Canada Election 2015

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Migs

Lefties finding the destruction of property amusing. Typical.

Yeah. But it's only an election sign. And he won't win.

[Nelju]

The federal election is just two weeks away, and the latest poll by Mainstream Technologies show the Conservatives with a clear lead.

The poll, conducted before Friday night’s TVA debate, shows the Tories leading with 37%, with the Liberals trailing at 29% and NDP dropping to 24%.

“In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and Provinces and those results seemed to point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and Liberals. When we look across the National picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the Conservatives.” Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, said in a statement.

The poll has a margin of error of 1.36%, 19 times out of 20.
http://www.640toronto.com/2015/10/06/80695/

[Migs]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Yeah. But it's only an election sign. And he won't win.

And there is the excuse. Right on cue.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Migs

And there is the excuse. Right on cue.

And there's the feigned outrage. Right on cue.

War on Christmas!

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Peterborough always elects a candidate of the winning party both federally and provincially.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Sarnia is considered a bell weather riding.............it has elected the winning party ever single year since 1963.

Relevant:

https://xkcd.com/1122/

[eternallyme]

I think the poll numbers will be hardly reflective of seat counts, and issues like refugees, the niqab and similar issues are the key. Gains for both the CPC and LPC might just be over-polling of areas that their views are in line with.

My guess for the real numbers right now:

CPC - 36%
LPC - 35%
NDP - 22%
BQ - 4%
GPC - 2%
Others - 1%

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by geotag277

Relevant:

https://xkcd.com/1122/

Sarnia has been offside with Ontario in the last 3 provincial elections though, as it has trended Conservative with the NDP clearly the #2 party there.

[ssiguy]

Who ever you want to win or what ever polling you think is most accurate, Mainstreet has proven itself to be an incredibly incompetent polling company and some of their results have been truly bizarre.

It will be very interesting to see how the TPP effects the election. I can certainly see it being beneficial to Western Canada but I don't see it going over well in Quebec or Ontario. Quebec will lose dairy farmers and production and this is nothing but bad news for the manufacturing sector in Ontario.

Let's face it Canada exports next to zero manufactured goods to Asia/Pacific and the overwhelming export is commodities. Now even less of the auto parts will have to be manufactured in Canada {read Ontario} and this will see the end of supply side dairy production in Quebec. This is a net loss for the two largest provinces so I can't imagine it going over well.

Ontario has already lost 400,000 well paying manufacturing jobs especially in the crucial auto sector as those jobs have moved to Mexico and other low wage districts so how this will be spun as anything but accelerating that loss will be a very hard sell.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Who ever you want to win or what ever polling you think is most accurate, Mainstreet has proven itself to be an incredibly incompetent polling company and some of their results have been truly bizarre.

It will be very interesting to see how the TPP effects the election. I can certainly see it being beneficial to Western Canada but I don't see it going over well in Quebec or Ontario. Quebec will lose dairy farmers and production and this is nothing but bad news for the manufacturing sector in Ontario.

Let's face it Canada exports next to zero manufactured goods to Asia/Pacific and the overwhelming export is commodities. Now even less of the auto parts will have to be manufactured in Canada {read Ontario} and this will see the end of supply side dairy production in Quebec. This is a net loss for the two largest provinces so I can't imagine it going over well.

Ontario has already lost 400,000 well paying manufacturing jobs especially in the crucial auto sector as those jobs have moved to Mexico and other low wage districts so how this will be spun as anything but accelerating that loss will be a very hard sell.

All parties are promising the same though with only minor adjustments, so I can't see it being a huge issue.

[DizzyEdge]

Why I probably won't vote for Harper, to a T

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/the-closing-of-the-canadian-mind.html?_r=2

[flar]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Why I probably won't vote for Harper, to a T

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/the-closing-of-the-canadian-mind.html?_r=2

That's a good article, I think I might have posted it a few weeks ago.

Definitely worth reading if you haven't.

[geotag277]

My biggest problem with Harper is probably all the pages he took out of the Neo-Con Dick Cheney style playbook, from borderline insane military brandishing to the politics of divisiveness evident in the Niqab issue.

It will feel good to send a strong signal to attempt to vote out these political institutions, but we have to remember two things.

First, these political institutions still appeal to more than 1/3 of Canadians. It may be an incidental fact that this particular government is voted out this time, but that does nothing to solve the fact many of our neighbours and acquaintances still hold these positions strongly and are waiting in the wings. Open *RATIONAL* calm dialogue with each other would go a long way to ensuring that as Canadians we can work together to better understand each other's points of view, and only when we can do that as a population will we be able to expect our politicians to do the same with each other and work together.

