Federal election in London/Windsor/SWO - Page 2

MolsonExport · #21 Posted **Sep 18, 2015, 11:37 PM**

^yeah, anybodybutharper seems credible. I will track daily.

ssiguy · #22 Posted **Sep 19, 2015, 6:28 PM**

London West will be one of the closest Liberal/Conservative battleground riding in the country.

When you look at poll-tracker and individual riding forecasts you have to consider that in such a close race anything predicted as a win with a 50 to 60% chance is completely up for grabs.

One issue for Harper, far less so than the other 2 parties, is that can also apply for support chances up to 70% if people vote strategically. As mentioned the ABC vote could really hurt Harper as he will get none of the second choice votes. His base is strong and decided but conversely he has almost no growth potential.

The NDP still have a decent shot in Essex as the Liberals are weak there and interesting that Halimand-Norfolk isn't exactly a shoe in for the Conservatives. Quite surprising when it is a very rural/small town riding with Simcoe being the biggest town with only 18,000.

ssiguy · #23 Posted **Sep 24, 2015, 5:15 AM**

Looks like London West is amongst the top 5 most contested seats in the country with the latest seat projection with Liberals and Tories tied at a 50% chance of taking it..........this is where strategic voting will make or break Harper.

ssiguy · #24 Posted **Oct 1, 2015, 4:25 AM**

Newest poll has the Liberals in the lead in London West but by the very thinnest of margins.

haljackey · #25 Posted **Oct 1, 2015, 12:12 PM**

Science and Technology Minister Ed Holder misses science debate

http://www.lfpress.com/2015/09/30/scienc...ips-science-debate-at-western-university

-----

Also

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/28/ed-holder-missing-london-west-election_n_8210724.html

jaradthescot · #26 Posted **Oct 1, 2015, 1:54 PM**

I love it! They couldn't have gotten a better picture, either.

haljackey · #27 Posted **Oct 3, 2015, 12:08 AM**

Free Press breaks down London's federal election ridings

http://www.lfpress.com/2015/10/02/the-london-races--4-ridings-22-candidates-16-days

My predictions based on what info we have right now + a hunch.

London West: Conservative or Liberal. Victor will likely win by the thinnest of margins. All depends if voter turnout is high and enough strategic NDP supporters sense a change in the wind and vote Liberal. Very odd since it's NDP provincially.

London North Centre: I think the Liberals will take back this riding, but it will be close. Will be a conservative hold if voter turnout is low.

London Fanshawe: NDP hold unless Mulcair does something really stupid.

Elgin Middlesex London: Conservative hold, but I expect the NDP vote to be on their toes. NDP win would be a huge upset.

HillStreetBlues · #28 Posted **Oct 3, 2015, 9:02 PM**

The Tories earned more than twice as many votes as the Dippers in Elgin-Middlesex-London in 2011. A success for them would be if they earn a quarter of the vote (which they did last time, with the Liberal collapse).

I agree with your other predictions.

Off-topic: Almost every single time I read a London Free Press article, I find myself annoyed about some piece of stupidity they include. In this one they say about the intersection of Oxford and Wonderland that it is "arguably the heart of the city and one of its busiest thoroughfares."

"Arguably the heart of the city"? Seriously? An intersection with a strip mall, a gas station, a former gas station, and until recently an honest to goodness farmer's field is "arguably" the heart of the city? With whom would they be arguing, and has that person been to London? Maybe this is the Dan Brown who wrote those books they sell in the airport, and he's writing this article from his private island and didn't feel like looking at a map of London to see where the downtown might be.

I stopped reading the article after that. It's hard to care what that paper might have to say about anything.

MolsonExport · #29 Posted **Oct 4, 2015, 2:50 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by haljackey

Science and Technology Minister Ed Holder misses science debate

http://www.lfpress.com/2015/09/30/scienc...ips-science-debate-at-western-university

-----

Also

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/28/ed-holder-missing-london-west-election_n_8210724.html

He was busy at the hair salon.

He may be a decent guy, but I loathe the conservatives and their platform.

MolsonExport · #30 Posted **Oct 4, 2015, 2:52 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

The Tories earned more than twice as many votes as the Dippers in Elgin-Middlesex-London in 2011. A success for them would be if they earn a quarter of the vote (which they did last time, with the Liberal collapse).

I agree with your other predictions.

Off-topic: Almost every single time I read a London Free Press article, I find myself annoyed about some piece of stupidity they include. In this one they say about the intersection of Oxford and Wonderland that it is "arguably the heart of the city and one of its busiest thoroughfares."

"Arguably the heart of the city"? Seriously? An intersection with a strip mall, a gas station, a former gas station, and until recently an honest to goodness farmer's field is "arguably" the heart of the city? With whom would they be arguing, and has that person been to London? Maybe this is the Dan Brown who wrote those books they sell in the airport, and he's writing this article from his private island and didn't feel like looking at a map of London to see where the downtown might be.

