Canada Election 2015

[travis3000]

New FORUM poll done Sep 28-29th shows Liberals back to 3rd place, winning only 70 seats in Parliament. NDP is second with 100+ seats, and the Conservatives take a minority with 150 seats, winning 34% of the vote, a six point lead over the NDP who are polling 28%. The Liberals are at 27%. IN Quebec this poll has the Conservatives moving into the #2 spot at 24%.

NANOS from this morning shows the Conservatives taking a 1 point lead over the Liberals with the NDP back in third at 26%.

EKOS coming out tomorrow with data showing the Conservatives in #1 as well with a clear 6 point lead.

Like I predicted multiple times, as we get into October the landscape is shifting to the Conservatives favour. I fully expect the Tories will win government with a strong minority mandate (150 to 160 seats). And there's even potential of them hitting a weak majority government if this trend continues.

--

As I've stated, as long as the NDP and Liberals are two different parties.... Canada will have the Tories as their natural governing party. With a consolidated right and a split left, the conditions are reversed from the 90's and early 00's where the right was split allowing Liberals to dominate Ontario. I really think the NDP and Liberals need to merge if they ever want to start ruling the country for an extended period of time.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I know you're smarter than that. How can every single Conservative candidate country wide not show up for all candidates debates? That's not only improbable it's impossible. This is a gag order from the PMO and you know it.

The local conservative candidates/incumbents have declined all debates here in the London-area ridings.

Even a progressive, sophisticated and multicultural city like Toronto can elect an ignoramus buffoon like Rob Ford. The angry, scared, selfish (or greedy) and xenophobic folk are legion across the country, and they form the backbone of conservative support.

[flar]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The local conservative candidates/incumbents have declined all debates here in the London-area ridings.

Even a progressive, sophisticated and multicultural city like Toronto can elect an ignoramus buffoon like Rob Ford. The angry, scared, selfish (or greedy) and xenophobic folk are legion across the country, and they form the backbone of conservative support.

The good old silent majority (or at least 30%)

[Aylmer]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Like I predicted multiple times, as we get into October the landscape is shifting to the Conservatives favour. I fully expect the Tories will win government with a strong minority mandate (150 to 160 seats). And there's even potential of them hitting a weak majority government if this trend continues.

But the situation is almost certain to change with the significant ABC vote. I see trends in electoral intent much less as independent curves than interdependent functions. Nothing happens in isolation.

I believe that we'll be seeing a much different picture in a week.

[flar]

Originally Posted by lio45

What if... the party names weren't on the ballot, just the candidates' names, and they also were legally prevented from identifying publicly with any party, putting up non-neutral signs (just their name and face and a few of their ideas, no color or anything that could link them up directly with a party), etc.?

There could be a few riding-level debates with every candidate taking their own personal positions (from which you probably could deduce their party, but again, forbidden for the LPC guy to be wearing a red tie and the CPC guy a blue one)...

I'd suppose that much less people would pay enough attention to know who they want to vote for, so the net results would be that 1) the people would really be voting for a MP to represent them, first and foremost, and 2) only people somewhat interested in politics would be able to cast a vote. (People choosing at random among a bunch of first names matched with last names would approximately produce only statistical noise, they generally wouldn't be the ones with the power to decide the outcome of the riding since their votes would be pretty much spread all over.)

Edit: would kinda be like voting for a mayor (unless your city has a strong party system?), except you're voting for your MP.

Because some group has to form a government and table a budget, there has to be a larger platform, so parties are necessary. I just think there should be more balance. MPs need to broadly support their party's platform, but they also need to represent their constituents' interests in Parliament. I don't think there is much emphasis on the latter, backbenchers are simply a party vote in Parliament. Too many omnibus bills, not enough private members bills, and virtually no debate on any of it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

But the situation is almost certain to change with the significant ABC vote. I see trends in electoral intent much less as independent curves than interdependent functions. Nothing happens in isolation.

I believe that we'll be seeing a much different picture in a week.

Boy do I wish I was in a position to vote strategically. My riding is super-safe NDP.

[flar]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

But the situation is almost certain to change with the significant ABC vote. I see trends in electoral intent much less as independent curves than interdependent functions. Nothing happens in isolation.

I believe that we'll be seeing a much different picture in a week.

If ABC happens, it will happen around the Liberals. I predicted earlier that casual support would coalesce around the Liberals, but so far we've only seen a bit of that. Right now, more of the undecideds and casual voters are coalescing around the Conservatives (with no good options, go with the status quo).

Unfortunately, it's the same old story. JT isn't perceived as PM material by a lot of people. If the leader were someone more seasoned and broadly appealing, we'd be looking at an easy Liberal majority.

But it is JT, so the Liberals need to score a knock-out punch about a week before the election.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by flar

Because some group has to form a government and table a budget, there has to be a larger platform, so parties are necessary. I just think there should be more balance. MPs need to broadly support their party's platform, but they also need to represent their constituents' interests in Parliament. I don't think there is much emphasis on the latter, backbenchers are simply a party vote in Parliament. Too many omnibus bills, not enough private members bills, and virtually no debate on any of it.

I agree 100%.

There needs to be more independence amongst backbenchers, and the whip should only really be cracked on important legislation, and on confidence motions.

