Canada Election 2015

[MonctonRad]

Latest CBC Poll Tracker projection:

LIB - 127 seats
CPC - 124 seats
NDP - 85 seats
GRN - 1 seat
BLQ - 1 seat

The NDP are toast. The Liberals have momentum. The Tories are treading water.

Personal prediction - a Liberal minority government.

If the minority is weak enough, hopefully Justin won't be able to do much damage. It all depends how much the NDP supports him.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Fantastic news

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.ht...first-past-the-post-by-the-next-election

Where ya been, SHH. This plank was first released weeks ago as the first bit of the Liberal campaign platform, along with a raft of other proposed changes to on democratic reform/improved governance. To me it is perhaps the most important campaign promise made by any of the three parties in this campaign. I am glad to see Trudeau returning to it as it has not yet captured much attention.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Fantastic news

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.ht...first-past-the-post-by-the-next-election

From the article:

The committee would also explore the notions of mandatory voting and online voting.

Very glad to see that mandatory voting is at least being considered. There is no point in having a democracy if people don't bother to get involved. We'd be better off with a benevolent dictatorship than with a low-turnout democracy.

You could make a solid argument that people should be free to choose not to vote, but most people are inherently lazy, and forcing them to get out and vote really isn't a huge burden or anything.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by ainvan

CBC

Note the "likely seat count" auras. That's clearly a sign of very tight races.

The "CPC cloud" is higher in terms of MPs than the "LPC cloud".

Also, by the NDP numbers I would assume Quebec is still voting mostly for them, even though it wouldn't take much to flip the entire province away from them.

[flar]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It would absolutely advantage the Liberals over the Conservatives. Of that there is no question.

Justin seeks to institutionalize the Natural Governing Party. The only way to the trough will be through the Liberal Party of Canada.

And all will be right with the universe again.

The Conservatives would be fine, they'd just have to move closer to the centre, where the majority of Canadians are.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Latest CBC Poll Tracker projection:

LIB - 127 seats
CPC - 124 seats
NDP - 85 seats
GRN - 1 seat
BLQ - 1 seat

The NDP are toast. The Liberals have momentum. The Tories are treading water.

Personal prediction - a Liberal minority government.

If the minority is weak enough, hopefully Justin won't be able to do much damage. It all depends how much the NDP supports him.

Virtually down the line, with a few tweaks to get some of their social policies incorporated into the budget. Probably up to three years of stable government.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If the minority is weak enough, hopefully Justin won't be able to do much damage. It all depends how much the NDP supports him.

I've done a pretty thorough read of the Liberal platform, and there isn't anything that strikes me as being particularly likely to cause damage. It's fairly centrist for the most part. The big question mark is how many NDP policies get adopted in exchange for NDP support of the Liberals.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by flar

The Conservatives would be fine, they'd just have to move closer to the centre, where the majority of Canadians are.

This. In fact it would probably force them closer to the position of the old Progressive Conservative party, which I would welcome.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Procrastinational

From the article:


Very glad to see that mandatory voting is at least being considered. There is no point in having a democracy if people don't bother to get involved. We'd be better off with a benevolent dictatorship than with a low-turnout democracy.

You could make a solid argument that people should be free to choose not to vote, but most people are inherently lazy, and forcing them to get out and vote really isn't a huge burden or anything.

If the Liberals were to form the next government, this will be a fascinating discussion to follow. The Conservatives can be counted on to demand that a referendum be held on any change to the voting system (ostensibly for reasons of democracy, but in fact because they favour FPTP). I like mandatory voting - those not inclined to vote can either spoil their vote or decline the ballot.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Procrastinational

This. In fact it would probably force them closer to the position of the old Progressive Conservative party, which I would welcome.

Is that really possible while the Conservatives are still controlled by Reform? Who is the leader who would lead them out of the far right? I have trouble seeing it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Procrastinational

You could make a solid argument that people should be free to choose not to vote, but most people are inherently lazy, and forcing them to get out and vote really isn't a huge burden or anything.

Yeah, I like the idea of mandatory voting too but as you say, it's hard to believe that in the current climate it won't run into issues of personal freedom and human rights.

[ainvan]

Originally Posted by lio45

Also, by the NDP numbers I would assume Quebec is still voting mostly for them, even though it wouldn't take much to flip the entire province away from them.

Yes



Come on my Québécois brothers and sisters, let's take back our country that has been gone meaner and heartless in the last 9.5 years. Vote ABC!

Hope, not fear

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Is that really possible while the Conservatives are still controlled by Reform? Who is the leader who would lead them out of the far right? I have trouble seeing it.

They might not have a choice. Without vote splitting under the FPTP system, there is no way the Conservatives will win more seats than the Liberals and NDP combined. It would only take getting decimated in a few elections before they got the message and shifted towards the centre-right.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ainvan

Yes



Come on my Québécois brothers and sisters, let's take back our country that has been gone meaner and heartless in the last 9.5 years. Vote ABC!

Hope, not fear

What exactly do you want us to do more?

We're already voting ABC. The Conservatives were at 17.7% here this morning. The lowest in the country.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by ainvan

Come on my Québécois brothers and sisters, let's take back our country that has been gone meaner and heartless in the last 9.5 years. Vote ABC!

Hope, not fear

That message should be directed towards voters in Ontario if you want the greatest impact.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yeah, I like the idea of mandatory voting too but as you say, it's hard to believe that in the current climate it won't run into issues of personal freedom and human rights.

Sec 1 of the Charter probably takes care of any problem - I'd be optimistic that the SCC would uphold mandatory voting.

1. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.

[Procrastinational]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Sec 1 of the Charter probably takes care of any problem - I'd be optimistic that the SCC would uphold mandatory voting.

1. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.

Seems unlikely that having to vote violates the notion of being a democratic society

[Acajack]

I don't know how you guys can be so sure about how the SCC would rule in such a case.

Dissent is totally legal and constitutionally protected. It could be used pretty effectively as an argument against mandatory voting.

[ainvan]

Originally Posted by Acajack

What exactly do you want us to do more?

We're already voting ABC. The Conservatives were at 17.7% here this morning. The lowest in the country.

Yes, but QC is the only province outside AB that the Tories are projected to increase their seats from 2011. Getting eight more seats for the Tories is crucial in this tight election


CBC

[Migs]

Originally Posted by ainvan

Yes



Come on my Québécois brothers and sisters, let's take back our country that has been gone meaner and heartless in the last 9.5 years. Vote ABC!

Hope, not fear

That's funny that you say "not fear" & just before that spreading misinformation about the country. Who's the one spreading fear? You guys make my chuckle. You're so misinformed that you don't even know who you should try & persuade to change their vote.