Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
Yes indeed. The head dude of Léger, Jean-Marc Léger, was on the news last night saying "wait till you see my latest poll tomorrrow!" The host couldn't get him to give up the goods.
NDP down by 10 points in Quebec. Astonishing.
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Well, they really asked for it with their firm pro-niqab position... I saw this coming as soon as the issue began to surface. Not surprising at all.
They're actually lucky they still have support in the high 20s% here (which is still very decent in a FPTP system with four major parties) because it could easily continue to fall.
The Bloc will likely reap most of these voters (who are mostly ex-NPD, ex-ex-Bloc voters). If the two parties trade a few more percentage points (leaked from the NDP back to the Bloc) then we'll be at the point where we'll see a major shift in FPTP ridings won. Could happen.
As the political analyst in the JdM was saying this morning, in Anglo-Allo ridings this general crumbling of the NDP will produce a shift to the LPC as well (this time, not niqab-driven, just driven by the fall of one of the two semi-equivalent centerleft federalist parties... so indirectly niqab-driven.)
It might drive the LPC up country-wide by a noticeable fraction of a point, but it won't give them much more in terms of ridings in Quebec. (Might help the centerleft coalesce around them in other places, though.)
The reason the NDP is losing support in Quebec is the very same reason the LPC won't pick up those disgruntled leaving the NDP... the Bloc and Conservatives are the only parties with a position that could satisfy them.