DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[TakeFive]

Easy Like Sunday Morning

Over Here, Over There

Courtesy of youthab

One of the local multi-family "experts" is James Real Estate Services, Inc. Their 2nd Quarter Report (pdf) is quite interesting and comprehensive. Worth a read but here's a few bullet points:

• For purposes of vacancy rates, net absorption and rental rates we use data supplied quarterly by the Apartment Association of Metro Denver. We have concerns about some of the methodology used in the report, so it is best for readers to consider trends instead of the AAMD report’s actual numbers.
• For development activity, however, construction starts and completions are based on actual quarterly visits by James Real Estate Services, Inc. staff to the locations of every apartment community of fifty units or more under construction or proposed in metro Denver.
• In reality, we believe that the metro Denver vacancy rate is more accurately in the 6% to 7% range rather than the AAMD estimated 4.9%. Our estimate, however, is still in what is normally considered a “balanced” market range of 5% to 7%, although trending upward.

This one is especially noteworthy.

The potential exists for a softening market in 2015 and 2016 when many of the projects currently under construction come onto the market. During 2014 developers completed construction on projects adding 8,236 units to the market. With 19,917 apartment units under construction in metro Denver at the end of the 2md quarter of 2015 and another 20,617 proposed, we see a strong possibility for deteriorating market conditions during 2015 and 2016.

Furthermore, if employment growth is actually slowing, as reported above, apartment market conditions could deteriorate rather quickly. Demand has been strong in metro Denver. If the metro area’s economy is actually expanding at a slower rate that situation could combine with overbuilding to soften the market, especially in 2016

On page 14 of the pdf JRES has a long list of the projects currently under construction. On page 20 starts a long list of projects that are proposed.

It's worth pointing out that early in 2014 JRES was certain Denver would be awash in apartment vacancy by the end of that year. Oops

It does seem that many developers are now focusing on suburban locations. Many, I assume, figure they're too late to the downtown party and/or are on the outside looking in for any number of reasons. The over 20,000 apartments proposed don't even include the recent announcement of over 800 units in Aurora.

Many of the proposed suburban projects are transit motivated and I suspect there are many more in planning that aren't yet disclosed. I would think that in most cases lenders would be attracted to suburban projects given the overall tightness of the metro market and the high cost of living downtown.

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.denverpost.com/news/local/ci_...et-downtown-area-with-new-lightrail-line

[blm3034L!fe]

I just realized OKC has a new building standing at 257 meters. Yet Denver still looking like 1982 when the fuck are we going to get a new tallest/signature tower.

I mean come on OKC? Seriously.

[mhays]

Apartment market analysts have been underestimating this boom since it started. Maybe they're learning, and maybe that's incorporated into the numbers. But that's far from clear.

They tend to look at job growth, population growth, whether the mortgage situation will let people buy vs. rent, etc. But they tend to downplay societal shifts in preference for urban locations (for that part of the market) and renting vs. buying (regardless of location).

[BG918]

Originally Posted by blm3034L!fe

I just realized OKC has a new building standing at 257 meters. Yet Denver still looking like 1982 when the fuck are we going to get a new tallest/signature tower.

I mean come on OKC? Seriously.

Fortune 500 company Devon Energy built that tower in OKC to consolidate its employees in a showcase global HQ. Denver doesn't have a company HQ with the same ambition at this time, or they are already located in sprawling suburban campuses.

As an aside 1144 15th that is under construction will be the 4th tallest building in Denver when complete in 2017. It will be a signature, skyline changing tower just not a new tallest. And it's entirely spec office space.

[Scottk]

Originally Posted by BG918

Fortune 500 company Devon Energy built that tower in OKC to consolidate its employees in a showcase global HQ. Denver doesn't have a company HQ with the same ambition at this time, or they are already located in sprawling suburban campuses.

As an aside 1144 15th that is under construction will be the 4th tallest building in Denver when complete in 2017. It will be a signature, skyline changing tower just not a new tallest. And it's entirely spec office space.

He doesn't care, he just wants to know when Denver will get a NEW TALLEST TOWER, before dipping out from this forum for another 6 months.




Did anyone else see that opinion piece in the Denver Post today about 16th street mall?? The author thinks that a monorail is the best solution for the 16th street mall.

wtf is dat?

[Cirrus]

Monorails are stupid. You get light rail capacity for metro rail cost, and you have absolutely no flexibility.

Here's why they're dumb: Monorails are, by definition, 100% elevated. That's OK if the line you're planning is going to be 100% elevated anyway, but if you want to put any of it on the surface (you know, like regular tracks) then too bad, you have to pay the cost of elevating it anyway.



And it doesn't connect to other modes. Build a light rail or bus subway and you can run regional routes through it. Build a monorail and you force a transfer.

And you know what's even more visually intrusive than some buses? A giant elevated structure, that's what. Somehow, I don't think that's what the people who want to get rid of buses have in mind.

There's a reason you generally only ever see monorails as recreational transit (ie Disney, Vegas, and museum shuttles). It's too inflexible a technology for real urban use.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by Denver Dweller

http://www.denverpost.com/news/local/ci_...et-downtown-area-with-new-lightrail-line

Some laughable quotes in that article.

Apparently this is what passes for "not surburban" in Aurora these days

"This is not a suburban area," Callison said. "... It's changing and it will continue to change, continue becoming more of a city center than it is today. It's different from a suburban line and much different from the west corridor."