[Spliff]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The local conservative candidates/incumbents have declined all debates here in the London-area ridings.

Even a progressive, sophisticated and multicultural city like Toronto can elect an ignoramus buffoon like Rob Ford. The angry, scared, selfish (or greedy) and xenophobic folk are legion across the country, and they form the backbone of conservative support.

My mother is a well educated, generous, tolerant, well-travelled person, who has lived in Montreal, New York and Vancouver. She is the furthest thing from a "angry, scared, selfish, greedy, xenophobic" person...and she will vote conservative this election.

Perhaps MolsonExport, you actually embody the traits that you profess to hate.

[travis3000]

My home riding (Simcoe Grey) is going to go Conservative, it's a shame because I know my Liberal vote won't be contributing to anything. This riding has always been Conservative and only went Liberal when the PC's and Reform were split. Ever since 2004 it's been Tory and this election will be no different, even with a popular and well known Liberal candidate. I'm expecting that in my riding the Cons will get 50% of the vote, Liberals around 30%, 12% to the NDP, and 6% for the Greens, and 2% to other parties.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Spliff

My mother is a well educated, generous, tolerant, well-travelled person, who has lived in Montreal, New York and Vancouver. She is the furthest thing from a "angry, scared, selfish, greedy, xenophobic" person...and she will vote conservative this election.

Perhaps MolsonExport, you actually embody the traits that you profess to hate.

Well said. One of the most off-putting features amongst so called progressives is their tendency to character assassinate those of us who might be more conservative in our viewpoints.

Just because we might be traditionalist doesn't mean that we are intolerant. We might even embrace change, but it must be well thought out change, and change for a good reason. Change merely for changes sake can be unnecessarily disruptive and a fool's errand......

The status quo occasionally is the best option.......

[Migs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The local conservative candidates/incumbents have declined all debates here in the London-area ridings.

Even a progressive, sophisticated and multicultural city like Toronto can elect an ignoramus buffoon like Rob Ford. The angry, scared, selfish (or greedy) and xenophobic folk are legion across the country, and they form the backbone of conservative support.

Actually you just described Justin Trudeau to a tee. He's still saying the opposite of the truth regarding the economy trying to scare the simpleminded into believing the economy as a whole is failing. I believe he calls it the politics of fear. I just love how he keeps getting caught off guard when the numbers come out.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The local conservative candidates/incumbents have declined all debates here in the London-area ridings.

Even a progressive, sophisticated and multicultural city like Toronto can elect an ignoramus buffoon like Rob Ford. The angry, scared, selfish (or greedy) and xenophobic folk are legion across the country, and they form the backbone of conservative support.

Ontario is quite odd indeed, first Rob Ford now Wynne. Yikes.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Spliff

My mother is a well educated, generous, tolerant, well-travelled person, who has lived in Montreal, New York and Vancouver. She is the furthest thing from a "angry, scared, selfish, greedy, xenophobic" person...and she will vote conservative this election.

Perhaps MolsonExport, you actually embody the traits that you profess to hate.

In my experience, I've certainly encountered people whose intrinsic nature seemed incompatible with things they supported. Generally it was either that the impression the person gives during face to face interactions isn't totally representative of their true character and is masked by things like decorum, politeness, and diplomacy (which can make a person seem very nice!) or they've made an error in policy in the sense that they support something that isn't actually compatible with their values.

In fact, some people don't even properly analyze or research the different options for things like elections. I've encountered many one issue voters (like my aunt who emphatically declared "I will never support X party because [local candidate] did nothing to stop [local institution] from relocating and laying everybody off!" as well as emotion voters who like someone because they "seem approachable" or "has an honest face" or "my friend went to school with his daughter and says they're good people". So I agree that these mismatches can definitely happen.

[Migs]

Originally Posted by Spliff

My mother is a well educated, generous, tolerant, well-travelled person, who has lived in Montreal, New York and Vancouver. She is the furthest thing from a "angry, scared, selfish, greedy, xenophobic" person...and she will vote conservative this election.

Perhaps MolsonExport, you actually embody the traits that you profess to hate.

No kidding. The funny thing is that the left are in fact the people they themselves hate the most. Al Gore & David Suzuki preach against capitalism, both are millionaires with multiple homes. Trudeau speaks out against the privileged, comes with huge trust fund & charges thousands (including universities) in speaking fees. Mulcair preaches about protecting the environment at all costs, jets all over the country & leaves his tour buses idling for hours while not in use. Etc etc etc

I'm curious if Trudeau has actually figured out yet what the middle class is.

[Kitchissippi]

Kind of like how Harper prefaces his entry with "Laureen and I..." and she doesn't even live with him any more.

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by CCF

This country needs electoral reform....badly.

If Harper somehow wins a Majority with let's say 37% of the vote than we have a problem with our democracy.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Kind of like how Harper prefaces his entry with "Laureen and I..." and she doesn't even live with him any more.

Or when he claims Conservatives don't run deficits and are good stewards of the economy...

[kiwi]

Anyone know what the topic of the French-language debate on Friday will be?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kiwi

Anyone know what the topic of the French-language debate on Friday will be?

Sounds pretty general:

L'économie et les finances publiques, la sécurité et le Canada dans le monde ainsi que les politiques sociales et la gouvernance sont les trois thèmes qui seront au cœur des échanges