far from perfect, there is a reason these decisions are better made in a forum where multiple interests must be considered, and where the correct answer isn't always what is desired or comfortable for everyone.
     
     
  #6462  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 7:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enjo13 View Post
Income restricted housing also has the nice effect of fucking over the folks in the middle. So now you have San Francisco, you get to feel good because x% of poor people get to live in the city but you've artificially restricted supply to ensure that those in the middle have to move to Oakland (or farther at this point).

There is always only one singular answer to this problem: build, build, and build some more. Which is why I continue to support value-engineered buildings. It means we get more of them.
I agree that this is the best solution to the issue- building your way out of it (or up in this case), and why any kind of fund should be used primarily for new units.
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  #6463  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 7:38 PM
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So it's not just Denver?

Homes with good schools unaffordable on average wages, new study finds
Published: Nov 19, 2015 by By Andrea Riquier MarketWatch
Quote:
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. zip codes with good schools are unaffordable to homebuyers making an average wage, according to a study released Thursday.

The real estate data firm RealtyTrac compared data on school test scores and affordability of homes in the same zip codes.
The irony of timing gave me a chuckle.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tboo View Post
http://www.yesmagazine.org/new-economy/7...hoods-wealth-not-gentrification-20151111

I think this article does a good job explaining why communities are essential to planning rather than just a group of planning students or professional planners. I think it also illustrates some points that are in line with why there is some growing animosity among long-time Denver residents who don't feel included in the future of their neighborhoods or city.
I'll have to finish the article later but it intrigues. That said I guess I've kicked around too long to believe there's much there there. Then again transit was once the target of folly propaganda.

While Denver is it's own enclave to a point for those who study the prevailing winds, it's not a pretty picture for "progressive ideas" into next year's elections and going forward for maybe a decade. Ugh - Just sayin'.
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  #6464  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 7:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enjo13 View Post
It appears we're doing better than Minneapolis in the Airport Hotel Building department.
Atlanta is in their wishing phase. Their proposed hotel although nearby is meant to anchor a push for development of a specific area. Interest from the development community has been modest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by enjo13 View Post
There is always only one singular answer to this problem: build, build, and build some more. Which is why I continue to support value-engineered buildings. It means we get more of them.
I've got a different solution... a good old fashioned, butt-kicking recession along the lines of Denver's Boom and Bust past. Just a thought.
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  #6465  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 9:02 PM
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
I've got a different solution... a good old fashioned, butt-kicking recession along the lines of Denver's Boom and Bust past. Just a thought.
Didn't really work in 2008
     
     
  #6466  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 9:36 PM
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How timely, how interesting

Downtown Denver's population nears 73,000; 12,933 units added since 2011
Nov 19, 2015 by Molly Armbrister Denver Business Journal
Quote:
The residential population of downtown Denver is approaching 73,000, according to a report Thursday from the Downtown Denver Partnership.

The explosion of population growth in the center city, where some neighborhoods have grown by more than 30 percent since 2010, is a testament to our collective progress toward building an economically healthy, growing and vital downtown," said Tami Door, president and CEO of the DDP.
The full report from the Downtown Denver Partnership is HERE.
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  #6467  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 9:48 PM
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Originally Posted by corey View Post
Do affordable for sale condo units go for the market rate when re-sold? If you buy a unit for $250,000 because the initial price is artificially low can you turn around and sell for $400,000 and make a huge profit at the public's expense? Are these units affordable only to the lucky initial buyer? Doesn't seem like a long term solution.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wong21fr
They generally have contract clauses that they can only appreciate by x percent per year for x number of years. The contract also stipulates what kind of buyer the current owner can sell to in that they have to meet certain income qualifications. So they aren't exposed to market conditions as long as the contract remains in place.

It's certainly not a market solution and the difficulty in reselling the units might make the argument that affordable housing should be geared towards rentals with vouchers.
The income restricted properties are deed-restricted and controlled by a covenant. They have a 4% appreciation cap per year. The covenants were negotiated case by case before about 2002/3? when they were standerdized. The deed restriction expires with the first sale after 20 years from the date the covenant was registered with the city. The first wave of affordables are about to expire 2020 or so, Glass House etc. (Some earlier covenants contained a ten year deed restriction).
     
     
  #6468  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 9:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
How timely, how interesting

Downtown Denver's population nears 73,000; 12,933 units added since 2011
Nov 19, 2015 by Molly Armbrister Denver Business Journal

The full report from the Downtown Denver Partnership is HERE.
If we could sustain these growth rates for another decade we could have 100K people in the Center City. That would be a pretty good critical mass for a 24-hour city with all the retail, cultural, work, educational, and civic amenities that such a city would bring.