Maybe they want to change this, which is admirable, but this area is basically the definition of suburban. I really do think if they are committed they could very well make this the new downtown Aurora, and *could* do some pretty great things here, but knowing their previous track record I have my doubts this will be anything more than a glorified town center..

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Monorails are stupid. You get light rail capacity for metro rail cost, and you have absolutely no flexibility. .

You're wasting your breath. You seem to expect rational educated discourse on transportation planning issues in Denver. That's so ten years ago. We've gotten "progressively" dumber (ha).

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

You're wasting your breath. You seem to expect rational educated discourse on transportation planning issues in Denver. That's so ten years ago. We've gotten "progressively" dumber (ha).

But they can connect it to the future mountain monorail in one continuous line!

[Curtis Park]

I recently heard that Rocky Mountain PBS, (Channel 6) is building a new studio in Arapahoe Square. It will take up both side of the alley on 21st between Lawrence and Arapahoe, stretching almost all the way to 22nd. The current Paris Hotel Building and the buiding across the alley from it will be staying. The brick barrel top buildings as well as the 12 town homes are coming down. Their plan includes new studios, an auditorium, and a studio for KUVO that looks out onto the corner if 21st and Arapahoe. In addition, they are planning on about 15(?) stories of affordable housing and a possible partnership with Denver Expeditionary School.
No drawings yet since they are still very early in the planning stages.
The state currently owns most of the land and will swap it for the site that is currently used by RMPBS in the Golden Triangle. The rest of the land is being purchased.

[TakeFive]

EngiNerd... Aurora developed out with quite a lot of density, but low-rise density. Especially in some areas, they do have a lot of townhome development of various types and styles. At the time it was criticized for being too dense as a growing suburb.

Aurora is very much a tale of two cities. The southerly part that lies in Cherry Creek School District has always been the favored area and has driven property values. It's not unlike Stapleton in that regard.

As for the so-called City Center I have no idea how they should even try to execute on that vision. I suspect a Belmar style development is their ceiling generally so I'd agree with you.

[CharlesCO]

Oh my god, in the op-ed, they interviewed someone from that kook monorail enthusiast website as a "source." Honestly, almost anybody on here (and I mean anybody) would be a more relevant and credible source about what to do with the 16th Street Mall than those freaks.

Pedersen, though, is biased. He even built a monorail in his backyard.

"I am a monorailist," he said. "A lot of kids grow up crazy about trains. I grew up crazy about monorails. I got convinced these were the trains of the future when Walt Disney told me."

http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_28911838/meyer:-why-not-monorail-for-denvers-16th-street-mall

I can't decide what's dumber: building a monorail down 16th Street, or that movement several years ago to build a monorail up the mountains...

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.crej.com/blog/granite-to-build-300,000-sf-spec-office-building-

[RyanD]

^ That's a large building NOT downtown and we all think sprawl is coming to an end... Lol.

So I finally got done moving and I keep getting reminded of how suburban and sprawled Denver really is... Got a place off of Alameda and Monaco (Glendale didn't work out) and for only being ~6 miles from Downtown, there is dismal transit from where I live, and a whole lotta nothing!. Yay!

[Robert.hampton]

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28924843/denver-police-seek-man-wanted-16th-street-mall

16th street mall in the news again for all the wrong reasons.



On another note I heard a rumor that the owner of the car wash at 17th and washington (the same guy that owns Famous Daves BBQ) is looking for a buyer of that property. Would be nice to see some mixed use go in there along 17th.

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by Curtis Park

I recently heard that Rocky Mountain PBS, (Channel 6) is building a new studio in Arapahoe Square. It will take up both side of the alley on 21st between Lawrence and Arapahoe, stretching almost all the way to 22nd. The current Paris Hotel Building and the buiding across the alley from it will be staying. The brick barrel top buildings as well as the 12 town homes are coming down. Their plan includes new studios, an auditorium, and a studio for KUVO that looks out onto the corner if 21st and Arapahoe. In addition, they are planning on about 15(?) stories of affordable housing and a possible partnership with Denver Expeditionary School.
No drawings yet since they are still very early in the planning stages.
The state currently owns most of the land and will swap it for the site that is currently used by RMPBS in the Golden Triangle. The rest of the land is being purchased.

Good info man! Thanks

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by RyanD

^ That's a large building NOT downtown and we all think sprawl is coming to an end... Lol.

These things don't end overnight, or ever really. Right now there is far more development centered in the city, and that's a really good thing. It's a process.

[J21bird]

In regards to the Denver Post Downtown Aurora article:

I understand that City of Aurora representatives want to promote Aurora in the best possible way, but they are espousing phrasing that is not based in reality. Framing these messages in this way will not set City Representatives, the citizens, or the brand that is the City of Aurora up for success.

These hollow affectations only erode Aurora's credibility which is too bad.

I saw several people on social media today sharing the DP article with wording that lampooned the quotes in the article.

Can the area around Alameda/Sable/Chambers become more urban through thoughtful and strategic planning? Absolutely, but it will take time and many incremental improvements, and not polished prepared quotes from City representatives.

http://denverurbanreview.com/

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by Denver Dweller

http://www.crej.com/blog/granite-to-build-300,000-sf-spec-office-building-

10 stories will change the skyline? lol! Not really.