Second, every time we vote out political institutions we don't like, we tend to invite back in old political institutions that we voted out last time which start to rear their ugly head again. I see shades of the old Liberal party in Trudeau and there are elements to his platform which we as Canadians summarily rejected in Paul Martin. In our hurry to give one particular way of thinking the boot, let's not forget to hold everybody accountable. Criticism is important for keeping our leaders honest and ensuring we are holding the ones who we elect accountable.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

The Conservatives actually paid for large campaign signs for the Ontarian reality star they're running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Saw one this morning that was defaced with simply: "WTF?" Cute.

Defacing campaign signs is not acceptable. Even in that particular case.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Migs

Trudeau is in full on class warfare mode right now. Its really quite unbelievable. On one hand he talks about Canada being a compassionate, inclusive people. On the other hand, he is going to get those rich b@stards.

No, there is no "class warfare" in Canada. What he is doing is asking the wealthiest among us to pitch in a bit more, something many are willing to do.

To whom much is given, much is expected.

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

No, there is no "class warfare" in Canada. What he is doing is asking the wealthiest among us to pitch in a bit more, something many are willing to do.

To whom much is given, much is expected.

Of course there is class warfare in Canada. What do you think targeting the abstract group of 1% really is? It's the oldest political opportunistic move in the book. Go after the nameless faceless fat cats who are living the high life and robbing YOU of YOUR opportunity!

It would be less intellectually dishonest if Trudeau actually acknowledged his own party's policy mistakes, instead of pretending the entire thing is Harper's fault:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/c...tion-why-more-growth-means-less-equality

I think the debate over moving a couple of income brackets around by a couple of percentages is pretty vapid anyway. The top echelons of income earners are very good at moving money around in such a way to pay minimal tax. Increase one tax here they'll move it over there in this way.

Also, if we all admit we aren't paying enough for the services we need, I think it would be more intellectually honest to say we should ALL make sacrifices towards funding those services, not the nameless faceless evil fat cat %1 aren't paying their share (when in fact they pay the majority of tax obligations).

Saying only the top 1% should pay more and blaming them for not paying their fair share and not giving the rest of us access to high quality services is disingenuous and is adding fuel to class warfare fire.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Why I probably won't vote for Harper, to a T

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/the-closing-of-the-canadian-mind.html?_r=2

There are LOTS of reasons to not vote for Harper, however what you linked to is a personal opinion piece penned by a prolific TORONTO based writer who has it out for non-"Left" politics.

Stephane Marche is a great writer and uses his skills to blast the politics of those he does not agree with. Nothing wrong with that. But again, what you point to is a NOT fact based assessment of Harpo, but rather one person's opinion.

And just to counter, here is another personal opinion published shortly after that debunks all of Stephane's points - especially the debate accusation as Harpo did 5 debates instead of the 2 Stephane was so upset about.


Definitely exercise your right to vote, but do so from a position of knowledge, not by being influenced by the opinion of skilled author. Or as Bond would say, " A cunning linguist."

[flar]

Originally Posted by shreddog

There are LOTS of reasons to not vote for Harper, however what you linked to is a personal opinion piece penned by a prolific TORONTO based writer who has it out for non-"Left" politics.

Stephane Marche is a great writer and uses his skills to blast the politics of those he does not agree with. Nothing wrong with that. But again, what you point to is a NOT fact based assessment of Harpo, but rather one person's opinion.

And just to counter, here is another personal opinion published shortly after that debunks all of Stephane's points - especially the debate accusation as Harpo did 5 debates instead of the 2 Stephane was so upset about.


Definitely exercise your right to vote, but do so from a position of knowledge, not by being influenced by the opinion of skilled author. Or as Bond would say, " A cunning linguist."

The rebuttal is from David "Axis of Evil" Frum, who is one of the most partisan and ideological writers out there. I don't think Frum debunks anything, he mostly attacks the author of the first article, and counters Marche's assertions with a couple sentences of loosely-connected examples. Very weak.

[rousseau]

Heh heh...counter a thoughtful opinion piece with a bizarre screed by far-right neocon David Frum? Nice one.

Among the many disgusting things perpetrated by Harper, the war against science is the most egregious. Gagging scientists and destroying data are unforgivable acts that should outrage everyone in this country, but Frum glosses over that, of course.

Frum is a predictable right-wing stooge. He was a speechwriter for arguably the worst president in the U.S.'s history, George W Bush. He willingly wrote speeches for George W Bush! This definitely takes him out of the "sane-people-with-opinions-worth-considering" pool.

[DizzyEdge]

I've seen David From on Bill Maher's "Real Time" before. He tends to be called out on BS he's said, and then avoids directly responding. Constantly. He occasionally has good points though.

[Migs]

So Trudeau wants to spy on Canadians. Oh how I love irony.

https://bcblue.wordpress.com/2015/10/06/...ying-on-canadians-media-party-go-silent/