Queue Bunt on affordability and transportation constraints.
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  #6469  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 9:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enjo13 View Post
Income restricted housing also has the nice effect of fucking over the folks in the middle. There is always only one singular answer to this problem: build, build, and build some more.
I'm OK with income restricted housing if it's a mechanism to get more sum housing built. If the zoning says you can build 100 units, but you can build 110 if those extra 10 are affordable, I'm on board with that. Of course, I'd rather the zoning just allow 200 (or 300 or 500), but I'll take the 110 over the 100 if that's my choice.
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  #6470  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 10:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
How timely, how interesting

Downtown Denver's population nears 73,000; 12,933 units added since 2011
Nov 19, 2015 by Molly Armbrister Denver Business Journal

The full report from the Downtown Denver Partnership is HERE.
Some amazing numbers. As a Denver native, I remember the very start of the Central Denver boom in early 90s. It seemed so daunting with the vast tracts of abandoned industrial land, and yet people like Dana Crawford were screaming about the potential for redevelopment. I always thought the area very cool, with potential, but probably viewed their optimistic views as a bit of pie in the sky. In fact they were visionary.

I just saw this old 1998 article form the New York Times, talking about the "boom" in Denver (even though not a single apartment had been built yet in the Union Station area). The people quoted in this NYT article were so bullish on their view of the potential for downtown:

'

DENVER, Dec. 28— From her fifth-floor apartment in a freshly converted flour mill, Dana Crawford surveyed the abandoned railroad yards at the core of downtown Denver and envisioned lofts and more lofts.

As carpenters built 350 apartments and bulldozers opened utility trenches for 3,500 more, Ms. Crawford, a developer, waved to a cluster of vacant red-brick warehouses near the freight tracks and predicted, ''All these warehouse buildings will be turned into lofts.''

* * *

'Denver fits the pattern of a Western automobile city, so for a Sun Belt city, what is happening here is very inspiring,'' said Brad Segal, an urban consultant who is on the board of the International Downtown Association, an organization of city planners specializing in downtowns. Noting that delegations from cities as diverse as Albuquerque, N.M., and Baltimore have recently toured downtown Denver to get ideas, Mr. Segal added, ''Most of the cities I work in want to be like Denver.''

Planners caution that the move downtown, here and elsewhere, is a mini-trend in the face of continuing suburban expansion. Indeed, while the city of Denver's population grew by 2 percent, or 12,000 people, since 1980, to about 500,000 people, its suburbs grew by a third in the same time, adding 505,000 people.

But looking ahead, Mr. Segal and other urbanists believe that demographics and accumulated wealth are pointing to radical transformations in American downtowns in the coming decades. Virtually none of the people moving into downtown Denver have children living at home. They are singles, childless couples or older people, the ''empty nesters'' whose children have left home for college and careers.


If anything, they were overly cautious on their projections! LoDo, the focus of this article, has now been or is being surpassed by developed areas (or revitalized neighborhoods) they didn't even have a name as of the date of this article (LoHi, RiNo, Riverfront, Union Station, etc.) The City population now exceeds 670,000 - quite the jump from the 505K quoted in the article. It's been a fun ride.

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/29/us/den...ward-downtown-living.html?pagewanted=all

Last edited by CherryCreek; Nov 19, 2015 at 10:34 PM.
     
     
  #6471  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2015, 10:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcp View Post
You do know who is selling all of the old homes and land in Lohi and Jeff park...don't you?
People like Jim the roofer and others who are smart enough to purchase homes a long time ago in a rough neighborhood, and smart enough now to cash out?

Without this evil developer, he'd be banging nails until he was 100.
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  #6472  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 1:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
How timely, how interesting

Downtown Denver's population nears 73,000; 12,933 units added since 2011
Nov 19, 2015 by Molly Armbrister Denver Business Journal

The full report from the Downtown Denver Partnership is HERE.
I did a little digging just to see what the numbers were like comparing 2000 to 2010, and now to 2015 (or whenever these numbers were assembled from DDP). It's a little hard to correlate the census neighborhoods to the DDP neighborhoods, because they are broken up differently, and some spill into others (in the images below, census on the left, DDP on the right, you can see the differences)


But basically here are how the numbers roughly broke down for populations of the different neighborhoods and the various demographics. Several neighborhoods, like Jeff. Park and Highland have actually lost population since 2000 because of less people per household. The "gentrification" is also very obvious in those neighborhoods, with Hispanic populations dropping significantly, and white populations rising in kind.
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Last edited by EngiNerd; Nov 20, 2015 at 1:26 AM. Reason: scaled photo down
     
     
  #6473  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 2:06 AM
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12,933 units added since 2011 and yet only 10698 people have moved in since 2010. That doesn't seem like a good ratio to me.
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  #6474  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 2:30 AM
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Originally Posted by navyweaxguy View Post
12,933 units added since 2011 and yet only 10698 people have moved in since 2010. That doesn't seem like a good ratio to me.
129333 units added OR under construction. According to the numbers on the infographic 6768 completed since 2011 and 6165 under construction.
     