I stopped reading the article after that. It's hard to care what that paper might have to say about anything.

ssiguy · #31 Posted **Oct 4, 2015, 4:06 AM**

Which riding does Ed Holder represent?

Nouvellecosse · #32 Posted **Oct 4, 2015, 4:12 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Quote:

Originally Posted by haljackey

Science and Technology Minister Ed Holder misses science debate

http://www.lfpress.com/2015/09/30/scienc...ips-science-debate-at-western-university

-----

Also

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/28/ed-holder-missing-london-west-election_n_8210724.html

He was busy at the hair salon.

He may be a decent guy, but I loathe the conservatives and their platform.

What I want to know is, why would someone intentionally take a picture like that? I mean, it seems like he's looking right at the camera, so he wouldn't he have known it was being taken?

haljackey · #33 Posted **Oct 4, 2015, 2:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Which riding does Ed Holder represent?

London West. He defeated one of the last Chretien-era liberals, Sue Barnes, in a squeaker in 2008. Vote splitting in 2011 allowed him to win with a more comfortable margin in 2011.

He has now participated in a debate on Rogers TV, along with all other London-area candidates. Watch here: http://rogerstv.com/page.aspx?lid=12&rid=9&sid=7034

------

Also tonight at 7pm all London Liberal candidates will be doing an AMA on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/c...l_party_of_canada_kate_younglondon_west/

Edit: they cancelled: https://www.reddit.com/r/londonontario/comments/3nnhe0/update_liberal_ama/

ssiguy · #34 Posted **Oct 10, 2015, 3:14 AM**

Voted Liberal today with my mom {first time in her life doing so} and we were both going in voting for Mulcair {both firsts in our lives} and I think this is how many NDP supporters have been shifting in the last month. Good news for London West but not so good for Windsor NDP where it's the Conservatives that are running in #3 spot.

I still think it's interesting to see Halimond/Norfolk potentially going Liberal. It's quite unusual for a rural riding.

ssiguy · #35 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 1:33 AM**

Latest polls have the Liberals increasingly their lead over the Tories in London West but it's still certainly a battleground riding.

HillStreetBlues · #36 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 1:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I still think it's interesting to see Halimond/Norfolk potentially going Liberal. It's quite unusual for a rural riding.

My in-laws live in Haldimand-Norfolk and my mother-in-law at least is saying she will vote Liberal. My father-in-law has overwhelmingly negative memories of Bob Speller, their Liberal representative during the Mulroney and Chretien years, mostly because Speller was appointed Agriculture Minister and "did nothing for Norfolk."

My parents-in-law cash crop, but Norfolk at least has a lot of produce, which means a bit more cross-pollination with the cities if folks run stands or go into a city for a market day. I know organic farmers in the county who have certain opinions that would not be out of place in downtown Toronto. I personally think this (produce versus pure cash crop) is why Haldimand-Norfolk has elected non-Tories before, while some rural areas almost never have.

haljackey · #37 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 2:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Latest polls have the Liberals increasingly their lead over the Tories in London West but it's still certainly a battleground riding.

Got a source for this by chance?

HillStreetBlues · #38 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 5:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by haljackey

Got a source for this by chance?

A poll last week by Environics was I think the latest. It shows a statistical tie between the Liberals and Tories.

I don't think any has shown the Liberals in the lead. I saw one earlier this month that showed a much tighter three-way race (with both the Liberals and Tories at a lower level of support).

I was in the riding last night. The crowd I was with is not representative, and would probably be further to the right than usual. I was surprised to hear several continue to say that they would vote (or had voted) NDP. Most had a favourable impression of Young, but one who maybe should know such things seemed to think Rowlinson is generally better-liked. I had not heard that before.

haljackey · #39 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 7:46 PM**

Problem with London West is that it is NDP provincially, so there is a huge NDP base.

They need to change to Lib to defeat Holder. If they don't the vote split will cause Holder to win easily.

Rowlinson is a much more likable character and will probably be a better MP (at least in my opinion), while Young will likely be just a backbencher.

So it's go with your gut or go with who is best posed to defeat the Conservatives. Hard choice to make.

My conscious is leaning NDP, but I know I have to vote Liberal to get Holder out.

HillStreetBlues · #40 Posted **Oct 13, 2015, 8:30 PM**

It's a crummy position that people in many ridings are put in. I think there are a lot of positives to first-past-the-post, but this isn't one of them. Introducing a ranked ballot in each constituency might improve things. It seems like a bad situation when a voter's one and only vote winds up going to a candidate who is not the voter's first choice, who in turn belongs to a party who is not the voter's first choice.

It's too simplistic to say "vote your conscience" when you believe that your second-favoured candidate will lose to your least-favoured for want of your vote. I'm not sure what's going on in London West, though- like you say, it was held by the NDP provincially even with the province turning back to the Liberals. Can a significant number of those NDPers be switching Liberal merely because they think the Liberals will take it? That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, if so: all logic would suggest that the NDP, absent all of this strategic voting calculus, should be the party to take this away from the Tories.