     
  #6475  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 3:57 AM
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Probably a big reduction in empty units since the census as well.

And some change in the amount of roommate situations...fewer people doubling up because they were poor, but more people doubling because rents are higher.
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  #6476  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 4:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tboo View Post
I think it also illustrates some points that are in line with why there is some growing animosity among long-time Denver residents who don't feel included in the future of their neighborhoods or city. When rental costs are increasing by 12% a year we have a crisis that is unsustainable without a middle ground on affordable housing. I understand that more development is the answer, that supply and demand are real things, but my original point was that the planning process should include the people and help to meet the needs of the people rather than pushing them out. I just think it's unconscionable to drop a plan on a neighborhood without consulting those people.
The planning process does include the people and no one is dropping a plan on any neighborhood without consulting the people. Every plan that the city does has extensive multi-faceted public engagement over the duration of the planning process. In fact, some people complain that there's actually too much public involvement in Denver's planning processes.

Some people may not like the plan recommendations or outcomes, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a recent planning process in the city, run by the city, that didn't have substantial public outreach.
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  #6477  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 5:04 AM
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Originally Posted by bobg View Post
129333 units added OR under construction. According to the numbers on the infographic 6768 completed since 2011 and 6165 under construction.
Exactly. The unit number includes thousands of under-construction units, while the population numbers are estimates from... not sure. They don't provide their population estimate data source/methodology in the report. Either way, the population estimates are going to lag the unit count data which is as of this month.
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  #6478  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 6:59 AM
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Friday's Frightful Follies

14 Predictions for 2016 from the Brightest Minds in Finance
November 19, 2015 — 10:01 PM MST by Michael Boyle, Margaret Collins, Pia Gadkari and Yoolim Lee - Bloomberg Markets/BloombergBusiness
Quote:
Watch for a Worldwide Recession
Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets equity and global macro, Morgan Stanley Investment Management: “We are now just one big shock away from a global downturn, and the next one seems most likely to originate in China...
Eh, I don't see this happening. China is making key reforms, correcting excesses and even having some success in creating more of a consumer based economy.

Quote:
Unicorns Will Have Their Moment—or Not
Alan Patricof, co-founder of Greycroft Partners: “I am concerned about the overexuberance in financing of startups. There are just too many at the moment, and there isn’t enough money to sustain them.
I've also wondered if this current craze won't run out of steam. Presumably it has to but the question then is when and how quickly this worm will turn. 2016 looks safe to me but this bears watching.

I can't figure whether Denver is more or less vulnerable than other places to a decline in tech investing. For example, Ed Sealover the DBJ ran an interesting article about company Keg Logistics getting a PE investment to grow their business. Denver also already has one of the larger craft beer keg companies with MicroStar Logistics that is also growing rapidly. Both companies are good examples of a tech-related approach to a practical business need.

Have a romantic weekend.
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  #6479  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 1:27 PM
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Originally Posted by DenverInfill View Post
In fact, some people complain that there's actually too much public involvement in Denver's planning processes.
I'm one of those people. I don't know of any other field where there is this much direct democracy. I prefer to rely on professionals that see the bigger picture, and in the case of city planning, can take in account regional demographic changes. Involving the public in planning results in a design by committee solution driven by only the ones that are most passionate (read: angry) and the ones that have the most time (read: retired people). Furthermore, this kind of direct democracy is easy to manipulate when the majority of the population is misinformed and generally act out of fear.
     
     
  #6480  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2015, 6:12 PM
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Unemployment

Hey guys -

Denver Business Journal just ran a brief article on the unemployment rate:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/finance_etc/2015/11/colorado-unemployment.html

The interesting thing about this article is really the several year look back and steady decrease in unemployment... despite the oil and gas issues. It seems to me that we're getting closer and closer to the unemployment percentage really just reflecting frictional unemployment (I have nothing really to back that up, just a gut feeling).

It's exciting to consider the effect our more diversified, growing economy will continue to have on the development in Denver and the greater metro area.

Pretty nifty, though I'm sure we could all look into the underemployment stats to dampen the spirits a little.
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